Previous thread:
Crude oil 5/24/26-6/12/26
55 responses |
Started by WxFollower - May 24, 2026, 12:56 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120426/
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I filled up for $3.39/gallon yesterday in Evansville, IN. This is incredible for the price to be that low with the futures price just above $3????
It's usually at least 50c higher. So the mark up in price is at historical lows right now. This is the reason why.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
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Updated
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This is just Indiana below. We've dropped $1.50 from the spike high at the start of May while the rest of the country has only dropped around $.50 above!!!
You can go to this link and put in your state or city:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
The average price in Evansville is still 17c higher than the $3.39 that I paid on the West Side which is why I jumped on it on the way back home after picking up our grand son, Cyrus on the West Side.
You can find the cheapest gas stations in your town or state too. HOLY COW, gas prices are less than $3 in some places in the state of Indiana right now! How can this be when the futures/cash price is still above $3????
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline
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There Indiana is on the price heat map. Lowest gas prices in the country for the first time ever! How are they selling gas for less than $3 in some spots when the cost is more than $3????
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/gas-taxes-state/
Indiana has HIGH gas taxes compared to most states at 55c/gallon! That's the 5th highest gas tax in the country!
For a short period, Indiana is paying a state tax of 0c on each gallon of gas.
AI Overview
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https://www.avalara.com/blog/en/north-america/2026/04/2026-gas-tax-holidays.html.html
Rising prices at the pump have inspired lawmakers in several states to suspend motor fuel taxes.
Gas tax holidays last made headlines in the United States in 2022, when gas prices soared due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a post-pandemic surge in demand, and other factors. Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New York, and Puerto Rico all declared gas tax holidays in 2022, while Colorado, Illinois, and Kentucky delayed scheduled gas tax hikes.
Indiana
On April 8, 2026, Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed an executive order establishing a 30-day gas tax holiday. The order suspended the state’s 7% sales tax on gasoline from April 8 through May 8, 2026, at which point the governor reevaluated the continued need for the gas tax holiday “based on the circumstances in the Middle East.”
On May 6, 2026, the governor extended the energy emergency until June 7, 2026.
On June 3, 2026, Governor Braun renewed the proclamation of energy emergency, extending the suspension of gas use tax and gasoline excise tax through July 7, 2026.
See Indiana Department of Revenue’s guidance for the gas use tax holiday for specifics.
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What is a gas tax holiday?
A gas tax holiday is a temporary suspension or reduction of taxes on motor fuel, usually at the state level. States may stop collecting per-gallon excise taxes, sales and use taxes on gasoline, or other fuel-related taxes, so drivers pay less at the pump for a limited time.
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I paid $3.09 at Sams on Friday evening! Indiana still looks like we have the cheapest gas in the country!
Shows how most things are relative and perspective can mean everything.
In January, that would have been the highest price in town.
In June, after being $1.50 higher than that 2 months ago, $3.09 seem cheap!!
Modestly higher open tonight. Maybe around +$1-2 higher.
That's about where it opened based on the bids/offers a minute before the open(so its not hard to make that prediction)
August crude is the new front month with July expiring last week.
Looks like that was actually had a gap higher on the open too. Still early.
In most markets, after the enormous drop like we've had an upside gap higher at this place and time is potentially VERY bullish!
Not surprising considering the 2 daily BULLISH candles that we had on Thursday and Friday.
Thursdays candle below
The Inverted Hammer Pattern appears at the bottom of a downtrend and features a small body with a long upper shadow and little to no lower shadow.
What Inverted Hammer Pattern Indicates: This pattern suggests that buyers attempted to push prices higher during the session.
Friday's candle below
The Dragonfly Doji is a single candlestick pattern with a very small body and a long lower shadow that appears at the bottom of a downtrend.
What Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern Indicates: It indicates that a stock's open, high, and close prices are all near the same level. Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern might seem similar to Hammer Pattern but Dragonfly Doji has no body, while Hammer has a small body at the top.
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metmike: Sunday Night's gap higher. The pattern this time does NOT feature the gap lower depicted below that is the start of the island gap formation but it does feature a gap higher, so far and that followed the 2 BULLISH formations to end last week. So it's a close enough fit to depict the current market's price action/psychology.
The Bullish Abandoned Baby is a three-candlestick pattern. It consists of a long bearish candle, followed by a doji candle that gaps down, and then a long bullish candle that gaps up.
What Bullish Abandoned Baby Pattern Indicates: This pattern signals a strong reversal and a significant shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
https://groww.in/blog/candlestick-patterns
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What makes this interesting is that we had a gap LOWER last Sunday Night, with the top of that gap at $81. That was a downside break away gap to start last week by the market seeing the peace deal and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The high tonight has been $78.14. Now we have a potentially very bullish gap just below and a very bearish gap that starts almost $3 higher. If we fill either gap, the interpretation flips as it turns into a "gap and crap" formation that often signals the opposite of a price gap that stays open.
An open gap is signaling a new paradigm of trading prices from a sudden change in the markets expectations.
When that gets filled, it's often an exhaustion of the psychology that caused the exuberance which resulted in the gap and means a reversal in the other direction.
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Despite that analysis being tons of fun, this market is still dominated by news which is often caused by things Donald Trump says and does. Nobody can predict that, not even Donald Trump.
Crude plunged fast immediately after 8pm.
8pm is when the Asian markets open up. It was either from that or else bearish news came out about the Strait of Hormuz opening. So the small gap earlier tonight was filled. Prices are down slightly here at 9:30 pm.
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June 23:
Filling the gap up quickly is a bearish gap and crap buying exhaustion but NEWS is still a big factor. However, the market has been dialing in a huge increase in supply later this year based on:
1. The Strait of Hormuz staying open
2. Lifting of sanctions of Iranian oil ADDING to previous supplies
It will take awhile to get back the lost production but Donald Trump has surrendered humanitarian, political, long term strategic and ethical objectives to both Iran and Russia to maximize crude gushing onto the global market to reverse the worst global energy crisis that he caused from his unjustified, illegal war of choice.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 10 years 2020, historical spike lower to negative price. NOT an error bar! Uptrend with a spike higher early in the Ukraine war. Downtrend thru 2024/25. Gap higher from Iran war. Spike up, then steep downtrend with a gap lower at the start of last week from the agreement and market seeing supplies gushing back on to the market.
2. 1 year: Downtrend ends with a solid low at the end of December as tensions in Iran built and the early bird oil traders began buying. Gap higher after the attack on Iran. Huge spike higher/THE top followed by a steepening down trend(much lower highs). Gap lower to start last week from NEWS of the Strait of Hormuz opening, along with Donald Trump allowing Iran and Russia to gush their oil freely on the market(no more political sanctions on those countries). Approaching the top of the gap from the start of the Iran war.
3. 1 week. Potential low and bottom formation late last week, with higher (gap) on Sunday Night from tensions with Iran over the weekend that was QUICKLY REJECTED 3 hours after the open and the downtrend resumed. Currently in limbo with a pause around temporary? support. Either a bear flag or temporary low if this area holds. Getting close enough to the upside break away gap for it to be significant, however with Donald Trump capitulating to both Iran and Russia to maximize the oil supply on the global market to reverse his energy crisis, it may overwhelm the bullish case. Iran can still do something to close the Strait of Hormuz to use their only trump card to punish the enemy more for his unprovoked, unjustified, illegal attack that had no cohesive plan or objective that left him vulnerable to Iran's secret weapon(that was already known to smart military leaders/advisors but not to the cognitively challenged man with a diseased brain trying to make himself an historical legend on a global scale at the expense of his country, Americans and the world)
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Speaking of that spike low into negative territory in April 2020. Here was the day we tracked it on MarketForum live!!! This might be our best thread ever on MarketForum history when it comes to suspense and profound history in the markets.
Scroll down and follow the excitement!!!
US crude tumbles to 18-year low
50 responses |
Started by metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:43 p.m.
Quiet week for the EIA report. Just under 10MMB drop on 5MMBPD net exports, more or less all from the SPR, which is getting near some kind of operational minimum.
Thanks very much, patrick!
Like you stated, SPR oil has dropped below the Biden withdrawals and is the lowest since the dot on the graph from 1983.
What many folks don't know is that Biden started gushing SPR oil on the market 6 months BEFORE the Ukraine War, partly because he was planning on the war(and telling Zelensky to refuse to negotiate on NATO with Putin), partly because of already high crude prices.
Also, the drop of 80 million barrels in just 3 months here in 2026 is a faster rate than any 3 months during the Biden withdrawals.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
.png)
"Partly" is doing heavy work. Post-pandemic oil production recovered more slowly than demand, causing the situation the SPR was created for.
Thanks patrick.
Good point except that your chart STARTS with the historical lows in 2020 so the observer is comparing prices after that with those record lows and NOT the rest of history.
Here's the big picture. Why didn't Bush/Obama release massive amounts of SPR oil in the past when prices were similar or higher than those in the late 2021 BEFORE the Ukraine War when Biden did it?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
.png)
patrick,
You weren't here posting then but we had may dozens of threads and 1,000+ posts about this where I showed that Joe Biden was calling the shots and telling Zelensky, starting in 2021 to stop negotiating with Putin because (he told Zelensky that) the US would arm Ukraine's soldiers with our powerful weapons and Zelensky/Ukraine would defeat Russia.
When all Putin wanted was a guarantee that NATO would not get the "Mother-land" Ukraine.
Giving Putin that would have prevented this entire war!
STOP THE WAR!!!
Started by metmike - April 4, 2023, midnight
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94338/
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UKRAINE TO JOIN NATO???????? :)
Started by 12345 - April 4, 2024, 3:57 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102957/
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OK, this is the link for all those discussions. It's not even debatable that Joe Biden did this.
Re: Re: Who speaks the truth? NOT NATO!
By metmike - March 27, 2024, 12:25 p.m.
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4:10 PM: CDT: 6-24-26: Additional link/posts with the smoking gun:
Re: Re: Chatgpt Fact checking MetMike
By metmike - Aug. 19, 2025, 7:44 a.m.
I actually posted this to you, joj as recently as earlier this year:
Putin's Lapdog in Chief
54 responses |
Started by joj - March 1, 2025, 8:09 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110205/
Re: Re: Putin's Lapdog in Chief
By metmike - March 1, 2025, 9:08 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110073/#110202
The Kremlin has previously characterized NATO’s eastward expansion as a direct security threat, arguing that Ukraine’s acceptance into the alliance could result in NATO troop movements on Russia’s borders.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Putin's Lapdog in Chief
By metmike - March 2, 2025, 7:36 a.m.
Biden, now totally convinced that he would win the war against Russia (similar to how he was convinced he would beat Trump in 2024 and had to finally be forced to step down) went all out to turn it into the bloodiest of battles, refusing to negotiate with Putin, as Zelensky changed his campaigning promise objective from getting peace for Ukrainians to defeating Russia in war, no matter what sacrifices and losses the Ukrainians would have to suffer.
Zelensky would end up watching the casualties over 3 years, turning his once robust army into an army no longer to defend Ukraine against the massively superior Russian army. As it got uglier and uglier for Ukraine, Biden and Zelensky, instead of negotiating for peace........doubled and tripled down. Sending long range missiles into Russia to further provoke Russia in an attempt to ESCALATE the war instead of seek peace.
Biden even blew up the Russian natural gas pipeline, to try to hurt Russia. The biggest state sponsored eco terrorist act/crime in the history of planet earth! But the NATO countries all looked the other way and even blamed it on Russia for awhile. Absurdly asserting that Russia would blow up its own pipeline when all Russia needed to do was shut off the gas themselves if that was there objective. Think about this dastardly crime and the fact that the NATO countries involved, the ones that should be prosecuting it, have instead covered it up and dismissed the investigation. WOW! Russia? What are they supposed to do after their pipeline was blown up?
NORD STREAM ~ RUSSIA ~ ETC,
35 responses |
Started by 12345 - Feb. 8, 2023, 8:26 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92953/
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So how did Joe Biden's promise to defeat Russia in the decision to intentionally fight the war with Russia turn out?
3 years ago, with the battlefield looking like this below, Biden/NATO and our MSM propaganda told us repeatedly that Ukraine would win this war. When there was a near 0% chance of that happening. Remember, this battle is being fought over letting NATO get Ukraine or not. Zelensky only needed to tell Russia NO NATO! but instead, he doubled and tripled down and insisted on fast tracking Ukraine into NATO and that Ukraine would win the war based on forcing Ukrainians to fight to the last drop of brave Ukrainian soldiers blood(200,000 of which decided to be SMART instead of dumb, brave and dead as they deserted the army and fight for NATO in the war). And Joe Biden/the US sending all the weapons they would need to win.
Even as Ukraine was decimated more and more, instead of peace, NATO and its puppet, Zelensky continue to insist on more war. When Trump entered the picture, trying to obtain peace, Zelensky, NATO and the diabolical US Military-Industrial-Political-Media complex put on a full court press to vilify and stop Trump from accomplishing his campaign promise of getting peace in Ukraine.
What do you think, looking at the map above.
Can you Ukraine win the war?
Or should they negotiate for peace?
Considering their current position, losing by the widest of margins after being led by the worst military leaders in the history of the human race (sorry but its true).........
Should we listen to those same military leaders and those same war cheerleaders and benefactors, with their self serving interests (NATO-Military-Industrial-Political-Media complex) that just want more endless war and offer no solution or peace?
Or should we give Donald Trump's peace a chance?
I made my choice on election day in November 2024. Basing my vote on Trump's promise to get peace for Ukraine.
Ironically, the president of Ukraine betrayed the Ukrainian people with his promise for peace to get elected but the president of the United States is following thru, exactly as he promised before being elected. Yet the message gatekeepers are obsessed with stopping the peacemaker and elevating the vainglorious, uncompassionate, NATO serving puppet. They are all USING Ukrainians for their self enriching agenda and doing the exact opposite of supporting Ukraine.
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The SPR is for temporary shortages. The rise to $80 before the crash of 2007/2008 at least appeared to be the result of rising demand and flat production.
It changed, as we all remember, but before all the neat advances in mapping & drilling, Peak Oil did seem to be upon us.
Nope. Nope. And Nope. I'm not going back down that rabbit hole.
When I left, I'd wandered into the NTR where y'all had "Proved" that poor innocent Donald Trump was being unjustly persecuted by the Justice Department (William Barr, AG) based on some incoherent posts by known misrepresenting sources that in the Federal investigations, cell phones had been lost or destroyed. Which was of course routine and expected, with everything backed up, as required.
If you have one recent, reliable, source for the theory that Joe Biden deked poor Vladimir Putin into attacking Ukraine, which Putin had been working to undermine for 10 years, I'll read it.
But ain't going into that old snake pit!
If you have one recent, reliable, source for the theory that Joe Biden deked poor Vladimir Putin into attacking Ukraine, which Putin had been working to undermine for 10 years, I'll read it.
But ain't going into that old snake pit!
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Thank goodness that we both agree strongly on that one, patrick!!!
That's why I just posted the previous links and would prefer to end it there and move forward on topics that actually matter in 2026, which both of us are mostly seeing in harmony.
We are really enjoying your contributions here too. On many things, it's best to agree to disagree and we can happily make this one of them.
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The best news is that it looks promising for the war in Ukraine to be ending soon! However, it's impossible to sort out what's true and what's propaganda on this topic!
Putin is rattled and Trump needs a win – this is the chance for Ukraine and her allies to force the collapse of Russia’s army and push back against its land grab
It changed, as we all remember, but before all the neat advances in mapping & drilling, Peak Oil did seem to be upon us.
For sure, patrick on the horizontal fracking industry.
As Larry knows too, it also changed how we trade ng gas during the hurricane season. Used to be the biggest spikes higher were from hurricane forecasts that threatened Gulf of Mexico production.
I just realized that adding to this post AFTER it existed(instead of using a new post, probably meant readers/patrick not seeing it)
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gas prices/Crude June 12, 2026
By metmike - June 24, 2026, 4:04 p.m.
Crude is only +$1, despite the problems in Iran escalating over the weekend, which one would think might threaten oil supplies coming thru the Hormuz Strait. Not even a gap higher compared to Friday's price range.
Crude has continued to UNDER perform on bullish news for the past 2 months.
Keep hearing the Strait of Hormuz is open. This link says 5 ships went through in the last 24 hours, vs a normal 60. Are they sneaking out?
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
And today is the EIA Petroleum report. Still w/d about the same at the top, but some builds at the bottom of the list.
Thanks, patrick!
Yes, that has seemed very odd to me also. The market doesn't care anymore about Strait of Hormuz being closed right now like it did a few months ago.
It's like the market assumes that Donald Trump is going to give Iran whatever he needs to in order to have it open before the November elections.
War's on, oils up $5, total stocks down 10MMB. Unlike last week, the top lines were fairly steady & the drops in the bottom.
Thanks, Patrick,
We're still using up SPR oil..............and selling it on the global market.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
While at the NATO summit, Trump also said he will give Ukraine the ability to make Patriot missile defense systems.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/08/world/live-news/iran-war-nato-summit-ukraine-trump
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One of the worst, overlooked elements to this is what Donald Trump is doing to our military. These are human beings that have families at home. They are serving him bravely because of their duty and commitment to the United States of America. He's abusing them like pawns for his unjustified, extremely UNPOPULAR war and self serving agenda.
Our country's first president and brilliant military leader is turning over in his grave!
Donald Trump compared to George Washington
Started by metmike - July 3, 2026, 6:47 a.m.
Back to trading the news. Interesting that Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran is begging him for a deal. Then he grants them their wish list because HE is the one begging and they still won't let him out.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year chart. After the initial gap higher at the start of the unjustified, illegal war with Iran, we had a huge spike up, followed by lower and lower highs, then a collapse lower that filled the gap after the market assumed crude supplies would soon be gushing into the market.
Crude/stock mkt futures Sun eve opens:
1. Crude +$2.50 (not that bad imho considering everything)
2. Stocks -0.2 to -0.4% (not that bad)
Thank you, Larry!
Yep, back in March/April we would be up $5+ right now!
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7:45 am:
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On beyond bonkers. (The source document for your last link)
That one backfired and caused crude to spike even higher!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 10 years: Look at that low in the Spring of 2020. That negative price happened!! Ukraine war top. 2 year down trend channel that Biden handed off to Trump. Iran war top.
2. 1 year: Filled the upside break away gap when the war started, now headed up again.
3. 1 month: Solid bottom. +$11 off the lows.
4. 1 week: Well above last weeks highs.
5. The market is back to trading NEWS from unreliable sources and climbing a wall of worry/uncertainty. Uncertainty can feed the bulls more than the bears. Donald Trump doesn't know what comes next or what he will do next and even that is extremely likely to change tomorrow.
"The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as 'THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,'" he added.
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Re: Re: Trumps funny peace prize
By metmike - July 13, 2026, 3:25 p.m.
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Donald Trump's diseased brain is getting farther and farther into LA LA LAND!
He has 2 separate brain diseases. 1 is psychiatric(delusions of grandeur) the other one is organic (rapidly advancing dementia). They will only get worse and worse.
Re: Re: Donald Trump's Diagnosis NAILED!
By metmike - June 12, 2026, 3:13 p.m.
Donald Trump just said at the news conference that he spoke with a bunch of kings and world leaders about the United States opening the Strait of Hormuz and they all told him that to repay him for opening the Strait of Hormuz, they will make massive investments in the United States.
At levels never seen before.
He is now is back to saying he doesn't think anybody should be able to charge a fee for allowing passage thru the Strait of Hormuz.
That had ZERO impact on the price of crude, unlike the spike up caused by his comment yesterday. The reason is likely because nobody really believes anything he says anymore(other than MAGA and Fox pretending for ratings of MAGA viewers). Yesterday's announcement showed how extraordinarily frustrated and impotent Donald Trump is with his #1 objective of getting the Strait of Hormuz open.
That NEW extreme statement that nobody believes told the market the Strait of Hormuz is probably not going to be open soon. Donald Trump reversing it today is just typical TACO Trump doing what he's best at......having to back down on loony threats and reverse his position in the real world.
However, it made exactly ZERO real world progress towards opening the Strait. What is did however, was do even more damage to Donald Trump's credibility which is what Iran's objective is.........create as many news opportunities for Donald Trump's mouth to embarrass him on a global scale and obliterate his party's support ahead of the November 2026 election.
We should note, that Iran's response is irrational here. They are willing to take on more pain in the form of more decimation from the world's most powerful military that has such an extreme advantage from the air. Supported by US tax payers and tens of thousands of brave patriotic soldiers being abused by Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth for their self serving agenda.
But leaders in Iran don't think like we do and certainly not like Donald Trump has expected them to think and act.
They don't care about their people. At this point, they care much less about physical damage to the structures in their country as they do or anything else than these 2 things.
1. Remaining in power
2. Doing damage to Donald Trump and the party supporting him at any cost to them, as long as they stay in power.
3. I will add the fact that Donald Trump decimating Iran had the complete opposite impact on the 90 million people in Iran that we wanted to accomplish BEFORE the war. THEY are the ones suffering the most. THEY know who started the war and who to blame for their suffering. They know it was unprovoked and unjustified. I don't know what the number is but it must be in the millions of Iranians that didn't hate the United States before the war and do now. That wish Donald Trump was dead.
How would you and I feel about a foreign country that did this to us? It was inevitable in the minds of anybody capable of seeing the consequences of these actions ahead of time.
EIA showing a 10.2 net build in total stocks this week. All bottom of the list stuff. with crude and gasoline slowly shrinking. Really low consumption & exports, especially in the Other oils.
And the exports:
Thanks much, patrick!
9pm: I don't know how this is possible!!!!
Yesterday, I paid $2.89 for gas on the West Side of Evansville on the way back from picking up our grandson, Cyrus from day care. There were a handful of other stations charging the same price. The price right now of the front month futures. August unleaded gas is $3.30. Our governor took off the state gas tax a few months ago which has resulted in us having the cheapest gas prices in the country. However how can the price at all those pumps be 41c LESS than the front month???
This graph below is updated daily.
1. National gas prices in blue have bumped up a bit n the last week because of the war in Iran.
2. Indiana gas prices in red (plunged lower after the gas tax was taken off) have also bumped up but are BELOW the front month August futures gas. Not sure how that can be.
3. The price of gas in Evansville, IN has actually continued to drop the past week, even as gas prices elsewhere have gone up. How is it possible for our prices to be this cheap????
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville
Indiana clearly has the cheapest gas in the country using the colors on the July 15, 2026 map below.
Again, how can gas be less than $3 at so many gas stations in the state of IN right now?
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4
Crude may have dropped back down to the fill the Iran war gap higher earlier this month but the price of gasoline never got close to the pre war price.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline
1. 10 years: Other than the brief spike higher during 2022, gas prices in recent months are well above gas prices during Biden's term.
2. 1 year: The May gasoline top came 2 months after the top in crude
3. 1 month: Up around 45c from the late June low. Gasoline prices at the pump have not increased that much.
The day that the Crude Price went negative!
Started by metmike - June 23, 2026, 9:31 a.m.
I figured out the answer to my question a few posts up about the how the cost of gas here in Evansville can be more than 40c lower than the front month futures. Clearly this gas is being sold AT A BIG LOSS compared to the current cost of gas for them to replace it.
I paid $2.89 last Tuesday on the West Side of Evansville, where most of the gas stations were advertising $2.89/gallon. I actually only needed 4 gallons but got gas at that price to confirm the hard to believe reality of the advertisement.
THERE IS A GLUT IN LOCAL SUPPLY that they need to get rid of!!! People are cutting way back driving because of the MUCH higher price of gasoline.
AI Overview
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To elaborate more on this unusual dynamic that caused local gas prices to be 40c UNDER the cost, so they were/are LOSING money.
1. Unlike speculators, retail gas outlets/regional distributors/gas stations actually deal in the product. Commodities (futures) markets actually exist for them.
2. It's with this market that they can lock in future prices and supply to assure the success of their business. An entity that needs XXX thousands of gasoline every month, for instance is not going to take the risk of a sudden supply or price disruption and will LOCK IN that supply/price for X months down the road instead of buying "hand to mouth".
3. This is something most traders understand already. However, contracts for entities actually taking or making delivery are different than those us speculators get in and out of on paper. If not, then 1 or the other side could get screwed, holding the bag(unleaded gas) so to speak.
4. When agreeing to taking delivery of XX thousand gallons of gas, in those contracts there IS A PENALTY for NOT taking delivery, just like there's A PENALTY for not delivering, or else it wouldn't work and both sides could just bail when conditions are better than when they made the contract.
5. In order to take delivery for next months gas, bought on contract, you must first use up last/this months gas to have room for it in your underground tanks.
6. In July 2026, with demand having plunged, the local gas stations underground tanks were not being depleted and had/have no room for next month's gas. That would be fine with an operation that just buys gas when they need it and doesn't buy when they don't need it.......which is NOT how this business operates, as described above. There's another month's worth of gas waiting to be delivered to tanks that are still full AND A HUGE PENALTY FOR EVERY DAY THEY DON'T TAKE DELIVERY!!!
7. The penalty is SO HUGE that it was/is greater than the losses of selling gas 40c below their cost to just get rid of the gas ASAP to lessen the even more costly penalty for not taking delivery of the gas the previously bought for this time frame.
8. It has to be this way for that business to work with maximum protection for both sides in the long run. Buyers are ensured the gas will be there. Sellers are ensured of a place for their production which can't just pile up forever when storage places get full.
9. When crude dropped to almost -$40, (negative) in the Spring of 2020, a dynamic similar to this happened. Numerous tankers loaded with crude with no place for it to go because demand had dried up from COVID. Storing it on tankers waiting for a home for it is very costly and many entities that contracted out to BUY that crude had no room for it in storage facilities that were already full. In many cases, they lost less money by selling the crude/crude contracts at a smaller loss then the loss for paying storage and/or paying the penalties for not taking delivery. This dynamic caused a large amount of crude transactions to happen in a brief period of time from panic selling of those trapped in order to get out.
The month before, unleaded gas had a similar spike lower but never made it close to negative territory.
The day that the Crude Price went negative!
Started by metmike - June 23, 2026, 9:31 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/121056/
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The price of gas in Evansville, IN is up slightly since I paid $2.89 this past Tuesday(4 days ago) but is still well below the cost to replace it and being sold at a loss to make room for the contracted gas they are being penalized for not taking delivery of.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville
Customize the charts below with 3 different choices/graphs!
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
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The closing price for the front month futures, August unleaded gas on Friday was $3.39/gallon.
This extreme Contango situation(cash much lower than front month futures) is also a reflection of how much the market is willing to pay entities to store gas for a couple of weeks because storage is almost full everywhere.
How much higher on the open? Will it be a gap.
Keep in mind that we've already bounced $15 from the lows and were +$3.5 on Friday, so maybe not that much? +$1?
Since we closed near the highs on Friday, not much higher will still be a gap higher.
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5:02: We got the gap higher just over $1+ and are +$2 but its early
We filled the small gap higher and are a tad lower right now. NEWS is the main determinant for price as it was for much of the last 4 months. After the initial huge spike higher, we noted that MORE bullish news had less and less impact and resulted in lower and lower highs..........until we made the lows, after filling the bullish, upside break away gap that occurred when the market opened after the war.
Filling gaps often reverses the signal(from bullish to bearish) when they serve as EXHAUSTION signals but it needs to be in short order, like within a few days of the gap, when they indicate that traders were not able to sustain the extreme buying(selling) at the new levels above(below) the gap.
Filling a gap after X months later, means the market was able to sustain those prices for X months which actually validates them to some extent, meaning they were NOT an exhaustion.
Filling a gap after X months later, in that case can serve as an area of support(resistance) for traders in the market that was hit with NEW information that caused the gap higher X months ago. There can be a NEW trading range defined ABOVE/BELOW the previous one with the gap defining the BOTTOM/TOP of it instead of suggesting going back to the pre gap trading range.
In this case, the market treated the gap as SUPPORT for the NEW trading range higher because the NEW dynamic, the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved.
Crude came down to fill the gap when it looked like the war in Iran was over. and the Strait would be open and oil would be gushing into the markets.
Each market and each situation is different. There is no "rule" that tells us how a market will react every time.
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1pm:
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There no denying the MAJOR role that Joe Biden played in this because of his intentional decision to go to war with Russia in Ukraine instead of just agreeing with Putin to not let NATO have Ukraine(Putin's demand)!
Biden really could have stopped it before it started, regardless of the fact that Putin is a diabolical psychopath. Sometimes, you only have 2 bad choices. In this case, Biden had a slightly bad choice and a catastrophically, historically bad choice and he picked the wrong one and his puppet, Zelensky was told to cut off the negotiations because the United States would equip his soldiers with all the equipment they needed to defeat Russia.
Never mind that Zelensky betrayed his country and sentenced 100s of thousands of his brave soldiers to a death sentence in a war of attrition with a country with 5 times as soldiers and a brilliant military strategist willing to get all his soldiers killed.
Zelensky was the worlds worst military strategist in my life time.
Until Donald Trump attacked Iran.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W.png)
Zelensky's choices before the war.
1. Agree not to join NATO and continue the peace. No harm to Ukraine and the world.
2. Not agree to that and fight this war.
Trump's choices before the war.
1. Agree with Iran's offer to reduce their enriched uranium, EXACTLY what Trump was asking for. No harm to the US or world, just benefits.
2. Follow Bibi Netanyahu/Israel's devious scheme which was sold to him as: Decimating Iran with bombs and win an easy victory with a quick unconditional surrender by Iran's leaders (then replace the leaders and let the people take over). Making Donald Trump an historical/legendary war hero that generations to come will recognize for finally taking out evil Iran.
EIA report is a lot like last week - shrinking crude & gasoline, piling up at the bottom of the list
Thanks, patrick!
Looks to me that the only thing that fell was SPR oil(to a new record low- so they are gushing it out and selling it to foreign customers at a huge profit) and a bit of kerosene.
Propane had a huge increase. What's going on there?
Why the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve matters amid US-Iran tensions
US oil reserves hit lowest level since 1983 amid growing tensions with Iran and global supply concerns.
Benchmark rises sharply over fears Houthi militia could strangle Saudi exports as US-Iran fighting intensifies
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Front month, September crude is up another $5+ and near life of contracts highs.
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Trump predicted grave consequences for Tehran if the Houthis remained on the offensive.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/23/donald-trump-iran-war-houthis-attacks-01009389
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President Donald Trump is trying to put more pressure on Tehran — but the regime isn’t budging, so far, and there’s no clear endgame for the war.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/22/trumps-air-war-iran-limit-01008948
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President Donald Trump and Iranian leaders have exchanged threats over civilian infrastructure as U.S. strikes persist amid escalating tensions.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Iran War 6/12/26+
By metmike - July 24, 2026, 9:50 a.m.
How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war
Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/
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Fake nuclear weapons threat justification:
Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)
Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/
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Donald Trump has committed blatant treason!!!!
Started by metmike - May 13, 2026, 8:16 a.m.
The latest on the war in Iran below. Scroll down from that post.
By WxFollower - July 25, 2026, 9:57 p.m.
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Crude and the stock market, having been trading the NEWS again recently are likely to open lower/higher based on this NEWS.
Hey Mike, Are you familiar with Hyperliquid crude oil perpetual futures? I just learned about it today. I was previously only familiar with the CME for official crude prices. Check out this Tweet that was sent early this morning, which by the way is way more than just “a few hours before CME opens” as you know:
“A very large 9 figure (allegedly Axios-linked insider) trader on hyperliquid futures just slammed a massive oil short position a few hours before CME opens today.It's coming.”
https://x.com/0xcoked/status/2081323066215313539?
Below is some info about Hyperliquid crude, which you can see had hardly any open interest and volume until just after the Iran War started. It trades 24/7 unlike the CME. So, does the Sunday afternoon Hyperliquid price control the Sun evening CME price?
Latest Hyperliquid WTI crude chart:
More on Hyperliquid crude. I’m still early in the learning stage. This was written 3/18/26:
Prashant Jha
Key Takeaways
Hyperliquid has hit a new milestone—but not for the reason many in crypto might expect.
The decentralized perpetual futures exchange has pushed its aggregated open interest to $1.43 billion, driven largely by a surge in oil trading rather than digital assets.
While traders often gravitate toward Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals, recent activity shows a clear shift toward traditional commodities—especially crude oil.
Unlike traditional exchanges that close on weekends, Hyperliquid's 24/7 perpetual markets allowed traders to react instantly.
That accessibility has turned the platform into a real-time venue for price discovery during off-market hours.
Traders increasingly expect 24/7 access,especially in a world where geopolitical events can move prices at any hour.
Hyperliquid's model bridges that gap, offering continuous exposure to both crypto and traditional assets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hyperliquid-hits-1-43b-oi-084709893.html
Holy Cow, Larry!
So what is that market trading at right now? Never mind. I just saw the posts before this last one. Thanks!
I had no clue of the existence of that place.
Hey Mike. I’m still in “Holy Cow” mode on this because I had never heard of it before this morning! I’m like ”what?/hugh?”
I’m not sure whether this link is actually to real-time, but it sure has the look of real-time:
https://hyperdash.com/asset/cl-hyperliquid
Yes, that’s real time and crude is trading -$5 or so lower than it was trading when it closed Friday based on me eyeballing on my IPad. Looking at the 7 day price chart.
Time to do more reasearch on this!
WOW!
2:45 pm: Looks like the stock market will open higher and natural gas near unchanged.
i don’t see any ag markets traded with this source.
That market came extremely close to predicting the open at 5pm CDT.
We got the huge gap lower, spike to over more than $6 lower and are around -$5 right now but its early.
Thanks, Mike.
Below is the Hyperliquid chart for this evening. It appears to me that it dropped ~$1.50 at the open (from ~$86.15 to ~$84.65. Do you agree? If so, I wonder if that was an adjustment toward the CME. What do you think? By the way, they’re currently both nearly identical at ~$84.13.
Agree totally, Larry!
That site did a good job getting most of the move right until the huge traders took over with the CME market and now its a follower!