This is a very important market!
By metmike - June 1, 2026, 2:43 p.m.
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Trump is facing a new inflation warning from the bond market
The world is getting more uptight about lending money to President Donald Trump’s government
When Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, broke down the math tied to rising 30-year Treasury yields, he estimated that 60% of the increase had come from the expectation that America will continue its outsized borrowing and the other 40% was tied to the inflation driven by the Iran war and Trump’s tariffs.
Glenn Hubbard, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers during the George W. Bush administration, worries that the U.S. may no longer have the same borrowing capacity as before to effectively combat an economic crisis, such as the 2008 crash or the coronavirus pandemic.
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In other words, 100% of it tied to Donald Trump's ruinous policies. Donald Trump wants lower interest rates but everything he does causes HIGHER interest rates.
Gap higher after Donald Trump's completely unprovoked, unjustified and illegal attack against Iran which has caused the worst global energy crisis in history that has no end in sight because his diseased brain doesn't have the negotiating ability or objective, critical thinking to figure it out and he's appointed nothing but Trump adulators that keep their jobs by doing what he says. When they come up with good ideas that contradict Donald Trump.........they get replaced.
Regardless, the war in Iran can’t go on forever and when it ends, things are likely to normalize and energy prices will drop back down, which also pressures inflation and interest rates.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
1. 10 year bond-1 year. Gap higher at the start of the Iran War.
2. 10 year graph: COVID lows in 2020. The Fed OVER stimulated the economy by printing trillions because of COVID and this caused major inflation and MUCH higher interest rates. They peaked in 2024 as interest rates continued to drop. However, inflation has picked up again because of Donald Trump's illegal tariffs and unjustified war. The most recent chart formation is a symmetrical triangle that appears to be on the verge of an upside breakout or it could just be testing the downtrend line. The adverse impacts to our economy, if they cause a recession would help to keep the interest rates from getting too high. However, the new Fed chairman appointed by Donald Trump is a wild card. If he is another Donald Trump minion that follows Trumps wishes, he could do some really dumb things like print more money or do interest rates cuts that INCREASE inflation and makes things worse. We need to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope the Fed continues to maintain independence.
https://www.pgpf.org/article/with-39-trillion-in-debt-is-the-u-s-headed-for-more-credit-downgrades/
If market observers, including the ratings agencies, continue to lose faith in the safety of Treasury securities, the United States will have to offer higher rates of return to attract investors, which would put upward pressure on interest rates.
This upward pressure on yields would occur in an already high-interest environment, which has substantially increased the cost of servicing the nation’s existing debt load. Between 2017 and 2021, annual net interest costs averaged $332 billion. Last year, net interest payments cost the government $970 billion and, over the next decade, are projected to average $1.6 trillion per year. Unfortunately, the CBO projects that interest rates will remain well above those levels in the future, significantly contributing to growing deficits and debt. Additional upward pressure on interest rates would further exacerbate the national debt — and add to concerns from market observers about our fiscal health.
Three successive downgrades of the U.S. credit rating should alarm our elected leaders. For decades, the United States has benefited significantly from the dollar serving as the world’s primary reserve currency. Unless we change course and improve our fiscal condition, we may put that position at risk.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/30-year-bond-yield
30 year Bond Yield. 10 years: COVID low in 2020. The Fed OVER stimulated the economy by printing trillions because of COVID and this caused major inflation and MUCH higher interest rates. They peaked in 2024 as interest rates continued to drop. However, inflation has picked up again because of Donald Trump's illegal tariffs and unjustified war. The most recent chart formation is an ASCENDING triangle/wedge, which is a bullish formation that appears to be on the verge of an upside breakout or it could just be testing the resistance line. The adverse impacts to our economy, if they cause a recession would help to keep the interest rates from getting too high. However, the new Fed chairman appointed by Donald Trump is a wild card. If he is another Donald Trump minion that follows Trumps wishes, he could do some really dumb things like print more money or do interest rates cuts that INCREASE inflation and make things worse. We need to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope the Fed continues to maintain independence.
Higher interest rates offered by Bonds will attract stock market money when the stock market crashes and investors flee to safer investments. It's no longer an IF for the stock market to crash but just a WHEN Because the president for the stock market will lose control of HIS House to Ds in November and then we start the impeachment investigations.
When investors increase bond purchases, the interest rate GOES DOWN!
Looking to sell sept bonds near 113-16, say Wednesday or Wednesday night.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
The bulls are taking strong control. They just need to get above the early 2024 high.
Higher interest rates and safety of bonds will likely compete with and kill the way overvalued and historically high risk stock market!!!
1. 10 years: Covid Low! Steep uptrend late 2020, 2021, 2022. Less steep uptrend 2025/26. Potential breaking out of the upside of a symmetrical wedge/triangle(depending on the lines with lower highs and higher lows). ORRR, Potential ascending triangle just using the 2025 high.
2. 1 year; Steep uptrend. Potential upside breakout to new high.
3. 1 month: Steep uptrend June/July. Bear flag(continuation pattern) then resumption of steep uptrend to new highs.
VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!!
35 responses |
Started by metmike - June 18, 2026, 2:56 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120945/
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AI Overview
Yes, rising bond rates—or yields—typically cause stock prices to fall, primarily because they change the relative attractiveness of the two investments. When bond yields rise, investors can earn higher, guaranteed returns with minimal risk. This leads to a natural shift of capital out of the stock market and into fixed-income assets. Additionally, because a stock's value is heavily tied to the present value of its future earnings, higher interest rates reduce the value of those future payouts. Companies also face higher borrowing and debt-servicing costs, which can squeeze corporate profits and further pressure stock prices downward
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
1 year chart below. Powerful uptrend that has accelerated up recently. Potential major upside break out because of expectations of inflation.
Basically, the outcome of the war in Iran and price of crude oil is in the drivers seat, although Donald Trumps ruinous tariffs are also increasing inflation and he is determined to keep wrecking the economy with those(making up lies about them having the diametrically opposed polar opposite impacts that they are causing in the real world) .
Unfortunately, much of this is in the hands of Donald Trump who is making all the wrong decisions as he focuses on making Donald Trump an historical legend with abuse of his powers that are being imposed with impunity (almost no resistance from the R majority in Congress).
There is a near 0% chance that Donald Trump will suddenly change and do the opposite of all his ruinous policies.
So it's up to the American people to make the change.
Near 100% certainty that the new D majority in the house will conduct a profoundly convincing impeachment investigation and the majority in the House will vote for impeachment.
The Senate requires a 2/3rd majority and around 15 Rs to vote for impeachment to remove Donald Trump.
I think they WILL do it with low confidence for these 2 reasons
1. Their party will do much, MUCH better in 2028 with a President Vance in office in 2028.
2. They are all afraid of Donald Trump's power to control voters and their party AND THEM. Impeaching him will remove his power over them forever!
3. It will begin the healing of the R party (and out country).
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Again, bonds are extremely safe investments compared to stocks. If you hold them to maturity, your can't lose your equity and you are guaranteed X% interest.
When the interest/yields paid by very safe bonds goes to X+1%, they become more competitive with stocks, even though in the long run, the stock market has outperformed most other investments.
But bonds do better than stocks when the interest rate gets high enough!!!! And after the stock market has topped and is going down..........CASH DOES BETTER than the stock market!!!!
Are we topping or about to break out to the upside? Fascinating place technically!
LOSING jobs last month reduces the chance for the Fed to increase interest rates because of the WEAKER economy and need for lower interest rates to stimulate that weak economy(vs higher rates to fight the current inflation).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Stagflation:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
Stagflation presents a policy dilemma, as measures to curb inflation—such as tightening monetary policy—can exacerbate unemployment, while policies aimed at reducing unemployment may fuel inflation. In economic theory, there are two main explanations for stagflation: supply shocks, such as a sharp increase in oil prices, and misguided government policies that hinder industrial output while expanding the money supply too rapidly. The stagflation of the 1970s led to a reevaluation of Keynesian economic policies and contributed to the rise of alternative economic theories, including monetarism and supply-side economics.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-19-2026
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This tells us that they're desperate and trying anything they can to fight Donald Trump's ruinous, inflation causing policies that put upward pressure on interest rates.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
1. 1 year. Strong uptrend because of Donald Trump's inflationary policies (tariffs/war). Recent weeks pattern looks like a bull flag which is an upward continuation pattern. However, it could be a top(like all bull flags could be tops).
2. 1 month. Upward bias, huge spike down today from the news above.
This bears repeating because there are people coming here that still believe Donald Trumps lies about tariffs.
Tariffs CAUSE inflation just like 2+2=4. US companies pay the tariffs and pass on the higher cost to consumers In the form of higher prices…..Economics 101!
Poor people are hurt the most.
bond interest rates are back up today after the governmentsi attempt to push them down yesterday.
I didn't really understand where the money is supposed to come from for bond buybacks except from issuing more bonds. Guess it means buying back long term & issuing more short term, because reasons. The articles I read didn't seem to care, just repeated the announcement.
Bessent did some interviews today that were maybe the worst ever stammered out by a Treasury Secretary. (Andrew Mellon always spoke with confidence and clarity, despite a complete misunderstanding of what was happening)
Transcripts, if you dare:
CNBC : https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/cnbc-exclusive-transcript-us-treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-speaks-with-cnbcs-sara-eisen-on-squawk-on-the-street-today.html
Outside the White House:
https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-briefing-scott-bessent-the-white-house-august-20-2026/
Among many things he said were to not worry about the lack of new jobs because Real Americans were replacing foreigners, and that $40,000,000,000,000 in debt was something we can grow out of.
And somebody finally did the story properly!
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/08/20/can-the-treasury-fix-the-national-debt-with-shortterm-bonds
(No excerpt, it's just a clear, medium length explanation of the tradeoffs)
Agree that was an excellent article, Patrick, Thanks!
Trump threatened military intervention in the bond market.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-suggests-military-bond-markets-222513278.html
"No," the president replied. "Not at all. No, he's a very capable man. He wanted to do it. He's very good at it. He is a good touch. Very good natural touch for the bonds and interest. And he did that? Yeah."
The reporter followed up, noting that "yields have come back up since then."
She then asked: "Have you talked to him about another type of intervention? Is that something he will be doing?"
"We have many types of intervention. That's one," Trump said, adding: "The ultimate intervention is our military. And if we have to use that, we will."
Good one, patrick!
Almost nothing is a surprise coming from Donald Trump.
The biggest surprise would be if he suddenly started telling the truth.
Seriously!
By a Grand Canyon wide margin, telling lies is the thing that Donald Trump does the most!
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
1. 1 week: Horizontal line was the news from the Treasury that they will be buying bonds to try to manipulate the market to push interest rates lower. That worked.......for 1 day. Interest rate are HIGHER than after that announcement. A bullish interest rate reaction to bearish news. The market is worried about inflation, especially because of ruinous tariffs and the war with Iran.
2. 1 month: Bullish ascending wedge with higher lows and similar highs.
3. 1 year: Steady uptrend with several bull flags which are are continuation formations This looks like another bull flag but it could be a top.......as every bull flag has that potential.
4. 10 years: MAJOR COVID low followed by strong uptrends, recently accelerating higher. This could be an ascending wedge. This could be a top until we break out above the lte 2023 high which will make it a bull flag/ascending triangle. Or even a symmetrical wedge/triangle(higher lows +lower highs) and we're already breaking out to the upside of that formation.
