Natural Gas Week of May 27, 2019
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Started by metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:07 p.m.

May Natural Gas expires on May 29th, Wednesday. 

Residential cooling demand via electricity generated by burning natural gas, is increasing now seasonally and will be the most important  market trading item with potential for big changes because of changes in the weather forecast(cooling degree days):

Sunday Weather:

Monday Weather:  Heat ridge fizzles Southeast but grows farther northwest and dries things out in week 2.

Tuesday Weather: New pattern taking shape, shifting heat, drying out.

Wednesday Weather: Things starting to move finally with the new pattern. Heat increases West, cooling Northeast.

Thursday Weather: Pattern has changed but rains have increased since yesterday.

Friday Weather: No extreme heat the next 2 weeks. Big rain maker next week. Where will it track?

Saturday Weather: No extreme heat. Big rain system next week means everything.

Sunday weather:  No extreme heat. Huge rain system this week. How far north will the rains go?

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:08 p.m.
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By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:12 p.m.
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Look for the big injections to continue..........depending on the weather.  We've quickly gone from a deficit vs 2018 to a surplus(first time in a long while). Next up, a surplus vs the 5 year average which will not happen until later this year, possibly Summer if its cool this year.


Working gas in storage was 1,753 Bcf as of Friday, May 17, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 100 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 137 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 274 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,027 Bcf. At 1,753 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:13 p.m.
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Latest Release  May 23

Forecast  104 BCF  ACTUAL 100


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
May 30, 2019 10:30  100B
May 23, 2019 10:30100B104B106B
May 16, 2019 10:30106B104B85B
May 09, 2019 10:3085B87B123B
May 02, 2019 10:30123B 92B
Apr 25, 2019 10:3092B91B92B

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 17, 2019   |  Released: May 23, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 30, 2019 

                            +100 BCF                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region05/17/1905/10/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East353  330  23  23   296  19.3  369  -4.3  
Midwest364  336  28  28   285  27.7  416  -12.5  
Mountain89  82  7  7   106  -16.0  131  -32.1  
Pacific186  174  12  12   212  -12.3  245  -24.1  
South Central762  731  31  31   718  6.1  867  -12.1  
   Salt249  240  9  9   225  10.7  266  -6.4  
   Nonsalt513  491  22  22   493  4.1  601  -14.6  
Total1,753  1,653  100  100   1,616  8.5  2,027  -13.5  
By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:17 p.m.
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These were the temperatures during the 7 day period for that last report.   Chilly in the Northeast with some unseasonably late HDD's. Very warm Northwest/N.Rockies.

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:21 p.m.
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Here are the temperatures from the last 7 days, ending this last Friday that will be used for the next report, this week.

Big heat in the Southeast to Midatlantic accumulated some significant cooling degree days for so early in the season.

Very chilly N.Plains to Southwest. Some HDD's in the far Upper Midwest to Rockies but lower CDD's than average in the Southwest.

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:25 p.m.
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This seasonal price chart below is for 2 decades, ending back in 2009. Not sure on what they use exactly to make their calculations but I've been following seasonal patterns since the early 90's(I paid thousands of dollars in the 90's to get seasonal charts for every commodity updated every 2 years) and this graph does a nice job at capturing the seasonality of natural gas.

This shows that natural gas has a strong historical tendency to go up after mid February to mid June. We are getting close to a time frame when ng seasonals become very negative, from around mid June thru August.

A cool Summer, with currently bearish fundamentals/huge supplies should cause new lows.

This was offset in 2019 because of massive supplies that increased storage more than any other April in history vs 2018, when we withdrew the most in history. 

Natural Gas prices have shown some life to the upside the last 2 weeks because of an intense heat ridge in the Southeast causing a great deal of early season cooling demand.  

Natural Gas Futures (NG) Seasonal Chart

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:31 p.m.
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May Natural Gas expires on May 29th, Wednesday. 

Record late season withdrawals last April......2018 have only made the big injections that much more bearish on the year to year comparisions. So we have experienced something that's extraordinarily rare in the month of April-new lows(maybe has happened only once during the last 2 decades).

We also erased the long lived storage deficit vs the previous year and turned it into a surplus(but still well below the 5 year average)

Looking at the chart below, you can see the nice bounce during May from expectations of the intense heat in the Southeast, causing some record cooling demand for May in that region.  The bounce from that heat was completely dialed in as we spiked higher on Monday May 20th. The chart doesn't show it but we actually got just above 2.7 in the June contract, then dropped off for several days, only to bounce again last Thursday/Friday.  The market will be reacting to changes in the cooling degree day forecasts this week, thru the rest of the Summer.

NG 7 days*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1549311628&endDate=1549916428

Natural gas 3 months below

By WxFollower - May 27, 2019, 12:12 a.m.
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 Thanks, Mike, as always. I had DDs very similar at 12Z today as what was shown on Fri at 12Z for both the GEFS and the EPS.

By metmike - May 27, 2019, 12:51 a.m.
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Thank you Larry!

The natural gas market, being not far from unchanged acts like one would expect based on this too.

By metmike - May 28, 2019, 6:19 p.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence after the close:

Production Helps Provoke Natural Gas Futures Sell-Off

     5:41 PM    

Rebounding production and a lack of significant cooling demand gains from the latest forecasts facilitated selling in the natural gas futures market Tuesday. In the spot market, pipeline maintenance continued to pressure Midcontinent and West Texas prices; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 14.0 cents to $1.945/MMBtu.

By metmike - May 28, 2019, 11:27 p.m.
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The Next LNG Boom Will Dwarf The Last One

This year could be the biggest year yet in terms of LNG volumes of projects given the go-ahead, analysts say.  

This year is likely to set a record for volume of new project approvals, Michael Stoppard, Vice President and Chief Strategist for Global Gas at IHS Markit, wrote in March this year.

“The projects first out of the gates seem likely to serve as a “firing pistol” to initiate a new phase of development,” he said, noting that IHS Markit sees LNG demand rising from 320 million tons (mt) in 2018 to 465 mt by the mid-2020s, and exceeding 630 mt by the mid-2030s.

By metmike - May 29, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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By metmike - May 30, 2019, 1 a.m.
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NGI closing Wednesday:  


Production Decline Boosts Natural Gas Futures; Forecasts Mixed


A day/day drop in the latest production numbers helped natural gas futures rally into the front month expiration Wednesday, although forecasts were mixed on the outlook for June heat. In the spot market, strong cooling demand in the Southeast kept prices there steady as the Midcontinent saw more negative trades; the NGI Spot Gas National Avg. climbed 11.5 cents to $2.060/MMBtu. 

By metmike - May 30, 2019, 10:57 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 24, 2019   |  Released: May 30, 2019 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 6, 2019 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              +114 BCF BEARISH!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
5-year average
Region05/24/1905/17/19net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East383  353  30  30   324  18.2  397  -3.5  
Midwest399  364  35  35   311  28.3  444  -10.1  
Mountain93  89  4  4   112  -17.0  136  -31.6  
Pacific198  186  12  12   220  -10.0  254  -22.0  
South Central793  762  31  31   744  6.6  893  -11.2  
   Salt253  249  4  4   234  8.1  273  -7.3  
   Nonsalt540  513  27  27   511  5.7  620  -12.9  
Total1,867  1,753  114  114   1,711  9.1  2,124  -12.1  

By metmike - May 30, 2019, 11:31 a.m.
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Natural Gas Intelligence comments:


EIA’s 114 Bcf Injection ‘Quite the Bearish Print,’ Prompts NatGas Futures Sell-Off

    11:20 AM    

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a much larger-than-expected 114 Bcf injection into U.S. natural gas stocks..

After the close:

Bears Seize Natural Gas Momentum on EIA Surprise, Mixed Forecasts

     5:36 PM    

A large bearish miss in the latest government inventory data and forecasts showing underwhelming levels of June cooling demand had natural gas.

By metmike - May 31, 2019, 9:17 a.m.
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Natural Gas Market Mulling Balances; July Called Slightly Higher

     8:57 AM    

With the latest forecasts contributing only small adjustments to the outlook and the market continuing to mull balances following a hefty weekly inventory build, natural gas futures were trading slightly higher early Friday. The Nymex July contract was trading around $2.567/MMBtu as of 8:30 a.m. ET, up 2.0 cents

By metmike - June 1, 2019, 12:16 p.m.
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Sat wx updated