See you later May!!! Do something to make somebody feel loved today! Then, after observing the positive results, make a good habit out of it!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
Blocking Heat ridge in the Southeast is dead.
Stormy outbreaks have ended for the Midwest from the long lived blocking pattern but it's not completely dry.
A key part of the forecast for grains is the southern stream system next week and how far north it will go. Models the last 2 days have shifted it far enough north for it to dump on the water logged areas again.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Not that far from average.
Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades.
Highs for days 3-7:
Major pattern change!!! Temperatures are close to average.
N.Plains warms up, Northeast cools down. Still very warm to hot in the South but not as hot in the Southeast.
Temperature pattern change. Red very warm anomalies from the Northwest to N.Plains., Chilly blue anomalies shift to Northeast.......but nothing extreme.
Not as hot in the Southeast but still pretty hot in the South.
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Blistering heat in the Southeast moderates.
Huge pattern change! Highs pressure and dry weather dominate part of the time but a weak system/cold front(cool air Northeast) brings scattered rains................until midweek, then the rains pick up.
The midweek system will slow down enough and affect the very wet areas with more unwanted rains which is a problem.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
More progressive pattern as the blocking heat ridge in the Southeast is dead. The excessive rains and severe weather threat is lower.
However, reinforcing cold fronts will have scattered lighter rains, then potentially a moderate/heavy rain event in the middle/late part of next week. HOW FAR NORTH IT GOES MATTERS! This will bring some unwanted rains to waterlogged areas, even as things dry out a bit overall the next 5 days.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Main Excessive Rainfall threat has ended! However, because soils are saturated, there is a slight risk for issues with isolated heavy downpours.
|Current Day 1 Forecast|
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19
|Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts|
|Current Day 2 Forecast|
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19
|Current Day 3 Forecast|
Severe Storm risk-the outbreaks are over!!! However, there is still a slight risk the next several days with weaker systems.
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri|
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Current Dew Points
Higher moisture has been pushed to the deep south.
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
The Cornbelt has had way too much rain......no kidding. There will be net drying the next 5 days in most places but others still see scat. shwrs, then a bigger system in the middle of next week.
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Surprise, surprise, surprise!! Currently, there is 0% of the Cornbelt/Midwest with drought. There is no place even slightly dry there. It has been dry(and very warm/hot) in the Southeast though which has some drought. The Southeast drought has really increased since last week!!!! It will continue to get worse.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market will be keying on precip forecasts for planting concerns for the next couple of weeks.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Friday: Another day with good/strong agreement on the trough around the West Coast. Strong stream from the Pacific will be coming in under this. Where it's aimed downstream will depend on any upper level ridging or no ridging. The long lived Southeast heat ridge still looks to die in week 2(possibly shifting westward to the W.Gulf to N.Mex/S.TX).
Saturday: Still a trough along the West Coast. Strong flow from the Pacific dipping into the trough and being aimed across the US. Will it be a strong, active jet stream coming going west to east in zonal fashion? Or will the flow pattern buckle at some point and become amplified and extreme beyond 2 weeks?
Sunday: Good agreement on very deep trough/low along to just off the West Coast. What will happen downstream? Strong, active zonal flow or amplification of high pressure and heat?
Monday: Very strong agreement on the extremely deep trough/low along the West Coast. Today, this leads to strong ridge building/amplification downstream (as the jet stream buckles) with a heat ridge, anywhere from the Plains to points farther east....maybe in the center of the country. This would SHUT DOWN the rains and turn up the heat for the Cornbelt. If the large scale features are positioned differently,...trough farther east in the Rockies/Plains, it could be the complete opposite.
Tuesday: Similar to yesterday. Trough West, ridge building in the center of the country.
Wednesday: The mean is characterized by a more zonal flow look today but that's just averaging out some extremes. Still the Upper Level low along the West Coast, to the Gulf of Alaska and potential ridge amplification downstream, favored spot is Southcentral US to the W.Gulf states. This a slight shift in the main features and this could go from mostly dry to wet again.
Thursday: Trough to cut off low along the West Coast is deeper today and very impressive. What will happen downstream? Ridge building or more ammo to start up another stormy weather pattern? Not as dry looking as the previous few days.
Friday: Still the deep trough along or off the West Coast to possibly the Gulf of Alaska(not as deep today) and the downstream ridging, building into the SouthCentral US(Plains). Weak trough along the East Coast.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 15, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Thursday: Much different than the Canadian model above and tremendous differences/spread for individual members, so great uncertainty. Best agreement is for the upper level ridge in the Southeast to be replaced by weak troughing.
Friday: Pattern change from what we have now with heat ridge in the Southeast broken down but too much spread on how what it will be to take a serious gander.........other than to think that it will be more progressive than the recent pattern.
Saturday: Several members want to greatly deepen an upper level low in SW Canada and possibly buckle the jet stream with an upper level ridge pumped up downstream, which could be any where from the Midwest to points east and south. Just as many have something different.
Sunday: Uncertainty but the recent pattern of a heat ridge in the Southeast and excessive rains around the periphery is not one of the solutions.
Monday: Similar pattern to the Canadian model but large scale features are shifted west/northwest. The deep upper level low is from SW Canada to the Gulf of Alaska and downstream upper level high/ridge is from the Rockies to Plains. This also allows for some troughing, even farther downstream along the East Coast and cooler temps there.
Tuesday: Deep trough to cutoff low anywhere from the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska with amplifying upper level ridge down stream(Plains?) late in week 2.
Wednesday: Same as yesterday but with more members featuring a trough in the East/Northeast. No question, a dry pattern with the Gulf cut off and no ridging in the Southeast. Warmest temps in the Plains to West.
Thursday: All sorts of solutions from a heat ridge to a cut off upper level low in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.
Friday: Still a great deal of variation with solutions. Best agreement might be upper level ridge in the Plains and upper level low somewhere in the vicinity of the PAC Northwest.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Tuesday: A weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the far Southeast,tells us the long lived heat ridge will be going bye bye!!!! Now, we have an extensive positive anomaly along the Canadian border in the new pattern...........which will be drier with the heat ridge not steering Gulf air north and blocking progression. Don't see the negative anomaly along the West Coast here but its there on the Canadian model.
Wednesday: Weak NEGATIVE anomaly in the East is even more confirmation that the long lived heat ridge will be dead. Very cool in the East. Positive anomaly in the Plains to West. This is a major pattern change.
Thursday: Very weak negative anomaly very far Southeast/Florida. Positive anomaly Northeast Canada.
Friday: Exactly like Thursday but much uncertainty though it looks progressive.
Saturday: The greatest positive anomalies are at the higher latitudes but most of the US looks to have slightly above 500 mb height anomalies, which means warm temperatures.
Sunday: Same as Saturday
Monday: NOT the same as the last 2 days. Growing Positive anomaly in the N.Rockies is noteworthy as it represents the current, favored locations for a building upper level ridge. Along with a modest negative anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico, this is the recipe for a DRY pattern, with the GOM shut down. There would be some heat close the ridge and on this model the heat is most likely farther west, than on the Canadian model solution above. This is almost the complete opposite of the recent pattern that has dominated in May.
Tuesday: Significant positive anomaly N.Plains!
Wednesday: Big positive anomaly in the N.Plains again and now, a modest negative anomaly in the Northeast, along with a slight negative anomaly off the West Coast. This is suggestive of a trough/ridge/trough couplet. Warm under the ridge and likely dry. Amplification could take on an Omega Block signature but that speculating. There still could be some moisture and energy from the West Coast trough which gets aimed towards the Plains.
Thursday: Positive anomaly in the N.Plains has weakened. Negative anomaly along the West Coast. Great uncertainty but not as dry overall vs the last few days.
Friday: Weak positive anomaly in the center of the country.........stronger at higher latitudes(Canada). Weak negative anomaly along the West Coast, stronger one in Southeast Canada which mean cool in the Northeast.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Saturday: Still negative AO with the high latitudes not changing a great deal but NAO increases a bit. Mid latitudes could be changing, with potential for more warming from the south in a manner that these indices are not designed to capture well(since they are NORTHERN stream flow indicators). PNA a tad positive.
Sunday: AO and NAO increasing to almost 0 near the end of week 2(after being solidly negative for a couple of weeks)...........suggesting a pattern change that takes out the northern stream influence that has been around for quite some time. PNA near 0.
Monday: AO and NAO increasing. PNA decreasing. Pattern change?
Tuesday: AO and NAO increasing but stay a bit negative. PNA plunging to negative.
Wednesday: AO increases back to near 0. NAO, PNA slightly negative. Nothing strong to key on as indicators.
Thursday: AO, NAO, PNA all slightly negative.
Friday: AO increases to near 0. NAO and PNA slightly negative.
Saturday: The same as yesterday. It's getting to the warm season when these indices are not much help anyway.
Sunday: A0 up to 0, NAO and PNA a bit negative.
Monday: All slightly negative. Could have a pattern change later in week(not because of these indices though)
Tuesday: AO, NAO, PNA all a tad negative. Nothing to see here.
Wednesday: A tad negative. The PNA has a wide spread at the end of week 2, some strongly negative.
Thursday. Slight negative for NAO/AO, near 0 PNA.
Friday. Slight negative for NAO/AO and near 0 PNA again.
Saturday: Same. Suggests zonal flow.
Monday: AO around 0. NAO increasing late and PNA dropping below zero late. Indications of the pattern change, with major amplification as the strong jet stream buckles. We will see a deep trough somewhere from off the West Coast to the Gulf of Alaska to slightly east and a down stream upper level ridge, somewhere from the Rockies to points east.
Tuesday: All 3 indices a bit negative.
Wednesday: AO a tad negative. NAO and PNA near 0.
Thursday: AO, NAO and PNA slightly negative and not telling us anything.
Friday: AO, NAO, PNA all a smidgeon less than 0. Nothing to write on a forum about.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Tuesday: We're finally seeing changes being called for over the last week, with below normal precip expanding in the northern 1/3rd, with the new heat building from the West to the N.Plains associated with and upper level ridge(cool Northeast).
Wednesday. Look for the changes to continue as a result of the long advertised week 2 pattern change..............which will be the opposite of the recent one. Warmth shifts West along with a cooling trend in the Northeast, to possibly the Great Lakes. Much drier than recent forecasts in the 11-14 day period, however, a new system early in the 6-10 day period has added rains for a couple of days. You will note that in the update.
Thursday: Unsure now except that the Northeast looks the driest. More rains added in the extended today vs yesterday, especially in the south.
Friday: It will likely be pretty wet again in the south. There is a very wet system in the S.Cornbelt early week 2(6-10 day). Temperatures look warmest in the N.Plains. From there to the Northeast looks the driest.
| Precipitation Probability|
|the 8-14 day outlooks|
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