We are very close to the aforementioned targets
This double bottom (see below) won't hold imho and we can go lower still before a real rebound.
Trade safe my friends ... !
Dow futures weekly ....
Thanks very much, kris!
It's mostly about the news related to the war.
metmike:
"It's mostly about the news related to the war"
I don't care about or listen to news related to war or anything else, I read and analyze charts, has served me well... !
Anyone is better served by the latter since markets tend to anticipate; i.e.: don't have to "react", that goes for economics/politics/wars/strikes/elections/fed decisions etcetera etcetera etcetera
Thanks very much, kris.
I couldn't disagree more. I made a living trading the NEWS about the weather in grains and natural gas for 3 decades. I made ALL my money by knowing the weather news before the market and putting on the right position then taking profits after the market reacted with lines on the chart (buy the rumor-sell the fact).
A non weather, position trader can follow trends and use lines of support and resistance to increase their chances of being successful as well as chart formations/signatures.
Markets do anticipate for sure. The ones with the better news sources make most of the money. Most of the reactions on the charts are from people with the best news pushing the market before the rest of the people know the news and those people watching it happen think the charts predicted it. They use the charts which are telling them what the big and smart money with the BEST NEWS are doing to the price.
The charts can in fact can be predictive because they tell us what the smart money has ALREADY DONE which is peering in the the mind of Wyckoff's "Composite Man" When the smart money is behaving a certain way, understanding why can help us to predict what might come next.
In a situation like the war in Iran, of course the oil markets can't predict what Donald Trump's next chaotic move might be. This is an example of the most extreme market trading on news. We've experienced a Black Swan event in the crude oil market that would never have expected Donald Trump to do this a month ago.
It's greatly impacting the stock market too as the downside has accelerated from the increasingly bleak economic outlook caused by the Netanyahu/Trump war.
++++++++++++
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term arose from a Latin expression which was based on the presumption that black swans did not exist. The expression was used in the original manner until around 1697 when Dutch mariners saw black swans living in Australia. After this, the term was reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.
++++++++++++++++++
https://medium.com/@Blocksavant/composite-man-ca18c9d2d5a5
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Previous thread:
Sold 1 Emini S&P 6902
55 responses |
Started by joj - Feb. 26, 2026, 11:02 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118205/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month: Downside breakout of the descending wedge/triangle caused by the war. If the war ends suddenly this week or the Gulf of Hormuz opens up, for instance we can turn this into a fake break out as the market reacts positively to that GOOD news.
2. 1 year: Rounding top formation described since late 2025 from the market losing steam as the news of the flailing economy and over valuations were able to attract less and less and less fresh buying so the upslope became less and less steep with new highs made by smaller and smaller margins. After rounding the top and heading down, this was greatly accelerated by the greatly magnified damage to the economy because of the market speculating and dialing in the news about the war.
We are just below last Novembers extremely significant lows/support, with bearish economic news, especially on the unprovoked war crushing prices this month, the market is very oversold and it might not take much good news(that caused the crude market to plunge lower) for us to have a very strong kneejerk reaction up above this support.
A continuation of the Gulf of Hormuz being closed with oil prices staying elevated close to $100 will keep pressure on the stock indices. If it gets even worse/lasts longer and predictions of an impending recession increase, that news will very likely push the stock indices even lower.
https://www.ebc.com/forex/rounding-top-pattern-explained-how-to-spot-market-reversals
We've been showing this chart formation above for 4+ months now and clearly the market has followed incredibly close. It was based on recognizing a market of LOSING STEAM from being bombarded constantly with BEARISH economic news.
+++++++++++++++++
Since Donald Trump is the rich and powerful people's president and he worships the stock market to please them, one would expect this to be a top priority. However, he got caught flat footed with the Law of Unintended Consequences biting him and the rest of us in the butt and Iran has him by the balls!
The law of unintended consequences!
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/540/handouts/french/unintconseq.html
The first and most complete analysis of the concept of unintended consequences was done in 1936 by the American sociologist Robert K. Merton. In an influential article titled "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," Merton identified five sources of unanticipated consequences. The first two, and the most pervasive, were ignorance and error.
Merton labeled the third source the "imperious immediacy of interest." By that he was referring to instances in which an individual wants the intended consequence of an action so much that he purposefully chooses to ignore any unintended effects.
++++++++++++++
https://garyacosta.com/current-affairs/the-law-of-unintended-consequences/
Unexpected drawbacks – This type of unintended consequence occurs when the goal is to improve “A,” we later learn that we made “B” worse in the process. These are also referred to as “externalities.” The mass adoption of the automobile in the early part of the 20th century provided many benefits but created unexpected drawbacks such as air pollution and car accidents.
Perverse results – ‘Perverse Results’ happen when our goal is to improve “A” but we actually make “A” worse. These are often the most frustrating category of unintended consequences.
Again, not something you see often even over a period of years: the Dow futures skyrocketed from 45,319 at 7:05AM to 46,705 by 7:09AM, a jump of an amazing 1,400 points/3% within <5 minutes (though it fell back a few hundred afterward) when DT announced a 5 day delay in attacking the Iranian energy grids!
Thanks, Larry! That was pretty insane!!
That got us back above the HUGE broken support level but just barely and the new downtrend is still valid. A delay of 5 days, which is typical TACO Trump behavior means this is still unresolved. It's especially bad that they killed the people who had just agreed to the reduction in enriched uranium just before Netanyahu acted to sabotage the deal, by attacking, so now making deals is much tougher..........but Donald Trump will just make up stuff anyways!
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
I just watched Donald Trump answering questions. He's just making things up to jawbone the markets. Contradicting previous statements. Saying things that don't even make sense to people following this with critical thinking.
One thing that's clear is that Donald Trump is making the oil and stock markets his main priority now so he wants this to end ASAP.
We're deeply into the land of unintended consequences as Donald Trump flounders with damage control to deal with his SELF INFLICTED mess.
Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - March 23, 2026, 12:28 p.m.
Can't have a single thread about the markets and the markets only, every thread is about bashing the president, just rename the forum already, something like Politico II or The View II sounds about right !
I wonder why nobody joins or stays and posts here for any length of time ? Gee whiz, what could it be ...
In any event: just continue to knock yourselves out, I've had enough of the B.S.
Thanks very much, kris!
I can’t control the news that emanates from Donald Trump who is in the drivers seat. I really wish that I could put the bullish spin on it that you need to be happy and wish that politics was not the most important thing dominating price in crude and the stock market.
I‘m not sorry to have to disagree with you on news being the key price driver here Now and often at other times in other markets. The objective here is to communicate the authentic truth is what I present as an independent scientist and trader.
We were all blessed with God given free will. So it’s always our own choice whether to accept the authentic facts, disagree with them or runaway from/deny them.
You should note that there is minimal to no mention of Donald Trump in the NG, grains, cattle, weather, climate and the other markets that he has less to no impact on.
Thanks for your contributions.
Feel free to return anytime that you feel like it.
MarketForum is an ANTI echo chamber.
Hate(and love)
Started by metmike - Oct. 17, 2023, 4:15 p.m.
The stock market continues to have added pressure on it from the previous negative impacts of Donald Trump's failed economic policies with added pressure from his war in Iran. Donald Trump's impulsive/deceptive mouth and chaotic actions(NEWS) have been responsible for numerous spikes up and down for the oil, metals and stock markets since the war started which has been greatly impacting the price more than any 1 factor this month.
Anybody being honest about what's driving the stock market is analyzing Donald Trumps words and actions and their extremely powerful impacts on the markets to gain good insight for why they are trading this way and where they might go next.
Sadly, what Donald Trump says and does next is the most powerful force and not even Donald Trump knows what that will be.
Not so much in natural gas and grains or even metals, which don't include this analysis. But Donald Trump is everything in the crude oil and stock market that he cherishes and has been repeatedly trying to jawbone in the direction he wants them to move this month.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month: Descending wedge/triangle with a Fake downside break out??? These lines don't mean much in a market hanging on the latest news about the Iran war. One could draw a coiling pattern with a tighter range with lower highs and slightly higher lows this week but the market is showing tremendous uncertainty and not moving much in either direction this week. This is a greatly reduced range with the bulls and bears just treading water on either side of the same line and DRIFTING without direction. Potential spike low that will hold if somehow the war suddenly ends soon.
6am: Jobless claims on Thursday could have a big impact!
7:45am: Bears continue to step in and sell at lower and lower and lower prices with the exception of the 1 spike up early in the week on Trump's jawboning of the market(which went NOWHERE). This formation is flashing a downside break out from 2 different, bearish descending triangles.
Trumps unpredictable mouth could jawbone another bullish NEWS surprise and spike up at any time(but the bears are in control)
1:30pm close: Lower and lower and lower highs as traders step to sell in earlier and earlier. Buyers wait for prices to fall farther to buy.
The potential capitulation of this move down with the spike/reversal up earlier this week(from Trump's jawboning lies/news-faking the market out again) has been negated because of NO follow thru as the market trades the REALITY.
Donald Trump follows the stock market closely. It defines who he is as the rich American's president. He is looking for ways to save it from this collapse lower.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
The NASDAQ is now down over 10% from the October highs which would officially make it a correction. Even as Donald Trump today bragged about how he's caused the stock market to make so many new highs.
Re: Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - March 26, 2026, 4:29 p.m.
++++++++++++
Stock Market Today: Indexes End Sharply Lower, Oil Surges as Investors Digest Iran News; Nasdaq Closes in Correction Territory
https://www.investopedia.com/stock-market-today-dow-jones-s-and-p-500-03262026-11934758
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The market is pretty oversold here and has fallen a great deal in a fairly short period of time.
The US president said "talks are ongoing." Earlier Thursday, Israel announced it had killed an Iranian commander involved in the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/26/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
The move down has been accelerating the past few days. Clear downside breakout witht the market seeing no end in sight to the quagmire in Iran and a lunatic in the White House that constantly contradicts himself and doesn't even know what he might do next.
Again, the crashing stock market is his priority and in this case, a wake up call for him and the only chance for him to do something sane to save it.
These 2 markets are trading in sync(much of the time) but in opposite directions.
The crude is more spikey!
By metmike - March 27, 2026, 9:55 a.m.
++++++++++
4:15 pm: What will the news be when we open on Sunday Night? The market (Wyckoff's "Composite Man") tell us they think it will be BAD news. Donald Trump completely making up things to jawbone the market higher is being ignored now.
Eventually this will end, of course but the permanent damage already greatly exceeds any possible gain by several orders of magnitude and it's getting worse by the day.
Small Gap lower. Im out with our grandson, Cyrus so no charts.
Here’s a little more about stock index and energy futures, which is not good for most folks/not what DT wants to see at all. Note NG being down, but I wonder if that’s only due to Friday’s expiration and a change of the front month. I don’t know:
BREAKING: US stock market futures open lower as Iran War peace talks appear to have stalled.
1. S&P 500: -0.7%
2. Nasdaq 100: -0.8%
3. Dow Jones: -0.7%
4. WTI Crude: +3.0%
5. Brent: +2.5%
6. Natural Gas: -7.0%
US gas prices are set to break above $4.00/gallon this week.
Thanks, Larry!
Great report. We had fun at the park with our 3 year old grandson!
They had a peace deal right before Netanyahu attacked to sabotage it, just like he did last June.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
There's the little gap lower on the weekly chart. It has very little meaning compared to most gaps but at this stage of a big move down, odds would ordinarily favor it being a selling exhaustion gap lower that would be confirmed by filling in, then a reversal higher on Monday.
Chaotic news about the Iran war, coming from Donald Trump's mouth/actions(with Israel) AND IRAN are in the drivers seat. At some point this will end but chances for us to get back to the old highs this year appear to be pretty bleak.
The rich person's president has completely lost the confidence of the people he serves and puts ahead of everybody else.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 week. Filled the gap lower. Was this an exhaustion gap, gap and crap at the end of a long move down? Will there be follow thru and a reversal up on Monday?
2. 1 month: Broken major support from late last year. Accelerating downtrend
3. 1 year: Rounded top pattern we started showing late last year has been CONFIRMED now for awhile! Chances of new highs this year are low but needed to negate this powerful topping formation.
4. 10 years. The exponential, parabolic move higher is no longer. BUT THE LONG TERM TREND IS STILL UP! Can the self fulfilling prophesy mentality overcome the still over valued prices which is connected to history/the past of a long term trend up under DIFFERENT dynamics. Under Donald Trump dynamics, we have a different much riskier paradigm. This includes the market dialing in the likelihood of him not finishing this term which is NOT bullish.
Stock futures rise as Trump signals progress in U.S.-Iran war talks: Live updates
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 357 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.8% each.
"The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran," Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Thanks, Larry!
Odds are very high that Donald Trump is lying!
Checking the latest news:
War escalates on multiple fronts and oil prices rise, as Iran contradicts Trump's claims.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump
++++++++++++++
This means that Donald Trump was lying again with his statements on Truth Social earlier this morning as he struggles and flounders with how to jawbone the stock market higher and crude market lower.
When Netanyahu tricked him into entering this war with over the top praise and fake adulation, Netanhahu completely understood these consequences. This war is good for what Israel wants to accomplish. Donald Trump, however was totally clueless and driven by his mental illness that causes his pathological drive to do everything based on the amount of recognition, flattering and fame that he thinks it will give him.
Putting his name on everything is just another obvious example of this psychological affliction to his mind. He should be receiving treatment for this mental disease by professionals but the exact, diamentrically opposed polar opposite has been happening.
As the most powerful man in the world, he is exploiting that position and abusing his power to the max to feed this pathological condition which has become massively progressive. How worse can it get when it, literally just caused the President of the United States to enter an unprovoked, COMPLETELY unjustified war against another country(that we were on the verge of a peace agreement with-and our own Intelligence department had just reported that Iran was NOT developing their nuclear weapons program-testified to under oath earlier this month) TO SERVE THAT COUNTRY in order to get their leaders over the top praise????
Our president just betrayed every American because he followed what Bibi Netanyahu tricked him into doing at the expense of every American. We are all paying a massive prices at the gas pump, with inflation for everything. With the tens of billions for military costs. With the huge increased risk for cyber attacks and terrorist attacks......because he is serving the leader of another country.
This is unprecedented in our country's history!!!
While entities like FOX and MAGA, twist this betrayal and blatantly treasonous act against the United States and our people to mean the 100% opposite of what I just described based on the AUTHENTIC FACTS.
Opinions vs authentic facts
Started by metmike - March 13, 2026, 11:24 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118642/
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Re: Re: Iran War 3/25/26+ (cont. from 3/8-25/26 thread)
By metmike - March 25, 2026, 7:44 p.m.
+++++++++++++++++=
For those that belong to MAGA that don't like it when their flawed political ideology is responsible for the core reasons for why many markets are being impacted by it in on March 30, 2026. This is objective analysis, like with everything else here(that doesn't have Donald Trump's direct fingerprint on it). Part of being a good market analyst and trader is being honest about what makes your/our markets tick and with that comes a deeper discussion into the root causes. That is if you really want the most comprehensive understanding.
Denial of the reasons/underlying dynamics because they contradict what you want to believe or wish was not true and me pretending something different was true to mollycoddle you would just be stealing your intelligence instead of providing you with the authentic truth AS YOUR FRIEND.
The White House is doing a press briefing.
"Iran talks are underway and going very well"
No, No, NO!!!!
That accurately described the negotiating BEFORE we attacked Iran unprovoked and unjustified so that Donald Trump could get praise from Bibi Netanyahu. Iran can no longer trust the US and is MUCH less likely to negotiate for an agreement with the ones in charge right now.
+++++++++++++
Legal expert says targeting civilian sites would be ‘collective punishment’, which is prohibited under laws of war.
++++++++++
He is clueless. If he had tens of millions OF IRANIANS that wanted the US to do this to get rid of the current regime but this is the diametrically opposed polar opposite right way to take advantage of it........unless he wants them to flip sides completely which is exactly what IS happening and following through with this threat, would be a heinous war crime against the 10s of millions of people that he claims to be freeing from oppression.
But here's the thing.
These continued threats to do this and that in 48 hours, then 5 days, then another 5 days then something else that are NEVER carried thru with after the deadline expires, completely destroys the credibility of the person making the threats.
Nobody believes anything he says anymore because its constantly changing and contradicting what he just said hours and even minutes earlier.
This is part of his progressive dementia that I've been describing and tracking on the NTR forum for over a year.
There has never been a human being that recovered from progressive dementia and Donald Trump will not be the first.
Donald Trumps behavior right now is the most important item determining the price of crude and the stock market….by a very wide margin.
This can’t go on forever. At some point, it will end but between now and then the market is fearful of it getting worse because an unhinged lunatic is in charge and making things up and making things even worse as we go along without a solid viable plan that makes good sense.
+++++++
This past month, before checking the latest news, I check the crude and stock market prices first, which tells me if there was any breaking news faster than anything else that requires finding news articles to read.
Ive been checking commodity prices all day long, every day for well over 3 decades but almost never to use as metrics for the news, every day for an entire month like this.
This is unprecedented!
+++++++
As Larry, tjc and cutworm know, the natural gas and grain markets will react just like this from huge changes on a weather model(s) during a sensitive weather market‘s key time frame.
This is a first for the CL and stock market to be this sensitive to NEWS for so long.
Economic data releases, EIA storage reports, USDA reports, yes the same thing but the market knows the days and exact times of those reports.
Nobody has a clue about what Donald Trump will say next and when he will say it. Not even Donald Trump
This has all been self inflicted by Donald Trump with no rational justification for the United States.
Here's the latest analysis:
Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - March 30, 2026, 8:19 p.m.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Big reversal up today after a long move down. Potential bottom in place..........depending on the NEWS.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 month: After the downtrend accelerated in the last several days, we saw a reversal up(from extreme oversold conditions) above the previous reaction level of support and are how trading above it. The NEWS will determine if this has follow thru but it looks promising.
2. 1 year: Rounded top formation was SOLIDLY CONFIRMED. With the reversal up today, it looks likely that we could get back above the significant lows/previous support from Oct/Nov 2025.
How far up we go depends on the NEWS. If the STRAIGHT of Hormuz opens up........there will be an enormous spike much higher. If Donald Trump bombs power plants and desalination plants or US troops enter a battle, that is less likely.
The market is trying to predict Donald Trump's actions before even Donald Trump knows what he will do
To be crystal clear on that point. Donald Trump had ZERO idea that his attacks on Iran would cause this reaction. His top priority is the stock market. His mention of it and taking credit for all the highs last year over and over and over prove that.
That has not changed. If he had done nothing, at the very least the stock indices could have held up. Now, we have another self inflicted crisis that WILL end at some point.........but there is even more permanent damage to the US's economy, reputation and to the entire world that can't be UNSEEN.
Interesting place!
The bulls have a great opportunity to build on Tuesday's reversal up!
The NEWS needs to be positive about the flow of oil and war. The market has dropped a lot(is oversold) and dialed in a lot of bad news.
I would NOT call this a bull flag, however. The rounded top formation looks to be the main pattern with odds pretty unlikely that we will make new highs for awhile. Even if the war ends soon.
Nobody really knows what will happen here. So new highs, although surprising to me are not impossible.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Donald Trump addressed the nation during prime time tonight to try to jaw bone the stock market higher with big lies. The red lines show the huge plunge lower during and just after his speech.
Donald Trump doesn't just have no credibility, he has NEGATIVE credibility. Traders and markets often ASSUME(like tonight) that what he says is a lie and the opposite of what he says is the truth. So they do the opposite of what the impact of his messages are intended to do.
The best thing that Trump could have done tonight is............nothing.
Instead of this unprovoked and unjustified war, Donald Trump should have done...........nothing.
Tariffs? Same thing. Doing the opposite of his tariffs would have had a beneficial impact on the economy instead of the strongly negative one.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
The stock market has been unable to break to new lows for the move, despite bearish news featuring new highs this week for crude.
that might mean the lows are in. However, stay tuned! Donald Trump has a knack for doing exactly the wrong things that sometimes result in doubling down on bad decisions instead of fixing them.
Good chance the lows are in as the stock indices, as indicated 5 hours ago were unable to follow the extremely bearish news of huge gains in the crude.
When a market can't go lower anymore on the most bearish news, the selling has been exhausted and there is nobody else to sell(or cover longs).
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 day: Crystal clear low with crude peaking +$13 earlier but unable to generate additional selling. Back up to the level of just before Donald Trump gave his confused man speech(on objectives and leadership) Wednesday evening.
2. 1 year: Reversal up earlier this week as noted previously as a potential, SIGNIFICANT bottom. Trying to get above the previous major support levels from late last year. This is still a NEWS driven market but the inability of the market to react negatively to really BEARISH news, is BULLISH!
The market wants so badly to go up.........but, ironically the mentally ill person that wants it to go higher more than he cares about Americans is preventing that because of his extremely pathological thinking that continues to make counter productive, ruinous decisions that double and triple down on the previously really bad decisions.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
Sadly, this is actually playing a key role in the market right now.
Mike,
I thought stock index futures would have opened further down than they did and crude further up than what they actually did.
The 'conflict in the middle East' has just about run its course. March 31 appears to have marked the low. The downs are bought (not V shaped, but recovery buying). Best to buy technology and hold
I agree very strongly with you guys!!!
In the midst of what seemed like the worst news yet on the war late last week, we could NOT make the stock market go lower anymore.
The economic news on Friday about jobs was a positive too.
Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 2, 2026, 12:12 p.m.
Since last week's reversal up and inability to go any lower on maximum bearish news, we continue to see a powerful sign that the lows are in!
We've also broken the accelerating downtrend that started after the unjustified war started.
This could also be just a bear flag since a MAJOR(rounded top) formation was confirmed over a month ago.
A 10%+ drop from the highs is a big deal!
The NEWS still matters. There is no question that economic damage from this war will continue to negatively impact our country for several months to come, even if the war ended tomorrow.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 year. Same graph and analysis as the previous page with a significant low in last week when the market was unable to react to even MORE bearish news and instead, reversed higher. Then continued to go down on bearish news.
1. 1 month: Numerous interesting chart features. We had an ACCELERATING down trend since the war started over a month ago that ended with a selling EXHAUSTION, SPIKE LOW last week. After that, even MORE bearish news resulted in the market being no longer able to go down. Which means the only path is up! That the inverted HEAD AND SHOULDERS pattern with the head/bottom and 2 shoulders on either side.
The most noteworthy feature is the price at the every end. Spiking up after Donald Trump backed down for the 5th time with 90 minutes left on his timeline.
His threats this morning to Iran, did not result in Iran's leaders getting scared and negotiating. It had the opposite impact. This was just the mouth of the most powerful man in the world, unfit for office causing market chaos. We could have negotiated a cease fire at any time for the past few weeks without President Trump's lunatic comments And opened the straight of Hormuz.
Interestingly, it's Donald Trump that has agreed to consider almost all of Iran's demands and he has agreed to letting Iran maintain control of the strait when they didn't have control of it before the war! WOW!
All one needs is found in the charts.
News (imvho)... an excuse to induce liquidity.
My favorite setup !!
Best of trade to everyone!!
Same analysis since last week when we put in the major low by going up on bearish news!
1 month chart below.
1. Clearly violating the previous downtrend!
2. Inverted head and shoulders bottom formation.
3. Huge spike higher on Monday after the peace agreement and upside break out of the horizontal neckline, which I should have extended to all the way across the left side of the page too.
4. Potential bull flag? Regardless, crude is soaring higher again today.........and the stock market is only experiencing a modest correction to the HUGE gains this week.
Exact same analysis as yesterday on the monthly chart below. More bearish news today but the market ignored it again.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/inverse-head-and-shoulders/
https://howtotrade.com/chart-patterns/inverse-head-and-shoulders-pattern/
Speculative opinion. Hard down, maybe Monday and Tuesday. LOW IS IN. This will be a very good chance to get LONG.
Low was in the 18th week (NORMAL 13-24, 18-21likely), on 36th day for daily cycle (semi precise!). Friday marked Five daily %R sells, so due for retrace.
Fundamental, negotiations semi fail--pace too slow, thus tumble. Note--fundamental reason lags analytically.
Two cents---trade accordingly. Buy nasqac soxl
“Two Pakistani officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the press, said a third round of discussions between the delegation heads had finished and the talks would resume after a break.
Then the U.S. vice president addressed the press, announced there was no agreement and went to the airport to leave Pakistan.”
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-iran-talks-set-bring-042653460.html
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BKccF8u9Za8&pp=0gcJCdUBo7VqN5tD&ra=m
———-
Does this mean stock futures will be down and crude futures will be up tomorrow evening?
Thanks, Larry!
I don't know. Honestly, I didn't think they would come to an agreement but can't say what the market thought. tjc offered some great thoughts. The stock market took the most bearish punches from the war news yet at the end of March and went up with a selling exhaustion/reversal up formation instead. Low credibility Donald Trump claims to have cleared the Strait of Hormuz FINALLY but assuming the opposite of what he states is around 90% right. However, this time he might be right instead of just jawboning.
1. Israel continues to bombard Lebanon, ramping it up exactly when the cease fire condition demanding he stop it so we know it was intentionally to sabotage the cease fire and peace negotiations.
2. Irad had agreed to reduce their enriched uranium in February, then Netanyahu coaxed Donald Trump into bombing them, and betraying the integrity of the negotiating and seem less inclined to give that up now.
3. The stock market has shown that it wants to trade independently of the bad news from the war or at least to ignore that news when its bearish for stocks and go up when its bullish for the stock market. However, we were bombarded with mega bearish news every day in March and extremely oversold, with nobody left to sell.
Each week has been different and we can't assume anything based on the news and reaction from the previous week. If Donald Trump is correct and the US has cleared the Strait and ships start passing thru again, it doesn't matter that no agreement was reached. However, even that could flip again. It seems likely that Iran will again try to threaten that traffic with MORE mines or more drone attacks on the ships that can't be completely eliminated. We all know that obstructing the flow of ships thru the Straits is the source of almost all of Iran's power. All they need to do is hit just 1 ship trying to pass and none of the others are going to pass. These are not military ships with captains who signed up to fight wars. These are civilian ships with personal that don't want to risk dying to deliver oil. One thing that I thought of is that if we offered to double or triple their pay it might help. Then there's the oil companies. Maybe they are the ones calling the shots with their valuable ships and valuable cargo(oil).
Just some of my thoughts but the bottom line is that this could just be a wait and see what happens this week, with Sunday Night being uncertain.
Friday's closes often have the most uncertainty premium(2 days worth) in them but sometimes its the opposite. 2 days worth of new news and added uncertainty while not trading is alot in this environment.
There are people with much more at stake than us who know things we don't (about ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz) that might tip us off.
I really wish this would end! It's not good weather trading season in April(the heating season is over and cooling season hasn't started for ng) (the C and S haven't been planted but rain makes grain for W right now). However, all markets have a black war cloud over them right now. On weekends(when the market is closed), that black cloud could cause a flash flood or it could pass and be replaced by sunshine.
9am update:
Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks end without agreement
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That latest news would seem to "trump" the previous news so sometimes, its a waste of time speculating because Trump's mouth can't be predicted.
Same analysis as the last 10 days!
The stock indices are holding almost all their gains(despite BEARISH news), after the inverted head and shoulders formation, with the upside break out above the neck line.
Worst case scenario appears to be a testing of the neckline(previous broken strong resistance that will now serve as strong support)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
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https://www.wallstreetmojo.com/inverse-head-and-shoulders/
MetMike
We are in agreement. The market no longer treats "bearish news" as bad. Low is in.
Must buy dips! Tech
This FREE source is often flawed on exact prices, with other stock market indices NOT at the old highs yet but it shows the big picture well right now.
On the long term charts, it looks like just another correction/bull flag. With the long term trend still holding and if anything, with a slightly steepening slope up.
This is surprising to me in a sense, considering the market has been bombarded with so much negative news but on the other hand, it continues to confirm my feeling that this is a rich person's Ponzi scheme following the law of self fulfilling prophesies(where people's strong expectations of something happen, cause it to happen by their behavior, despite fundamentals that contradict it happening).
While we predicted the lows 2 weeks ago, based on the market's inability to go lower anymore, even when being bombarded with MORE bearish news(selling exhaustion), I am shocked that we recovered all the losses this year so quickly!!!!
Some of the indices are approaching the record highs, this one is above them. WOW!!! We should note that the stock market is much more important to Donald Trump than almost any other realm in our country or the world. The rich people in the stock market know this too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
With the stock market at new highs on Friday, Donald Trump's diseased brain will interpret this as justification and positive reinforcement for everything that he has done, as well as it being an exoneration for everything that he has done wrong and justification to triple, quadruple, quintuple and sextuple down on those ruinous paths.
