planting progress
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Started by mcfarm - May 20, 2019, 4:12 p.m.

new usda numbers corn 49% and beans 19%  ...there will be virtually no progress in the experts predicted drier areas of the east this week with water standing,,,,, and the west is predicted flooding next we have slightly more progress but record late numbers

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 4:44 p.m.
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Thanks mcfarm,

Sorry you're having a rough time of it.  I'll have all the stats in a short while. This will cause us to have a higher open tonight.

These were market expectations:

      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                                


Table: Crop Progress Expectations 5 yr planting averages, May 19: #Corn 80%, #soybeans 47%, spring #wheat 80%. Slowest-ever May 19: corn 50% 1995; soy 12% 1983 Slowest May 19 post-2000: corn 68% 2009; soy 24% 2013#plant19



By metmike - May 20, 2019, 4:56 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  42m42 minutes ago             


U.S. planting progress, May 19

:#Corn 49% (SLOWEST in records back to 1980; 5yr avg 80%; last wk 30%)

#Soybeans 19% (slowest since 1996; 5yr avg 47%; last wk 9%) 

Spring #wheat 70% (5yr avg 80%; last wk 45%)#plant19








                          3 replies                            39 retweets                            49 likes           









By metmike - May 20, 2019, 4:58 p.m.
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State-by-state planting, May 19:#Corn

Illinois 24% (5yr avg 89%)

 Indiana 14% (avg 73%)

 Iowa 70% (89%) 

Michigan 19% (54%) 

Minnesota 56% (83%) 

Missouri 62% (92%)

 N Dak 42% (63%) 

Ohio 9% (62%) 

S Dak 19% (76%) 

Wisconsin 35% (65%)

 Kansas 61% (80%)

 Nebraska 70% (86%)#plant19



By metmike - May 20, 2019, 4:59 p.m.
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Only 19% of U.S. #corn had emerged by May 19, tied with 2013 for the slowest in records back to 1999. The 5-year average for the date is 49%. In Illinois, only 11% has emerged versus an average of 71%.



By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  20m20 minutes ago              


Here's a look at where the #corn progress was made last week and where it wasn't. The Western Belt (northern areas) made big jumps on the week but the Eastern Belt was slower. The west will likely be wetter than the east this week, though. #plant19



By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:21 p.m.
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   metmike: You can see the tendency for late planted crops to have lower than trend yields. 2012 was the huge exception because of the only drought in over 30 years(which is easily the record for least amount of drought in Cornbelt history)

   Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  56s56 seconds ago              


For those who like a more analytical approach, these charts compare planting progress on May 19 with the final yield deviation.







By cliff-e - May 20, 2019, 8:47 p.m.
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The official report. Both corn and soy planting about 30% below avg. And what was mudded in will have much lower yield potential especially in cold soils.

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 11:25 p.m.
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Thanks cliff,

I forgot to include that with the other stuff above

By silverspiker - May 21, 2019, 12:06 a.m.
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baby ...


By MarkB - May 21, 2019, 12:55 a.m.
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Granted that I was out of town when the spike in the corn market occured. None-the-less, I was prepared for it. With corn sinking, in spite of the rains that the corn belt had been receiving, it had to break some time. C was oversold, even against fundamentals.

But now, a week later from the breakout, I am faced with it being overbought for the fundamentals. Which means to me, that I will have to play this close to the cuff. There has to be a correction to normal fundamental values, if the weather permits. And not predicted weather, but actual weather.

By silverspiker - May 21, 2019, 2 a.m.
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.....  I understand exactly what you said and aforez_=- mentioned because it is really you ...jumping into three jumping ropes at the same time and try to jump rope and skip it at the same time....

Peace be with you ....and there definitely is a rythm. into jumping into a weather Market

By wglassfo - May 21, 2019, 11:10 a.m.
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We are at approx. 15 % corn planted We will plant the 1st commercial corn today, in slightly les than ideal conditions but what do you do with such late progress

All of the 15 % planted is sweet corn, of which soil conditions was less than ideal, but sweet corn market makes for early plant and less yield still financially viable to hit the early premium market price

We are at 250 acres of 700 sweet corn so we are behind schedule by a lot, even on wet soils conditions

We planted in wet soils such that the planter disk wheels almost stopped turning on the sweet corn planter, to give you an idea of how wet the soil was. Much power washing to clean up the planter between rain events

Our best window is behind us, so we have to plant in less than ideal conditions

So, just because it is planted does not mean we expect trend line yields

At this time frame we are just trying to plant and hope for something to harvest

Overall I would think some of the corn planted in the corn belt was planted in less then ideal soil conditions, so we will have to wait until harvest to find out yield and total production

Some folks will be having  emergence  issues [plants missing or uneven] but are taking what ever comes up and going with that Flooded acres will be replntd or not planted the 1st time

We are planting around wet spots even with tile under the wet spots

Personally I have zero corn in the ground

This yr is a struggle for sure

We are in the Great lakes region

Very little corn planted in Ontario with some places being dry enough to start and most with nothing moving, but if the rain holds off, more will start each day

The last couple rains were only 1/4 " which was a blessing, and 3 days apart

Today is the 1st day we have all our machinery in the field, at the same time. with two corn planters working, both on sweet corn

Commercial corn planting will start later today/tonite once the soil dries out after a light pre-plant run with the turbo till, to hasten surface soil dry down

Gotta do what you can at this time of yr

Big investment in machinery and tile and Mother Nature still rules the roost

250,000.00 invested in a used sprayer, 150,000.00 invested in a corn planter, plus 150,000.00 plus invested in tractors and assorted machinery and we spray 30 acre plots. All but one machine was purchased used

New prices, with our loonie is stupid expensive

Combine has done 8 crops and needs to be replaced after this harvest. At least stuff is paid for, including crop being planted, so we will have a fighting chance to survive. No big government pay outs for lost markets in Canada, or our farm.. Western canola boys are in trouble but we did what you wanted with that Chinese lady arrested and now we pay the price, with china

Sure hope you appreciate the favour. Mostly you just ignore us. We got Canadians locked up in prison over this deal, in china, and nobody is helping

Makes you wonder. At least the steel tariff is gone.

By metmike - May 22, 2019, 12:33 a.m.
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Thanks for your thoughts Wayne.

Wow, you have alot of money in your equipment. So a planter only last 8 years?

Hopefully, this year the weather straightens out after this awful start for some of you guys.

By metmike - May 22, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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May 21: CBOT Nov #soybeans to Dec #corn ratio fell to 2.07, the lowest since late 2012 and the lowest for May since 2011, further favoring corn over soybeans. One month ago, SX/CZ was still around 2.37.



By wglassfo - May 22, 2019, 5:54 p.m.
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Sorry my message was mistaken

A planter will last as long as you are williing to buy parts and do the labour

The tech may change and then it is a decision of ROI

I was talking about a combine

Most the combine machine will lAST FOR A LONG TIIME





Is the machine dependable or will it use valuable time being repaired

Some operators that can't do repairs will spend 25-50,000/yr on preventative maintence, and still have harvest down time

So when do you buy new vs repair the old machine

Sorry about the caps

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 11:30 a.m.
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Wow Wayne, you need to be a farm machinery mechanic or have one working for you!

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 11:31 a.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  55m55 minutes ago              



As of May 19, the United States still had about 116 million acres of #corn and #soybeans left to plant, far more than any other year and well ahead of second place: 91 million in 1995. Average is just below 60 million for the date. #plant19



By metmike - May 24, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  26m26 minutes ago              



According to my data set, record low national corn planting progress numbers the next two weeks (both set in 1995): Week ending May 26: 67% done Week ending June 2: 77% done

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:48 p.m.
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Any guesses on planting progress for Tuesday 3pm USDA report?

I know a ton has been planted here in S.Indiana.

Probably OH and S.IL did some good planting too.

By wglassfo - May 27, 2019, 9:54 a.m.
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As of tonite we should be 50% corn planted, all on wet soil

Our corn under plastic is 6 plus inches tall and the 1st sweet corn planted with the commercial planter can be rowed

We got a gully washer of rain Sat nite, which stopped the corn planter

We are planting today in wet soil

I saw dust for less than 1/2 day all spring, thus if we did not plant in wet soil, not much would be planted

We will plant any place we don't get stuck, which means going around standing water or soggy soil

Machinery sitting idle does us no good, at this late date

We have to do something different, which means more tile, this fall

I would say the area around us is 25 % planted as of May 24 

By wglassfo - May 28, 2019, 1:02 p.m.
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Well, I had hoped we would miss the rain early in the day. We actually did miss it.

 The storm cell went north and missed us. But  the second cell came from no where and shut us down at 11:00 P:M. We never have cells develop from no where but this yr stuff happens

June planting for sure as we don't have the PP option

The good part is our Sept cash is 6.11 CAD F.O.B the ethanol plant and other buyers. We truck our own corn.

Of course I have most of my old crop sold, as do many others. Even with a  dollar plus for exchange that is a good price

Will be interesting what 2020 corn is worth, come next yr

Butt 1st we have to harvest some thing

A part of a crop will not pay the bills

None the less we will install more tile, gravel where water stands etc

Too much invested in machinery to sit and miss a planting opportunity

We can do it

Just takes money but this is no good