Weather Friday
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Started by metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:01 a.m.

It's an excellent May 24th!!!   Do something to make somebody feel loved today!  Then, after observing the positive results,  make a good habit out of it!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.   

Heat ridge in the Southeast(near 100 degree heat far Southeast into early next week)  The core of the heat ridge is tenacious but the light is at the end of the forecasting tunnel.  This is old news now..

Stormy and wet weather ahead.  Heaviest rains will be shifting and around the  periphery of the heat ridge.. Least amounts in the Eastern Cornbelt but rains in the ECB are not going away completely.

Big pattern change  in week 2 as long lived  Heat ridge in the Southeast goes bye bye!!!! This will also start to decrease excessive  rains! However, on Friday the NEW pattern still looks potentially wet in some places, just not AS wet.  Potential for new upper level ridge.........where will it be? The location will determine the new flow pattern. 

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     




US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Wind Chill Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:02 a.m.
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Heat in the South is surging north!  Cool in the N.Plains.

Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades. 


By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:05 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Major heat wave in the Southeast.  100  lasting several days. Close to all time May records!  Some of that heat expands out into the Eastern Cornbelt.  Cool  N.Plains and westward.

This all starts changing late next week!

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:07 a.m.
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Red  very warm  anomalies southeast to Eastern Cornbelt(RED HOT  temps far Southeast), Chilly blue anomalies N.Plains to Southwest.

Lots of weather action in between( very unwanted rains).

Pattern change late next week!

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:13 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

  Thermal boundary/front sets up that acts as a focus for waves of heavy thunderstorms.............around the periphery of  the intense heat ridge, especially Western Cornbelt back to the Plains .   Blistering heat in the Southeast. This will be changing.

Heat ridge will expand briefly early next week ahead of the coming pattern change.

Huge pattern change! Much cooler air and northern stream influence. Strong, progressive, cold front sweeps southeast in the Midwest, starting midweek............and eventually getting into the Southeast and obliterating the intense heat. Reinforcing cold fronts to follow.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:15 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:21 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Hefty totals!!  Heaviest rains from KS to s.WI/n.IL

That heavy rain, stalled location pattern will be changing with the new, much more progressive pattern, starting in the middle of next week as the blocking heat ridge in the Southeast breaks down.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:23 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts-with us all into next mid week!! Then the pattern change.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:24 a.m.
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Severe Storm risk- with us into middle of week!!

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook       
By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:25 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Deep moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico!!!

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

 The Cornbelt has had way too much rain. We will be drying out(but not completely dry) for the next several days adding in some heat.    Stormy weather returns late week.

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:27 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week)

Some places have dried out enough to plant but its still too wet in other places. Heat in the forecast, especially Eastern Cornbelt will help drying but more big rains are on the way, heaviest for the west and central belt. Pattern change later next week.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:28 a.m.
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Currently, there is 0%  of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm) in the Southeast though which has some drought. The Southeast drought will be expanding/worsening during the next week. 

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next month.


By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:38 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Wednesday: Vast majority have the heat ridge in the Southeast, with hot/and dry over the Southern 1/3 of the country. Deep trough or upper level low along the West Coast and strong jet stream aimed towards the middle of the country, over the top of the ridge acting to trigger active weather. 

Thursday: Around half of the members keep the huge heat ridge going in the Southeast. Half break it down. They will be one of the keys to determine where the strong Pacific jet stream coming in will travel. Potential for a lot of rain when it encounters warm humid air being pumped in by the heat ridge.

Friday: Majority keep the heat ridge going in the Southeast. Very strong jet stream coming from the Pacific.    

Saturday: Canadian ensembles shift the Southeast heat ridge farther to the west. Still a strong jet stream across the country, with possibly more zonal, progressive (but active) flow if the blocking heat ridge is displaced from its long lived home in the Southeast. 

Sunday: Some solutions keep the long lasting heat ridge in the Southeast alive...........others, obliterate it.

Monday: Watching to see what happens to the heat ridge in the Southeast. ......and location of the powerful jet stream coming out of the Pacific which will be modulated by the upper level trough along the West Coast and downstream upper level ridge. 

Tuesday: Same as Monday. In fact, hard to tell any difference in the ensemble average. 

Wednesday: Southeast ridge continues to go away/shift west and be replaced by weak troughing in the new pattern. Much, much cooler in the Southeast. Midsection may still be active with a decent jet stream and numerous  systems. .

Thursday: Good agreement on a deep upper level low/trough along or just off the West but wide spread downstream on the upper level ridge and path of the strong jet stream in between them. 

Friday: Another day with good/strong agreement on the trough around the West Coast. Strong stream from the Pacific will be coming in under this. Where it's aimed downstream will depend on any upper level ridging or no ridging. The long lived Southeast heat ridge still looks to die in week 2(possibly shifting westward to the W.Gulf to N.Mex/S.TX).

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 08, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:42 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Thursday: Heat ridge in the Southeast still pretty impressive with active weather around its perimeter.  Will it erode from the north?

Friday: How strong and how long for the tenacious heat ridge in the Southeast?

Saturday: Will the heat ridge move? Will the jet stream migrate north? Is a pattern change coming up? This is possible.

Sunday: Demise of the long lived Southeast heat ridge on the vast majority late week 2.

Monday: Potential shift in upper level ridge position.........MUCH farther north. This may divert the strong Pacific Jet into Canada and help lessen excessive rain potential.

Tuesday:  This model also looks like yesterday............and a pattern change coming in week 2.

Wednesday: The heat ridge in the Southeast is completely dead and replaced by troughing and MUCH cooler temperatures. This will lessen the amount of Gulf moisture for active weather systems. Will we have active northwest flow across the belt as an upper level ridge builds in the Plains?

Thursday: Much different than the Canadian model above and tremendous differences/spread for individual members, so great uncertainty. Best agreement is for the upper level ridge in the Southeast to be replaced by weak troughing.

Friday: Pattern change from what we have now with heat ridge in the Southeast broken down but too much spread on how what it will be to take a serious gander.........other than to think that it will be more progressive than the recent pattern.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:44 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Saturday:  The long lived northern stream couplet of positive anomalies in the high latitudes coupled downstream to negative anomalies in Southeast Canada/Northeast US may be getting disrupted. At the very least, the growing positive southern stream anomaly in the middle of the country may deflect northern stream influence to the north. This is a result of a building heat ridge. Still a negative southern stream anomaly in the Southwest (trough of low pressure), coupled with the down stream upper level ridge/positive anomaly, under that right conditions can lead to excessive rains around the periphery of the ridge( especially if it sets up in the Southeast) or could shut down the rains underneath it for much of the Cornbelt if it sets up farther northwest.

Sunday: Long lived northern stream influence looks to be fading and migrating north as a building positive anomaly takes over in the Eastern half of the US and brings heat(except maybe the far Northeast). How the negative anomaly in the west interacts with the upper level high is uncertain with regards to exact location of the large scale features but confidence is high for heat in a large area(dry under the center of the heat ridge) and wet around the periphery. 

Monday: Anomalies in the US don't help much, mainly because the contrasting individual solutions offset each other when averaged out. When you have this, you have uncertainty. 

Tuesday: Positive anomaly from building heat ridge eastern half of the country.

Wednesday: Still the positive anomaly from the heat ridge in the Southeast part of the country but less pronounced today.

Thursday: Still positive anomaly in the East, negative anomaly in the West. This spells warmth east, chilly west. Wet for much in between(dry Southeast).

Friday; Key negative anomaly in the Southwest which will aim the jet stream downstream. Where it gets aimed will be determined by the location of the heat ridge in the Southeast, where there are still modest positive anomalies.

Saturday: Modest position anomaly shifts west of Southeast, still decent negative anomaly in the West, a bit farther north now and potentially leading to the jet stream shifting north. 

Sunday: Positive anomaly shifting to the Plains out of the Southeast. Still the negative anomaly along the West Coast that will be associated with Pacific jet stream energy. 

Monday: Growing positive anomaly from Southeast Canada back to the Great Lakes replacing the long lived heat ridge in the Southeast which is shifting on this model. Negative anomaly on the West Coast is getting washed out. Jet stream shifts/weakens. 

Tuesday: A weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the far Southeast,tells us the long lived heat ridge will be going bye bye!!!! Now, we have an extensive positive anomaly along the Canadian border in the new pattern...........which will be drier with the heat ridge not steering Gulf air north and blocking progression.  Don't see the negative anomaly along the West Coast here but its there on the Canadian model. 

Wednesday: Weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the East is even more confirmation that the long lived heat ridge will be dead. Very cool in the East.  Positive anomaly in the Plains to West. This is a major pattern change.

Thursday: Very weak negative anomaly very far Southeast/Florida. Positive anomaly Northeast Canada. 

Friday: Exactly like Thursday but much uncertainty though it looks progressive.

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:46 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Saturday: Still negative AO with the high latitudes not changing a great deal but NAO increases a bit. Mid latitudes could be changing, with potential for more warming from the south in a manner that these indices are not designed to capture well(since they are NORTHERN stream flow indicators). PNA a tad positive.

Sunday: AO and NAO increasing to almost 0 near the end of week 2(after being solidly negative for a couple of weeks)...........suggesting a pattern change that takes out the northern stream influence that has been around for quite some time. PNA near 0.

Monday: AO and NAO increasing. PNA decreasing. Pattern change?

Tuesday: AO and NAO increasing but stay a bit negative. PNA plunging to negative.

Wednesday: AO increases back to near 0. NAO, PNA slightly negative. Nothing strong to key on as indicators. 

Thursday: AO, NAO, PNA all slightly negative. 

Friday: AO increases to near 0. NAO and PNA slightly negative. 

Saturday: The same as yesterday. It's getting to the warm season when these indices are not much help anyway. 

Sunday: A0 up to 0, NAO and PNA a bit negative.

Monday: All slightly negative. Could have a pattern change later in week(not because of these indices though)

Tuesday: AO, NAO, PNA all a tad negative. Nothing to see here.

Wednesday: A tad negative. The PNA has a wide spread at the end of week 2, some strongly negative.

Thursday. Slight negative for NAO/AO, near 0 PNA.

Friday. Slight negative for NAO/AO and near 0 PNA again.




By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Latest morning thoughts, starting with the oldest down to the newest:

Last Wednesday: Looking to see how much rain returns in the later period(from the west) and heat building again in the Southeast.

Thursday: How long will the dry weather in the 6-10 day hold on to the Eastern Cornbelt? Temps should start warming in the 8-14 day.

Friday: Wetter in the west into the Plains, drier in the Eastern Cornbelt/East. Temperatures uncertain trend.

Saturday: Should be pretty wet again but this is dependent on where a potential heat ridge sets up. The GFS products have been pretty gung ho on the heat ridge the past 24 hours vs the European model but todays extended NWS products should continue to turn up the heat in the eastern half, while staying cool West.

Sunday: Look for heat to increase and be dominant in the eastern half. Cool in the west. More reain west, less east.

Monday: For sure heat Southeast half/cool Northwest in the 6-10 day and more rains northwest, less East. Regardless of what the 8-14 day shows today, I wouldn't put much faith in it. 

Tuesday: Look for the heat to build!

Wednesday: Same theme. Huge heat in the Southeast half, chilly Western half. Wet western 2/3rds, dry eastern 1/3rd. Latest maps spread more cooling east across the northern tier but may not show up in the NWS extended this afternoon. 

Thursday: Very close to Wednesday.

Friday: A new day, the same outlooks. Hot/dry  Southeast/very warm outward.  Cool West.  Very wet in between.

Saturday: Could be seeing some shifts after today in these outlooks (8-14 day) but probably not this afternoon yet.

Sunday: Should start seeing these outlooks cool down(less heat) the Southeast, starting with the 8-14 day. 

Monday: Still looking for the pattern change starting to show up in these 8-14 day outlooks pretty soon.

Tuesday: Confidence still that the heat ridge will be fizzling out in the Southeast with intense heat there going away. Temperatures and precip reconfigures across the country with much less extreme weather! This will start showing up with gusto in the 8-14 day maps...................finally??

Wednesday: With incredibly high confidence, the NWS will finally start cooling off the Southeast, especially in the later/8-14 day period.  Rains will continue above for the Cornbelt, however. 

Thursday: The NWS has been slow to reflect the cooling in the Southeast that I(and the ng market)  think is coming in the late part of week 2 but we will call for them to see it again today. Still wet but not as extreme in the later periods.

Friday: Still surprised the NWS has not cut back on heat probabilities in the Southeast the last few days with the pattern change. Rains should continue above on the outlooks but more progressive, less excessive type rain events with the new pattern.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - May 24, 2019, 11:54 a.m.
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Previous discussions:        


                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            

                            By bcb - May 12, 2019, 12:26 p.m.            


I'll call the corn market higher tonight. IL. is dead with planting progress.

Remember S.D and N.D. was going to plant 1.6 mil acres more of corn than last yr. too.

Trade will watch weather real close now that were at the May 15th date.

PP acres here we come



                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - May 13, 2019, 11:23 a.m.            


Sorry bcb,

I didn't see this post because it was wedged in between my weather maps yesterday.

We added alot of heat to the forecast on Sunday for fast drying and rains hold off long enough for many areas to catch up the market looks ahead.

Planting progress number tonight will be bullish though, reflecting your observations. However, the market will see 80's for several days in IL, starting later this week allowing producers to finally do some planting.

Good point on the Dakotas. This is where the new zone of heavy rains could set the Upper Midwest, next weekend. That would turn corn bullish again and may already be supporting us off the lows on Monday Morning.


 Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - May 13, 2019, 5:12 p.m.            

Planting number on corn at just 30% did come in bullish vs 35% expectations:




                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            


                By metmike - May 15, 2019, 2:06 p.m.            


The extremely wet GFS operational models overnight(that spike corn higher on Tuesday Night), in the late morning 12z run on Wednesday, shifted the heaviest rains northwest, mostly out of IL, except for the very far northwest  and dropped 2 week totals a bit  there. This led to the sell off in corn Wednesday late morning/early afternoon. 

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            


                By mcfarm - May 16, 2019, 6:25 p.m.            


just an update on today's guy says 20% tomorrow then cleat thru sat...this is it...this is our window to plant the entire crop....1 hour ago a non predicted storm with tennis ball size hell and rain with intensity I have not seen maybe forever...nearly and inch in 2o minutes, still raining....what a great window to plant in with the so called "heavy stuff" coming next week...been thru some tough ones but this planting season has been miserable



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            


                By metmike - May 16, 2019, 8:04 p.m.            


Unfortunately, I was thinking about you late yesterday and today when this wave along the approaching warm front showed up and added rains for today to the ECB mcfarm. 

Here are the last 4 runs of the GFS operational model below, starting with the most recent one that finished at 6pm. The ones below that each, go back 6 hours in time.

The bright pink is 10 inches of rain. You can see the area keeps moving around with each run. The last one has pulled back a bit to the west, the huge rains in IN/IN on the mega bullish run from 6 hours ago but its still more bullish than the run 12 hours ago and about the same or slightly more than the run 18 hours ago.

The European model is nothing close to being this wet.

Even though I think the heat ridge may expand, I also think these rain totals below will be close..........around the periphery of the heat ridge.

The amount of heat and humidity coming up on the backside will be enormous, along with a heck of a jet stream and chances for a stalled front with waves/impulses along it.

Every ingredient for a widespread excessive rain signal that remains in the same vicinity for numerous days because of the blocking heat ridge.............which is where the real threat is..............the same areas getting bombed several times.  A foot of rain would not surprise me in some spots.





                Re: Weather Friday            


                By WxFollower - May 17, 2019, 3:41 p.m.            


 The GFS and Euro suites have been consistent on predicting near all-time record May hottest for much of the SE US on several days late next week into early the following week of upper 90s to low 100s! Drought areas there will likely expand and get more intense.




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Friday            


                By metmike - May 17, 2019, 4:40 p.m.            


Thanks Larry!

Intense heat and the currently dry soils will help the air to heat up even more, targeting 100 degrees in the hot spots later next week.




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            



                By mcfarm - May 19, 2019, 1:52 p.m.            


monsoon type rains here again today  round 2 is at my door step for today....severe warnings now out




                Re: Re: Weather Sunday            



                By metmike - May 19, 2019, 6:24 p.m.            



These storms are moving fast and will be thru in a flash.

How much rain did you get earlier. Your NWS reported .19. 

I got .61. 

We've really dried out down here. I haven't been around to check but am sure there's a lot of planting done on high ground and probably elsewhere. 




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By mcfarm - May 19, 2019, 7:22 p.m.            



it is raining now....again. multiple warnings is what they say...up to 1.5 inches this afternnonn



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By pll - May 19, 2019, 7:42 p.m.            



We only got .2 today but we have only had 2 days planting and none fit like you would like it really id say 20% done here ECILL



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            



                By metmike - May 19, 2019, 7:47 p.m.            


Thanks pll and mcfarm!




                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            



                By mcfarm - May 19, 2019, 7:48 p.m.            



our latest spring shower



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Sunday            


                By metmike - May 19, 2019, 9:31 p.m.            


The NWS service in Indy reported .22 with that one along with the .19 earlier in the day.

Hopefully that will be it for a couple of days.

When this front comes back as a warm front, most of the rains will be to the west but its possible they could be in Indiana.........just impossible to know.

If we can get that warm front shoved to the Michigan border, you would be in some heat and dry weather later this week. This heat ridge is definitively going to expand north later this week though into the ECB, high confidence. Thursday and Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see 90 for you mcfarm, along with a pretty decent sw wind, especially Friday. 




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Monday            


                By metmike - May 20, 2019, 1:47 p.m.            



Heat ridge will be shifting out of the Southeast in week 2, probably.

Looks likely that it will be shifting west and maybe building up thru the Plains...............but maybe not dry.

The jet stream track around the ridge may cause a "ring of fire" pattern that features clusters of storms that MOVE(not a blocking pattern, from the Plains into the Midwest with much more heat, farther north and west.

This won't show up yet on the NWS guidance today.......maybe the 8-14 it will.

The Southeast WILL be cooling off noticeably in the 8-14. starting soon.

Still a ton of rain before the new pattern shapes up and the new pattern is not necessarily a dry one, especially with these wet soils in early June. The high angled sun will evaporate alot of moisture from the surface to boost rainfall amounts.

However, since this new pattern will feature much LESS rain, if planting progress is better than expected and it continues to look drier, last nights gap higher in corn could be an exhaustion gap.  Not my prediction with so much rain on the way but the heavy rains are stale news and we are almost 50c higher.


 Re: planting progress            

                            By metmike - May 20, 2019, 4:44 p.m.            


Thanks mcfarm,

Sorry you're having a rough time of it.  I'll have all the stats in a short while. This(less planted c/s) will cause us to have a higher open tonight.


For the crop condition report/planting progress, go here:

Less planted than expected, so a higher open tonight.




                Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By metmike - May 21, 2019, 1:04 p.m.            


12z GFS was WETTER!

For the 3rd run in a row, it brings an almost unprecedented, for the end of May polar vortex low down to just north or the Great Lakes early in week 2.  For now, its at such  an extreme that makes one skeptical.

For the last 3 runs, the GFS has been forecasting an unprecedented deep polar vortex low dropping south to just north of the US border early in week 2.

This is the now updated 12z GFS run for May 30.

This is an outlier and such an extreme that means it can't be believed. There would be alot of clouds with it that might keep night temps above freezing. Also, nights are very short, so less cooling time and surface temperatures even at the highest latitudes have warmed enough so its almost impossible to bring enough cold air, moderating on the way down, deeply into the US to cause a widespread freeze in the Cornbelt.

But if it can happen, the pattern below would be favorable.



                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            


                By mcfarm - May 21, 2019, 4:11 p.m.            



sunny and mild they day of the week they about pouring rain and 51 degrees for the factual part




                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Tuesday            

                            By metmike - May 21, 2019, 7:43 p.m.            


                By metmike - May 23, 2019, 3:20 p.m.            




The last 12z GFS had a pretty impressive heat ridge going on in the Midwest to points east.

Gave the NG a pop higher and put pressure on the corn(improved planting weather)


Extreme weather risk week 2.

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 3:08 p.m.
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    Forecast for the 2nd and 3rd week in June. This forecast has low skill.  

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 08 Jun 2019 to 21 Jun 2019
Updated: 24 May 2019

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Temperature Probability

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability
By mcfarm - May 24, 2019, 5:09 p.m.
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what is going on? we have not had our 2nd rain event of the day yet and its 4pm...had 2 events/day for days

By metmike - May 24, 2019, 5:31 p.m.
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Sorry to hear your having such bad luck mcfarm,

We've really dried out everywhere here in S.Indiana, I hope we can send some of it your way along with some heat and wind the next couple of days.

Unfortunately, the front between the hot air down here and cooler air farther to the north and some jet stream energy is going to be close enough to you so that more shwrs could happen at any time. Hopefully the heat ridge ends up stronger and shoves it farther north. 

I know it sounds crazy but your NWS actually is a tad below average for May rainfall on their climate report


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                  NORMAL .................................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY  MAXIMUM         86    239 PM  90    1965  75     11       83                                      1921  MINIMUM         64    513 AM  37    1925  55      9       61  AVERAGE         75                        65     10       72 
PRECIPITATION (IN)  TODAY            0.28          1.55 1981   0.17   0.11     0.00  MONTH TO DATE    3.81                      3.95  -0.14     1.03  SINCE MAR 1     13.79                     11.32   2.47    10.51  SINCE JAN 1     21.29                     16.30   4.99    17.16

Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By mcfarm - May 24, 2019, 8:08 p.m.
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not crazy MM...our official gathering station is miles away on Indpls SW corner....totally different scenerios many years

By becker - May 24, 2019, 9:24 p.m.
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Whats your guesstimate for number or % of corn acres pp or drowned to date? Are we now presumed to be below trendline yields?

By metmike - May 25, 2019, 1:43 a.m.
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Wonderful question becker!

I'll try to answer that in more detail and would appreciate others thoughts on that too tomorrow.

I know that some are insisting trendline yields are impossible now and I would agree that they are unlikely but they ARE possible. The increase in CO2 has been boosting yields tremendously and we have added a tad more beneficial CO2 since last year. No matter how bad everything else is and gets, that is still going to be a huge plus that's been adding something like 15% to corn yields and 25% to bean yields vs what they would be if CO2 had not gone up.

If we dried out the next 2 weeks, then had perfect weather the rest of the growing season, we can certainly have trendline yields. It will be on reduced acres of course, so that is going to cause lower production.

More later.

What are your thoughts?

By mcfarm - May 25, 2019, 7:04 a.m.
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sure good yields are possible. In 1981 we did not plant a seed until June 1st and the summer proceeded to be warm and wet. Stuff grew a foot a wee it seemed. Very unusual.

By cliff-e - May 25, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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I talked with a farmer last night who planted/mudded in corn 2 weeks has a sprout but due severely compacted soil and our cold overnight temps. the corn sprout has made a 90 degree turn and is trying to leaf out under the ground. We have rain forecast again for Sunday night into Monday...maybe an 1" but when we have water running out of hillsides due to our already high water table even .2" makes it look like we had 2".