Overnight the NASDAQ fell to near the June 6th low. Will this hold?
Thanks, cutworm!
Nope! Maybe
https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
1. 1 year: Topping formation. Downside break out or bull flag/Descending wedge/triangle?
2. 1 month: lower highs, lower lows!
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9:30: Can can we hold the bottom of the downtrend channel?
Potential downside break out From a descending wedge/triangle.
Since the highs, the slope of the down trend has been steepening, with lower and lower highs. Sellers are stepping in at lower and lower prices. Buyers are also waiting for lower prices and less Interested In new long positions.
https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
Most of the story is that Tesla released earnings, 18 cents non-GAAP. Down $54, 14.4%.
Wow, Thomas! Thanks for tipping us off!
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 10:25 p.m.
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The NASDAQ and other stock indices all look like toast here!
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!!
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 7:45 p.m.
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 7:38 p.m. +++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 7:43 p.m. AI Overview
Yes, rising bond rates—or yields—typically cause stock prices to fall, primarily because they change the relative attractiveness of the two investments. When bond yields rise, investors can earn higher, guaranteed returns with minimal risk. This leads to a natural shift of capital out of the stock market and into fixed-income assets. Additionally, because a stock's value is heavily tied to the present value of its future earnings, higher interest rates reduce the value of those future payouts. Companies also face higher borrowing and debt-servicing costs, which can squeeze corporate profits and further pressure stock prices downward
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 7:38 p.m. +++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - July 23, 2026, 7:43 p.m.
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5 am: There's the chance that this is a bull flag of sorts and these are the lows and we're having fake downside break outs just below support. This actually happens pretty often in markets. For that scenario to unfold, we need the NEWS on the war and economy to flip to more bullish.
And that's the thing here. The market being bombarded with BAD NEWS is why it's failing here. The entire reason A big reason is Donald Trump wrecking the economy with his unprovoked, unjustified war and absurd, ruinous tariffs. Donald Trump is completely unpredictable. Even Donald Trump has no clue what Donald Trump will do next week.
For instance, earlier this month he had no idea that he was going to suddenly impose new tariffs on Canada, for instance. After the wildfire smoke invaded from Canada, his diseased brain viewed this as Canada hurting the United States and him being a victim and his favorite way to punish country's is to impose tariffs on them that he will conjure up based on delusional, Trump Twilight Zone rationality.
He's also known as the TACO man. (Trump Always Chickens Out) because he loves being the bully with his reckless abuse of power but even more so, he loves making lunatic threats that he never follows thru with because it stimulates that diseased brain.
That being the case, we don't know whether, next week he will be TACO Trump and make up a new story.....telling us the threat of crazy tariffs this week just caused all those countries to give the United States to get the best deals in our history and the markets breathe a sigh of relief and recover. Or will he DOUBLE DOWN because his war in Iran continues to go poorly.
And make no mistake, his NEW tariffs are very likely related to his profound frustration with complete loss of control in the Iran War with no clue on what to do to get it back.
With tariffs, he's the man. He can impose them with impunity, even illegal tariffs that take months for the courts to rule against him. The Rs in Congress are supporting and enabling him so he can reek tariff havoc on the country and world with nobody able to stop his carnage.
So it may all hinge on the NEWS in the Middle East. If we get some surprise positive NEWS, Donald Trump may suddenly decide to cancel his new tariffs.
The other KEY item. Donald Trump is the president of MAGA and the president of the stock market/rich people. He will do ANYTHING and EVERYTHING to keep the stock market going higher. That being the case, he is likely to be driven by decisions that make the stock market go up, no matter what that means. Even if that means having another peace deal like the previous one that gave Iran their wish list.......only add to the Iran wish list in order to get the stock market to go back up and give us all some loony explanation to justify it. No kidding. This is exactly how Donald Trump thinks.
At the moment, in the big NASDAQ companies, stock prices are getting hit by people realizing 3 things about AI :
AI spending is humongous
https://www.reddit.com/r/ArtificialInteligence/comments/1tiuetz/i_built_a_tracker_of_ai_company_spend_vs_revenue/#lightbox
AI revenues are way behind, even at GOOG
https://arstechnica.com/google/2026/07/google-just-had-its-first-negative-cash-flow-quarter-ever-due-to-massive-ai-spending/
Everybody hates AI & doesn't want to pay for it.
Thanks for adding that key element, patrick!
Solid points!
The AI bubble may be popping!
Donald Trump trying to save the stock market???
By metmike - July 26, 2026, 10:54 a.m.
Even crude dropping $6 today (bullish stocks) can't save the NASDAQ!
When a market can't go up any more on bullish news(in fact, goes down) it's a market that has run out of the fresh buyers that bull markets need to sustain the move.
cutworm,
You started this thread because you were the first to recognize the potential for this. Great job!
https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
A lot of this seems to be AI related with NVDA -5%! But more mainstream tech like AAPL and MSFT are up nicely today.
I don’t mind this steep drop of NASDAQ as it will eventually mean a good buying opportunity for the longer term. I may be considering that in mid to late Oct or so. I’m in it for the very long term as I haven’t tried to trade short term in decades.
I've been short and still looking for a black swan event. This is where on the charts this can happen, but not a guarantee.
just my 5 cents
MU down from 6-25 at 1255 now 888 ish -29% in a month
at this time a break above the 20-day moving average would be concerning, to me.
just my 5 cents
Excellent comments by everyone, especially this one:
I've been short and still looking for a black swan event.
Re: Re: Re: VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!!
By metmike - June 22, 2026, 1:33 p.m.
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: VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!! By metmike - June 22, 2026, 3:05 p.m. +++++++++++++
Re: : VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!! By metmike - June 22, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
4. A Trump impeachment AND REMOVAL would be a profoundly historical event. Not a minor correction, then bounce back after President Vance takes his place. It will be long and drawn out over enough months with the stock market being bombarded with news that compels the over leveraged longs to bail as the news of removal gets closer.
5. There will be a crystal clear, not well predicted(by those IN the market) profound spike lower from this BLACK SWAN event. It's very likely that the full recovery will take many years. However, that massive, double digit % lower spike will be a much better entry price than the price right now............for those that are smart and wait for it. Those that buy now will still have big losses, while those that waited a year will have nice gains that come SOONER and bigger. We are NOT talking about picking the exact bottom (even though that's what I do and tjc does with skill for short term trades-so it CAN BE DONE).
6. Long term investors WILL want to put on their positions during that time frame. That time is when most but not all of the news of Donald Trump's removal has been dialed in and prices have dropped XX%. It's impossible to predict the magnitude and timing because of the wide range in outcomes. However, ALL money currently in the market will be at great risk between now and then.
NASDAQ continues its collapse lower as extremely over leveraged longs in an over valued bubble continue to liquidate.
Crude back up $5 isn't helping either!
https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
Lows are in:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: NASDAQ
By metmike - July 30, 2026, 11:23 a.m.
Actually, the biggest news today was the FED's decision to not change interest rates at a time when inflation is a concern by the stock market.
The higher the yields go on Bonds the more pressure it will put on the stock market.
Extremely high interest rates in the 1970's hurt the stock market which LOST money much of that decade.
Lost half of its value during the Nixon impeachment investigation.
For those that assume stocks will always keep making new highs, its just a matter of how long you need to wait, I have news for you.
The last 15 years have created historically way, WAY over valued stock values that eventually will return closer to their true value.
Investors that got in near the top earlier this Summer could be underwater by XX% during the Trump impeachment investigation if it looks like the president of the stock market will be impeached AND REMOVED.
Even if he survives and continues to do everything in his power to keep the stock market high for the rich people, his actual policies are damaging the economy and the stock market can't ignore that forever.
By metmike - July 29, 2026, 5 p.m.
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By metmike - July 29, 2026, 5:21 p.m.
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https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html
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There are many differences in 2026 to the 1970's so this is only an example of how 3 elements of extreme risk here:
1. Stocks extremely over valued
2. Presidential impeachment investigation inevitable
3. Higher interest rates
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I warned readers about this over a month ago. Even if this is some sort of a temporary bottom, until the impeachment process plays out next year, buying stocks is likely going to put you under water with new investments.
At least wait for that to play out and buy at the discounts.
VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!! 42 responses |
Started by metmike - June 18, 2026, 2:56 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120945/
Long term (decades) with a portion of one’s assets starting at a young adult age is the best way to invest in stocks imho since in the long run, stocks have always risen and their longterm (multidecadal) avg has been a much higher rise than less volatile investments. Of course as one gets older, a gradual drop of % in stocks is best due to a shorter time horizon. One should have enough assets in bonds/cash equivalent to last several years, if possible, so as to avoid having to sell stocks at low prices.
Owning real estate, including one’s home, is another great long term investment based on the past/hedge against inflation/way to diversify. In addition, owning a modest portion of assets in a commodity basket to hedge against inflation and to diversify is not bad.
Luck & Like are the keys.
30 years ago, my wife wanted to make a small investment in a once dominant computer company.
Her money, so I coudn't say no.
Instead, I came up with the question : If you believe in them, double. If not, nothing.
She went double.
Yes, it was AAPL.
Now we always have a jar of Planter's Deluxe nuts on the table.
Hey Patrick,
Has she considered selling a portion of it with it near all time highs?
I have a good bit of AAPL in an inherited IRA that requires an RMD. Since most of that IRA is in AAPL, I sold 6% of it at 340 yesterday.
patrick,
Sounds like you and your wife make great partners!
AAPL has been holding up pretty well this year. One of the best companies for sure.
We try to chip away without making the Medicare B premiums go through the roof.
A really nice guy celebrated his 74th birthday yesterday. From the 27-29th he re-invested in tech stocks, including msft (bought msfl). HE is much happier starting his 75th year!
Are the lows in?
https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
1. 1 month: Strong downtrend with lower highs. SPIKE UP TODAY!
2. 1 year: Spike low in April. Spike high in June. Descending triangle with downside break out. Below major short term support.
3. 10 years: Solid long term uptrend still intact with increasing slope up. Can't be sustained!(my opinion)
Big tech movers today: holy cow!
MSFT +15%
INTC +13%
DELL +10%
META -9%
NASDAQ
today is a reversal day, and there is 5 waves to this pattern, and this may be the start of an up trend
But beware and watch
A lot of markets after a breakout recover to the breakout point (25050 ish)
Pasing that the next goal is the 20 day, many trends will correct to that then resume the trend.
next I see a down trend line at 29520ish and falling about 32 points/ day
just my observations
NASDAQ opened last Friday at 25,139
Now at 25,080
Wild ride to nowhere
The president isn't helping ensure his prediction about the stock market comes true.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/08/01/trump-says-the-market-is-going-to-go-through-the-r/
The Stock Market Sounds an Alarm as Investors Get Bad News About President Trump's Economy. History Says This Will Happen Next.
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I trade weather markets for a living NOT the stock market but we have ZERO money in the stock market and if you gave me matching money to invest in the stock market right now, I would NEVER do it.
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https://tradingeconomics.com/us100:ind
1. 1 year. Spike low and well above the highs earlier this year/last year. Lower and lower highs this Summer are just another warning sign. However, the formation is still a potential bull flag despite my extreme bearish bias.
2. 10 years: Slope of uptrend going parabolic/exponential that NEVER continues forever. It's planet earth, folks. The bubble WILL burst. The law of a self fulfilling prophesy can take OVER valuations higher than one would think BUT NOT FOREVER before they crash down to reality. The higher we go above valuations, the farther we drop when the party is over. The approach of Donald Trump's impeachment and removal might be the trigger to change the psyche of the self fulfilling prophesy.
This is Index is 5 times higher since 2019, an increase of 400% in just 7 years.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500.
Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 — FAQ.
