6-21-26: After spending more time to analyze the current set up with research/data and better discernment, I changed the title to more of a strong statement, rather than a question to help the message sink in better for our readers that care to be enlightened.
We should always remember that capital preservation is the #1 objective for everybody.
The next year and Donald Trump's impeachment will cause one of the riskiest times ever to be long in the stock market.
There is no doubt that investors who left their money in the stock market have made a killing over the past 100 years by just using a "trend is your friend" mentality.
There is a large group of people, led by brokers and fund/money managers that insist that we should never try to time our investments or the market.
Just use their impressive results and those of the markets, especially when the market accelerates higher as evidence that we can be confident in their skill and that the markets will continue to go up.
Just look at the long term trends charts. Just look at the past X or XX number of years. Don't try to time investments. Don't worry during corrections because the market will always recover.
This is actually NOT true all the time.
There have been 3 very noteworthy periods during my lifetime when that was absolutely NOT true.
1. During the decade of the 1970's.
2. After the dot.com bubble burst in the late 1990's.
3. Potentially right now.
I'll discuss all 3 periods here.
How could investors possibly not make tons of money in a market like this below? Or even worse, lose money being long in a market like this below???
How could this not be as long as they just keep/kept it in the stock market that always has corrections but ALWAYS makes new highs.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
Instead of buying low and selling high being the theme for success of us short term (commodities) traders, the theme is buy high and never sell until retirement, then sell higher.
Looking at the chart above, that has ALWAYS worked for people with money in the market for more than 15 years.
Forget the Great Depression which was almost a century ago.
There were 2 periods that lasted a decade+ when many to most investors DID not make money and many LOST money if they picked THE WRONG TIMING. They lost money, not just when the value of the stock market went down but also when it stayed close to unchanged.
They lost money from paying commissions/fees to brokers and money managers. They lost money from the value of their money dropping because of inflation.
The current situation is similar and also different to the environment just before those 2 decade long periods of stocks causing a negative overall return for many investors.
Let's review them.
1. The late 1960's thru the early 1980's.
2. The decade+ after the end of the 1990's.
The 1970's featured a bad economy with stagflation. Low growth and high inflation. Let's assume that the war in Iran is over and things will get better even though there is tremendous uncertainty here because the 2 entities making the decisions, Donald Trump and Iran are the least reliable on the planet.
It will take well into 2027 to restore the global oil market supplies/storage, that includes drawing down the SPR's of every country that need to be restocked, so its unlikely that oil prices can get back to where they were to start this year for a long time, despite the recent plunge. Donald Trump's illegal economy killing/inflation causing tariffs are also likely to go away too later this year.
The 1970's featured the OPEC oil price shock that lasted for many years, however and it helped cause SUSTAINED high inflation. This was the worst enemy of the stock market with the inverse relationship unmistakable for rock solid, fundamental reasons.High interest rates offered by other investments, like bonds that compete with stocks also helped suppress the stock market.
Cheap, reliable energy prices are the lifeblood for every developed county's economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisis
I'm actually making the case that 2026 onward from this point will probably NOT be like the 1970s with the crude oil and probably not the economy. The recent agreement between Donald Trump and Iran tells us so.
However, what is as close of a match right now as we can find in our 250 year history is this:
From the start of 1973 through Nixon's resignation in August 1974, the S&P 500 fell about 50%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-stock-market-watergate-133736317.html
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Anybody that doesn't acknowledge what is extremely likely to happen after the November 2026 elections is in denial and the consequences could be extremely profound for our country and the stock market.
1. The Ds are very likely to take over the majority in the House. Maybe not the Senate but maybe even there too. Regardless, the new D majority will immediately start the impeachment investigation of Donald Trump. Near 100% of that if they have a majority. Near 100% that they will vote to impeach Donald Trump. Impeachment by the House ONLY has no teeth as we witnessed in the complete nonsense, political impeachment for a phone call to Zelensky in 2018, trying to dig up dirt on the corrupt Biden family's abuse of Joe's position in Ukraine.
This WILL BE PROFOUNDLY different. There are many dozens of blatantly corrupt and impeachable offenses committed by Donald Trump in his 2nd term. This last one, committing treason against the United States by following the leader of a foreign country is the latest and the biggest. Causing the worst global energy crisis in history. No allies support. Throwing our National Intelligence Agency and others under the bus. 50 billion from tax payers. Gas prices +$1.50 to get............NOTHING. In fact to go backwards! Giving Iran their wish list to get the Strait of Hormuz open again(something we had before). With this agreement, another betrayal of America's long term interests and our brave soldiers that gave up so much for his illegal, unjustified, unprovoked war of choice.
Make no mistake, the impeachment investigation will bring all this out and the news media will make it headline news all day long, every day. There will be little question in the minds of non MAGA Americans that the investigation proved indisputably that Donald Trump should be impeached and removed from office for just this(there are dozens of other incidents).
Donald Trump has committed blatant treason!!!!
Started by metmike - May 13, 2026, 8:16 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120200/
So the investigation will not have a problem uncovering the POWERFUL, LEGIT evidence that more than makes their case for Donald Trump to be impeached. Most Americans will be FOR the impeachment and removal from office. The 1 thing missing to finish Donald Trump off is that the Senate requires a 2/3rds majority to impeach AND REMOVE the president from office.
They will NOT be able to do that without XX number of Rs in the Senate voting to impeach Donald Trump. (Fetterman is a fake D and will always vote R).
However, since Donald Trump has wrecked the R party. There is actually a good chance that they finally see this perfect opportunity to finally free themselves and the party forever! To never have to fear him again because he will be gone forever and the R party can begin healing.
Impeaching Donald Trump would actually be a gift to the Rs if they hope to win the White House in 2028 with President Vance leading the last year in the White House without the constant insane bombastic lies, wrecking the country and wrecking the world that are causing support for the Rs to bail BECAUSE OF Donald Trump.
This analysis has nothing to do with my personal feelings about Donald Trump. I want people to think about how this will influence the stock market using authentic facts that are political.
I feel strongly that if they got rid of Donald Trump early enough, the R party would see a big recovery, the country would benefit, our country‘s reputation would start to recover and a Vance/Rubio ticket in 2028 would WIN.
Not doing that, turns whoever runs on the D ticket into a NOT Donald Trump candidate which WILL WIN it for them in the next presidential election.
NOT Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
NOT Donald Trump won in 2020.
NOT Joe Biden/Harris won in 2024.
NOT Donald Trump/Vance will win in 2028 unless the Rs get rid of Donald Trump fast!!!
I think the difference between a President Vance's leadership in 2027/28 compared to Donald Trump would make him look even better!!! All the Galactic negatives............GONE forever. All the Rs need to do is for XX R's in the Senate to vote to impeach Donald Trump after the House does it.
Regardless of whether Donald Trump(the president of the stock market) survives or not, the battle going on will be brutal to the stock market at times! That a battle will take place is not debatable.
Also, after the Ds get control of the House they will be empowered to stop some of Donald Trump's agenda. Not good for the president of the stock market.
Much more to come:
Most of us older folks will remember the Iran Hostage crisis that likely played a role in President Carter getting crushed so badly by Ronald Reagan. Of course, high oil/gas prices, inflation and high interest rates were deadly too.
Here's a review:
Iran hostage crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis
The stock market still did not fully recover early in Reagan's first term. It took until the mid 1980's to finally take off again.
The other REALLY bad time to invest in the stock market during my life time was towards the end of the dot.com bubble. The decade+ market period after that, if you entered then resulted in a LOSS of equity compared to your entry.
There were good years that recovered "some of your losses" (then the 2008/9 crash) but the overall return for stock market investors who entered in 1999 (late in the spike up bubble caused by over-exuberance of dot.com money) didn't get back above break even until the early 2010's. And that doesn't consider the various fees that fund managers get, even when their investors lose money.
Of course the tech heavy NASDAQ took the longest to recover:
Thu 23 Apr 2015
This article is more than 11 years old
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/nasdaq-new-record-high-dotcom-bubble
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While this is intentionally the most extreme example and the current AI over exuberance is nowhere near that of the dot.com bubble, it shows that there are in fact really bad times to put in large sums of NEW money.
If you are adding to a large long term position or investing small amounts over time(like a retirement account) that averages and spreads out your entry price or building a position, the mentality is completely different than taking $200,000 of not invested money all at once during one of the least favorable, grossly overbought and overvalued times in history. This is extraordinarily risky with a risk reward right now greatly exceeding the VAST majority of stock market risk/reward assessments during my lifetime.
Why is the current market overvalued?
One thing is that no markets keep going up with just minor corrections that are impossible to time. I just gave you 2 time frames that qualify as more than just the minor corrections. Where entering at the wrong time took you over a decade to get back to break even.
When we go back to analyze why stocks did so badly, it's easy to analyze and understand in the rear view mirror.
What makes it tough is to astutely see the powerful signs BEFORE it happens with accuracy.
There have been stock market guru's predicting a bear market or market crash for 10 years (not me) and all of them have been wrong and all of them lost out on doubling or tripling their money by not being invested.
What makes this time unique?
Please keep in mind that I'm NOT predicting a stock market crash, even though the odds are elevated for the next 2+ years.
Let me explain exactly why the current market risk is the highest that its been in decades.
1. Donald Trump is the president of the stock market. 90% of the money flows recently are coming from wealthy people that have turned the stock market into an over valued Ponzi Scheme. It doesn't matter how negative the news is, the stock market keeps going higher. Gasoline prices up $1.50 at any other time in history would have caused major damage to the stock market. In 2026, however, it caused...........new record highs (after a small drop/correction immediately after the war started) because the stock market has become detached for the realities.
The stock market has become a self-fulfilling prophesy!
An expectation that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads to those expectations being validated
A self-fulfilling prophecy is an expectation – positive or negative – about something or someone that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads those expectations to become a reality. For example, if investors think the stock market will crash, they will buy fewer stocks, prices will start to decline, and the market will actually crash.
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In the stock market
The Pavlovian Trap Behind Every Market Rally
https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-pavlovian-trap-behind-every-market-rally-200669522
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I contend that these 2 profoundly powerful psychological impacts explain the current rich person's Ponzi Scheme. The stock market keeps soaring to new highs on massive over valuations, negative economic and other news that should be making it go lower(and eventually will).
Everybody knows that the stock market and rich people are Donald Trump's top priority. 90% of the new money flows is coming from this sector. THEY KNOW IT and THEY KNOW that as long as this dynamic exists(with Donald Trump having their backs), they can ignore everything else and just positively reinforce each other's investments by continuing to add more and more money to a realm that they can control with this behavior.
2. The stock market has become historically over bought and over valued. At levels that have never held in the past fro long and with the right trigger have caused corrections that take a decade to recover from. I am not predicting an inevitable crash in X months. That's impossible. Just identifying the clear fundamentals, some psychological that are the recipe for a huge drop and make buying now extremely risky. Totally based on rock solid/authentic facts that define valuation of stocks, trading psychology and President Trump's impact.
Here's the (over) valuation part of it on the next page!
Most people know what P/E ratios are.
Please read this wonderful article. Even if you don't agree, you have to agree that this is possible. With that being the case, the P/E10 ratio has only been higher than this 1 time in history. When we spiked up with the dot.com bubble.
This article examines market valuation using two key metrics: the Trailing Twelve-Months (TTM) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio and the P/E10 ratio. While the TTM P/E is a standard method, it has significant flaws. The P/E10, a more reliable metric, provides a clearer picture of long-term valuation trends. As of May 2026, the TTM P/E ratio is 25.9 and the latest P/E10 ratio is 39.9, the highest level since 2000.
Yale professor and Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance, has popularized the concept to a wider audience of investors and has selected the 10-year average of "real" (inflation-adjusted) earnings as the denominator. Shiller refers to this ratio as the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio, abbreviated as CAPE, or the more precise P/E10, which is our preferred abbreviation.
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Graphs/charts are always worth more than words.
We should keep in mind that anybody with money in the stock market is biased. They want stocks to rise to make money on their investments and interpret information with that hope in mind.
Advisors and money managers that invest people's money are extraordinarily biased. They make a living off of people giving them money to invest. Even when they lose people's money...........they make money.
None of them ever refuse to take money because they don't want to lose that money.
After the last decade+ of some the biggest returns in history, they can site their performance over that period as evidence of how good they are. Some of them probably are pretty good at what they do but none of them will stop taking money or take all their money out of the market for the reasons that I show.
Is a professional football player bullish on football? Is a football coach bullish their team? Does their team lose at times? It's what they do. They prepare their team every week to win.
However, they can't control the schedule. They can't control what the other team does. They can't control the weather but they still play the game. They can't reschedule games when their starting quarterback gets injured.
Money managers manage money for a living. They may be more bullish at times and they are not all the same but they are NOT sounding the alarm to warn current investors because it would be shooting themselves in the foot. Instead of taking money out of the market and reducing risk, they are feeding the over valued Ponzi Scheme and making it worse.
Individual investors, on the other hand have the option to protect their money during one of the riskiest times in history.....the impeachment and removal of a president of the United States.
I'm not saying the stock market will not go even higher and am not trying to predict the exact top, however I do predict tops and bottoms of markets for a living and am just saying that several indicators are screaming a warning message that a top in the stock market is likely based on the current dynamics and history.
And that’s even if Donald Trump is not removed from office.
I'm not a perma bear and in fact, picked the exact stock market , SHORT TERM bottom in early April after the brief Iran war correction down. Also predicted the top earlier based on the rounding top formation.
Start on this page:
Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - March 30, 2026, 1:52 a.m.
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The entire point is that making a NEW, large investment in the stock market right now is a bad idea because of the very high risks, particularly revolving around Donald Trump because those are huge and unprecedented.
The risk/reward ratio, outside of late 1999 has never been higher!
So what is a near risk free alternative?
I've traded commodities for a living the past 3+ decades and that's where I put my money, none of it is in the stock market right now, so I'm not claiming to be an expert on all the possible investment opportunities. Just doing a detailed, comprehensive analysis of the current stock market and inherent risks at this point in time.
However, this seems like a safe choice that at least beats inflation with no risk and the yields for 2 year government bonds (a time frame to get past the Trump removal risk to the stock market) are almost as high as the yields for 30 years bonds.
Fixed Income & Bond Yields
https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FIYieldTable?popupMode=Y&yldTabSelected=H
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https://www.thriveretire.com/blog/illusion-not-losing-money-holding-bond-maturity
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Let's say that a group bought a $200,000 2 year bond that earns 4%.
The return would be $8,000/year for 2 years = $16,000 and likely pretty close to inflation if it remains similar to current levels.
Holding the bond until maturity means getting the entire principle, $200,000 back.
However, during that 2 year period, an investor can sell that bond at whatever the market price is based on whatever the interest rate offered is.
If interest rates go UP to 5%, new bonds paying 5% will make your bond paying 4% worth less but only if you sell early. If interest rates drop to 3%, the value of your bond paying 4% will go up.............if you wanted to sell it early.
One scenario for a group that wanted to protect their capital during the impeachment of Donald Trump would be to hold a 2 year bond during the risk period and earn 4% interest. Then, AFTER the stock market has spiked lower and dialed in the impeachment, sell the bond and make your stock market investment AFTER the extremely negative, unfavorable risk/reward, Black Swan event period is over.
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CDs and high yielding savings accounts that pay interest rates that are at least keeping up with inflation are other options.
https://www.mybanktracker.com/savings-rates
https://www.mybanktracker.com/cd-rates
Honestly, this is not my area of expertise and this thread is focusing on what is likely to happen to the stock market when the president for the stock market, Donald Trump is impeached.
The worst thing that people can do is make the investment based on emotions. Watching the money sit for several years, while the stock market has huge returns that you miss out on, then FINALLY pulling the trigger at the exact worst time. ...........near the top. I provided a couple of examples of how it could take over a decade to get back your money when buying at tops(like this could be) in the past.
This is similar to investors that panic during corrections and SELL, exactly when they should be BUYING MORE! Or when new investors should be buying.
We here that timing the market is a losers game. That is true to some extent overall. But as I've proven, it was NOT true during specific periods in the past and this period has an extraordinarily high risk of being one of those.
The stock market is extremely over bought right now. The stock market is extremely over valued right now. The impeachment of the stock market‘s most important person is inevitable. The magnitude of that impact will depend on whether the Senate follows up to the House and impeaches and removes Donald Trump.
If no, then the damage to the stock market will be less but with the king of the stock market clearly being a lame duck.
If yes, then the downside plunge will be significant. Over-leveraged positions will be forced to liquidate from margin calls. Everybody bailing at the same time with no bids under the market are the recipe for huge XX% losses.
Make no mistake. Impeaching and removing the KING of the stock market will cause historic losses to the stock market…….IF that happens.
If there was just a 10% chance of that happening, it’s worth waiting to invest your money until after that risk passes.
I believe the chance is greater than 50% that Donald Trump will be removed from Office!!!
It's almost impossible to imagine such a scenario NOT causing a LARGE XX%, drop in the stock market.
The time to buy would never be just before that drop. NEVER!!!
The time to buy would be after the stock market dialed in the impeachment and removal. I pick highs and lows for a living(using weather patterns in markets that make weather the top price determinant during certain periods of the year) but would find it extremely challenging to pick the exact low and best time to buy but will mention some good clues.
1. AFTER the over leveraged longs have liquidated. There will be a definitive top in place BEFORE the market begins to trade the impeachment investigation and potential consequences. The buying to support new highs will dry up BEFORE THE NEWS. If the news supports a potential removal, initially the selling from everybody at once will cause a huge spike lower because matching buy orders will be hard to find without going much lower. This market is so overvalued and so overbought and so over leveraged that an historical removal of the King of the Stock Market WILL cause an historical drop lower. Somebody that bought in June/July 2026, might find their $200,000 investment, suddenly worth only $150,000 in the month when the biggest fall happens. As somebody that has experienced losing that amount of money fast because of a dumb decision, it's an extremely sick feeling. It can wreck your peace of mind if you dwell on it. You can't go back. Why were you so dumb???
However, I can make that back with smart decisions in other markets at other times from other opportunities. Cutting losses and finding a better opportunity is the path to success. A person that put that money in the stock market DOES NOT HAVE THAT LUXURY!!! They have all their eggs in that 1 basket. And the WORST thing to do after they bought high, is to sell low. Turning 1 bad decision into 2 bad decisions. A bad entry AND a bad exit!!! They are stuck and exposed to even bigger losses and at the same time are totally controlled by forces outside their control that determine where the stock market will go during the impeachment and possibly after that.
2. Wait for most of the bad news to be dialed in as much as possible. Market's including the stock market usually bottom when the bad news keeps getting worse but, then even more bad news can't make that market go lower anymore because everybody that wants to sell has sold. This is very challenging to discern in many news driven markets and because this will be a Black Swan event with multiple layers, a new layer could emerge so quickly that the average investor will not have the ability to pull the trigger at the perfect time to buy.
For instance, after the House has impeached Trump(this WILL happen) and the stock market is contemplating a vote in the Senate to determine whether he will be removed or not. It could come down to the vote of individual Rs. It's possible that from the get go, we know their vote and if they there's no path to a 2/3rds majority......the stock market low might be in but with a lame duck president. However, if it looks like they will have the R votes to remove Donald Trump, the time to buy will be LATER AND LOWER.
It's impossible to predict how deep the spike low will be from a Black Swan event of removing Donald Trump from office because we don't have analog's, other than this happening to Nixon, when the stock market dropped 50%.....but we also had stagflation and a bad economy at that time.
We can't rule out loose cannon, Iran that has had Donald Trump by the balls with the close Strait of Hormuz closing the Strait again just to make things worse for Donald Trump before or during the impeachment investigation. If that happened, renewing the worst global energy crisis in history, then that previous analog would be even better. Donald Trump could resume the bombing. I don't think that will happen but it's much more likely than what anybody thought the odds of a war in Iran would be a year ago.
Let's add this on its own page because it means everything to the impeachment process.
Donald Trump has 2 different brain diseases, 1 organic and the other psychiatricl and both are crystal clearly progressing by every obvious standard. There is no chance to reverse it.
I state this as an objective scientist using human biological science and indisputable psychiatric principles.
Re: Re: Donald Trump's Diagnosis NAILED!
By metmike - June 12, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
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The purpose of an impeachment and removal is based on violating A, B, C and D with decisions and actions while in office during their current term. Donald Trump's infraction list would take us thru most of the alphabet.
However, in this case there is an added incentive because Donald Trump's mental condition, without a shred of doubt makes him unqualified to be president of the United States.
Normally, removal for this reason would be accomplished by the 25th Amendment.
There is a 0.00% chance for that to ever happen because the ones who would vote for this, Donald Trump's cabinet are the same ones that Donald Trump appointed after they pledged allegiance..........TO DONALD TRUMP. His biggest defenders and cheerleaders!
For more explanation, please go here:
Re: Re: Choosing MAGA/Donald Trump or Jesus
By metmike - April 13, 2026, 1:36 p.m.
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For anybody that seriously thinks that the D's in Congress will not have enough ammo after their investigation to show that Donald Trump deserves to be impeached and it will just be another 2018, political shist show, like the one over a phone call........... I've been tracking Donald Trump and speaking out. There is 10X the amount of evidence needed!!!
Re: $250 bill with Donald Trump on it!
By metmike - May 28, 2026, 4:29 p.m.
Re: Re: $250 bill with Donald Trump on it!
By metmike - May 28, 2026, 4:38 p.m.
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Including that thread, that would be 50 separate threads, most of them detailing and documenting the nefarious and impeachable behavior of Donald Trump. Probably over 1,000 posts.
But this thread is not to convince you that Donald Trump is a diabolical guy, that's been proven 50 times over. It's to enlighten and prepare you for the POTENTIAL upcoming turmoil in the stock market and other markets.
Knowledge is power.
In the short term, I'm ignoring the facts about the National Debt crushing our future and the Social Security program having a huge funding shortfall because the trust funds used to supplement benefit payments will be depleted in 2032. That can only be fixed if Congress acts because continuing with the current tax revenues would only cover about 76% to 78% of scheduled benefits, leading to an automatic reduction in the money us old folks receive.
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https://www.crfb.org/nostatespared
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By metmike - June 1, 2026, 4:53 p.m.
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These are all speculative uncertainties that don't bode well for the stock market to have the wonderful returns that investors have come to expect........in the future.
HOWEVER, Donald Trump being impeached by the newly controlled, D majority House is almost a certainty. Impeachment and removal by the Senate is probably upwards of 50%.
Even if not impeached AND REMOVED, the D majority in the House will finally keep the president for the stock market from imposing his will with impunity.
Republicans should look at the removal of Donald Trump as the best thing that could happen to their party in the long run!!
I may have accidentally linked to the wrong page earlier on my stock market call of the lows at the end of March.
Start on this page:
Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - March 30, 2026, 1:52 a.m.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 week. Filled the gap lower. Was this an exhaustion gap, gap and crap at the end of a long move down? Will there be follow thru and a reversal up on Monday?
2. 1 month: Broken major support from late last year. Accelerating downtrend
3. 1 year: Rounded top pattern we started showing late last year has been CONFIRMED now for awhile! Chances of new highs this year are low but needed to negate this powerful topping formation.
4. 10 years. The exponential, parabolic move higher is no longer. BUT THE LONG TERM TREND IS STILL UP! Can the self fulfilling prophesy mentality overcome the still over valued prices which is connected to history/the past of a long term trend up under DIFFERENT dynamics. Under Donald Trump dynamics, we have a different much riskier paradigm. This includes the market dialing in the likelihood of him not finishing this term which is NOT bullish.
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Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - March 31, 2026, 3:32 p.m.
Big reversal up today after a long move down. Potential bottom in place..........depending on the NEWS.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month: After the downtrend accelerated in the last several days, we saw a reversal up(from extreme oversold conditions) above the previous reaction level of support and are how trading above it. The NEWS will determine if this has follow thru but it looks promising.
2. 1 year: Rounded top formation was SOLIDLY CONFIRMED. With the reversal up today, it looks likely that we could get back above the significant lows/previous support from Oct/Nov 2025.
How far up we go depends on the NEWS. If the STRAIGHT of Hormuz opens up........there will be an enormous spike much higher. If Donald Trump bombs power plants and desalination plants or US troops enter a battle, that is less likely.
The market is trying to predict Donald Trump's actions before even Donald Trump knows what he will do
To be crystal clear on that point. Donald Trump had ZERO idea that his attacks on Iran would cause this reaction. His top priority is the stock market. His mention of it and taking credit for all the highs last year over and over and over prove that.
That has not changed. If he had done nothing, at the very least the stock indices could have held up. Now, we have another self inflicted crisis that WILL end at some point.........but there is even more permanent damage to the US's economy, reputation and to the entire world that can't be UNSEEN.
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the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 1, 2026, 12:57 a.m.
Interesting place!
The bulls have a great opportunity to build on Tuesday's reversal up!
The NEWS needs to be positive about the flow of oil and war. The market has dropped a lot(is oversold) and dialed in a lot of bad news.
I would NOT call this a bull flag, however. The rounded top formation looks to be the main pattern with odds pretty unlikely that we will make new highs for awhile. Even if the war ends soon.
Nobody really knows what will happen here. So new highs, although surprising to me are not impossible.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 2, 2026, 12:12 p.m.
Good chance the lows are in as the stock indices, as indicated 5 hours ago were unable to follow the extremely bearish news of huge gains in the crude.
When a market can't go lower anymore on the most bearish news, the selling has been exhausted and there is nobody else to sell(or cover longs).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1 day: Crystal clear low in the stock market with crude peaking +$13 earlier but unable to generate additional selling. Back up to the level of just before Donald Trump gave his confused man speech(on objectives and leadership) Wednesday evening.
2. 1 year: Reversal up earlier this week as noted previously as a potential, SIGNIFICANT bottom. Trying to get above the previous major support levels from late last year. This is still a NEWS driven market but the inability of the market to react negatively to really BEARISH news, is BULLISH!
When the stock market is this deformed, there are bargains. Schwab considers SpaceX to be a telecom (I guess they don't have a category for swindle), so their comparison feature lets you see how some old companies look good.
Thanks very much, patrick!!
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Like you, I'm no fan of charlatan Musk either!
Musk is 1st Trillionaire
Started by metmike - June 13, 2026, 1:21 a.m.
Alan Greenspan, longtime chairman of the Federal Reserve, dies at 100
He was appointed Fed chair by four different presidents during his career, first by Ronald Reagan in 1987. Greenspan continued to serve as Fed chairman under presidents George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He steered the U.S. economy through the economic boom in the 1990s, the dotcom bubble, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. His final term as chair ended on Jan. 31, 2006.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/alan-greenspan-longtime-chairman-federal-111500489.html
Thanks very much, Larry!
Here's our new thread on the best Fed Chairman in history:
Alan Greenspan
Started by mikempt - June 22, 2026, 10:49 a.m.
How profoundly ironic that this great man's passing happened exactly when a similar (but different) situation has evolved with our current stock market and that's what this thread is about.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance
"Irrational exuberance" is the phrase used by the then-Federal Reserve Board chairman, Alan Greenspan, in a December 1996 speech given at the American Enterprise Institute during the dot-com bubble of the 1990s. The phrase was interpreted as a warning that the stock market might be overvalued.
Greenspan wrote in his 2008 book that the phrase occurred to him in the bathtub while he was writing a speech.[4]
The irony of the phrase and its aftermath lies in Greenspan's widely held reputation as the most artful practitioner of Fedspeak, often known as Greenspeak, in the modern televised era. The speech coincided with the rise of dedicated financial TV channels around the world that would broadcast his comments live, such as CNBC. Greenspan's idea was to obfuscate his true opinion in long complex sentences with obscure words so as to intentionally mute any strong market response.[5]
The phrase was also used by Yale professor Robert J. Shiller, who was reportedly Greenspan's source for the phrase.[6] Shiller used it as the title of his book, Irrational Exuberance, first published in 2000, where Shiller states:
Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases, and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly by envy of others' successes and partly through a gamblers' excitement
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While no 2 events are exactly the same, history will often repeat itself for the same reasons. How ironic that we are discussing the man who recognized the dot.com bubble years before it burst, EXACTLY when today's stock market is repeating his "irrational exuberance"!!!
The AI bubble is nowhere as extreme as the dot. com bubble. However the market is extremely over bought, over leveraged, unbalanced, over valued and unhealthy, very similar to when Greenspan recognized the exact same market dynamics that led to a crash that took the Nasdaq 15 years to recover from.
The president for the stock market, who's main agenda is to pump up and jaw bone the stock market higher has greatly contributed.
When that president is impeached, it's not just a question of the stock market falling hard by -XX%. The question is HOW far the double digit drop will be and how long (years) it will take to recover?
A year from now, new investors at the top of this bubble in 2026 will be looking in the rear view mirror and seeing the same things that new investors in the late 1990s saw..............after they were deeply underwater and it was too late.
Yes, they all recovered eventually but for some, it took over a decade. Instead, those that waited for the bubble to bust, THEN invested were counting their double digit profits when the ones that bought near the top were getting back to break even.
We should remember that almost all the sources for information about the current stock market in 2026 and forecasts are the ones most heavily invested in the current bubble. This would be like getting your report about chicken health in the hen house by using the fox!!!
They (and investors) suffer from extreme stock market bias in 2026.
https://fooletfs.com/insights/how-cognitive-biases-can-negatively-affect-your-investment-decisions
Bad returns aren’t always a result of a bad market. Are you the problem?
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Let me repeat.
The VAST majority of information that experts are feeding us about the current market(unrealistic future returns based on the authentic realities in 2026) is based on stock market guru's/sources who's jobs and livelihoods are reliant on being bullish the stock market.
This market is grossly over bought, over valued, over leveraged, unbalanced and a rich person's Ponzi Scheme based on a self fulfilling prophesy led by the president for the stock market's agenda and constant jaw boning.
Those facts are not even in dispute!
Nor is the very high likelihood of Donald Trump being impeached next year and that all of our information is coming from sources that are heavily invested or making a living on the stock market in 2026.
Every individual investor with money in the stock market is biased by definition.
All I can do is present the comprehensive, authentic evidence here as somebody that doesn't make or lose a penny from it but sincerely wants to enlighten readers here with the authentic truths.
Quote Origin: It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When His Salary Depends Upon His Not Understanding It
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/11/30/salary/
Katie Brockman, The Motley Fool
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-doing-something-not-182000951.html
There's one stock market indicator that sounded the alarm before both the Great Depression and the dot-com bubble burst, and it's reaching historic levels yet again. Here's what that might mean for your investments.
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio measures the S&P 500's price against its inflation-adjusted earnings over the last 10 years, providing a snapshot of the index's valuation over time. A higher metric suggests that the S&P 500 is becoming increasingly expensive and, in some cases, overvalued.
Throughout history, the CAPE ratio has averaged around 17. In the late 1920s, as the stock market crash and the Great Depression approached, it reached the mid-30s. It spiked again in 1999, reaching an all-time high of around 44 as dot-com stocks ballooned in value. As of this writing, the metric is just over 41.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-stock-market-watergate-133736317.html
From the start of 1973 through Nixon's resignation in August 1974, the S&P 500 fell about 50%.
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I want to make it clear that the underlying economic conditions in 1973 and 1974 were HORRIBLE and in 2026/27/28 there is almost no way our economy will be this bad with double digit inflation and slow growth (stagflation) in the period charted above.
However, the spike lower happened in the middle of those underlying conditions that were superimposed on the stock market before, during and after the impeachment/resignation process of President Nixon.
This time, the market is actually much more vulnerable to a spike lower because of the extreme nature of it being so overbought, over leveraged, over valued and unhealthy.
Maybe, most importantly, President Nixon's policies, like Donald Trump's were seen as being stock market favorable and the stock market rebounded nicely in the early 1970's.
During the Watergate scandal it went the other way and the politics of his removal was a huge contributing negative. During President Nixon's time in office, the broader stock market fell 21%.
One of the many things that I've learned following markets the past 34 years is that when large fund capital gets over extended to historical, one sided levels.
1. It's NEVER a permanent situation. It's only a matter of time when the bullish news is not enough to sustain new buying that eventually get's exhausted. It's already reached Ponzi Scheme levels with new money piling in to assets with more and more inflated values.
2. When they cover large chunks of their longs(margin calls or capital preservation or technical sell signals from their computer algorithms) the fall is much faster than the move up because they act in unison and the market is overwhelmed with sell side orders in the absence of buy orders and must plunge lower to find more buying to match the selling.
3. Large funds that follow short term and long term technical and momentum signals that have just liquidated a record long speculative position, don't turn around and buy that position back after just X weeks. It took many, many years to build it up to the current levels.
4. A Trump impeachment AND REMOVAL would be a profoundly historical event. Not a minor correction, then bounce back after President Vance takes his place. It will be long and drawn out over enough months with the stock market being bombarded with news that compels the over leveraged longs to bail as the news of removal gets closer.
5. There will be a crystal clear, not well predicted(by those IN the market) profound spike lower from this BLACK SWAN event. It's very likely that the full recovery will take many years. However, that massive, double digit % lower spike will be a much better entry price than the price right now............for those that are smart and wait for it. Those that buy now will still have big losses, while those that waited a year will have nice gains that come SOONER and bigger. We are NOT talking about picking the exact bottom (even though that's what I do and tjc does with skill for short term trades-so it CAN BE DONE).
6. Long term investors WILL want to put on their positions during that time frame. That time is when most but not all of the news of Donald Trump's removal has been dialed in and prices have dropped XX%. It's impossible to predict the magnitude and timing because of the wide range in outcomes. However, ALL money currently in the market will be at great risk between now and then.
SPCX has 13.17 billion shares outstanding. Today's $30 fall wiped out $395,000,000,000 in paper wealth.
Thanks, patrick!
I would not have been following Space X that much if not for your posts.
Regardless of whether the company is worth that much, I because a massive Elon Musk critic when he started selling his impossible, science fiction Mars schemes to make money.
As an atmospheric scientist trying to EDUCATE people with authentic science, stealing people's intelligence in this particular field is particularly offensive to me.
Anybody selling such extreme Mars (and moon) nonsense can't be trusted about everything else.
Re: Re: Re: Interstellar Travel is IMPOSSIBLE!
By metmike - Feb. 14, 2026, 11:38 p.m.
Let me be more specific and point to comments like this:
https://time.com/7373155/elon-musk-mars-moon-city/
Musk has long said he would build a self-sustaining colony on Mars, declaring it to be SpaceX’s guiding goal since the company was founded in 2002.
In 2016, Musk unveiled plans to send at least a million humans to Mars and establish a self-sustaining city there, estimating that the first human mission could take place in 2024.
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Comments like this that suck in gullible people and steal billions of dollars while stealing their intelligence as a master charlatan tick me off!
https://tradingeconomics.com/spcx:us
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
CurrentShiller PE Ratio:41.58 -0.13 (-0.32%)
4:00 PM EDT, Mon Jun 22
| Mean: | 17.39 | |
| Median: | 16.10 | |
| Min: | 4.78 | (Dec 1920) |
| Max: | 44.19 | (Dec 1999) |
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.
Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 — FAQ.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio
The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, also known as the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings ratio, is defined as the ratio the the S&P 500's current price divided by the 10-year moving average of inflation-adjusted earnings. The metric was invented by American economist Robert Shiller and has become a popular way to understand long-term stock market valuations. It is used as a valuation metric to forecast future returns, where a higher CAPE ratio could reflect lower returns over the next couple of decades, whereas a lower CAPE ratio could reflect higher returns over the next couple of decades, as the ratio reverts back to the mean.
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https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices
Combined with the few multitrillion dollar companies driving this, you're making a pretty good case for getting out of index funds. Interest rates are up, and there are still a lot of unsexy companies making money and paying dividends at reasonable PEs.
But who knows how big or when the crash hits?
Yep, that's about right, patrick. In this case, it's even more about NOT putting a huge lump sum of money in the stock market right here, especially if it represents the entire position. It means your price average will be NEAR THE TOP.
I don't expect people to have the skills to time market turns and be able to get in and out and back in again but this time is different than almost all the the other times in history.
At the very least, DELAY large new stock money investments until AFTER the Donald Trump impeachment is dialed in with the huge spike lower that's likely. Then, take advantage of it with a much better entry point.
The impeachment and removal of a US president is a Black Swan event!
Right now, it's almost impossible for people to ignore the endless bullish rhetoric by the industry that is feeding the current over valued market. People that are experts and know way more than the rest of us about stocks but are also married to the market by their profession or investments. That's what they do for a living.
I just ask people reading this to do something that is more and more eluding for us living in this age. Do independent, critical thinking.
Imagine what it will be like less than a year from now when the the Ds have been conducting their impeachment investigation that shows many times more credible information needed to impeach Donald Trump with the vast majority of Americans strongly supporting this and the House impeaching him with near certainty.
Then we wait to see if less than 20 Rs in the Senate vote to finally rid their party of the person wrecking their party, wrecking the country, wrecking the world.
Even if he somehow survived, he will be a lame duck. After Donald Trump's unjustified war and granting Iran their wish list to get the oil flowing again, he just gave many of those 20 Rs in the Senate the justification to vote for impeachment and removal.
It's impossible to imagine the stock market, not having double digit losses if Donald Trump is removed from office.
He is completely off his rocker now with progressive dementia making it worse and worse. Imagine what he will do during the impeachment investigation? He is all about Donald Trump and would rather destroy this country than be forced out of office. This is the recipe for that Black Swan to take turns that none of us can imagine.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119295/#120776
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Maybe it won't be the worst case scenario but regardless, using the markets last 3, 10 or even 15 years for guidance to predict the next year is really wrong.
In 2019, the House impeached President Trump and the stock market completely ignored it. Going up to record highs during and after that because that impeachment was a complete (entirely political) joke over a phone call to President Zelensky trying to dig up evidence on Joe Biden's corruption with his son in Ukraine.
This time, it will be no joke.
50 different threads, many loaded with compelling evidence/reasons to impeach and remove Donald Trump.
For anybody that thinks this is political for me or because of my feelings for Donald Trump or that I can't predict the fate of president's years ahead of time:
1. I voted for Donald Trump in 2024.
2. I covered Joe Biden the exact same way
WWBW Contest
70 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - June 17, 2024, 1:40 a.m.
When Will Biden Withdraw? It's not a matter of if but WHEN in my opinion.
Think about it for awhile and pick a date.
Or don't think about it and pick a date.
Or tell us why you think that Biden will stay in the race.
I'll have my reasoning in several pages coming up.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/105005/
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Trouble ahead for Biden
20 responses
Started by metmike - Jan. 13, 2023, 7:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92170/
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This is just another of several reasons why Biden will NOT run in 2024.
President Biden says he will run again in 2024, NBC reports
24 responses |
Started by metmike - April 11, 2023, 4:35 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94482/
Biden cover ups
34 responses |
Started by metmike - April 23, 2023, 1:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94709/
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Biden will NOT be running!
23 responses |
Started by metmike - June 10, 2023, 10:11 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96109/
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Biden corruption/coverup 10+ times worse than Watergate
Started by metmike - June 9, 2023, 8 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96097/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96097/#96356
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96097/#96362
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Biden's speech 6-2-23
6 responses |
Started by metmike - June 2, 2023, 8:36 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95855/
‘Just Brutal for President Biden!’
12 responses |
Started by metmike - May 7, 2023, 2:53 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94997/
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Press Conference on Biden Investigation 5-10-23
53 responses
Started by metmike - May 9, 2023, 12:27 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95063/
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Bad news for the Biden's and their big corruption cover up
14 responses |
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83715/#83716
Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 9:18 p.m.
More smoking gun evidence on Bidens
78 responses | 1046 likes
Started by metmike - Oct. 14, 2020, 7:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/60077/
Today's NASDAQ crash - while other indexes were close to flat - emphasized how much meme stocks and the AI bubble are what's driving the insanity.
Anyhow, thanks Mike, for getting me back into the game. I'd left way too much on the sidelines, and started back with adding to T, (stable revenue & a high dividend) & a TBill (better than cash for now. Look for bargains next year).
Glad you enjoyed it, patrick!
While you are apparently using it for short term interest and however a reader wants to use it is ok with me, the main objective is to alert people that Donald Trump's actions and current condition, along with the upcoming election results giving the D's in the House the power to conduct an impeachment investigation,which will reveal an order of magnitude greater than needed to justify the threshold for impeachment.
That part is no brainer. What the Senate does is the main wild card and odds are increasing the the R's will also NEED to impeach and remove Donald Trump to stop the damage and start the healing of their party and they can do it quickly with their vote and then move on.
There is MUCH more to it than what has transpired to this point which are dozens of egregious, impeachable offenses. Donald Trump's has 2 separate brain diseases. Both are progressive and both are causing his decision making and judgment/decisions to be based on the thinking of an increasingly delusional psychopath.
I am totally speaking as a non political scientist about a very dangerous psychiatric condition that will likely result in a Black Swan event, the removal of the sitting president of the United States. With the removal of the King of the stock market and its biggest cheerleader and advocate in history, along with the over bought, over valued, over leveraged bubble of sorts that has turned into a self fulfilling prophesy and Ponzi Scheme for rich people and large funds(that mislead people about current risks because they want your money to do what they do for a living-take your money and put it into the stock market) .
Those are all indisputable realities that CANNOT continue on the current path. Ordinarily, it would be impossible to predict when the top in such a market will happen, especially the stock market which features so much long term investment money. However, was are at a profoundly unique time in history that DOES make it very predictable because of the political situation unfolding with high confidence as described above and previously.
In June 2026, the exact months can't be predicted, however, starting from this point forward, there will be a growing black cloud hanging over the market as the November 2026 election approaches and the stock market begins to dial in the Black Swan event.
Donald Trump's actions, that have already guaranteed this scenario, can play a role to make it worse or better. To cause the end with more or less certainty. If not for the war in Iran THEN Donald Trump granting Iran their wish list in order to get the oil flowing again in the Strait of Hormuz, I would not have expected enough Rs in the Senate to reach the 2/3rds majority to impeach and remove Donald Trump. However, he DID do that and some of the Rs that we would count on for saving his butt with votes against impeachment, are now in question.
There will be dozens of demonstrations by Donald Trump of unhinged, lunatic behavior between now and then that can't be predicted.
This thread is just to make people aware of it well ahead of time, not to sway them with the mindset of a short term speculator.
Re: Re: Donald Trump's Diagnosis NAILED!
By metmike - June 12, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
Once SPCX gets added, we can call them the Hateful Eight.
No doubt you'll love this, patrick!
Index funds have wrecked the market and caused a bubble
Started by metmike - June 25, 2026, 9:15 p.m.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/am-responsible-trump-claims-made-104500184.html
I can't imagine why Yahoo is dying.
Other than their update that killed my homepage & I had to change it.
Thanks, patrick! Crazy!
From your link:
This investment may be a fit if you:
It may not be a fit if you:
AI Overview
You may sell tomorrow, IF IF you withstood Mon and Tu gains.
Perhaps the market is "due" a summer doldrum month. July may NOT be a time frame for longs. Just saying.