SPR oil, which sits stored in numerous places in the US and world with nobody thinking much about it for years and years.
Until an oil crisis like this one happens. We all know what caused this but now, we have no idea of how it might end or how long it might go and the person most responsible has no idea either and because he let it go down this path, the dynamics have gone beyond his control and every American is paying a price that releasing SPR oil, clearly can't help with.
Whoops!
By metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:17 a.m.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is an emergency stockpile of petroleum maintained by the United States Department of Energy (DOE). It is the largest publicly known emergency supply in the world; its underground tanks in Louisiana and Texas have capacity for 714 million barrels (113,500,000 m3).[1] The United States started the petroleum reserve in 1975 to mitigate future supply disruptions as part of the international Agreement on an International Energy Program, after oil supplies were interrupted during the 1973–1974 oil embargo.[2]
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4
This graph below is updated daily without me doing anything.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
Every day that passes by with MUCH higher gas prices and this being the headline news (that Donald Trump cares so much about) is a day closer to the elections in November and causes X number of ADDITIONAL people to feel betrayed by his promises to the American people. Everybody notices this impact with their pocket books when filling up their vehicles. 15 gallons X $1 for instance is $15 more to fill up a tank of gas X 100 million vehicles = $1.5 Billion with a B.
That's how much LESS money that consumers have to spend, every time they fill up their gas tanks. Being the rich person's president that ignores the needs of the poor who are most impacted is not an option here.
This also increases the cost of moving goods across the country.
This is very stifling to the economy too!!! The longer this war continues, the more HUGE the impact will be on the economy.
Energy is the lifeblood of every developed countries economy. The graph above is worth a thousand words and a billion dollars of losses to Americans in totality for every fill up and that is multiplied by significant economic losses. Not an opinion. It's basic math and economic principles.
If this goes on for weeks, it could be the driving force to trigger a major economic recession(added to the already major damage from the ruinous tariffs).
Donald Trump is dug in on the tariffs but he knows that he has to do something to get the price of gas down ASAP and I feel confident that's where his mind is right now since it couldn't be more crystal clear to EVERYBODY (unfortunately doing damage control for a whopper of a blunder caused by pathological thinking, instead of making smart decisions to start with that would have, should have completely avoided this).
I will remind everybody that Iran had caved into Donald Trump's demands regarding the enriched uranium. They were giving him what he wanted........but Netanyahu manipulated Donald Trump into REJECTING peace and instead, suddenly bombing Iran because schemer Netanyahu doesn't care about high gas prices or the stock market and he convinced Donald Trump that the world would see how great he is if he bombed Iran.
Netanyahu congratulates Trump on ‘bold decision’ to attack Iran
This source is NOT graphing correctly. The highs today were just over $97 and we almost tested the top of the 2nd, much bigger gap higher from last Sunday Night which was around $98. We've had a small pullback from that level in the last hour.
The first gap higher from the Sunday Night after Trump/Netanyahu attacked Iran unprovoked is still wide open on the left/bottom.
Eventually, I think that we will fill that gap once the war is over and Donald Trump is likely now focusing on that.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W.png)
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https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
.png)
Joe Biden released a massive amount of SPR oil after the Ukraine war started in order to cover for his blunder from a refusal to negotiate with Russia(that led to the war) and the high oil prices that resulted. There was no emergency, just high prices.
The SPR was never replenished. This was odd recently when crude dropped and we had the opportunity to refill the SPR at real cheap prices but the refill rates were not that great. Possibly because forecasts were for even lower crude prices but they totally blew that chance.
++++++++++++
In thinking about this more, I think that Donald Trump intentionally did NOT fill the SPR because the additional buying demand would have INCREASED the price of crude, just like RELEASING crude from the SPR is intended to suppress prices.
DT is mainly focused on doing things to make the price of gas go lower and filling the SPR, counter intuitively can cause gas prices to actually go higher in the short run.
Because DT sees himself as the King of low gas prices, Iran has him by the balls and he will do ANYTHING to stop this. Of course he will completely make up his reasons to cover up THE REAL reasons (price of gas and stock market dropping) but I think the lunatic narratives from DT last week about this lasting for weeks, for the regime to throw down their weapons and surrender, for the people of Iran to take their country and so on are being replaced with "this is just a brief incursion" already as he tries to back out of his catastrophic decision to bomb Iran/start an unprovoked war because the leader of another country manipulated him using his mental illness.
+++++++
Yesterday, Donald Trump claimed that he filled the SPR up during his 1st term and he was just taking out the oil that he put in there. He has soooo lost touch with reality on his lies. They already defined him during his 1st term but his progressive dementia is making it impossible for him to tell the difference anymore.
Just look at the graph above. The SPR went DOWN during Donald Trumps first term. If anything, he might have been using it to try to keep oil/gas prices lower for political reasons.
+++++++++++++++++++
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723007730
https://www.worldometers.info/oil/us-oil/
The graph at the top shows that we produce MORE crude in the United States than we consume. .....but there is more to it than that.
There are different kinds of crude and the US does not produce enough of the heavy., high sulfur, sour crude that our refineries are designed to use in order to convert it to the refined products.
So we MUST import some of that type of crude, even as we export the sweet, low sulfur, light crude oil that we have an excess of.
https://www.api.org/energy-insights/charts-analysis/us-primarily-imports-heavy-crude-oils
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crude_oil_products
The three most quoted oil products are North America's West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), Brent Crude from the North Sea, and Dubai Crude from UAE, and their pricing is used as a barometer for the entire petroleum industry, although, in total, there are 46 key oil exporting countries. Brent Crude is typically priced at about $2 over the WTI Spot price, which is typically priced $5 to $6 above the EIA's Imported Refiner Acquisition Cost (IRAC) and OPEC Basket prices. WTI and Brent are quoted FOB specific locations, not FOB the oilfields. For WTI, the delivery point is Cushing, Oklahoma; for Brent, it is Sullom Voe, located in Shetland, an island archipelago north of mainland Scotland.
Although crude oil assays evaluate various chemical properties of the oil, the two most important properties that determine a crude's value are its density (measured as API specific gravity) and its sulphur content (measured per mass). Crude oil is considered "heavy" if it has long hydrocarbon chains, or "light" if it has short hydrocarbon chains: an API gravity of 34 or higher is "light", between 31 and 33 is "medium", and 30 or below is "heavy". Crude is considered "sweet" if it is low in sulphur content (< 0.5%/weight), or "sour" if high (> 1.0%/weight). Generally, the higher the API gravity (the "lighter" it is), the more valuable the crude.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_strategic_petroleum_reserves
Global strategic petroleum reserves (GSPR) refer to crude oil inventories (or stockpiles) held by the government of a particular country, as well as private industry, to safeguard the economy and help maintain national security during an energy crisis. Strategic reserves are intended to be used to cover short-term supply disruptions.
As of March 9, 2026, approximately 1.8 billion barrels (290,000,000 m3) of oil was held in strategic reserves by International Energy Agency member states.[1] In 2004, approximately 4.1 billion barrels (650,000,000 m3) of oil was held in these strategic reserves, of which 1.4 billion is government-controlled and the remainder held by private industry.[2] In February 2022, this amounted to close to two years' worth of net oil imports held in IEA member states' strategic petroleum reserves.[3] The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has consistently held the largest strategic reserve.[2][4] Some non-IEA countries have started work on their own strategic petroleum reserves. China has the largest of these new reserves.[5]Global oil consumption is in the region of 0.1 billion barrels (16,000,000 m3) per day.[6] The 4.1 billion barrels reserve held in 2004 would be equivalent to 41 days of current production.
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Introduction
Strategic Petroleum Reserves are becoming a key component of global energy security in 2026, giving countries a crucial safety net against supply interruptions and geopolitical shocks. The ongoing dispute between Iran and Israel highlights how vulnerable Middle Eastern oil shipments are, which raises questions about price volatility and instability in the region. While nations with low capacity, like India, are still susceptible to unexpected shortages, countries with strong reserves, like South Korea, Japan, and the United States, are better positioned to stabilise markets and reassure customers. In a world where oil is still essential despite the accelerated energy shift, nations may promote collective security, increase resilience against energy crises, and reduce the risks of conflict-driven supply disruptions by developing and coordinating an SPR strategy.
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I will site the study from the previous page that showed that our SPR has a limited impact on prices and that this article above is SPECULATIVE.
Regardless, it seems like an excellent idea.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-worlds-largest-oil-producers/
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it was “unfortunate” that the move could benefit Russia, but maintained that it was only for the short term.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/12/us/politics/trump-russia-oil-sanctions.html
Here's the profoundly ironic thing. The almighty United States tells other countries how to behave. Imposing sanctions on Russia for instance for it's illegal war on Ukraine.
While at the same time breaking International laws with impunity all over the place. Bombing dozens of boats and murdering the occupants. Bombing 8 different countries illegally. Taking Venezuela by force.
And they get away with it because they are led by the most powerful man from the most powerful country with the most powerful military by a wide margin. NOBODY can stop or even challenge them.
To accommodate their illegal actions, they even take off their penalties on another country for doing something like they are doing.
This is pretty insane!
Trump's bombing countries illegally
Started by metmike - March 4, 2026, 8:45 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118393/
The law of unintended consequences!
https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~haroldfs/540/handouts/french/unintconseq.html
The first and most complete analysis of the concept of unintended consequences was done in 1936 by the American sociologist Robert K. Merton. In an influential article titled "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action," Merton identified five sources of unanticipated consequences. The first two, and the most pervasive, were ignorance and error.
Merton labeled the third source the "imperious immediacy of interest." By that he was referring to instances in which an individual wants the intended consequence of an action so much that he purposefully chooses to ignore any unintended effects.
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https://garyacosta.com/current-affairs/the-law-of-unintended-consequences/
Unexpected drawbacks – This type of unintended consequence occurs when the goal is to improve “A,” we later learn that we made “B” worse in the process. These are also referred to as “externalities.” The mass adoption of the automobile in the early part of the 20th century provided many benefits but created unexpected drawbacks such as air pollution and car accidents.
Perverse results – ‘Perverse Results’ happen when our goal is to improve “A” but we actually make “A” worse. These are often the most frustrating category of unintended consequences.
Re: : Market opens tonight, 3-1-2026/crude
By metmike - March 18, 2026, 10:49 a.m.
Crude continues to have a massive Netanyahu/Trump war premium. To go lower we need NEWS that the Gulf of Hormuz will be opening.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
The highs on the graphs below are not accurate.
1. 1 day: Uptrend from last weeks spike low. Not graphing correctly. We gap opened higher at the top red line around 101.5. Filled the gap for a gap and crap buying exhaustion signal that MEANS VERY LITTLE in this market right now. Tested the trendline and are back higher but well below the lows tonight.
2. 1 week: Sideways trading between 92-102 with actual highs(on the open tonight) and lows tested a couple of times last week.
3. 1 month: Steep uptrend since the start of the war. Huge gap and crap high/reversal down on March 8/9, then spike down that found brick wall support at 80. Sideways trading the last week from 92-102.
4. 1 year: Downtrend all of 2025. Double bottom lows late Dec./early Jan. Uptrend Jan/Feb, Enormous spike higher to start March.
5. 10 years: COVID lows 2020. Biden/Putin/Zelensky, Ukraine war spike high early 2022. Steady downtrend 2024/25. Enormous spike up from Netanyahu/Trump war.
This isn’t something you see every day or even for many years sometimes. Within a mere 3 minutes (7:05AM to 7:08AM), crude plunged from 98.61 to 84.59, a drop of a whopping 14%!! This was due to DT announcing a 5 day delay in attacking Iran’s energy grids. However, it has since semi dead-catted all the way back up to 92.77, a 10% semi dead-cat! Perhaps that big bounce has a lot of non-deadcat and largely may be due to Iran claiming no talks were held. Holy cow regarding the last hour!
Is DT motivated most by his hopes of getting the Nobel in ending still another war in his own mind?
Thanks very much, Larry!
I've seen thousands of examples of the markets trading NEWS before but this one, outside of 9-11-01 was the most extreme.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 day: There's that incredible spike lower that Larry referred to.
2. 1 month: Down side break out from sideways pattern.
Where do we go from here?
The news based on Donald Trump's mouth is a key but Iran has a say in it now. One thing that we should assume is that Donald Trump's top priority now is the value of the stock market and the price crude market, so his lies will be conjured up to jawbone those markets as much as possible.
Until this is resolved, it's impossible to predict what comes next.
We're deeply into the land of unintended consequences as Donald Trump flounders with damage control to deal with his SELF INFLICTED mess.
As Mike and others know, DT is largely motivated by the movement in the stock and crude oil markets. But he’s also often motivated by the opportunity to make deals and possibly win a peace prize. So, these supposed talks would be consistent in those ways.
I do feel this is also setting up the possibility for a disagreement between DT and Bibi but we’ll see
Thanks very much, Larry!
Donald Trump told one of his many lies earlier to jawbone the markets in the direction he wanted. This was actually obvious from the get go.
We killed the ones that were negotiating with us. Whoever is in charge now is LESS likely to agree to terms and MUCH LESS LIKELY to even negotiate because they are trying to lay low and avoid being the next fatality in the Netanyahu/Trump unjustified war.
And Iran KNOWS that they have Donald Trump by the balls. Why would they let him off so soon and so easy???
There is no way that any agreement is made unless it includes a guarantee of no more attacks in the future AND A WITHDRAWAL OF OUR MILITARY!
Last word we got is that Donald Trump was sending ground troops to the area. Iran is NOT going to agree to anything under this situation. They laugh at Donald Trump's fork tongue words. Only the reality of him moving his military OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST will ring true.
Iran says it’s not in negotiations with the US, ‘Trump backed down’
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5796269-donald-trump-pauses-iran-strikes/
Donald Trump will continue to blatantly lie/make things up and the media will report Donald Trump's lies and the markets will trade the lies.
However, with time the lies have less and less impact as REALITY sets in.
++++++++++
Who would have every thought that we could live in a world that can trust the messaging coming out of Iran much, MUCH more that what's coming out of the White House!
Larry,
I think you are right about the potential disagreement between Bibi and Trump.
Bibi has little concern about our stock market and not as much on oil prices.
He wants to completely obliterate Iran and maximize the damage, no matter how long it takes.
He is also motivated to save his own skin and he hates Irans guts like no other and we saw the quintessential example of what vengeance means for him in Gaza.
Thanks, Mike.
It’s important to keep in mind that Iran and Gaza are two totally different situations even though Hamas is an Iranian proxy. Unlike the tens of thousands of innocent Gazan mainly women and children who shouldn’t have been killed (that was horrible), the Iranian regime has been preaching death to Israel for 47 years and they are evil. They’ve basically asked for it. Bibi supports the 80% of Iranian citizens who hate their regime. Thus I see no reason why he’d want to kill the general Iranian citizenry. He hates the Iranian mullahs for good reason. He doesn’t at all hate the innocent Iranian citizenry as a whole. He appears to like them and empathizes with their lack of freedom. But then one can ask why he doesn’t also seem to care about innocent Palestinian children and women?
I don't think anybody believed the tale about negotiations.
The more serious news was the 5 day halt.
The most likely explanation is that we're running low on missiles, and the talk of - or maybe eventual reality of - negotiations is to obscure the fact that we can't just go ahead forever blasting a country 4 times the size of California.
Thanks, Larry!
That's actually not what I meant.
I meant his mentality of letting hatred and ability to unleash his unchallenged military with impunity upon anybody that he decides to punish OR damage based on whatever his (defending Israel) justification doctrine are.
While killing the innocents in Gaza, he was always "defending Israel" even though they were no threat to him.
Completely different scenario here and as you mentioned(which I agree with) he is "defending Israel" again.
You and me can decide what the rational "defending Israel" justification is. Netanyahu abuses the application of that term because he is a psychopath obsessed with his own agenda.
It's sort of crazy for us to rationalize "good" killing by a genocidal, war criminal, that just punished the entire world because, NOW he's killing people more deserving of being killed than the last 70,000 he killed that were no threat to him by starting a war with his mortal enemy and dragging in the United States.
I totally get why Israel benefits TREMENDOUSLY from this war. This is probably the best thing that ever happened to the country of Israel. The rest of the world? They are paying a huge price with almost every person on the planet suffering, especially low income people that can't afford this huge boost in energy prices.
Rich people's investments are being hurt and in a GLOBAL recession, which is threatening the entire world right now, the cumulative suffering and elevated risk (including starvation deaths) for this unprovoked attack is numerous orders of magnitude worse than the benefits to Israel.
Here in the United States, it couldn't be more clear that Donald Trump is "Israel First"
I understand our commitment to Israel as our ally but Israel just profoundly violated that relationship because Bibi used his brilliance, charisma and profound understanding of the thinking of Donald Trump (who thrives on praise from powerful people) to completely control our pathologically thinking president. Constantly showering him with the most eloquent, Donald Trump is great speeches that he sends out (like a heroin fix to an addict) and gifts (nominating him for the Nobel Peace Price in a staged presentation at the White House(months after the deadline had passed last Summer).
Then, last week in a damage control speech after a whistle blower, top person in our Intelligence Agency came out with the truth about Israel controlling Donald Trump's decision, he claimed folly over the claim that anybody could ever control Donald Trump.
How ironic that I just explained EXACTLY how he does it. But those are just words, let me give you just 1 example of him doing it after Netanyahu sabotaged our peace deal with Iran last June and got Donald Trump to suddenly bomb Iran because of his "Iran is about to get a nuclear bomb" narrative the same one he's used for the past 3 decades.
June 22, 2025:
Netanyahu praises Trump's 'bold decision' to strike Iranian nuclear sites
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL4rmsJHX08
After watching that video, ask yourself how anything he said could be true if less than 9 months after it, Israel and the United States had to start a NEW war with Iran.
Very profound, patrick!
Exactly right. Despite our huge stockpile of weapons, we will be and may be already running out of some munitions, especially the expensive ones used to defend Israel against their missiles.
Tehran is hit by ‘a wide-scale wave of strikes’ as US President Donald Trump extends deadline for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
++++++++++++++++
Trump threatening to take out their entire power grid isn't very consistent with his and Netanyahu's claim that they are doing this to free the people. Ahead of the brutally hot Summer in Iran, this would result in thousands of innocent people dying from the heat and lack of water because they live in a desert that needs the energy for desalination plants to purify sea water for drinking. For pumping out well water. For transporting water from its rivers.
Iran - weather in July
https://www.climatestotravel.com/weatherbymonth/iran/july
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https://water.fanack.com/iran/water-resources-in-iran/
So Donald Trump is threatening to commit an horrific war crime against the people of Iran!
48 hours until Donald Trump commits a despicable war crime against the Iranian people to punish their leaders.
Never mind, that didn't work so......... 5 days until he commits a despicable war crime against the Iranian people to punish their leaders because there are fake negotiations with the Iranian leaders.
Investing.com -- Traders on Monday placed bets worth about $580 million in the oil market approximately 15 minutes before President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post about Iran talks that sent crude prices tumbling, according to a report by the Financial Times.
Around 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate futures contracts changed hands between 6:49 a.m. and 6:50 a.m. New York time, the FT estimated based on Bloomberg data. The trades occurred about 15 minutes before Trump’s 7:04 a.m. post stating there had been "productive conversations" with Tehran to end the war in Iran.
Later on Monday, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran’s parliament, denied in a post on X that any negotiations between Washington and Tehran had taken place.
eeny meeny miny moe, what Donald Trump says next makes the market go!
What Donald Trump says after that..........even he doesn't know!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
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For a comprehensive, AUTHENTIC, honest/objective explanation for how this war started:
Iran war 3/8/26+ (cont. from other thread)
March 24, 2026, 6:15 a.m.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
I put in some of the spikes on news over the last few weeks.
1. 1 day
2. 1 month
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1 month: The NEWS will determine where we go. However, every day that ticks by with prices this high is taxing/damaging global economies by XX billions of dollars and that money isn't coming back to consumers.
Sadly, Russia is making out like bandits.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9d415g55nno
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https://bacon.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2879
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The market is adding risk premium again ahead of a potential show down. NEWS could spike us up or down $5+ dollars in seconds. $10+ dollars in minutes can't be ruled out in this trading environment with a chaotic madman calling the impulsive shots on 1 end and a never give up/determined terrorist regime on the other end which is dug in, with no interest in negotiating with "Fork Tongue Trump" that has betrayed their negotiations with attacks in June 2025 and again this time.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
USA has issued a temporary waiver to expand sales of gasoline blends with 15% ethanol (E15) to combat surging gas prices. E10 is already widely available year-round. The waiver begins May 1 and goes for 20 days, and it can be extended if necessary.
For interest, here is a chart of weekly average U.S. regular-grade gasoline prices since 2023, with the timeframes of each E15 waiver announcement marked in red.
Trump Says He Expected Oil and Gas Prices Would Go Higher Due to Iran War | WSJ News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EjxEjzsFMk
Hugh???????????????? He's just spouting complete nonsense from an imaginary world!
In other words, he took these actions thinking it would be even worse????
Not only is that a blatant lie (he got caught completely flat footed and this is a lie to make us think otherwise) but he doesn't realize that his lies about one thing make him look even worse. Why in the heck would he do this if he thought it would be even worse than REALLY BAD for Americans and the world???
Most unbiased experts know this was a mistake because of his lack of comprehending the consequences but he wants us to believe that he thought it would be an even bigger mistake.........but did it anyways
Donald Trump seems to be more and more clueless about what comes next. He can't even tell us about what already happened accurately. Iran probably knows more about what's coming next, very sadly. The charts mean almost nothing other than what the market thinks right now and everybody is just guessing.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
The US president said "talks are ongoing." Earlier Thursday, Israel announced it had killed an Iranian commander involved in the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/26/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
The red lines were just SOME of the spikes up and down related to news, mostly from Donald Trump's mouth. There's not much new to say except that the market is dialing in additional risk premium ahead of a weekend in a quagmire that has no end in sight.
The market could open up or down by $10+ on Sunday Night. The chance of that on any other weekend in crude oil history(before the war) was near 0.
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4pm: This is the weekly chart. We closed on the highs. Part of this could be large traders NOT wanting to be short with the potential to open $10 higher on Sunday Night and it depending on whatever a demented psychopath decides to do. The market is clearly thinking higher prices are coming and very frequently this type of close leads to a gap higher Sunday night.
HOWEVER, in this case, if nothing new happens, numerous $$$$s of risk premium could come out fast on Sunday Night like it did last Sunday Night when the news didn't get much worse during the 2 days that the markets were closed.
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Here's the thing. Unlike most BAD news, like Donald Trump's ruinous tariffs or other policies, including whether this war is justified or not, which features people of the 2 parties believing whatever their party tells them at their echo chambers...... there is 1 profoundly powerful, EXTREMELY HARMFUL and IMMEDIATE element that every adult can connect to this time!
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
$15 more every time we fill up our tanks. $1,000,000,000 more to consumers on every tank fill up. This greatly increases the cost of transportation which is passed on to us on most goods but that metric is invisible. If we pay A% more for product B, most people will not notice it and have no idea how much of it was from the Netanyahu/Trump war in Iran.
The price of gas stands out. It's profoundly direct for everybody's pocketbook and everybody knows the reason why. And most importantly, it's MASSIVE. When I filled my gas tank up last weekend on the way back from our chess tournament and it was over $50, even though I knew that was coming it was still pretty impactful.
Rich people that Donald Trump serves will not be hurt from something like this, however, they completely understand how negative this is on our economy.
Cheap, reliable(abundant) energy, especially fossil fuels is the life blood of every economy. Its one of the reasons that people voted for Donald Trump.
There is nothing.........NOTHING that can be accomplished here in Iran that can come close to touching the galactic damage/negatives.
The BEST news possible would be:
1. The honest end of this monumental damage is in sight.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Tiny gap higher on the open just got filled. Was it a gap and crap buying exhaustion gap higher???
Anything is possible with the current near maximum chaotic dynamic and uncertainty and constantly breaking NEWS.
The AAA national average unleaded regular price today is $3.99. So tomorrow will definitely break $4.
Doubt anybody thinks we'll see it under $4 again this year.
Thanks, patrick!
This will end at some point, however:
1. It was absolutely not necessary
2. It was unprovoked and unjustified
3. It was started by Bibi Netanyahu controlling Donald Trump's Mt.Everest sized ego.
4. The damage and cost to Americans, even if it ended tomorrow is massive and a couple of orders of magnitude greater than the benefits. Cost of gas, inflation, military expenses, stock market losses equate to close to 5 trillion.
5. Add to this all the other economies/countries in the world and their losses and the total losses are AT LEAST many tens of trillions! All because of Netanya and Donald Trump.
6. On the evening of March 31st, a month after it started, it's GETTING WORSE
7. The worst possible leader of the United States in history is in charge. Constantly miscalculating and making blundering decisions based on incredibly pathological thinking/mental illness.
8. Donald Trump is LYING about negotiations with Iran.
9. Donald Trump has violated peace negotiations with Iran in June 2025 and again 1 month ago(to earn over the top praise from Netanyahu who understands his mental illness). They would never believe anything from him now.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 month: Breaking out to the upside(on bullish news about Iran striking an oil tanker)
2. 1 week: Uptrend accelerating a bit on BULLISH NEWS, despite attempts of Donald Trump to jawbone the price of crude down.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/reply_post/119114/
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The law of unintended consequences because of the most powerful man in the world(who is mentally ill) making decisions based on maximizing the over the top praising, flattering and adulating of a foreign leader for him, who is the one benefiting has clobbered the entire world!
June 22, 2025:
Netanyahu praises Trump's 'bold decision' to strike Iranian nuclear sites
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL4rmsJHX08
+++++++++++=
8:20pm: Reversals down like this (-$4 in an hour) are part of the recent, incredibly volatile pattern:
For the record, up 2.8 cents
Thanks, Patrick!
I need to add another item to the list above.
10. DEATHS OF INNOCENT PEOPLE! In a justified war, deaths of innocents are unavoidable. This is NOT a justified war for the United States. There is no better example than our huge blunder of bombing a girls school. This actually was avoidable based on competence. Making it even worse was Donald Trump‘s lies that it was Iran instead of apologizing and acknowledging our awful mistake. Donald Trump completely lacks empathy for other human beings which is part of why it was so easy for Netanyahu‘s over the top praise to make him think this was such a great idea to elevate and adulate Donald Trump at the expense of, not just the thousands of direct casualties in the Middle East including some of our brave soldiers but literally the major impact on billions of people on the planet. The total cumulative losses from this war, that include loss of life, financial, environmental and massive destruction of historical architecture in Iran is on a scale that is mind boggling.
All because Donald Trump wanted to please Mr. Netanyahu to get his extreme praise addiction fix that he constantly craves because of his advancing, positively reinforced, severe mental disease/affliction that his brain suffers from.
This is the front month that closed a bit lower but ALL the back months had huge reversals down in tandem with the stock market's reversal up.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Donald Trump asked all the major networks to give up some prime time, when they make the most money during the highest ratings so that he could deliver an important, key/new message to Americans about things of utmost importance that required cutting into prime time.
As expected, it was just more Donald Trump telling absurd lies to try to jawbone the markets in the direction that he wants them to go in. With a continuation of him thinking he has magical mystery powers over the minds of people .............NOT in MAGA.
MAGA believes all of his lies. However, crude oil traders spiked up $6 during and just after his propaganda nonsense that he actually thought would have the exact opposite impact.
This has been a pattern with Donald Trump. Doing things that have the complete opposite impact that he thought they would, then lying about it to claim how great his decisions are and how smart he is.
1. 1 day: Red lines show the markets reaction to Donald Trump's speech intended to make crude oil go down. Huge spike higher.
2. 1 month: Market still in an impressive uptrend because of the unprovoked, unjustified war that Donald Trump entered to please Bibi Netanyahu in order to get praising from him......betraying Americans.
Crude has continued higher and higher after Donald Trumps speech designed to jawbone the market lower had a profoundly opposite impact as the market listened to a message of a confused, desperate leader in control of the most powerful military in the world but completely lacking in rational thinking and planning for consequences for his loose cannon decisions that are driven by the pathological need for praise.
although Bibi Netanyahu used his power of praise to get Donald Trump to put ISRAEL FIRST, that Fox News, which Donald Trump watches constantly is greatly contributing to this ruinous behavior.
All the evening hosts at Fox have been raving about Donald Trumps brilliance and bravery the past month and insisting on manufactured realities (fake news) while adulating Donald Trump in the way that feeds his,pathological need for flattery so that it blinds him to all the other dynamics.
He believes only Fox, Netanyahu and his minions that were appointed to cheer for him …..or lose their jobs.
At the same time, calling reality based sources telling the truth and using authentic facts “fake news” in a truly delusional state.of horrible decision making.
Crude is now up $8 and building on the upside break out from Donald Trumps speech.
Crude is up $10......make that $11+, after Donald Trump gave us a prime time speech displaying a complete lack of comprehensive understanding, leadership and objectives with regards to how to manage the war, claiming the the Strait of Hormuz will "open naturally" and completely contradicting previous statements about regime change, which he finally figured out was not doable, NOW according to him was never an objective.
416,000 contracts traded in the front month, May.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
The unleaded gas is ONLY up 14c, so it's struggling to follow crudes enormous gains, suggesting the top may be close or in for RB.
+++++++
12:30pm:
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5810758-the-war-for-oil-that-backfired/
Crude opens in a short while after the long Easter weekend closing.
I would guess it will be HIGHER! Although it closed double digits higher last Thursday after Donald Trump's speech on Wednesday evening and there could have already been an enormous amount of risk premium dialed into that price.
We're up ANOTHER $3 on top of Thursday's huge spike up which was launched from a high level to begin with.
Currently at $114. .......make that $115!
The free source that I use for charting here hasn't been able to accurately graph these extreme highs.
Sadly, this is actually in control of the crude market right now.
Volatility supreme! Crude now up 50 cents as of 8pm ct.
I believe crude tops out this week--just dont know how high, 116-118, but where/when!
Thanks, tjc!
I can't imagine how pricey that options are right now!
Crude is unchanged right now.
I think you're right on your price prediction too. At some point this will end and crude will collapse lower. There is so much uncertainty and risk that crude has $XX dollars of risk premium in it. A huge chunk of that will come out when news of a legit agreement is made.
Legit news on that will probably drop us XX dollars in minutes(like it did earlier in March but we came back because it ended up not being what the market thought it was).
It should take months to fully recover the lost crude from the war but the FUTURES markets will dial that in long before it happens.
But we can't rule out the potential of it getting even worse before that happens. What might the potential surprises be?
Iran has been decimated and their only trump card/power is the control of the Strait of Hormuz. I doubt Donald Trump's threats to decimate them even more are going to result in them giving up the one powerful item where they have him by the balls and the one thing that gives them strong negotiating power. On the other hand, why would they even trust anything in the negotiations without something with substance NOT just Donald Trump's constantly flip flopping words and broken promises.
Maybe that means that the US and Israel have to withdraw before they trust them? I don't know.
The worst thing that could happen is for Donald Trump to carry thru with his threats of horrible war crimes against innocent people. That would really damage the US/Israel moral high ground position. But if he doesn't do anything for the umpteenth time after threatening, that's bad on him too.
We could go in with boots on the ground to open the Strait of Hormuz but that might result in at least hundreds of dead US soldiers.
None of the choices are good. I think what is most likely to happen is that Donald Trump will be forced to capitulate and cut a huge deal for Iran. But he will lie about the actual terms of the deal and declare that he ended another war and saved the Middle East, the United States and the World and that he and Netanyahu are war heros for doing it(like he did last Summer after they bombed Iran and it made the Middle East a safer place-especially from Iran's nukes).
Then, Netanyahu will come out with another praising video(s) of Donald Trump to pay him off in the most important currency for Donald Trump......adulation. Netanyahu is likely to have other things in his bag of tricks to use this extremely effective method.
The problem is that Iran is not going to agree to any deals that don't protect them from Israel/Trump turning around and doing this every time they want to make up threats, like they did this time.
The market is NOT expecting the Strait of Hormuz to open this week!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
My wild guess is that this could be close to or at the top. Donald Trump will find a way to back out and/or change the time line for the 5th time.
That's my WILD GUESS. Nobody can predict what Donald Trump might do later today or even next hour, not even Donald Trump some of the time.
Regardless, the world can't unsee what it just witnessed with Donald Trump's words and leadership.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
As speculated in the previous post, TACO Trump changed his deadline for the 6th time. Now, another 2 weeks!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Re: Re: Re: Re: Iran War 3/25/26+ (cont. from 3/8-25/26 thread)
By metmike - April 7, 2026 6:41 p.m.
++++++++
His threats this morning to Iran, did not result in Iran's leaders getting scared and negotiating. It had the opposite impact. This was just the mouth of the most powerful man, unfit for office causing market chaos. We could have negotiated a cease fire at any time for the past few weeks without President Trump's lunatic comments.
Interestingly, it's Donald Trump that has agreed to consider almost all of Iran's demands and he has agreed to letting Iran maintain control of the strait when they didn't have control of it before the war! WOW!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Iran still has control of the strait and has Donald Trump by the balls because if Trump/Netanyahu resume the attacks, they close the strait. If they behave.....they let ships go thru.
Still lots of uncertainties and questions!
As mentioned previously, Iran has Donald Trump by the balls and it was Donald Trump begging for a deal and so he made a HORRIBLE deal compared to what we had before this unjustified war because of his desperation to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Hegseth claims this morning that Donald Trump "showed mercy" at the last minute with this deal
That's a blatant lie!!!
Donald Trump screwed the world over because of his desperation and the unintended consequences of his ill planned out war. Now they all have to pay fees to Iran for the oil to pass thru the Strait of Hormuz.
++++++++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
11am: The Trump deal: Iran will have control over the Strait of Hormuz that it didn’t have before the war and charge $1 for every barrel of oil that passes thru which will equate to around $7 Billion for Iran/year.
The art of the deal
Iran imposes $1 per barrel crypto tolls on Hormuz tankers during ceasefire
Yes, Mike, to all that.
Pretty amazing that the US could lose a war in 40 days.
There was never anything to gain, but to lose the 200 year old principle of free navigation goes beyond what seemed possible.
The market seems to think this ceasefire will hold and lead to an end, but as I've said all along, nobody knows.
To add Iran's update, which seems to be asking the US to rein in Israel:
Thanks, patrick!
As mentioned yesterday evening, if we violate the terms of the peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. It's closed already
It took Israel just hours to violate. Not just violate but ramp up their attacks to new highs to snub President Trump's agreement. Not even our 1 ally respected Donald Trump's agreement!
Netanyahu lavishes Trump with over the top adulation to control him but:
1. Sabotaged his progressing peace talks in June 2025
2. Sabotaged his successful peace agreement to reduce the enriched uranium at the end of Feb 2026 with this war.
3. Violated this new cease fire IMMEDIATELY after it went into effect.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5822104-iran-strait-of-hormuz-closure-ceasefire/
Israel committing genocide in Lebanon
Started by metmike - April 7, 2026, 11:58 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119319/
+++++++++++++
What does this tell you about who is in control of the Strait of Hormuz here?
Less than a day after Donald Trump's deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz or have their civilization completely wiped out expired..........the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED!!!
Again, Donald Trump's lunatic threat signaled to Iran how desperate, weak and frustrated Donald Trump was...........besides being a blatant display of his diseased brain which, in addition is being attacked by progressive dementia.
Iran OWNED Donald Trump with this cease fire agreement!!!!
And the US version, which basically says Shuddup!
Drawing a trendline in a market trading pure NEWS is not that useful, however, I can't resist because of how my mind works from decades of looking at charts. My mind sees the lines before I draw them. I often have to pick out just the ones that are the most important to draw and present here.
With that in mind, there just happens to be an uptrend below that could hold as long as Israel refuses to abide by the ceasefire between desperate Donald Trump and Iran that demands they stop the bombing/genocide in Lebanon.
Regardless, it couldn't be more clear that Iran still has total control of the Strait of Hormuz and is calling the shots. ....because it's closed again today and NOT because Iran violated the agreement(which is what Fox is telling their MAGA viewers).
So is Donald Trump going to threaten to end civilization in Iran again to get it open again
That was the most embarrassing moment for the US in my lifetime!!!(and the top 10 have all happened during Donald Trump's 2nd term)
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
I've been watching Fox News this afternoon. OMG!!!!! Their lies keep getting bigger and BIGGER to steal more and more intelligence to maintain the brainwash. They blame people telling the truth for having TDS.
Sorry MAGA readers. This is a profoundly important TRUTH. You can deny it but I won't completely hide it from the trading forum where it's caused MASSIVE CHAOS to the markets that we trade. And much worse, to our entire dang world.
Make no mistake Donald Trump caused this. Those that adulate, support and enable him, instead of standing up for the truth are accessories to what continually sustains him.
++++++++++++
This message below is not trade related but it's also MUCH more important than trading, to our world and to us as human beings:
Hate(and love)
13 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 17, 2023, 4:15 p.m.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Netanyahu is intentionally sabotaging the cease fire agreement. Iran still has Donald Trump by the balls.
Re: Re: Iran war 4-8-26-The Art of the Deal
By metmike - April 9, 2026, 8:51 a.m.
Re: Re: Re: Iran war 4-8-26-The Art of the Deal
By metmike - April 9, 2026, 9:21 a.m.
I started a new thread to have the NTR discussion that mcfarm wanted to have in this thread.
Please go here if you're interested in reading that:
The N word
Started by metmike - April 9, 2026, 3:04 p.m
The lines don't mean much as this market is trading news, even though it looks like it's topped.
Israel is in the drivers seat. Do they want to continue to intentionally sabotage Donald Trump's agreement with Iran by attacking Lebanon?
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Regardless, the oil market is in a quagmire of Donald Trump's creation from his putting ISRAEL FIRST to please Bibi Netanyahu. His scary words have signaled profound weakness and empowered Iran which has him by the balls.
We now have the detailed, authentic evidence of what I insisted from the get go about how we got into this war.
How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
SPECULATIVE 'guess". BUY very ugly Monday, perhaps below 85. Represents half cycle daily low. Rally will NOT take out recent highs. Then sell again.
(Perhaps Vance says early Sunday things going 'ok', Iran does their normal, introduce new bs, or refuse to negotiate until WE pay reparations or some other non starter, our President is impatient, escalation. (MetMike, not to worry, crude in 60s in June/July)
TRADE--dont be judgmental.
Thanks, tjc,
I did a long speculative analysis here:
: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 12, 2026, 8:55 a.m.
But suddenly, all that means nothing when Donald Trump announces this which would seem to be another decision to make things even worse:
Trump threatens Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Iran ceasefire talks end without agreement
$18.20 more to fill up our gas tanks here in Evansville, IN compared to 6 weeks ago!
By metmike - April 12, 2026, 2:11 p.m.
Gap higher open!
We did gap higher.
Looks like we’re almost +$8 now but im at the park with our grandson Cyrus.
Cyrus is an excellent name.
Nobody could have looked at the clown show we sent to negotiate with Iran and have expected anything but noise, so +8.09 & rising should have been free money on the table.
Thanks, Patrick!
The NEWS is clearly driving this market ENTIRELY right now!
However, I'm going to offer 1 potential technical formation possibility IF the news suddenly turns bearish here.
A head and shoulders top with an upward tilted neckline! The stock market, which has been trading inversely to the crude oil has solidly confirmed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, so this makes a head and shoulders pattern, with an upsloping neckline(from the especially bullish support zone) the most likely scenario for the crude oil.
However, unlike the stock market that is trading INDEPENDENT of the NEWS now, the crude oil market can't escape the profoundly powerful impacts on supply from NEWS about the Strait of Hormuz and war in Iran.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_and_shoulders_%28chart_pattern%29
Iran’s nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz are main areas of disagreement. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon will hold their first direct talks in 40 years.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/14/world/live-news/iran-war-blockade-us-trump
Iran just announced that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open which spiked crude well below the neckline of the newly drawn head and shoulders pattern discussed earlier this week, that was tested overnight!
One could make a case for drawing the neckline 1 level of support lower but chart analysis is sometimes more of an art vs science(eye of the beholder).
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
And not only is the Strait completely closed, Iran attacked a tanker.
There's a ridiculous expectations loop : Everyone knows that nothing Trump says means anything, but everyone expects the market to flumph whenever he announces peace or war, so it does.
In this case, there may have been a bit of reality in the Lebanon ceasefire, but there was enough nonsense in the rest that it just annoyed the Iranians.
You are exactly right, Patrick!
Very seriously:
1. Iran, the world's biggest state sponsoring terrorist/evil regime is by a Grand Canyon wide margin more credible source for information than Donald Trump.
2. If one bet on the opposite of what Donald Trump said, they would win the bet 9 out of 10 times.
Meteorologist Donald Trump, forecasting the weather:
Re: Iran War 3/25/26+ (cont. from 3/8-25/26 thread)
By metmike - March 28, 2026, 10:55 p.m.
Iran fires on at least two ships near Oman after re-closing Strait of Hormuz — as Trump warns Tehran against ‘blackmail’
++++++++++++++
Donald Trump, in recent days insists that this unjustifiable war was all about keeping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. This is another huge lie!!!!! This is the AUTHENTIC TRUTH.
By metmike - April 13, 2026, 1:48 a.m.
++++++++++++++++
Anyways, how much higher do you think that crude oil will open on Sunday Night? +$10???? This is still about news and of course the rich person's Ponzi Scheme, the stock market made new highs, which is more important to Donald Trump than everything else, will be interpreted by his diseased brain as him being on the exact right path!!! Very seriously!!!
Nice Bloomberg piece yesterday about physical vs future price - bsky gift link at https://bsky.app/profile/70sbachchan.bsky.social/post/3mjs3ntll322f
Basic, but with detailed numbers
This is one of the most informative articles ever on crude here, patrick! !
When back on my computer, I’ll post an article that discusses the 6,000 items that are made with petroleum. Many of them are products that we use every day.
The cost of all of them will go up from the increase in crude oil.
With Over 6000 products and counting, petroleum continues to be a crucial requirement for all consumers.
https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-petroleum/
A U.S 42-gallon barrel of crude oil yields about 45 gallons of petroleum products in U.S. refineries because of refinery processing gain. This increase in volume is similar to what happens to popcorn when it is popped.
++++++++++++
Look at just the list of 144 items from this link!!! I'm trying to keep this page short because the thread is getting so long and I should start a new one.
3pm: An Iranian Cargo Ship trying to pass thru the US blockade(of Iran's ships) was attacked by the US Navy. There's another +$x to the open tonight. We have to open +$9 from the close for it to be a gap higher from the Friday because of the huge drop on Friday from the highs.
The high on Friday was $94.04? The last price was $85.57.
Every extra day with this war costs $x more billions of dollars to the US. Multiply that by all the countries around the world, impacting their economies.
Front month, May expires on Tuesday and this environment is favorable for a massive spike higher. Not a prediction, just the underlying conditions that make it very possible.
The amount of open interest left in May crude is very small, like 59K and liquidating fast(short squeeze??). Most traders will be trading the June contract this week, with 325K in open interest.
Looks like the higher open will NOT be close to a gap higher.
I'll guess $5 higher on the open with seconds to go based on bids/offers.
5:02: That's about where we opened and we spike to around $7, now in the middle.
Nice guess, Mike!
I just started a new crude oil thread:
:max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/dotdash_Final_Head_And_Shoulders_Pattern_Sep_2020-01-4c225a762427464699e42461088c1e86.jpg)