Please continue the crude oil discussion here.
Thanks very much, Larry! Previous thread below:
3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
71 responses |
Started by metmike - March 12, 2026, 11:26 a.m.
I copied the last few posts of the previous thread to make sure that patrick's posts are read.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By patrick - April 18, 2026, 11:32 a.m.
And not only is the Strait completely closed, Iran attacked a tanker.
There's a ridiculous expectations loop : Everyone knows that nothing Trump says means anything, but everyone expects the market to flumph whenever he announces peace or war, so it does.
In this case, there may have been a bit of reality in the Lebanon ceasefire, but there was enough nonsense in the rest that it just annoyed the Iranians.
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By metmike - April 18, 2026, 12:11 p.m.
You are exactly right, Patrick!
Very seriously:
1. Iran, the world's biggest state sponsoring terrorist/evil regime is by a Grand Canyon wide margin more credible source for information than Donald Trump.
2. If one bet on the opposite of what Donald Trump said, they would win the bet 9 out of 10 times.
Meteorologist Donald Trump, forecasting the weather:
Re: Iran War 3/25/26+ (cont. from 3/8-25/26 thread)
By metmike - March 28, 2026, 10:55 p.m.
Iran fires on at least two ships near Oman after re-closing Strait of Hormuz — as Trump warns Tehran against ‘blackmail’
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Donald Trump, in recent days insists that this unjustifiable war was all about keeping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. This is another huge lie!!!!! This is the AUTHENTIC TRUTH.
By metmike - April 13, 2026, 1:48 a.m.
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Anyways, how much higher do you think that crude oil will open on Sunday Night? +$10???? This is still about news and of course the rich person's Ponzi Scheme, the stock market made new highs, which is more important to Donald Trump than everything else, will be interpreted by his diseased brain as him being on the exact right path!!! Very seriously!!!
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Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By patrick - April 19, 2026, 11:35 a.m.
Nice Bloomberg piece yesterday about physical vs future price - bsky gift link at https://bsky.app/profile/70sbachchan.bsky.social/post/3mjs3ntll322f
Basic, but with detailed numbers
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Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - April 19, 2026, 12:05 p.m.
This is one of the most informative articles ever on crude here, patrick! !
When back on my computer, I’ll post an article that discusses the 6,000 items that are made with petroleum. Many of them are products that we use every day.
The cost of all of them will go up from the increase in crude oil.
With Over 6000 products and counting, petroleum continues to be a crucial requirement for all consumers.
https://www.ranken-energy.com/index.php/products-made-from-petroleum/
A U.S 42-gallon barrel of crude oil yields about 45 gallons of petroleum products in U.S. refineries because of refinery processing gain. This increase in volume is similar to what happens to popcorn when it is popped.
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3pm: An Iranian Cargo Ship trying to pass thru the US blockade(of Iran's ships) was attacked by the US Navy. There's another +$x to the open tonight. We have to open +$9 from the close for it to be a gap higher from the Friday because of the huge drop on Friday from the highs.
The high on Friday was $94.04? The last price was $85.57.
Every extra day with this war costs $x more billions of dollars to the US. Multiply that by all the countries around the world, impacting their economies.
Front month, May expires on Tuesday and this environment is favorable for a massive spike higher. Not a prediction, just the underlying conditions that make it very possible.
The amount of open interest left in May crude is very small, like 59K and liquidating fast(short squeeze??). Most traders will be trading the June contract this week, with 325K in open interest.
Looks like the higher open will NOT be close to a gap higher.
This graph below is updated daily without me doing anything.
Gas prices peaked last week!
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
This source doesn't always have prices graphed accurately but it's free and gives us a good understanding.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 month: Highs are in? Downtrend? Is this some sort of wedge with support drawn? This market is no longer trading historical fundamentals. NEWS dominates. Even after the war is over, it will take many, MANY month to restore the balance that previously existed.
2. 1 year: Small red line where we broke out to the upside after the unprovoked, unjustified war started at the end of February. Even if the war ended this week, crude oil prices may not get back to that level until 2027.
3. 10 years: Historic COVID low in 2020. Huge spike up that peaked just after the war in Ukraine started in 2022. Steady, solid downtrend in 2024/5 to early 2026, until Bibi Netanyahu convinced Donald Trump to betray America and attack Iran with him at the end of February for Israel. Upside break out from that NEWS.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
How did we get here?
I've refrained from posting my view of Crude. Don't trade it BUT, because it affects the price of gas, I monitor.
This chart (in my humble opinion) answers..
Trade well guys
Thanks very much, gedigan!!
Wonderful charts too!
So what does your chart tell you will happen next???
I continue to contend that the unpredictable mouth and actions of 1 man(actually 2 because Donald Trump is Bibi Netanyahu's puppet) along with the response from Iran, are mostly responsible for all of this while totally respecting the value of and loving chart analysis for 3.5 decades(I hand plotted charts for 2 dozen markets every day after the close in the 1990s FOR FUN!).
I also see that you mentioned Wyckoff's "Composite Man" which is another wonderful realm that we see in sync on.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Trump's Influence on Markets/Economy
By metmike - Dec. 11, 2025, 10:48 a.m.
Sometimes to often, chart analysis is more of an art than a science. Where to draw down/up trends. Where to draw lines of support/resistance. What time frames to use and so on.
For instance, the analysis below suggests an upside breakout from a wedge pattern at the apex for a 1 month time frame. Downward spikes below the support/base that were fake downside break outs.
Or, I could have drawn a line(s) of resistance above this to suggest we need to get back above 95 if I wanted to be see a less bullish view.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Chart patterns are always hindsight. They only tell us what has already happened. For sure they can also be predictive (the trend is your friend for instance).
Like gedigan mentioned, Wyckoff's Composite Man tells us what the entire market, with every trader in it WAS thinking and how they are acting at every point in time in the past.
It doesn't tell us what they WILL do at future prices or future time frames.
The best way to make money is to be SMARTER than the Composite Man.
This is extremely tough to do when the Composite Man is dominated by the most informed traders with access to the most powerful information.
This is the only reason that I trade only sensitive weather markets at certain times of year based entirely on being an atmospheric scientist with access to the latest weather.
In the 1990s, before the internet, when I had a satellite dish on my roof getting the latest weather data, it was like taking candy from a baby. Now, there are huge traders that use meteorologist with in house models that beat me!
Anyways, in this particular market there have been signs of people with inside information about Trump announcements that front ran it with positions in the crude market.
I've discussed the same thing on suspected corruption by the USDA with their months data. To believe these information gatekeepers are little Mother Teresa's is pretty naive!!!
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Anyways, if I wanted to be bearish crude, I could draw these lines of resistance on the same price chart and interpret this as another bear flag(since the highs early this month) that is only violated if we get above the highs of the previous bear flag, for instance.
So there is actually a legit case to be made for the bulls AND the bears here.
And certainly its a zero sum game. Every contract features a person who is long and another one who is short at that price.
Prices only go up when selling at the current price is exhausted from buyers that outnumber the sellers. To satiate the additional buying and match it with sellers, the market MUST GO to a higher price to uncover NEW/FRESH sellers. If those sellers/offers are also used up, the price needs to keep going higher and higher to match the buying demand with the sellers(pulling back).
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This caused crude to drop from $92 to $88 in a few minutes and now we're at around $90.
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If you know the authentic facts, listening to his lunatic rant here tells us his mind is completely gone. He can't even understand how absurd he sounds and how bad he makes his own decision making look by telling everybody suffering with gas prices at +$1 because he was caught having no clue about what everybody else knew that Iran would do, that he actually thought that gas prices would be $2 BUT STILL ordered an unprovoked, unjustified attack on a country that our own Intelligence department testified under oath was showing ZERO signs of developing nuclear weapons of any kind since June 2025.
Nobody believes that he thought those things!
PLeeeease stop these lies about this war saving the world from Iran's nuclear weapons!!!!
Donald Trump did it because his diseased brain craves adulation from the diabolical leader of Israel!
How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war
Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
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For those that don't like politics on the trading forum, I agree. But this is an analysis for exactly why crude oil is trading where it is by an objective, independent scientist and commodities trader.
Moving forward, what should we expect?
More uncertainty and chaos as long as a pathologically thinking, madman is making the most important decisions which change suddenly from one day until the next one and his main objective is conquest, to make Donald Trump look great while generating the maximum amount of adulation from MAGA sources, rich/powerful people/entities and Israel(that understands how to manipulate his diseased brain for their agenda).
This is messing up all the markets that we would like to trade indirectly but it's the crude and stock market with the biggest impact and Donald Trump has made it clear that his #1 priority is the rich people's Ponzi Scheme, the stock market.
The saddest thing of all right now is that Iran has Donald Trump and every American by the balls right now thanks to an unqualified person at the helm.
Every time we fill up our gas tank and pay $15 more............it's the result of Iran defending itself against the unjustified attack from Donald Trump. This is really hurting poor Americans but we are just 1 country and WE DID IT TO OURSELVES!
There are 200 other countries in the world and the price of energy is the life blood to their economies. The huge price hike is causing FOOD INFLATION. Causing fertilizer prices to soar higher.
The current, sudden supply crisis/shock is the worst in the long history of crude oil, even going back to the 1970's when it was out of our control(OPEC).
This was entirely self inflicted by the most powerful man in the world who leads our country, who now is telling us that he thought is would be much, MUCH worse than this but did it anyways.
metmike,
You can beat the system. Remember the 2021 Game Stop short squeeze? Retail traders (in the short term) forced Hedge Funds (who were over leveraged) to scramble for more capital. The system is and will always be rigged. Robinhood shut down all trading for a day, allowing time for them to secure more capital. It can be done. If you or I receive a margin call, will they reciprocate suspend trading, allowing you time to do the same? I think not!
The trick to retail trading isn't to beat the boogieman, our job is to ride their coattails. Nothing more!
Sounds simple but not so easy. Most fail..
The trick to retail trading isn't to beat the boogieman, our job is to ride their coattails. Nothing more!
Thanks, gedigan!
I believe that and that people like you do it.
My system, which I don't necessarily advise to others, trading weather is based on beating them by recognizing weather patterns NOT dialed into the Composite Man's thinking.........YET.
In the Winter, for instance that means being one of the first ones to buy when the forecast is just showing initial signs of the weather pattern changing to much colder and the CM is still trading the older, milder weather forecasts.
But I get what you're saying. The CM's behavior patterns can be diagnosed from price charts, which can be used for predictability.
The stock market lows earlier this month, for instance. After a huge move down this year, REALLY bad news could no longer make the market go lower.
Re: Re: Re: the nasdaq (and others too) just about there
By metmike - April 2, 2026, 12:12 p.m
Mike posted:
——-
Hey Mike,
I don’t think Trump believes that. I think he’s saying that so he can look at actual crude and stock market prices and then say that the way he has run the war has been fantastic or something like that.
Thanks, Larry!
That was my point exactly. No way that Trump believes that but he wants people to think that for the rationale that you mentioned and his warped brain that lacks the cognitive power of deduction and critical thinking is unable to comprehend what his statement means to the mindset of the person making that initial decision with those assumptions.
So not only does it tell us that his ability to think critically is gone, it makes his blatant lies look completely buffoonish.
Iran is playing him. They want to drag this thing out to extend the laughing stocks time acting like a buffoon.
Threatening the end of civilization in Iran.
Getting into Jesus and the Gospels battles with .............the global Gospel authority(pope).
His unforced errors and self inflicted damage to himself, his party and his causes is like no other.
Iran just wants to keep him on this stage...........where he is making more enemies, attacking NATO, his own allies. Self destructing.
Here ya go:
Donald Trump's diseased brain thinks that his lunatic threats, like to wipe out civilization is scaring Iran using his pathological bully thinking.
Its sooooo opposite of that. Iran is baiting him. They WANT him to keep making threats just like that. They are willing to accept the potential risk of him carrying that out.
They have been totally obliterated on the battle field and have nothing else but:
1. Control of the strait of Hormuz and
2. Are decimating the most powerful man in the world, using that to play mind games with a man who's mind has lost the ability to process information needed to compete with them on this level. They OWN Donald Trump/have him by the balls in a realm that matters to him(the price of crude/gas) at home. Iranians absolutely know what the price of gas is doing to Donald Trump at home.............wrecking him and his party even more.
The bottom line is that we broke out to the upside because of this war and are trading at an entirely new, MUCH higher level now of close to $30/barrel higher than before entirely from this unprovoked war.
The entire planet is being punished. Jet fuel, diesel for truck transportation, food prices. Every day is another day of SEVERE punishment, entirely because of Donald Trump's inability to understand the consequences of his actions.
No quick end is Iran WINNING this part of the war by a bigger margin every day. It will take until at least 2027, just to get back to where we were.
It's been OVER 7 weeks now with Donald Trump, now telling us how short this war is compared to WW1, WW2, the Vietnam war, the Afghanistan wars.
And also telling us that if he was president then, the Vietnam war would have ended much sooner.
While Donald Trump and Fox news give us a Twilight Zone nonsense interpretation.
NOBODY cares about that. We want THIS to end.
The charts below don't lie!!!!
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
Thanks for the personal story, gedigan! As you requested, I deleted it after reading, as I assume that you are concerned with personal consequences from rich and powerful people that have more control than most people realize or some other reason that I respect.
One only has to look at the rich people's Ponzi Scheme(stock market) to appreciate the control these people have.
April 21, 2026
The global energy crisis sparked by the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran is the worst on record, International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol told France Inter radio on April 21.
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
0. 10 years- 2020-COVIID lows. 2022-Ukraine war highs. 2022/2023/2024/25 downtrend. Last 2 months: Netanyahu/Trump, Iran war historic global energy crisis.
1. 1 year: previous downtrend. Huge spike up from unjustified, unprovoked war. Prices trading $35 higher than before the war.
2. 1 month: Breaking out to the upside from a descending wedge. The NEWS will continue to determine what comes next but the market is telling us the latest news about the historic global energy crisis is BAD news.
3. 1 week: Making new highs for the week which means the Composite Man sees BAD news when it comes to anticipating Donald Trump desperate flailing, being completely unable to manage his catastrophically bad decision making skills because of his diseased brain!
Donald Trump claims that he has all the time in the world and is in complete control.
The world's worst energy crisis in history. #1 WORST energy crisis! not #2 globally tells us a different story.
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Keep in mind that it will take many, MANY months to recover from this and every single day that it isn’t fixed is another day of damage as the rate of damage/day increases with time!
Donald Trump claiming that he has all the time in the world is more evidence of his complete inability to comprehend even the most basic understanding of the dynamics.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5847263-trump-jones-act-fuel-prices-iran-war/
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday found that 77 percent of U.S. voters said that Trump bears at least some responsibility for the hike in gas prices.
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The quote from the article about what people think tells us a great deal.
That 23% of people would actually think that Donald Trump is not responsible in any way for higher gas prices is indisputable proof that those 23% are part of this cult, with captured brains below:
Many of them likely go to Fox in the evenings to get their intelligence stolen and cult belief system reinforced with manufactured realities. The number is large enough to make it extremely profitable for Fox to capture the robust ratings for massive profits.
USING the MAGA brainwash to enrich themselves.
This continues to positively reinforce the pathological thinking of Donald Trump's diseased brain and sustain this historical energy crisis for longer and longer.
This would appear to be an NTR post to some but its an analysis that includes what drives the mentality of the most powerful man in the world who was manipulated by Bibi Netanyahu to attack Iran which is 100% responsible for the price of crude to be +$35 higher than before the unprovoked totally unjustified attack.
Chaotic news coming from Donald Trump's mouth has been the main driver for crude oil prices since the attack.
Crude will likely open higher. Not a gap but maybe +$2 at the most???
5:02: We opened more than $1 higher, managed to trade just above +$2 and are closer to those highs.
It's all about NEWS about the Hormuz straight which remains closed thanks to the unjustified attack/war on Iran and Donald Trump having no clue this would happen and no clue about how to get the oil flowing again.
Here's some of the latest on the Iran war:
Iran War 4/24/26+
Started by WxFollower - April 24, 2026, 9:32 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119764/
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Any source that tells you this was all about nuclear weapons is either blatantly lying or ignorant of the authentic facts/truth.
We need to get the oil flowing again ASAP to start recovering from the worst global energy crisis in human history. Lying about how we got here so the entities responsible don't have to be held accountable is NOT helping.
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
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How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war
Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
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Allied Countries helping Trump
Started by metmike - March 18, 2026, 7:57 p.m.
With Donald Trump continuing to insist that he has all the cards, his mouth continues to be his(and the world's) worst enemy.
Having all the cards means that he is control. If that’s the case, then he’s admitting to being the person solely responsible for the worst global energy crisis in history.
This is true of course but what is not true is that he had a clue that this would happen and his current solution is making it worse every day. Are we to believe that’s part of his plan?
To wreck all the global economies, including the US economy?
In a card game, somebody with all the cards WINS MONEY. This is nothing but mounting losses!
Updated graphs when back on my computer.
Note: The current front month is June crude. We are on the verge of breaking out to the upside to new highs for just this contract. The graphs below are for the front months only, that roll over each month. The spike high a month ago, for instance was the May crude price at the time.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week: Strong uptrend/gains of +$10+ as the worst global energy crisis continues to worsen. Every day at these levels is brutal for ALL global economies and it will take many months to recover, not completely until 2027.
2. 1 year: Downtrend last year ended ahead of the unjustified, unprovoked attack on Iran. Prices now are around $40+ higher than when we started 2026. Most of it because of The Strait of Hormuz being closed.
3. 10 years: Historical low in 2020 from COVID crushing global demand, resulting in a supply glut with ships loaded with crude and nowhere to go. Spike high from Ukraine war. Prices already high before that. Down trend 2022/23/24/25. Spike higher from the Strait of Hormuz being closed. +$40+ since early 2026 and still rising!!!
NEWS will cause the next spike up or down!!!
The UAE is leaving OPEC. Whether this is about their having a port west of Hormuz or the members of OPEC lobbing missiles at each other all over the place, I don't know. It doesn't seem to have moved the market today, but could it be the first step in the end of OPEC?
Thanks, patrick. That is huge, potentially bearish news longer term.
Crude being sharply higher today, DESPITE that bearish news tells us that crude is trading mostly on the Strait of Hormuz being closed and the worst global energy crisis in history with the man who has all the cards, that caused it, not having any good solutions to fix it as it worsens each day and punishes every country in the world.
OPEC is losing a major member.
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Latest on the war causing the worst global energy crisis in history:
Front month, June crude is breaking out to the upside with life of contract highs for the JUNE contract as the worst global energy crisis in history worsens.
Crude prices are +$45/barrel higher because of Donald Trumps unjustified, unprovoked war that betrayed Iran, who had agreed with his demands in February to reduce uranium stockpiles but instead, Donald Trump followed Netanyahu, with no clear objective, no coherent strategy and completely being blindsided to the obvious Iran's defense tactic of closing the Strait of Hormuz with no idea how to keep it open.
The US has the strongest military in the world but the weakest leaders (Trump and Hegseth), the top guy with a diseased brain and his Secretary of WAR, appointed as a puppet pledging allegiance and adulating Donald Trump.
Anybody with brains and common sense that give, smart alternative options..........are replaced with new, dumber minions swearing allegiance to Trump.
At some point soon, this will end with news that spikes us much lower in minutes. However there has been tremendous PERMANENT damage done to all the world's economies. Cheap, reliable and abundant crude oil is the life blood to all the global economies. It will take until 2027 to restore the lost supplies/inventories(maybe later to build the world's SPRs back up) and get prices back down to where they were headed BEFORE the war.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119764/
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
January 2027 crude is trading just below $80 and also close to breaking out to the upside. Trading around +$20 higher than earlier this year. So the market, looking ahead to 2027 is NOT seeing us dropping back down to pre Iran war levels for awhile.
That might be the earliest time frame to get back down there but it could come EARLIER from a severe global recession that's possible if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened soon. Probably a modest GLOBAL recession is inevitable already.
10am: Gas prices at the pump are back to making new highs.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
Crude went to new highs a few minutes ago. The weekly oil EIA was supposedly released 25 minutes ago and evidently wasn’t bearish based on the knee jerk modestly higher just after release.
Mike, Patrick or others, did you see the report? If so, how was it?
Great post, Larry!
i forgot about those and will have them when back on my computer.
Looks like crude and gas were around -6 million which was a BIGGER drawdown that predicted. HO was -4.5 mb which was also more bullish than pre report estimates.
We‘ll also want to see where the SPR oil is at.
Net exports were 6.667 MMBPD
Thanks very much, Patrick!
Holy cow, last June? crude trade was way up at ~$108.50, up ~$8.50/day, not good unless you own/work for an oil co or own stock in one.
Big oil and gas in the United States has doubled their profits since the war started.
The military industrial complex’s-defense industry is making many billions more. Politicians are pocketing more lobby bribe money.
War is big business for those rich and powerful people!
Sanctions on Russias oil were lifted and on top of that, Russia is getting almost twice the money for their oil as they did before.
The rest of,us pay the price.
Much of the world is running out of oil and they all know who to blame.
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This is a GLOBAL market as we can see from the data, the US has been exporting record amounts of gas and oil which will be drawing down our supplies. Because the US produces most of our own oil, US supplies are not threatened. However, US CONSUMERS will continue to see the impact of global PRICES on our prices.
How much of the global SPR oil has been used up? If this continues for another month, I predict with 99.9% confidence that much of the world we be in a worsening recession, totally caused by the worst global energy crisis in history.
Just do the math and apply it to economic principles. It's unavoidable if this situation isn't resolved by Memorial Day.
Sadly, this war was not only avoidable but it was and still is totally unjustified and was totally unprovoked, against International Laws, against the US Constitution and just flat out the wrong thing to do morally.
The Mid-April SPR Cliff and the Most Consequential OPEC Meeting in History
https://houseofsaud.com/spr-cliff-opec-april-5-meeting-oil-crisis/
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metmike: While the exact numbers and time frames in this article were speculative and off a bit, the points are rock solid and UNAVOIDABLE based on math and production/supply realities. The current crisis will become increasingly catastrophic when the global SPR runs out. Every developed country in the world's economic lifeblood is it's access to abundant fossil fuels, especially petroleum products/crude.
The amount of cutting back of demand needed in a month to balance with supply, along with record high prices will KILL economic growth.
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April 20, 2026
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67504
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Today, Donald Trump insisted that everything is going exactly according to plan!
Explore government actions to conserve energy and support consumers in response to the energy market impacts of the conflict in the Middle East
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker
The conflict in the Middle East has triggered an unprecedented disruption to global fuel markets, tightening supply and placing significant pressure on consumers and economies worldwide. In response, the IEA has launched its largest ever release of emergency oil stocks and also published a menu of demand-side measures that governments, businesses and households can take to shelter consumers from oil price pressures and support energy security.
The IEA is tracking policy measures adopted by countries in response to the unfolding energy crisis through this dedicated tracker. The two tables below provide up-to-date overviews of actions being implemented to conserve energy and support consumers around the world. The IEA will continue to monitor developments closely and update this tracker on a regular basis as new measures are announced and the situation evolves.
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-trump-blockade-strait-of-hormuz-lebanon-13509565
While Iran may have to cut its oil production (see previous post), the US is planning to do the opposite.
The Trump administration has said it is considering measures to increase its output.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters: "We've been in constant communication with the oil companies and have been considering measures that we could take here in the US to increase US production really soon.
"There are things, regulations that are holding up, like how quickly stuff could come through… and we're studying those, how we can change those, and we've been talking to oil companies about that.”
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Seriously????
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Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
Looks like we will open lower. Maybe near the lows on Friday. Anything less than that is a gap lower.
5:05pm We opened right at the lows, down around $3 and traded a few ticks below them but have bounced up a bit instead of continuing lower, down around $2.
NEWS will dominate. The latest news from from the most unreliable source on the planet that lies 95% of the time is that the US will be escorting ships thru the Strait of Hormuz.
If the market really believed that, we would be -$10+ right now.
One question would be...........why didn't we start doing that over a month ago?
I think both Iran and the US want to end the war badly but both still want to punish the other side too much to agree to end it!
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The price of gas is decimating votes for the Rs in November. You can talk and promise and spin all you want but what people remember the most is the extra $20 bucks they pay every time they fill up their gas tanks!
This is also going to determine how bad the increasingly likely upcoming recession will be.
You don't crush people's disposable income for months and not expect the principles of economics and math to suddenly vanish based on wishful thinking!
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5:20pm: Now we're down to just -$1. The market is shrugging off Donald Trump's latest jawboning to try to make the market go lower.
7pm: Crude continued to climb, now back to unch, +$3 from the open/low.
This charting source has changed how they graph, now shading/coloring in the area below lines in blue.
1. 1 day: Note the open and low last night, after Donald Trump made bearish remarks Sunday afternoon about the US escorting ships thru the Strait of Hormuz. We spike much higher overnight on reports of shots fired between the US and Iran in the Strait.
2. 1 month: Big drop during the 1st half of April from expectations of a resolution. Big move up since then from expectations of no end in sight.
3. 1 year: Steady downtrend last year that ended in january. Spike up after Donald Trump started the unjustified war to please Bibi Netanyahu. Current prices more than $40 higher than they were earlier this year.
4. 10 years: COVID lows in 2020. Ukraine war highs in early 2022. Very powerful downtrend after that thru 2023/24/25. Spike up from the war with current prices around $45 higher than they were earlier this year.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
NEWS will continue to determine the next knee jerk reaction up or down.
The person who insists that "everything is working out according to plan" has no idea of how to resolve this.
At some point, it will end:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis
The 1979 oil crisis, sometimes referred to as the second oil crisis (in reference to the 1973 oil crisis), refers to the drop in oil production in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution that led to an energy crisis in 1979. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four percent,[2] the oil markets' reaction raised the price of crude oil drastically over the next 12 months, more than doubling it to $39.50 per barrel ($248/m3), equivalent to $175 per barrel ($1,101/m3) in 2025. The sudden increase in price was connected with fuel shortages similar to the 1973 oil crisis.[3]
In 1980, following the onset of the Iran–Iraq War, oil production in Iran fell drastically. Iraq's oil production also dropped significantly, triggering economic recessions worldwide. Oil prices did not return to pre-crisis levels until the mid-1980s
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9am:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1 week: Horizontal line was the open Sunday Night. Trend lines don't have much meaning in this environment that's dominated by NEWS! The latest of which is bearish. If the bearish news isn't contradicted by Iran again, we could go back below $100. However, odds are high that Iran will continue to have the exact opposite mindset as Donald Trump.
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This usually means the opposite of what is going to happen considering the extremely unreliable source but uncertainty continues to rule with no end in sight(or we would be $15 lower)
The Financial Times did a survey of global stocks.
https://www.ft.com/content/3beeb26f-6c35-46a9-b116-42edbe6552fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Stockpiles of crude fell by nearly 200mn barrels, or 6.6mn barrels a day, estimated S&P Global Energy, even as higher prices triggered a collapse in demand of about 5mn b/d, the sharpest ever fall outside of the Covid-19 pandemic. “This is massive, it is far above the usual range,” said Jim Burkhard, head of crude research at S&P, adding that in a normal month, global stocks fluctuate by between a few hundred thousand and a million barrels. “An inevitable market reckoning is coming,” he said. In total, the oil market has lost 1bn barrels of crude due to the Iran war so far and while demand is falling fast, it is being “outstripped by the loss of supply”, he added. “Higher crude oil prices are still to come.”
The rest of the article is fairly basic. It does note that things are worst in Asia & Africa, and there is about a 45 day supply of refined products.
Excellent post, patrick!
With time, we will get closer and closer to a new balance between the huge drop in supply and the evolving drop in demand.
However, cheap, reliable and abundant fossil fuels are the life blood to every countries economy. When you don't have those and are instead, forced to CUT DEMAND/USE the indisputable laws of economics kicks in.
Greatly cutting back on liquid energy (fuel for land/water/air) and petroleum to make 6,000 commonly used products will ALWAYS kill the economy as well as cause inflation, which is an additional economy killer.
The current, worst global energy crisis in history, if it continues will have increasingly negative impacts on every country in the world. Even if it ended tomorrow, the recovery will take into at least 2027 to restore the previous balance.
There is already enough damage in the pipeline to cause widespread recessions later this year in many countries. Every day that passes, increases that damage everywhere.
This is clearly a Black Swan Event!
https://www.britannica.com/topic/black-swan-event
black swan event, high-impact event that is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but that in retrospect appears to have been inevitable. A black swan event is unexpected and therefore difficult to prepare for but is often rationalized with the benefit of hindsight as having been unavoidable.
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2:15 pm: Rubio is doing a news conference right now to spin their inability to escape the quagmire that Donald Trump caused into a position of strength. Iran continues to have him by the balls and is using their control of the Straits of Hormuz, the only source of their power to embarrass and hurt Donald Trump. It's hurting EVERYBODY but they don't care.
I always liked Rubio a great deal and he's very sharp but give me a break on his propaganda.
He keeps repeating this false narrative, which has been the rallying lie to justify this war:
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
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In thinking about this more, it seems likely that they decided to use Rubio's world class communicating skills to push the worn out, INEFFECTIVE rhetoric because Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth's complete lack of credibility, outside of MAGA is a huge negative.
All they did was change to a much better messenger, telling us the same message.
When Trump and Hegseth speak, it often hard to not hate them( I don't hate them).
When Marco Rubio tells lies, I can't' help but to still like him!
Something caused front month June Crude to drop $2 in a minute just before 6pm CDT. Marked by the red line on the graph. Time stamps here are in EDT.
This continues to be a market trading NEWS!
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+++++++++++++++++++
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
That $2 spike lower in 1 minute yesterday evening appears to be insider trading(we can't know for sure). Somebody front running the news with a huge hunk of very unusual, speculative selling just before 6pm noted by the first red line below.
Then at 2:30 am, the real obvious fingerprint of insider trading caused another $2 straight down spike in a minute from an entity(s) with heavy speculative selling that was front running the release of the BEARISH news an hour later.
The release of the very bearish news caused crude to collapse an additional $10+ in just over 2 hours from everybody else having the news. The initial release at 3:51am caused crude to drop $3 in just 1 minute and we continued to collapse for another 2 hours, below $90 from the selling of that news.
We are back to mid range right now.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
I have no idea where we might go next but the worst energy crisis in history that was 100% preventable based on unjustifiable human actions...... will come to an end at some point with 100% certainty when 1 or both parties feel enough pain.
The world doesn't feel much more pain than an historic global energy crisis which HURTS EVERYBODY, so the incentives to stop it ASAP are as high as we can get.
The biggest problem is that the 2 main players making decisions are not playing with full decks and incredibly, we found sources that are even LESS credible than Iran, the worlds biggest sponsor of terrorism and lies.
1. Donald Trump
2. Bibi Netanyahu(we already had a clear view into the mind of this psychopath from his genocide in Gaza).
The market is trading noise, not news.
News is that 2 ships and Fujarah were damaged & the escort plan was abandoned after 3 ships in 2 days made it through.
While waiting for the EIA, a picture of Axios from when Twitter was fun
https://x.com/roylschwartz/status/954097111246802945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
News is that 2 ships and Fujarah were damaged & the escort plan was abandoned after 3 ships in 2 days made it through.
?????
Thanks patrick,
The market had that news yesterday. The response to the failure of that plan WAS THE NEWS early this morning. In case you missed it:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119646/#120050
Anything with "says" or "deal" makes my brain lock up & ignore.
Is the high propane storage this year leftover from the warm winter in the propane belt?
Anyhow, the EIA report is all about exports:
Thanks, Patrick. Excellent data.
Your theory that high propane levels after the heating season (which was extremely mild in some places) seems to make good sense.
I'll check on that.
This as Dec-Jan-Feb temps
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
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March 2026 was the warmest in history for the US by a wide margin which likely meant the LEAST amount of propane used for heating in many places at the end of the heating season!!! This confirms your explanation, patrick!!!
Compare that to last years Dec-Jan-Feb coldest time of Winter. BELOW average temps and higher demand/usage of propane for heating.
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021/11/01/the-geography-of-heating-oil-and-propane/
I predict that what looks like rampant market manipulation and related corruption related to this war will be in the news for many years to come.
How can this be stopped and prevented in the future?
“BREAKING: According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a ‘14-point’ deal to end the war.At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news.This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is ‘close’ to a ‘memorandum of understanding’ to end the Iran War.By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million.Minutes later, Iran launched the ‘Persian Gulf Strait Authority’ and oil prices surged +8%.What just happened?”
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2052016279746195616?r
I can't think of a legitimate reason anyone would leak to Axios. And if there is any substance to what they told them, it requires a subscription I don't want - https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo
The best reporting I can find is from the BBC, but even it has no details at all on what the supposed proposal entails.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c152zyj0599t
Thanks, patrick!
I don't think anybody is making a claim that this was leaked to Axios based on the insider trading.
If I understand this, Axios broke the story as happens all the time with different news organizations with their different contacts/sources. All the other news reporting agencies were on it at about the same time and regardless of who broke the story THIS time, the results would have been the same.
Some entity that was INDEPENDENT of Axios knew about it an hour earlier and put on a massive short that spiked crude down by $2 because all their selling to be satiated, had to trade that much lower to uncover enough buy orders to match with their selling at the market orders. Those standing buy orders were sitting ducks for the insider trader(s) to pick off in order to quickly put on a HUGE short position. The longs would have lost the same amount of money that the insider short trader(s) profited if they all exited a few hours later.
Larry's source showed the increase in volume from the front running/insider trading to back up my speculation from earlier this morning.
Its almost impossible to know any details, other than the extremely odd selling an hour before the news without an investigation into who did the selling, what/who their connections are and what their reason to sell was.
Without that, all we have is just extraordinarily powerful anecdotal evidence along with some strong data to support our solid theory.
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I just thought of something else profound. when the insider trader(s) SOLD to put on their position an hour before the news hit, because this is a zero sum game, an equal number of LONGS were created…….less the buyers that were just covering their short position. to go flat.
When the news hit, many to most of those fresh longs would have covered ASAP in a market that featured everybody trying to sell at the same time and nobody wanting to buy.
So the insider trader(s) was not only positioned for the extreme, knee jerk reaction down to the news but their actions added a ton of longs that added massive fuel to the selling fire when that news was released.
FWIW is this post from a “nobody” in the crude invest.com comments section:
“920 MILLION in oil shorts placed 70 minutes before a ‘deal’ headline hits. No news. No leaks. No signals. Just a massive, precision trade at 3:40 AM. Then the story drops. Oil crashes 12%. Those positions print $125 million. Minutes later, geopolitics flips again, oil rips back +8%.”
—————
So, this is just a post from an anon person. But is he accurately stating facts?
———————
Then this nobody posts this:
“truth about the manipulation this morning is coming out. this should be in the 100s”
Is he right?
Larry, I have little doubt that this was insider trading based on how strong the data fingerprint is and as somebody that has traded markets, including energy(natural gas/heating oil) that understands how they work and what makes sense.
I'm just another random nobody but like the source you noted, some of us nobody's that understand markets and speak out should be listened to when our points come with a story backed by data.
And we already knew this was happening!!!
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The opposing side claims that these are conspiracy theories based on people with TDS.
With regards to me, I don't start or follow conspiracy theories unless the intent is TO BUST THEM which is usually pretty easy with authentic facts/data. As Larry's source showed and previous trades/sources have shown, the authentic data strongly supports this position.
Sort of like huge smoke pouring out of a building that should NOT be burning anything. Is believing that there is a fire inside based on knowledge of fires and critical thinking or isn't it?
https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/energy/question43.htm
How do you add in what the algorithms do. They would probably be adding to the fire.
Thanks, cutworm!
That is likely very true. This insider trading is clearly coming from an entity that probably understands that. It makes sense to think that this is a TEAM that consists of an insider that gets the information, who hooked up with a person that trades crude for a living. They know where the resting bids are and how much lower they need to price orders to fill X,XXX number of contracts. 10,000 in this case. This person(s) would not just sell 10,000 contracts at the market without knowing what prices they would be filled at. That could be suicide without knowing they would all be filled within $2 on the price based on knowing where thousands of contracts in bids are. A political insider is not likely to know this. A professional crude trader with HUGE accounts would make a living knowing this.
The person(s) putting on the positions are likely spreading them out, using numerous orders from numerous firms to make them less conspicuous. Selling 10,000 contracts at once from 1 account in the overnight market is going to make it obvious.
Total volume for crude in the front month June is 386,000 contracts as we approach the close. I'll bet there are some huge traders that DO trade 10,000 contracts in a day. July has 188,000 contracts. August, 130,000. September 127,000.
The sudden selling an hour before the BEARISH news crashed the crude market would likely have impacted more than just the front month June.
June dropped around $2, July less than $2 and August around -$1.5. Even if the insider trader was not selling all the front 3 months, other, spread traders would be jumping in and the bids/offers would quickly change for deferred contracts to adjust for the front month chance.
If I was doing this, I would absolutely spread the selling over additional near term months to capture the resting buy orders UNDER the market in order to maximize this scheme. A person doing this would have an extremely developed strategy that employs algoriths, like cutworm stated using a computer program an elite knowledge, along with accounts with countless millions in margin equity.
What is the margin in crude right now? Looks like it is around $13,000. Multiply that by holding 10,000 short contracts!!! That would add up to a margin requirement of $130,000,000!!!
Of course they were likely trading on day margins but that would still require over 10 million in equity if they were maxing out their trading power(which is extremely unlikely because the bounce after they were done selling would have caused a temporary HUGE margin call and possible liquidation requirement. So they likely had at least $50 million in equity to pull this off if they controlled 10,000 contracts, for instance. REAL numbers could be off by alot but this is just using hypothetical, potential numbers to understand the comprehensive dynamics to pull this off.
There would be an outside chance to explain this happening 1 time from somebody putting on a massive short position using algoriths 1 time that just got lucky(and would have lost a boatload if they were wrong because covering that short position at higher prices would have been extremely costly.
But the timing is extraordinarily damning and its happened more than 1 time.
If the independent odds of it happening 1 time are 1 out of 100, the chances of the same thing happening 2 times are 1 out of 100 X 100 = 1 out of 10,000. 3 times and its 1 out of 1 million.
Let's be extremely naive with a benefit of the doubt mind frame and pretend the odds were 1 out of 10 for this to happen from legit trading. Then we go to 1 out of 100, for 2 times, then for 3 times, 1 out of 1,000 that the same exact, sort of freak thing would happen 3 times based on random luck and not human's manipulating the system.
HIGHER open!
5:03pm: We opened around $3 higher not quite a gap higher, right at the highs from the Thursday evening open(Friday trading session).
Every day like this is another day of INCREASING brutal punishment to every countries economy!
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https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-attacks-qeshm-island-ceasefire/
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12:30 pm: Crude is back at $100, +$4.60
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
5pm Monday: Prices are around $40 higher than they were before Donald Trump's unprovoked, completely unjustified quagmire war with Iran based ENTIRELY on Bibi Netanyahu convincing Donald Trump to attack with him to put Israel First, ahead of Americans and the rest of the world.
The first half of this 1 year chart was a continuation of the down trend MUCH lower in prices that started in 2022 and continued in 2023, 2024 and 2025..........until Donald Trump messed it up. The start of the war resulted in the huge spike up.
Even if the war ended tomorrow and the Straight of Hormuz were opened later this month, the global crude market will not restore the previous balance until well into 2027. We will need to restore the severely depleted global SPR too, which creates additional demand.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Crude 4/19/26+
By metmike - April 26, 2026, 9:15 p.m.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 10 years: +$45 because of Donald Trumps unjustified war without a coherent plan or objective.
If you want to see an analyst get thoroughly mocked, head over to Xitter
Agreed, patrick!!!
This likely means a recession in many countries, probably a global recession and maybe a US recession.
Cheap, reliable and abundant fossil fuels are the life blood to every developed countries economy.
Yes. People see the insanely rosy scenario of war over in 3 weeks, and miss the real message that even if that happens, shortage will last the rest of the year.
TBF, there is no reason at all to think things will be settled in 3 weeks.
Exactly, patrick!!!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week. Making new highs today
2. 1 month, close to May highs.
3. 1 year: Still below the highs from the war spikes up but looking bullish with no end in sight..
4. 10 years Still below the spike up in 2022 but, outside of that brief spike up, these are by far the highest crude prices since the Summer of 2008. COVID lows in 2022 stand out too.
Just a reminder, that the cause of this war, was from the worst decision of a president of the United States in history, as he committed treason against his country, the United States by following the leader of a foreign country, Bibi Netanyahu of Israel.
This was completely unprovoked(in fact, AFTER Iran has agreed to his demands on the enriched uranium so Donald Trump also betrayed Iran to follow Netanyahu).
Completely unjustified (Irans enriched uranium is buried deeply underground and they have made no efforts to develop nuclear weapons since the US dropped the bunker busting bombs on them in June 2025/.
Now we have the worst global energy crisis in history because of a president that lacks coherent thinking and planning that has no clue on how to resolve it.
Almost everything he has stated about this subject the past 2.5 months has been blatant lying which has completely exposed him as a self absorbed lunatic that is completely unqualified to be our president. Some of his stuff is from galactically absurd land
Donald Trump's Diagnosis NAILED!
Started by metmike - April 6, 2026, 9:44 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119295/
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For MAGA readers that don't like it when the trade related analysis on the trading forum comes down to this.............yeah, me too!
If I had 1 wish right now, it would be that we would hurry up and impeach Donald Trump so my priority here doesn't have to be speaking out about a diabolical man who is wrecking the United States and wrecking the world.
I pray that he is NOT assassinated! That would make things even worse. Removal from office is the only option that makes sense.
And oddly enough, the biggest benefactors would be the R party!!!!
It would stop the blood from gushing out and allow the R party to start healing instead of dying from political Donald Trump DISEASE.
I'll guess a slightly higher open.
That's what we got. The front month, June expires in the next few days with the next month, July getting numerous times more volume.
Contract expiration in an environment like this could feature and insane spike! It just depends on if we get a bunch of trapped, large shorts that do panic buying to cover a position they have to get out of before expiration in a very low volume front month market.
Mike said: “I'll guess a slightly higher open.
That's what we got. The front month, June expires in the next few days with the next month, July getting numerous times more volume.”
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Hey Mike,
Is July ~$4 lower than June? Is June ~$107.50 vs July’s ~$103.50? I’m guessing that based on what you said here and investing.com showing crude up ~$2.50 even though the chart shows a lower opening. Friday’s investing.com close shows ~$105.50 whereas today’s has crude at ~$103.50. So, was investing.com showing June on Fri vs July today?
EIA Report: -19 total storage on 5.5 net exports
Thanks, patrick!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week below. The $5 spike lower was the price drop from the rollover of the previous front month, June to the NEW front month, July.
As seasoned traders know, when the front months are priced so much higher than the deferred contracts, it's a roaring BULL market with extremely bullish near term fundamentals!
https://www.britannica.com/money/contango-vs-backwardation-differences
Backwardation is a market condition in which the deferred future prices of a given commodity, currency, or asset are lower than the spot or near-term contract price. It’s characterized by a declining curve in future prices (see figure 2).
Figure 2: DOWNHILL RUN. As of January 2024, CME Group's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Futures are in backwardation, with deferred contracts reflecting lower prices than those of the near term.
Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.
For example, as shown in figure 2, as of January 2024, the nearest-term WTI crude oil futures was trading for about $71 per barrel, versus $67.44 per barrel for the June 2025 contract.
Backwardation happens when near-term demand exceeds supply, or when tight supply can’t meet existing demand. Short-term disruptions to the supply chain can send a market into a backwardated state, as buyers will likely bid up prices for goods whose supply is rapidly dwindling in the near term.
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The crude oil market right now is in extreme BACKWARDATION!
This is why the price dropped $5 on the chart above when we switched from graphing June to graphing July.
Insane volatility continues based entirely on NEWS about the Iran war and negotiations.
I marked the spike up on the 1 day graph below from this news. Up $3+ in just minutes.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
With the high miles Summer driving season officially kicking off with Memorial Day Weekend, the additional miles that people drive on Summer vacations will really bite.
This weekend, when people are driving out of town for the holiday, they will be bombarded with negative ads for Donald Trump and the Rs...............as they pass the many huge electronic gas price signs meant to get peoples attention at all the gas stations around the country.
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10316
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
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How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war
Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
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The price has jumped more than $1, just since I copied that graph above before I started this post.
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With regard to patrick's data above:
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https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.png)
New week is a good time for a new thread. Please continue crude oil discussions here:
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