Natural Gas week of May 20, 2019
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Started by metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:28 p.m.

Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, is increasing now seasonally and will be the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days):

Sunday Weather: Tenacious Heat Ridge in the Southeast this week rules

Monday Weather: Heat ridge this week but changes down the road.........maybe

Tuesday Weather: Heat ridge breaks down week 2. Pattern change.......turning less wet in week 2!

Wednesday Weather: Heat ridge obliterated  in week 2............pattern change. Less extreme rains but still wet in week 2 with active northwest flow?

Thursday Weather: Heat ridge fizzle out week 2(less heat there) with pattern change and big ? on temps elsewhere.

Friday Weather: Heat ridge still looks to break down by late next week.

Saturday Weather:

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:29 p.m.
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By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:34 p.m.
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Look for the big injections to continue this Spring............depending on the weather.  We've quickly gone from a deficit vs 2018 to a surplus(for the time in a long while). Next up, a surplus vs the 5 year average which will not happen until later this year, possibly Summer if its cool this year, to accomplish, depending on the weather.


Working gas in storage was 1,653 Bcf as of Friday, May 10, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 106 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 130 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 286 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,939 Bcf. At 1,653 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:35 p.m.
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Last week:

                    Latest Release May 16, 2019 Actual106B  Forecast 104B   Previous 85B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
May 23, 2019 10:30 112B106B
May 16, 2019 10:30106B104B85B
May 09, 2019 10:3085B87B123B
May 02, 2019 10:30123B 92B
Apr 25, 201910:3092B91B92B
Apr 18, 2019 10:3092B87B25B

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 10, 2019   |  Released: May 16, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 23, 2019 

           +106 bcf                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region05/10/1905/03/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East330  299  31  31   270  22.2  342  -3.5  
Midwest336  309  27  27   263  27.8  391  -14.1  
Mountain82  78  4  4   97  -15.5  126  -34.9  
Pacific174  162  12  12   203  -14.3  238  -26.9  
South Central731  699  32  32   689  6.1  842  -13.2  
   Salt240  234  6  6   214  12.1  259  -7.3  
   Nonsalt491  466  25  25   474  3.6  583  -15.8  
Total1,653  1,547  106  106   1,523  8.5  1,939  -14.7  

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:40 p.m.
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These were the 7 day temperatures that were used for last Thursdays EIA weekly storage report.

Very warm in the East. Very chilly in the Plains, especially N.Plains(where not many people live). However, the injection number was still huge at 100+ bcf.

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:43 p.m.
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This is the 7 day period for this next report.   Chilly in the Northeast with some unseasonably late HDD's. Very warm Northwest/N.Rockies.

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:45 p.m.
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By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:50 p.m.
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These natural gas price charts showed a typical seasonal, double  bottom in February............which we violated with gusto last month as we spiked to  new lows from huge storage injections ahead.. 

Record late season withdrawals last April......2018 have only made the big injections that much more bearish on the year to year comparisions. So we have experienced something that's extraordinarily rare in the month of April-new lows(maybe has happened only once during the last 2 decades).

We also erased the long lived storage deficit vs the previous year and turned it into a surplus(but still well below the 5 year average)

As we head into the 4th week of May , you can see the nice bounce on the charts below from expectations of the intense heat in the Southeast, causing some record cooling demand for May in that region.  The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts this week, thru the rest of the Summer.

NG 7 days*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1549311628&endDate=1549916428

Natural gas 3 months below

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:51 p.m.
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By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:54 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Monday:

More Weather-Driven Demand, Lower Production Lifts Natural Gas Futures

     5:16 PM    

Further demand gains in the weather outlook and reports of supply disruptions helped inspire a natural gas futures rally to open the work week Monday. In the spot market, hotter temperatures supported Southeast gains, while price moves were mixed in the West; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. added 6.0 cents to $2.125/MMBtu.

metmike: Note how low that spot prices have been..............way under the futures. If we have a cool Summer, one would think that we will see new contract lows for natural gas futures. 

By metmike - May 21, 2019, 10:35 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence Tuesday Morning:

Heat Still Seen Easing by Early June; Natural Gas Futures Called Lower

     8:51 AM    

With the latest forecasts still showing a bearish pattern for the start of June, natural gas futures were trading several cents lower early Tuesday. The June Nymex futures contract was down 3.2 cents to $2.641/MMBtu shortly after 8:30 a.m. ET, reversing off of the prior session’s 4.2-cent rally.

By metmike - May 22, 2019, 12:27 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence closing comments Tuesday...look  how low cash prices are!

Production Back Online, Sending Natural Gas Futures Lower

     5:26 PM    

After a drop in production helped rally prices to start the work week, natural gas futures reversed sharply Tuesday amid reports of the interrupted supply coming back online. In the spot market, potential record-setting heat expected in the Southeast by the weekend proved insufficient as a catalyst for higher day-ahead prices; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg.skidded 3.5 cents to $2.090/MMBtu.

By metmike - May 22, 2019, 11:08 a.m.
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By metmike - May 22, 2019, 6:21 p.m.
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NGI Wednesday after the close:


Natural Gas Futures Extend Slump on Large Storage Build, Mild June Forecast

     5:20 PM    

A less than impressive forecast for early June and expectations for another triple-digit storage injection created an opening for bears to extend a recent sell-off in the natural gas futures market Wednesday. In the spot market, sweltering conditions in the Southeast couldn’t stave off widespread discounts; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. fell 1.0 cent to $2.080/MMBtu

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 10:37 a.m.
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Just after the open: June Natural Gas Sees Early Gains as Hefty EIA Build Inbound

9:30 am: EIA  +100 bcf  slightly bullish                                                                                              


Another Three-Digit EIA Injection; NatGas Balances in Need of ‘Material Improvement’

    11:29 AM    

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a 100 Bcf weekly injection into U.S. natural gas stocks, a figure on the low side...


Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region05/17/1905/10/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East353  330  23  23   296  19.3  369  -4.3  
Midwest364  336  28  28   285  27.7  416  -12.5  
Mountain89  82  7  7   106  -16.0  131  -32.1  
Pacific186  174  12  12   212  -12.3  245  -24.1  
South Central762  731  31  31   718  6.1  867  -12.1  
   Salt249  240  9  9   225  10.7  266  -6.4  
   Nonsalt513  491  22  22   493  4.1  601  -14.6  
Total1,753  1,653  100  100   1,616  8.5  2,027  -13.5  
By metmike - May 23, 2019, 9:58 p.m.
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Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Natural Gas Futures See Modest Bounce as Latest Injection Lighter Than Estimates

     5:26 PM    

A weekly inventory build on the low side of estimates and a warmer-leaning early June outlook supported a small bounce in natural gas futures prices Thursday

By WxFollower - May 24, 2019, 12:37 a.m.
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 I think that it was up some early due to slightly warmer model consensus. Then it fell back. Then once the slightly bullish EIA was released, that was enough in combo with the slightly warmer average of the models to eventually produce new session highs.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 2:21 a.m.
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That makes  good sense Larry.

The 06z GFS ensembles were quite a bit warmer.  The market starting going up pretty steady after 6am.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 12:57 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence Friday Morning: Weather Outlook Mostly Unchanged; Natural Gas Futures Down Early

By metmike - May 25, 2019, 12:23 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence after the close Friday:

Record Lows for Midcon Cash as Natural Gas Futures Steady


The natural gas futures market turned in a quiet day of trading Friday as the latest readings on fundamentals didn’t offer much to excite traders and peel them away from their holiday plans. In the spot market, pipeline maintenance drove record lows in the Midcontinent and sent stopped-up West Texas deep into the red; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 27.0 cents to $1.805/MMBtu