NG week of 6/17/19
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Started by WxFollower - June 16, 2019, 5:53 p.m.

CDD comparisons 12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri: a slight loss averaged out


GEFS -4

EPS   -1

 

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By metmike - June 16, 2019, 9:33 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!


Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, is increasing now seasonally and will be the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days)


Sunday Weather:  Temperatures warming up to a bit above average. Heat in the south. Potential heat ridge building in week 2  but where?  More unwanted rains this week but they could shut down in week 2 under the heat ridge  or at the very least back off closer to average.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32642/


Tuesday Weather: More rains the next week but a pattern change in week 2 with the heat backing up west and heavy rains shifting(easing up in the wet areas). If the heat ridge builds farther west, is would lead to more cooling in the East/Southeast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32766/


Wednesday Weather: Same as yesterday. Drying out week 2. Heat shifting to N.Plains.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32845/


Thursday Weather: New pattern week 2. Heat backs up to the Plains. Heavy rain threats drop but a bit more rain than yesterday.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32922/


Friday Weather: New pattern starts develops next week. Heat shifts to the Plains. Heavy rains ease up but rains don't completely end.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/32989/


Sunday Weather: No changes

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/33096/


By metmike - June 16, 2019, 9:48 p.m.
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By metmike - June 16, 2019, 9:53 p.m.
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Look for the big injections to continue..........depending on the weather.  We've quickly gone from a deficit vs 2018 to a growing surplus. Next up, a surplus vs the 5 year average which will happen  later this year.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,088 Bcf as of Friday, June 7, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 102 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 189 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 230 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,318 Bcf. At 2,088 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - June 16, 2019, 9:54 p.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 7, 2019   |  Released: June 13, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 20, 2019 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        +102 BCF  (not as bearish as expected?)                                                                                                                                                                                                            NGI:      EIA Reports Low-End, Triple-Digit Natural Gas Storage Build                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/07/18)
5-year average
(2014-18) 
Region06/07/1905/31/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East440  414  26  26   373  18.0  456  -3.5  
Midwest469  436  33  33   368  27.4  502  -6.6  
Mountain111  101  10  10   124  -10.5  147  -24.5  
Pacific227  213  14  14   238  -4.6  270  -15.9  
South Central842  821  21  21   796  5.8  942  -10.6  
   Salt256  256  0  0   251  2.0  286  -10.5  
   Nonsalt586  565  21  21   544  7.7  656  -10.7  
Total2,088  1,986  102  102   1,899  10.0  2,318  -9.9  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
By metmike - June 16, 2019, 11:03 p.m.
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My computer got hit by lightning earlier today. It Worked briefly and died for good while on this thread, so posts will not have links, graphs or data until the power supply is replaced......which will hopefully fix it  Monday late afternoon.

By WxFollower - June 18, 2019, 4:53 p.m.
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It looks to me that NG was down this morning on a slightly cooler late week 2 in the E US.

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 5:04 p.m.
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That's how I see it too Larry. Looks like the upper level ridge might shift farther west and allow for some cooling in the East longer term. I noted the European model 30 day model was very cool also with a big upper level ridge out West. 

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:01 p.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386


                                                            Latest Release Jun 13, 2019 Actual102B  Forecast109B    Previous119B

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 20, 2019 10:30  102B
Jun 13, 2019 10:30102B109B119B
Jun 06, 2019 10:30119B111B114B
May 30, 2019 10:30114B101B100B
May 23, 2019 10:30100B104B106B
May 16, 2019 10:30106B104B85B
By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:03 p.m.
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Temperatures used for the last report. It's the 7 day period ending June 7.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20190607.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:05 p.m.
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Temperatures for the next EIA storage report released this Thursday at 9:30am...........very cool`! Another huge injection!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20190614.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:09 p.m.
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Record late season withdrawals last April......2018 have only made the big injections that much more bearish on the year to year comparisions. So we have experienced something that's extraordinarily rare in the month of April-new lows(maybe has happened only once during the last 2 decades).

We also erased the long lived storage deficit vs the previous year and turned it into a surplus on our way to a surplus vs the 5 year average later this year.

Looking at the chart below, you can see the nice bounce during May from expectations of the intense heat in the Southeast, causing some record cooling demand for May in that region.  

Not enough intense heat coming up and very bearish EIA numbers have us in contract low territory.  The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts this week, thru the rest of the Summer. As long as there is no extreme heat in the forecast, natural gas can continue lower.  

NG 7 days

https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?module=chartImage&rawOutput=1&symbol=NG*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1549311628&endDate=1549916428


Natural gas 3 months below

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:10 p.m.
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This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June. This years extraordinary, contra seasonal plunge lower has been the result of super duper, huge, injections...records by a wide margin........ that have provided numerous bearish surprises and crushed prices. Cash prices during this period have been below $2 at times.   We are getting close to a time frame when ng seasonals become very negative, from around mid June thru August.

A cool Summer, with currently bearish fundamentals/huge supplies could add to the seasonal pressure. WIdespread, intense heat can give us a good bounce.



Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart

By metmike - June 18, 2019, 6:11 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence after the close on Tuesday:


Uncertainty on Looming Heat Behind Natural Gas Futures Sell-Off; Cash Pulls Back

     5:01 PM    

A notable decline in natural gas production did nothing to deter bears who took back control of the market on Tuesday. With weather models remaining at odds over the intensity and duration of an expected heat wave later this month, the July Nymex gas futures contract fell 5.8 cents to settle at $2.328. August dropped 6.2 cents to $2.311

By metmike - June 19, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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By metmike - June 19, 2019, 5:42 p.m.
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NGI after the close on Wednesday:


Natural Gas Traders Eye 100 Bcf Storage Build, Send Futures to New Low

     5:04 PM    

Natural gas futures continued to slide on Wednesday as weather models, while converging, failed to trend much warmer for the end of June/early July period. With another 100 Bcf-plus storage injection expected on Thursday, the July Nymex gas futures contract fell 5.2 cents to $2.276/MMBtu. August slipped 4.8 cents to $2.263.

By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:50 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence:

EIA Reports 115 Bcf Storage Build, Drops Mic on Natural Gas Futures

      

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending June 14, 2019   |  Released: June 20, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 27, 2019 

                                      +115 bcf-mega bearish                                                                                                                          

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(06/14/18)
5-year average
(2014-18) 
Region06/14/1906/07/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East472  440  32  32   402  17.4  484  -2.5  
Midwest503  469  34  34   397  26.7  530  -5.1  
Mountain118  111  7  7   127  -7.1  151  -21.9  
Pacific234  227  7  7   245  -4.5  277  -15.5  
South Central875  842  33  33   824  6.2  960  -8.9  
   Salt264  256  8  8   257  2.7  288  -8.3  
   Nonsalt612  586  26  26   567  7.9  671  -8.8  
Total2,203  2,088  115  115   1,994  10.5  2,402  -8.3  
By metmike - June 20, 2019, 3:52 p.m.
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https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386


Latest Release   Jun 20, 2019   Actual115B   Forecast107B     Previous102B

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jun 27, 2019 10:30   
Jun 20, 2019 10:30115B107B102B
Jun 13, 2019 10:30102B109B119B
Jun 06, 2019 10:30119B111B114B
May 30, 2019 10:30114B101B100B
May 23, 2019 10:30100B104B106B

                                                                                                          







By metmike - June 20, 2019, 6:55 p.m.
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From Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Thursday:

New Day, New Low as Natural Gas Futures Crumble After Storage Data; Cash Slips Too

By metmike - June 21, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:34 p.m.
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Sun wx updated