Weather Sunday
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Started by metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:29 a.m.

Hello June 23rd!......time ticks by faster and faster!!!   Do something to make somebody feel lucky today!  Then, after observing the positive results,  make a good habit out of it!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   

 Rain chances have already shifted as the long advertised BIG pattern change has started.  Rains this week will not completely end....... a bit above average still in some places but many water logged spots will be drying out.

Heat ridge builds much farther west into the N.Plains. First heat wave of the year for N.Plains/Upper Midwest.  
This pattern is much different than anything that we've seen for a very long time.

Will the heat ridge continue to retrograde west late in week 2 into the Rockies like some models or will it try to move back southeast to the long lived position much of this year.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:37 a.m.
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Hot in the south, warming north. Chilly Rockies.

Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades. 


By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Cool Northwest.  Very warm to hot elsewhere.  Heat shifts to the N.Plains for the first time in 2019.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:44 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below

Cool Northwest.  Very warm to hot eastern half.  Northern Plains the hottest compared to average.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

New pattern will be  developing  as the upper level ridging builds in the Plains. This is completely different than anything we've seen for a very long time and it should help to ease the intensity of the rains. 

There will still be a meandering, becoming more northwest to southeast orientated front with time, that serves as a boundary for  east/southeast moving clusters of T-showers. 

Area with best rain chances will shift too.... more northwest of the recently wettest locations.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:55 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Pattern is about to change!!  Rains will ease up in the wettest spots this week and shift farther northwest.  Not looking completely dry but the rains will shift to a different location and not be as heavy.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 11:57 a.m.
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Risk of Excessive Rainfall today with the last of last weeks wet pattern.........then easing up this week but not completely dry everywhere.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - June 23, 2019, noon
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Slight risk of severe storms  today and Monday. Then the new pattern.........that will still features some slight risk areas farther north than recent storms but nothing widespread.

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       
By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:02 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

Current Dew Points

Deep moisture Western Gulf States feeding northward into storms today. 

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

East/Southeast Cornbelt is saturated!!!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

East/Southeast Cornbelt very wet again......but will be drying out.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market will be STILL be  keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next 2 weeks.Just the beans now will be getting planted..........too late for corn planting.



Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:12 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Saturday: The heat ridge building continues. How far north will the potential "dome" extend?

Sunday: I've actually waited for this 12z model run below for the update. It shows the building upper level ridging in week 2..........weakening greatly in the Midwest at the end of week 2.  Trough out West and strong jet stream over the top of the heat ridge means more rains, some potentially heavy. 

Monday: computer down. Maps below not updated but the heat ridge today is extremely impressive from the s.rockies to the s.plains to possibly the w.gulf states.

Tuesday: Wide spread with best agreement on the Upper level trough off the West Coast and Upper level ridge around the S.Plains.

Wednesday: This model is much deeper with the magnitude of the upper level trough along the West Coast and has the Upper Level Ridge downstream much farther east. This particular solution would be wetter in the middle and hotter farther east than some of the other models.......but we have a wide spread and uncertainty.

Thursday: Trough along or just off the West Coast, upper level ridge downstream around the Rockies/Plains. Much warmer midsection than anything we've seen in a long time. Heavy rains easing up.

Friday: Upper level trough along the West Coast on the mean with downstream upper level ridging..........heat ridge. Most likely in the Plains.........on this model, the S.Plains. 

Sunday:  Upper level trough just off the West Coast. Upper level ridge across much of the country. This model is much warmer across the east than other models with its upper level ridge position late in week 2, which is always the period we cover on this page and the ones below. 

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 08, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:15 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Monday: huge dome from Rockies to plains to w.gulf states. This would cause rains to ease up and shift the heat.

Tuesday: Heat ridge continues to look farther west on this model late week 2..............S.Rockies area, maybe S.Plains.

Wednesday: More ridging Rockies to N.Plains and some troughing in the East would shift the heat west and dry things out in the soggy midsection.

Thursday: Upper level ridge, Plains to Rockies. Much warmer in this area. Not as wet in the Midwest.

Friday: This model has the upper level heat ridge farther northwest vs the Canadian model on some solutions.........but it looks impressive.

Sunday: Pronounced heat ridge in N.Plains tries to retrograde west, to the Rockies and allows more cool, northwest flow downstream into the Midwest/Northeast.......on this model.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Tuesday: Negative anomaly sealed off in the Pac Northwest today with upper level heights rising downstream...........ridge building, so we are warmer in the central US(not as cool as recently) and to the south. Weak negative anomaly MidAtlantic, so maybe some  cool forcing. 

Wednesday: Strong positive anomaly NW Canada to NE Pacific. Growing positive anomaly in the Plains.

Thursday: Growing anomaly from yesterday with a center in the N.Plains to Upper Midwest looks interesting. Could lead to warmer/drier in that region??

Friday: The new positive anomaly in the North/Central US is more than interesting now. Shifted slightly farther east today and advertising some potential heat. 

Saturday: Center of new anomaly has shifted slightly south today. This will be associated with the new heat ridge/potential dome in week 2. 

Sunday: Positive anomaly shifted slightly west. Pretty stout positive anomaly in the Gulf of Alaska. 

Monday: positive anomaly today is south of the Gulf of Alaska and connected to the positive anomaly farther east as heat ridge builds from the Rockies and Plains. This is potentially a much drier pattern for the later periods and shifts the heat westward.

Tuesday: Weak positive anomaly in the Rockies with weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This is much different than recent patterns which would be drier and feature the heat much farther west than it has been. Upper level ridging in the Southeast and and South has been an important link to recent excessive rains that travel around the periphery and feed off the very warm, humid air it pumps up. If that goes do the heavy rains. 

Wednesday: Large area with a weak positive anomaly northwest 2/3rds and weak negative anomoly Southeast suggests heat backing westward and things drying out using the same reasoning as yesterday. 

Thursday: Modest positive anomolies across much of central and western North America. very weak negative in the southeast. Favorable for widespread warmth and not as wet. 

Friday: Positive anomaly in Western North America extending eastward. Widespread warmth, to in some cases hottest temperatures of the year so far. Not a very wet pattern but there will still be rain events. 

Sunday: Positive anomaly here late in week 2 is shifted a bit to the northwest, so the upper level heat ridge could also shift, which MIGHT cause a change downstream with any potential cool intrusions. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:26 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Thursday: Close enough to zero to not be significant here. 

Friday: A0 and NAO close to zero but a negative PNA is favorable for a heat ridge to be building downstream from an upper level trough off the West the middle of the country. 

Saturday: AO and NAO close to zero and PNA a bit negative late in week 2 so this is not a deterent for heat ridge building during week 2. 

Sunday: All close to zero, PNA a tad negative during week 2.

Tuesday: All just below or close to zero. Nothing big, although the PNA is fluctuating in week 2 with the potential pattern change. 

Wednesday: All just below zero and not telling us much. 

Thursday: NAO and AO both below zero by a bit. PNA gyrating wildly on either side of zero.

Friday: Still negative AO and slightly neg. NAO with PNA jumping eradicately above and below zero. 

Sunday: Negative AO, a bit negative NAO with PNA wildly fluctuating during week 2 because its extremely sensitive to  the exact location of the upper level trough and ridge out west and the exact position has uncertainty.  That location will also play a role in the weather downstream for much of the US.




By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:28 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Tues: Heat shifting west, heavy rains easing up/shifting as week 2 progresses. 

Wed: Pattern change continues for this period. Heat shifting west to the middle of the country........heavy rains ease up/drying out. 

Thursday: Same pattern change. Heat shifts west into the Plains. Heavy rains ease up but there is still some rain. 

Friday: Same forecast philosophy.  Heat centered  in the N.Plains, heavy rains ease up but not completely dry. 

Sunday: Same theme but potential changs late in week 2 in the location of the N.Plains heat ridge.....shifting farther northwest??

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:28 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat ends with the new pattern in week 2.  Partly because clusters of t-storms will be moving pretty fast and not sitting over the same spots.



Potential for excessive heat in week 2.

By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
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Low skill and from Friday.

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 06 Jul 2019 to 19 Jul 2019
Updated: 21 Jun 2019

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - June 23, 2019, 12:39 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  24h24 hours ago              




Not what the late-planted corn and soybean crops needed over the past 12 days...