NG: week of 3/25
17 responses | 0 likes
Started by WxFollower - March 25, 2019, 3:29 p.m.

Today's 12Z GFS and the 6-10 of the Euro suites were all significantly colder than they were at 0Z. That's the primary reason for strength this afternoon imho. However, the 11-15 of the 12Z of the EPS and CDN ens were warmer than their prior runs, which allowed it to come back down some.

By metmike - March 25, 2019, 7:18 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks very much Larry!

I’m in Detroit this week with my 93 year old dad, after having my car smashed up by a drunk driver on the way up here which resulted in an unexpected stay at the Holiday Inn at the half way point.

I’ll try to catch up a bit tonight or Tuesday morning if possible.


Monday weather that affects natural gas prices as a result of expected (changes in) heating demand(HDD's)

Tuesday Weather:

Wednesday Weather:

Thursday Weather:

Friday Weather:

Saturday Weather:

By WxFollower - March 25, 2019, 7:29 p.m.
Like Reply

You're welcome. That's terrible but more importantly thank goodness you're ok (I assume)!

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:34 a.m.
Like Reply

Yep, doing great.

If the guy that fled the scene had not been chased/caught by a Good Samaritan, I would feel pretty violated as I would have been the victim of a serious crime and the perpetrator would have not been held accountable.

It was actually kind of exciting when the cop came to cover the accident, with me concerned the guy got away and/or he didnt have insurance and he was reporting information that kept improving my situation.

1. The guy pursuing him had called 911 and was right behind him.

2. The cops caught up to him

3. He had  insurance

4. He failed the field sobriety test

5.  He blew 0.108 on the breathalyzer after being taken in

This is the guys name:  Wah Ra Nay Wtoo

Holy Cow, I looked that name up and found this:

                                Ra Nay Wtoo Wah - Paulding County Jail            



                                                        Ra Nay Htoo Wah            

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 1:06 a.m.
Like Reply

Natural Gas Intelligence Monday closing comments:

New Nadir for Permian Spot Prices; Natural Gas Futures Test Low End of Range


Natural gas futures finished close to even Monday as traders mulled looser balances on the one hand and a supportive storage deficit on the other. In the spot market, West Texas discounts shattered historical precedent as prices averaged well into negatives region-wide; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 1.5 cents to $2.445/MMBtu.

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:05 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
Like Reply

Look how fast the mild weather in December and early January caused us to close the storage gap below. But now, the gap has widened some vs the 5 year average and last year again because of extreme cold a couple of weeks ago.

We turned very chilly last March into April with some unusually late season the current deficit will erode during that time frame. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2014 through 2018. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:07 p.m.
Like Reply

Last Thursday's EIA report:

Natural Gas Futures Reaction Muted After On-Target EIA Report, Small Bearish Revision

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          -47 BCF was the number                

We bounced a bit shortly after the released, then dropped to slightly lower prices from just before the release and are just hovering in a tight range now.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region03/15/1903/08/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East245  262  -17  -17   276  -11.2  310  -21.0  
Midwest268  287  -19  -19   320  -16.3  374  -28.3  
Mountain62  66  -4  -4   90  -31.1  115  -46.1  
Pacific96  102  -6  -6   169  -43.2  200  -52.0  
South Central471  473 R -2  -2   603  -21.9  699  -32.6  
   Salt135  129  6  6   183  -26.2  194  -30.4  
   Nonsalt336  344 R -8  -8   419  -19.8  506  -33.6  
Total1,143  1,190 R -47  -47   1,458  -21.6  1,699  -32.7  
The reported revision caused the stocks for March 08, 2019 to change from 1,186 Bcf to 1,190 Bcf.  As a result, the implied net change between the weeks ending March 01 and March 08 changed from -204 Bcf to -200 Bcf.
By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:08 p.m.
Like Reply

These were the temperatures that went into last Thursday's EIA report, 7 days, ending the previou Friday.

MUCH, MUCH milder than the week before that.

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:10 p.m.
Like Reply

These were the 7 day temperatures and anomaly, ending last Friday that will go into this Thursday's EIA report/number:

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:15 p.m.
Like Reply

These natural gas price charts aren't the greatest but they do show a likely seasonal bottom.

The Feb price dropped below the Jan lows and reversed higher.

Huge support in that zone on the yearly chart, with numerous trips down to between around 2.5 to 2.6 that solidly held. 

After the spike higher from the record cold, natural gas has been struggling. Is this a bull flag? Or is the top in and we go against strong postive seasonal price action because supplies hitting the market and expectations of a growing surplus later this year pressure the price?

NG 7 days*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1549311628&endDate=1549916428

Natural gas 3 months below

Natural gas 1 year chart

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
Like Reply

This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

The point of showing it is to show that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up from mid February into April. 

The lows in Feb., would be perfectly timed with a typical, end of Winter low, which is followed by increasing prices over 80% of the time into early Spring. 

One should also note that at this time of year, when most of the heating season is over, weather/cold temperatures that increases heating demand in the high population centers has less power to determine long as supplies aren't precariously low(they are low but not extremely low) or the demand/supply fundamentals are not extremely tight. Fundamentals are actually pretty bearish........note the price is still fairly low even though storage is still less than the 5 year average.....because the market feels very comfortable...... is projecting additional storage gains from supplies gushing in.

Last Thursday's EIA report was nothing to write home about.

Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart

By metmike - March 26, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - March 27, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
Like Reply

Wednesday morning NGI comment:

Mild April Pattern Bringing Bears Out to Play; Natural Gas Futures Down Early

Remember, the front month April, expires today.

By metmike - March 28, 2019, 1:12 a.m.
Like Reply

Natural Gas Intelligence closing comments for Wednesday trading:

Weather, LNG Drop-Off Weigh Down Natural Gas Futures; Permian Cash Can’t Catch Break


Facing bearish headwinds from a recent drop in export demand and a mild long-range temperature outlook, natural gas futures sold off into the front month expiration Wednesday. In the spot market, a supply glut and ongoing constraints continued to invert West Texas prices; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg.sank 16.5 cents to $2.305/MMBtu.

By metmike - March 28, 2019, 10:34 a.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - March 28, 2019, 10:53 a.m.
Like Reply

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EIA -36 bcf   NG market did not react much                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region03/22/1903/15/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East225  245  -20  -20   246  -8.5  287  -21.6  
Midwest248  268  -20  -20   288  -13.9  354  -29.9  
Mountain62  62  0  0   88  -29.5  115  -46.1  
Pacific104  96  8  8   166  -37.3  201  -48.3  
South Central467  471  -4  -4   603  -22.6  700  -33.3  
   Salt137  135  2  2   181  -24.3  195  -29.7  
   Nonsalt329  336  -7  -7   422  -22.0  506  -35.0  
Total1,107  1,143  -36  -36   1,392  -20.5  1,658  -33.2  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Working gas in storage was 1,107 Bcf as of Friday, March 22, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 36 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 285 Bcf less than last year at this time and 551 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,658 Bcf. At 1,107 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

By metmike - March 30, 2019, 11:57 a.m.
Like Reply

Closing comments Friday from Natural Gas Intelligence:

Waha Prices Gain But Still Negative; Natural Gas Futures Fade as April Weather Looking Mild


With warmer trends in the latest weather data pointing to a potentially fast start to the injection season, natural gas futures faded Friday. In the spot market, West Texas prices continued to trade on the negative side of the ledger but eased off of the previous day’s historic lows; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg.tacked on 18.5 cents to $2.345/MMBtu.