Dow@mark_dowTrump has won this war 7 times. He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times. And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times. What more do you want from him?
It’s a new week, a good time to start a new crude oil thread. Please continue discussions here. Thank you.
The prior thread is here:
Iran has agreed to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a “largely negotiated” deal to end the war, according to US sources.
The deal includes an “apparent commitment” to giving up the uranium, but a concrete plan of how this would be done is expected to be established in further rounds of talks, two US officials told The New York Times.
The emerging agreement would also reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls during a 60-day ceasefire and allow Iran to resume unrestricted oil sales, according to a report by Axios citing a US official.
Iran would agree to clear the mines it has deployed in the waterway. Meanwhile, Washington would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and hand out sanctions waivers on Iranian oil.
Iran 'will surrender uranium stockpile' in US deal
Will it happen???????
EDIT: Does crude open tonight?
Thanks, cutworm.
Cutworm/all:
Yes, crude trades this evening normally but closes early tomorrow at 1:30PM CDT.
Will it open down sharply? Any guesses?
Thanks for the new link, Larry!
cutworm,
Yes, crude oil does open at the regular time this evening!
With regards to Iran surrendering it's enriched uranium.
They had already agreed to that back in February.
With regards to Iran and their enriched uranium. It's been buried deeply underground and sealed in cement since last June when we hit it with the bunker busting bombs. Tulsey Gabbard testified to this under oath in March. She would know better than any person on the planet and I consider her one of the very few HONEST people in politics(which is extremely the real reason that she resigned).
If you're an R, it's political suicide to tell a truth that contradicts Donald Trump. It would be complete insanity and contradict who she is to make up lies to contradict Donald Trump while she was in this position.
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
+++++++++++++++++++
See all the facts/evidence below that support this TRUTH:
Tulsi Gabbard resigns
Started by metmike - May 22, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120389/
+++++++++++++++
Regardless of the AUTHENTIC TRUTH, the market is trading the LIE(repeated so many times that it's now the alternative, FAKE TRUTH).
Will Iran actually turn over the enriched uranium?
Again, it's buried in a place that would take months and months to get to and what they are saying on May 24, 2026 means very little with regards to actions in X months down the road. Neither Iran, Netanyahu or Trump have ever stuck to any agreements in the past. In fact, Trump sometimes completely changes his position in the same day.
+++++++++++++
The other thing is that Iran had already agreed to draw down their enriched uranium in February, BEFORE Donald Trump attacked for Netanyahu.
By metmike - May 22, 2026, 10:18 a.m.
1. Does this make them MORE likely to agree again(and follow thru)?
2. Or does it make them LESS likely to follow thru because Donald Trump totally betrayed them in June 2025, then again in February 2026?
I pick door #2. Iran has 0 trust in anything coming from Donald Trump and less reasons to do anything longer term but all the reasons to say and do things short term that will get them what they want in May 2026.
The markets will trade what Donald Trump and Iran say and do in May 2026. They both want the Strait open, extremely badly and there was no way the worst energy crisis in history could go on much longer when BOTH parties, suffering the most can just SAY THE RIGHT THINGS to get it open again.
There is tremendous uncertainty but BOTH parties need the Strait open so badly that it makes it likely for that outcome to happen. Donald Trump pretending that he holds all the cards was the opposite of the truth and the one thing that we CAN know with certainty is that Donald Trump will manufacture a complete hogwash narrative here that paints a picture of him having a massive, one sided victory that accomplished his objective and is worth the short term pain (that was, in reality over 1 million times more massive pain than benefits to hurt Iran) the world has suffered.
No surprise crude had a small gap lower -$3+ (open 93.90)and is down more than $4 right now.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week with gap
2. 10 years: COVID low 2020. Ukraine war 2022. Downtrend 2024/2025. Iran war spike/high 2026.
Good morning, MarketForum
Weekly gap lower remains in tact. Hovering around 6 bucks a barrel lower. Surprising as peace talks seem to be stalling as Iran merely promises to talk about turning over uranium.
Great morning to you, tjc and a special one to honor the true hero's in this country!
Have a meaningful Memorial Day 2026
Started by metmike - May 25, 2026, 1:44 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120449/
Yes, good points on the crude. It has continued with follow thru from the gap lower yesterday evening which under most circumstances would indicate a downside break away gap.
However, crude oil has been trading almost exclusively on NEWS for almost 3 months and the NEWS has been impossible to predict and all the previous gaps up and down have been filled, so although this one appears to have staying power, there WILL BE more NEWS and that NEWS will determine if we continue lower and finally marks the end or whether its just another gap and crap selling/buying exhaustion from the NEWS changing.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 day: With gap lower shown.
2. 1 week: Note that the gap was also a gap lower on the WEEKLY chart. The open and highs so far THIS week are lower than the lows of LAST week.
3. 1 month: Gap lower shown. Support might now mean as much as news at this time.
4. 1 year: Previous downtrend. Gap higher from unjustified attack on Iran. Lower highs and gap lower. From a charting perspective this is extremely bearish!
5. 10 years, see previous page. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120426/#120437
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/25/world/live-news/iran-war-us-peace-deal
+++++++++++++
No surprises there. The huge surprise would be when the actions and results actually line up with the words, empty promises.
Crude has bounced $3+ from the lows but has been unable to get into the bottom of the downside gap yet.
1. 1 day: Big recovery as tensions go back up in the Iran wars and NEWS turned bullish again.
2. 1 week: Still below the gap lower from Sunday Night after Donald Trump announced an agreement with the promise for the Strait of Hormuz to open soon which clobbered the market with bearish NEWS.
+++++++++++++
Bearish NEWS pushed crude lower overnight.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week: Top 2 lines define the gap(last Friday's lows, Sunday night's open/highs) that was barely filled. Bottom line is the low from Monday. We spiked below that a short while ago and are just above it at the moment.
Al Jazeera's tracking is great on the details, although it can be hard to follow who's saying something and who's saying that thing is rubbish.
In any event, as to your header about fully open Hormuz & US withdrawal, it says -
Thanks very much, patrick!
I provided a link to a place that is giving constantly updated headlines, with the last one there to follow my personal formatting preference that includes a title above every link.
I'm not vouching for anybody or anything at this time. Crude traders with millions on the line have access to far more than me and they seem to be saying the light is at the end of the tunnel(or Strait in this case). They have been wrong before. A lot of times in fact.
It will be physically impossible to restore the steady state balance that we had in the market and restock global SPR oil before 2027. If they leave the sanctions off of Russia as well as keep other increases going, it will happen faster.
But make no mistake, this was the biggest unjustified war embarrassment to the United States in its history by an order of magnitude. Trump will declare a great victory and make up reasons for it.
The damage to the world was in tens of trillions, much that involves money that will never come back to Americans(for gas, inflation and weapons). to get NOTHING.
Actually, we did get something profound.
A crystal clear look into the mind of Donald Trump. For the entire world to see, which is a huge factor in why this was so embarrassing. Before the war, other countries could read about and see what was going on in America and see/hear the insane things that Donald Trump was saying with amusement..........until Donald Trump caused the worst global energy crisis in history and brought America's huge problem to every country on the planet for a completely unjustified war that Bibi Netanyahu convinced him to fight for Israel.
Donald Trump's crisis hit the economies and pocketbooks of everyone, everywhere because he clearly wants to make himself an historic legend and conqueror ON A GLOBAL SCALE and has lost his critical thinking and common sense from progressive dementia. So he followed Bibi Netanyahu because Netanyahu is a genius that understands how to manipulate Donald Trump's diseased brain with over the top/exaggerated adulation which Donald Trump's pathological condition needs like you and I need oxygen.
That was a TRADE RELATED post because it's the analysis for why and how crude oil did what it did.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 month: Lower high, followed by a steep drop o almost $20 since just May 18th. Potential support right here at the May lows.
2. 1 year: From left to right. Previous downtrend that started a couple of years earlier. Upside breakaway gap higher to start March after the war started. Potential, funky head and shoulders pattern with lower highs the past 2 months. April lows may be hard to crack with the shortage of global crude lasting thru much of this year.
2026 Iran war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war
The strikes took place during active negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.[194][195]
+++++++++
How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
+++++++++++
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Here we go again???
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-israel-hezbollah-lebanon/
+++++++++++
Trump warned Iran’s efforts to outlast him won’t work because he doesn’t 'care about the midterms.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/27/world/live-news/iran-war-us-news
+++++++++++++
Dear Donald Trump: It already worked. The world has been able to see clearly how you think, talk and behave with your unprovoked war that you're unable to get out of.
The same evil regime remains fully in power. There has been no change to the nuclear program or enriched uranium which is buried deeply in the ground and the worst global energy crisis in history is about to start its 4th month. The US advanced weapons stockpile is severely depleted and US tax payers owe another 50 billion to pay for it.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
EIA today - holiday week.
Net draw 18.9 million, about average lately
Net exports 5.5 MMBPD - all products, crude was a small net import
Price looks stable today. Saw the first <$4 gas ($3.99.9) in a while on the way to the woods with the dog>
ExxonMobil is bullish, as it were -
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/exxon-warns-oil-inventories-near-132743623.html
ExxonMobil senior vice president Neil Chapman warned Thursday that global oil inventories are approaching record lows and that prices will spike sharply within weeks, according to CNBC.
Speaking at the Bernstein conference in New York, Chapman laid out a stark timeline. "We're approaching unheard of inventory levels," he said. "I mean really, really low levels. You can debate whether that's going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you'll see price shoot up."
Once stockpiles reach historic lows, physical Brent could climb to between $150 and $160 a barrel, Chapman said. Prices at that level would erode consumption enough to pull them back down, he said. July Brent futures settled below $94 a barrel on Thursday.
Thanks very much, patrick!
That means this downside correction must be overdone!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year. Far left: Downtrend that started in 2024 and ended in 2026. Horizontal lines are the upside break away gap higher the Sunday Night after the war in Iran. April 7 spike high with 2 lower highs after that. Now down almost $40 from the highs that were actually ~$126.
I found this interesting. Issued just before the unjustified, unprovoked Iran war.
February 27, 2026
Soft supply-demand fundamentals are putting downward pressure on global oil prices — but geopolitical risks remain a wild card.
Small upside gap higher to start the week! Currently up $2.50 with 8 minutes of trading.
Iran says it's suspending talks until Israel stops bombing Lebanon.
Crude up almost $7!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week with open last evening being the horizontal line.
2. 1 month: Upside break out from 2 week downtrend.
Graveyard humor from a Canadian economist on bsky
Exactly, patrick!
As I have been saying forever, the stock market is a rich person's Ponzi Scheme based partly on the Law of Self Fulfilling Prophesies. They KNOW that Donald Trump is the president of the rich people, obsessed with the stock market as his top priority......which maintains their perpetual bullishness and dumping more money into the stock market because they are convinced the stock market will keep going higher(ignoring fundamentals and extreme OVER valuations).
I have no idea when it will end but every Ponzi Scheme and catastrophically overvalued market eventually has a reckoning day. The greater the disparity, the more downside there is when the big spec money heads for the exits at the same time as computer generated sell signals flash on their screens.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119764/#120583
Dow@mark_dowTrump has won this war 7 times. He’s negotiated a peace settlement 12 times. And he’s opened the Strait of Hormuz at least 4 times. What more do you want from him?That is probably UNDERcounting
If the SpaceX scam doesn't break faith in the market, what will?
https://danafblankenhorn.substack.com/p/the-coming-spacex-scam
Elon Musk is a brilliant guy with some wonderful products and investments but he's also one of the biggest charlatans of our time!
Re: Re: Interstellar Travel is IMPOSSIBLE!
By metmike - Feb. 14, 2026, 11:33 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: Interstellar Travel is IMPOSSIBLE!
By metmike - Feb. 14, 2026, 11:38 p.m.
Musk may have been smart once. He's now a drug addled Nazi spinning an ever sillier web of hype & lies. Tunnels that never get built, giant exploding rockets, self driving death traps, and the worst AI ever created.
That NASDAQ is enabling his SpaceX fraud shows that the lesson they took from Madoff is to go much bigger.
Thanks, patrick,
There are a lot of brilliant people that abuse drugs that don't' turn into massive charlatans.
Elon Musk is all about Elon Musk. They missed Bill Gates on the list below. He donates a ton of money.
https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1rchnue/the_amount_elon_musk_has_donated_over_his/
Bill Gates:
Here’s why I decided to give away virtually all of my wealth, and how I pick issues to work on.
I believe that people who are financially successful have a responsibility to give back to society.
No sign of the end in the unjustified war(with a continuation of the completely made up imminent threat of nuclear weapons)!
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
++++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 week. Open and lows on Sunday Night with prices in an uptrend this week. The lines don't mean that much in this market since NEWS is in the drivers seat. The driver is reckless and deserves to have his drivers license taken away for life
Total stocks only down 10.5 this week. Gasoline consumption off 700K MMBPD, & net overall exports down to 5.1.
Thanks very much, patrick!
SPR stocks down 50,000 the past 2 months:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
.png)
+++++++++
Crude oil stocks went UP by 20,000 the first 6 weeks after the war started before dropping back down by 20,000 the last 6 weeks since then.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCESTUS1&f=W.png)
The US is NOT going to run low on crude oil! We import some heavy crude from Canada and Mexico but produce more than we use of the light(sweet) crude.
Re: Re: Re: 3-12-26 SPR oil/gas prices
By metmike - March 12, 2026, 12:27 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118598/#118604
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118598/#118605
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118598/#118606
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118598/#118607
Unleaded gas is a different deal. Stocks always peak early in the year, then drop, especially thru the Summer vacation driving season.
Stocks this year had their annual peak in February, like they usually do but have already plunged by 47,000+ thru May with the Summer driving season ahead of us.
Just look at the graph below. We peaked at close to the highest stocks ever but have dropped by the most ever in such a short period of time(3 months) since then and are actually getting close to the lowest in 14 years for this date. The bottom/lows in storage almost always happens in October, so with 4 more months of just average draw downs, we will be at the lowest since 2008.
Continuing at the current rate of draining gasoline stocks would easily result in the lowest amount of total gasoline in ending stocks on the graph below when we hit our seasonal bottom in 4 months.
However, with sustained high gas prices, there could be some demand destruction which slows the draw downs.
Regardless, gasoline supplies that were robust to start the year have been drawn down to the lower end of the historical range extremely fast. I'm not sure but this suggests that we're exporting more with higher prices overseas because I don't think its from domestic demand but this bodes poorly for future gas prices.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W.png)
Go to oil r/oil • Practical_Signal2318
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1to1ak7/us_gasoline_inventories_have_fallen_for_14/
This chart is the inventory side but the export data adds another layer. Refinery runs have been climbing since April but inventories are still falling. Normally higher throughput builds stock. Right now it isnt because export demand is absorbing everything.
Russian refining capacity is down roughly 2 million barrels a day from drone strikes and Middle East product exports through Hormuz are basically zero. So everyone is coming to the US for barrels right when summer demand kicks in.
At some point something has to give, either exports get curtailed or domestic gasoline prices go high enough to actually kill demand. So far neither has.
Crude will likely open up sharply due to Iran’s current attacks on Israel, which have been intercepted (10 missiles), as retaliation for Israel’s attack on Beirut, which itself was a retaliation for Hezbollah shooting rockets into N Israel.
Thanks, Larry!
We're in Destin, FL along the Gulf Coast and spending time outside and with my 3 kids and 4 grand kids.
Sure looks like you will be right on that opening call! We'll be riding go carts on the open but I'll chime in later.
YW Mike! I went to Destin for one trip way back in the 1990s. White sand like sugar. Breakers small. The Gulf is like a gigantic lake!
Crude did open up but the good news is that it isn’t sharply up with it up only ~$2.50.
Crude dropped $3 just during 6:10-7AM CDT!
6am seems to be important. Today, it jumped $3
The EIA says stocks fell a bit less as net exports went from 5.2 to 4.9MMBPD last week.
Thanks a ton, Patrick!
Thats the same time frame when natural gas spikes up or down. I believe it’s from the big funds coming in to trade.
Unleaded gas stocks have stopped dropping fast(temporary?) at a time when they normally drop.
I probably shouldn't be posting EIA numbers. They're super secret!
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mnx3th3czn2v
Exactly, patrick!!!
This is just another of many thousands of examples of a man with a diseased brain and IN ADDITION is suffering from progressive dementia.
+++++
Let's shift comments on that topic here:
January worst month for job cuts since 2009
Started by metmike - Feb. 5, 2026, 9:48 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117766/
On the oil side of it, I finally found out what he's talking about. Sneaking oil tankers through Hormuz, maybe 2,000,000 barrels a day. Until one gets hit.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-strait-hormuz-iran-oil-tanker-navy.html
Great post, patrick!
I didn't catch that until you elaborated!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 day
2. 1 month crude: NEWS matters more than support, resistance and trend lines. Downtrend the 2nd half of May. Double bottom.
3. 10 years crude: April 2020 spike low to NEGATIVE PRICE when crude on oil tankers had no place to go from excessive supply. Biden/Putin Ukraine war price spike up in 2022 that was tested by the Trump/Netanyahu Iran war spike up. Downtrend in between that.
++++++++++
+++++++++++++
Iran continues to have clueless Donald Trump by the balls. Making him look like the biggest buffoon in history in front of a global audience that continues to suffer massive harm from Trump's unjustified, illegal war that lacked a coherent plan and overlooked the inevitable worst global energy crisis in history when he committed TREASON by following the leader of another country, while ignoring his own Intelligence Department.
Tulsi Gabbard resigns
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120389/
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/09/politics/times-trump-iran-deal-close
Including the period before the ceasefire, he’s done it at least 38 times. That’s the number of times he’s said directly — in social media posts, public appearances and phone calls with the media — that a deal was nigh or claimed Iran was desperate to cut one.
++++++++++++++
Billions of people in the world have been observing Donald Trump's leadership close up the past 4 months because ALL OF THEM are being greatly impacted by the worst global energy crisis in history. What they have heard and seen is jaw dropping shocking. Most Americans knew this already but now, the entire world knows.
Trump said a deal is near and crude dropped $3+ in a few minutes. How many(dozens of) times have we seen this happen?
Eventually, Donald Trump will be right about this. A broken clock is right 2 times a day Maybe Donald Trump is right 1 time every 4 months
Seriously though, the market seems to be trading more on the law of self fulfilling prophesies. Or sort of like Pavlov's Dog.
Pavlov, trained his dog to salivate before meals by ringing a bell first. The dog associated the upcoming food with the bell ringing first.............and the bell ringing triggered the salivating, even when no food came.
In the crude market, whether there is an agreement or not, all traders have been trained to sell crude when Donald Trump gives the market fake bearish news about Iran. Regardless of the XX number of times that it was fake news, all the traders know that all the other traders will sell when Donald Trump announces more fake news.
Ironically, instead of the market ignoring Donald Trump's fake news over time, the XX number of times that we experienced this happening has REINFORCED this reaction.
Certain markets have strong seasonals that repeat so many times that the original reason for the seasonal might not be there but the Composite Man(all the traders combined) will buy or sell because the majority of traders ANTICIPATE the seasonal, just because of the high number of times it happened in the past.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
An expectation that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads to those expectations being validated
A self-fulfilling prophecy is an expectation – positive or negative – about something or someone that can affect a person’s behavior in a way that leads those expectations to become a reality. For example, if investors think the stock market will crash, they will buy fewer stocks, prices will start to decline, and the market will actually crash.
++++++++++++
In the stock market
The Pavlovian Trap Behind Every Market Rally
https://www.investing.com/analysis/the-pavlovian-trap-behind-every-market-rally-200669522
+++++++++++++++++++
I contend that these 2 profoundly powerful psychological impacts explain the current rich person's Ponzi Scheme. The stock market keeps soaring to new highs on massive over valuations, negative economic and other news that should be making it go lower(and eventually will).
Everybody knows that the stock market and rich people are Donald Trump's top priority. 90% of the new money flows is coming from this sector. THEY KNOW IT and THEY KNOW that as long as this dynamic exists(with Donald Trump having their backs), they can ignore everything else and just positively reinforce each other's investments by continuing to add more and more money to a realm that they can control with this behavior.
The "deal" is Iran's fondest wishlist.
https://x.com/_MartinKelly_/status/2065357291621101881
Excellent information to know, patrick, thanks!
Donald Trump is furious over this because he wants the world to think he's a magical mystery, "art of the deal" maker based on manufactured/false narratives related to his actual deal making skills and not who he really is which are the authentic facts.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 day: Spike lower when Donald Trump announced that he ended the Iran war on Thursday morning(an hour after he was last stating the US was planning to bomb the heck out of them that night). Bouncing back up after the TRUTH is revealed, which contradicted Donald Trump for the 39th time.
2.. 1 week: Downtrend. Breaking support but reversing back above it early this morning.
3. 1 year: Downtrend last year. Upside break away gap after the Iran war. Descending wedge/triangle with lower and lower highs and the same lows/support holding.
The market continues to trades NEWS more than anything. However, there is no question that the MOST bullish news has resulted in lower and lower highs.
The daily cycle is becoming more predictable. As was that Wednesday's blabbing would force the Iranians to attack the ships sneaking by them.
Exactly, patrick!
By metmike - June 12, 2026, 1:09 a.m.
Donald Trump's diagnosis:
Re: Re: Re: Re: Iran War 4/24/26+
By metmike - June 12, 2026, 11:34 a.m.
New thread:
Gas prices
Started by metmike - June 12, 2026, 4:55 p.m.
Note this post back on January 29, 2026:
New Donald Trump January 6 website
By metmike - Jan. 29, 2026, 1:26 p.m.
Would Donald Trump get us into a war with Iran because he feels so empowered right now after imposing so much agenda with impunity?
Because he's the most powerful man in the world with the most powerful military, has delusions of grandeur and pathological thinking and progressive dementia?
Would Donald Trump get us into a war with Iran to deflect the bad press he's getting at home for his disastrous policies?
Yes!
Would Donald Trump get us into a war in Iran to please his master in Israel?
YES!
REALLY??
YOU are best when are an analysist, not an editorialist. Would it not be better to review the crude chart and say:
Crude appears to have put in a daily cycle low on May 29, with a (very) modest rally, and now is in a down trend with the possibility of further, much steeper, downside follow through (bearish, 'peace'). However, Friday's price action (June 12) may signal recovery and more upside possible price action, (bullish, treaty failure), most likely NOT to exceed 96. OBVIOUSLY, the prospects of renewed hostilities OR peace will dictate the direction. Please note, crude completed its 8th week from its last weekly low on April 17 and is most likely only half way through to its next weekly cycle.
"YOU are best when are an analysist, not an editorialist."
Thanks very much, tjc!
You're letting YOUR political bias blind you to that analysis, one of my best ever that was used to predict the Iran war!!!
It was a mainly a political/psychological analysis at the time(that ended up being the MOST important item for crude the past 4 months) but still an analysis.
As you know, Donald Trump has had an enormous impact on the markets and I try to limit my comments about him on the trading forum to mostly the crude and economy related threads because he has been the MAIN impact. None in the natural gas and grains for instance even though there has been some impact.
I've moved a few posts from the trading forum to the NTR forum before because of them being political. However, this one belongs on both forums. It may be partly to brag that I predicted the war but mostly to make it clear about exactly what MAGA is so blind to. I'm objectively and psychologically analyzing Donald Trump in every way shape and form as a scientist and analyst(political) and passing on that authentic and USEFUL information to enlighten readers who want to learn from it.
As mentioned a zillion times, I don't hate Donald Trump and I will try to make an extra effort to minimize his mention on the trading forum but MarketForum is an ANTI echo chamber, not like almost all other places that focus on things that maximize the number of readers and posters, stating things that readers WANT TO READ.
The truth, enlightening, educating, respecting others and sharing my gifts and things that I learn are the only things that matter here.
I'm extremely pleased to have somebody like you on board, contributing with your wonderful trading insights.
We had a huge gap lower on the open on bearish NEWS related to the Iran war. Now well below the May lows but above the April lows.
$80 appears to be major support but charts aren't that great in a market like this. Speaking of which, the graphing source we use was unable to properly graph tonight's prices so they aren't included.
NEWS still rules but now, there is tremendous upside risk because most of the bearish news is dialed in. The market is trading on the assumption that there will be a deal and the Strait of Hormuz will open and things will normalize.
If something happens to derail that, the spike up could be enormous, especially because the supply situation is very precarious with SPR's around the world already drawn down and prices having plunged $XX from their highs and us being at rock solid support at $80.
Also, it will take many months to reach a new steady state that features a gradual recovery in global crude supplies and crude in storage. Replenishing SPR, whenever that happens will put added buying underneath the market.
Maybe most countries will wait until 2027 to do that?
After the worst global energy crisis in history, one would think that most countries better appreciate having a robust SPR as a safety mechanism against the next potential supply disruption.
Lots of features on this 1 year crude price chart!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
Last of the 2+ year downtrend/lower prices late last year. Bottom to start 2026 with tensions with Iran, followed by uptrend, then gap higher after the unprovoked, unjustified war.
Spike higher and top, followed by accelerating downtrend.
Collapse lower in prices with the announcement in the peace deal and gap lower on Sunday Night. We are now well below $80 support and all the previous lows except for the prices immediately after the war and the bottom of the upside break away gap higher.
NEWS continues to be the most powerful price determining factor.
Israel hasn't been allowed to see the deal they're supposed to be part of.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-899606
"The United States denied Israel's request to view the newly agreed-upon Memorandum of Understanding before the signing ceremony, expected to be held in Switzerland later this week, a source confirmed to The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.
Earlier on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he would read the deal "word for word," though he did not specify when.
As of now, the details of the deal have not been published, which reportedly has 14 separate clauses, including the withdrawal of the IDF from southern Lebanon, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and releasing some $24 billion dollars in sanctioned funds."
Thanks much, patrick!
It will be very interesting read the deal. It was extraordinarily costly to get something we had before the war, the opening of the Hormuz Strait. Trillions spent by consumers around the world gone forever.
50+ billion from US taxpayers for the ammo.
Abuse of our brave soldiers. Dead innocent people in Iran. The US credibility in tatters.
The best we can hope for would be an Obama like deal on the nuclear weapons that we already had but Trump cancelled and now we have to pay up to get it back.
The biggest wild card is that Israel is not on board and like Netanyahu has done 2 times now, in June 2025, and February 2026, sabotages Trumps peace deals with Iran.
It seems impossible now that Donald Trump will go for it a 3rd time after Netanyahu played him for a huge fool and he knows and the world knows.
+++++++++++
The global energy order is being reshaped.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1u7o9oi/iran_war_permanently_altered_the_global_economy/
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https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce8pyyz5e0ro
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/15/tallying-the-global-cost-of-the-us-israel-war-against-iran
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Iran War Cost Tracker
Estimated U.S. Taxpayer Spending
Based on the Pentagon's briefing to Congress: $11.3B for the first 6 days, plus $1B/day ongoing
Total Estimated U.S. Cost
$113,300,000,000
$11.3B first 6 days (Pentagon → Congress) + $1B/day ongoing
❙❙Counter stopped June 16, 2026
Over 108 days, the war in Iran cost U.S. taxpayers an estimated $113.3 billion — counting from the first strike on February 28 through June 16, 2026. The clock has been stopped and the count preserved as a record.
CNN has seen a draft of the agreement.
WOW! No wonder Donald Trump didn't show it.
Previous sanctions, ALL OF THEM immediately end.
Iran has access to it's 300 billion frozen assets.
Iran just agrees to not developing nuclear weapons with no verification process as the Obama deal had.
This is an Iran wish list granted.
Nothing in there about Iran's proxies. Nothing in there about Iran's ballistic missiles.
Clearly this was a desperate Donald Trump agreeing to anything to get the Strait of Hormuz open! Holy Cow!
