By WxFollower - March 10, 2019, 4:22 p.m.            

Approximate HDD change for ensemble runs

1. 12Z Sun vs 12Z Fri:

 EPS -11; GEFS 0

2. 12Z Sun vs 0Z Fri:

EPS -14; GEFS -8 

Previous discussions on natural gas here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/25189/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24662/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/24111/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/23680/

Look how fast the mild weather in December and early January caused us to close the storage gap below. But now, the gap is widening/growing again because of the extreme cold..............and we are still below the 5 year average and towards to bottom of the 5 year range.

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

EIA report.............-149 bcf. The market hardly blinked but has been gradually weaker for the hour following the release because of milder extended models.....going from a bit higher to a bit lower now.

Natural Gas Intelligence:

EIA Storage Withdrawal Close to Consensus, Keeping Natural Gas Futures Steady

    11:36 AM    

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a larger-than-average 149 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. natural gas stocks that came close to consensus.

Larry:

                By WxFollower - March 8, 2019, 1:06 p.m.            

             The -149 was solidly bullish vs the average guess of -140 per the WSJ. Also, for a week with 196 HDDs, it wasn't nearly as bearish as some other weeks have been this winter. However, some of that was due to freeze-offs as opposed to higher demand. The freeze-offs from this next report will be even higher. But afterward, they should be dropping sharply.

metmike: I'll go with WxFollower on this one.

These were the temperatures for the 7 day period ending March 1st/Friday that went into last Thursdays EIA number.

These were the temperatures that will go into this Thursda's EIA number released at 9:30am. The cold anomalies in the Plains and Upper Midwest are off the charts.......literally with regards to the coldest shade. 

Violets representing the -16 anomaly are the coldest that we can show but there were places that were -24 vs average!!!

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

The point of showing it is to show that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up from mid February into April. 

The lows in Feb., would be perfectly timed with a typical, end of Winter low, which is followed by increasing prices over 80% of the time into early Spring. 

One should also note that at this time of year, when most of the heating season is over, weather/cold temperatures that increases heating demand in the high population centers has less power to determine prices.............as long as supplies aren't precariously low(they are low but not extremely low) or the demand/supply fundamentals are not extremely tight. Fundamentals are actually pretty bearish........note the price is still fairly low even though storage is still less than the 5 year average.....because the market feels very comfortable...... is projecting additional storage gains from supplies gushing in.

Last Thursday's EIA report was bullish according to Larry.

These natural gas price charts aren't the greatest (for April) but they do show a likely seasonal bottom.

The Feb price dropped below the Jan lows and reversed higher.

Huge support in that zone on the yearly chart, with numerous trips down to between around 2.5 to 2.6 that solidly held. 

Another interesting item is that last week, we appeared to be potentially breaking out of a down trendline going back to last December, when April ng was testing $3.............or, we could have just been violating it a bit, testing it and then going back down.  Last weeks highs were 2.896.

Monday am update: Been busy catching up after the weekend chess tournament.

Last nights gap lower in prices(below the lows on Friday) was a downside breakaway gap from much milder forecasts between Friday's close and Sunday Nights open.

The gap is now between 2.856(Fri low) and 2.841(early high last night on the open). As long as the forecast remains mild, we can go lower but its getting  too late in the season for warm weather to take us to new lows, below the February lows. The low so far on Monday has been 2.766.

NG 7 days

Natural gas 3 months below

Natural gas 1 year chart

Been busy catching up after the weekend chess tournament.

Last nights gap lower in prices(below the lows on Friday) was a downside breakaway gap from much milder forecasts between Friday's close and Sunday Nights open.

The gap is now between 2.856(Fri low) and 2.841(early high last night on the open). As long as the forecast remains mild, we can go lower but its getting late in the season for warm weather to take us to new lows, below the February lows. The low so far on Monday has been 2.766. 

Overnight maps continued to get milder(with the exception of the European operational that had several days of a  cold snap early in week 2 that offset the warmth temporarily.

From Natural Gas Intelligence this morning:

‘Significant’ Forecast Warm-Up Sends Natural Gas Futures Lower

       8:53 AM

Closed my short position for a small win. Still learning! 

Great to hear Grant!

I was thinking today's downward dive would put you ahead. 

The learning never stops!

From NGI, after close comments:

Warmer Outlook for Late March Drives Natural Gas Futures Sell-Off; Cash Declines

     5:43 PM    

Warm trends in the long-range outlook Monday proved a letdown for a natural gas futures bulls, further easing any lingering concerns over lean end-of-season stockpiles. In the spot market, some spring-like temperatures in the forecast this week inspired declines for much of the Lower 48; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. stumbled 11.0 cents to $2.740/MMBtu

From Natural Gas Intelligence Tuesday Morning:

Storage Picture Supportive, but Mild Forecast Sees Natural Gas Futures Trading Lower Early

Closing comments from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Modest Gain for Natural Gas Futures as Forecast Demand Ticks Higher

     5:44 PM    

Natural gas futures managed to rebound somewhat Tuesday from the prior session’s losses as afternoon weather data trended colder, and stockpiles remain low for this time of year. Warmer temperatures forecast for the eastern half of the Lower 48 limited buyer interest in the spot market, though West Texas saw double-digit gains; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg.fell 0.5 cents to $2.735/MMBtu.

Early Wednesday morning NGI:

Natural Gas Futures Steady on Overnight Warming Trends, Supportive Storage

       8:56 AM

metmike: Extended forecasts with warmth can't keep ng down. There isn't enough time left in the heating season for it to substantively increase storage like would be the case in January......... and seasonal price strength in ng also provides support...........along with tomorrows very bullish storage report.....so we are higher this morning. 

 In addition, I think the market thinks that current prices are relatively cheap for how low the storage is in relation to most years. Out of the prior 14 years, only 2014 was lower!

Good point Larry!

NGI:

Natural Gas Futures Take Hit After Somewhat Bearish EIA Storage Miss.

After the spike lower immediately following the EIA number, natural gas has stayed supported closer to the highs than the lows.

The operational 12z GFS was slightly cooler.....mainly at the end of week 1 and start of week 2.

           EIA -204 bcf

NGI: Natural Gas Futures Take Hit After Somewhat Bearish EIA Storage Miss                                                                                                                            

We just barely close the gap lower from Sunday night's open, when the price touched 2.856.

This is often seen as a gap and crap formation technically on the charts as the bearish forces that caused the market to open much lower than the low of Friday(on Sunday NIght)  are exhausted.

That would be the MUCH warmer weather forecasts.........which have not changed...........in fact, have been extended in farther out............but are just a sign that warm weather can't keep us going lower in March, with seasonals very strong, storage low and prices low and of course, the heating season just about over.

Closing comments from NGI:

Natural Gas Futures Rally for Third Straight Day, But Upside Said Limited

     5:24 PM    

After the market initially expressed some disappointment over a large inventory withdrawal that came in on the bearish side of consensus...

From NGI:     

‘Unimpressive’ Long-Range Forecast as Natural Gas Futures Down Early

       8:54 AM