Previous thread:
Crude oil 5/24/26-6/12/26
55 responses |
Started by WxFollower - May 24, 2026, 12:56 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120426/
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I filled up for $3.39/gallon yesterday in Evansville, IN. This is incredible for the price to be that low with the futures price just above $3????
It's usually at least 50c higher. So the mark up in price is at historical lows right now. This is the reason why.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
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Updated
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This is just Indiana below. We've dropped $1.50 from the spike high at the start of May while the rest of the country has only dropped around $.50 above!!!
You can go to this link and put in your state or city:
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
The average price in Evansville is still 17c higher than the $3.39 that I paid on the West Side which is why I jumped on it on the way back home after picking up our grand son, Cyrus on the West Side.
You can find the cheapest gas stations in your town or state too. HOLY COW, gas prices are less than $3 in some places in the state of Indiana right now! How can this be when the futures/cash price is still above $3????
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville
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https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gasoline
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There Indiana is on the price heat map. Lowest gas prices in the country for the first time ever! How are they selling gas for less than $3 in some spots when the cost is more than $3????
https://www.gasbuddy.com/gaspricemap?lat=38.822395&lng=-96.591588&z=4
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/gas-taxes-state/
Indiana has HIGH gas taxes compared to most states at 55c/gallon! That's the 5th highest gas tax in the country!
For a short period, Indiana is paying a state tax of 0c on each gallon of gas.
AI Overview
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https://www.avalara.com/blog/en/north-america/2026/04/2026-gas-tax-holidays.html.html
Rising prices at the pump have inspired lawmakers in several states to suspend motor fuel taxes.
Gas tax holidays last made headlines in the United States in 2022, when gas prices soared due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a post-pandemic surge in demand, and other factors. Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New York, and Puerto Rico all declared gas tax holidays in 2022, while Colorado, Illinois, and Kentucky delayed scheduled gas tax hikes.
Indiana
On April 8, 2026, Indiana Governor Mike Braun signed an executive order establishing a 30-day gas tax holiday. The order suspended the state’s 7% sales tax on gasoline from April 8 through May 8, 2026, at which point the governor reevaluated the continued need for the gas tax holiday “based on the circumstances in the Middle East.”
On May 6, 2026, the governor extended the energy emergency until June 7, 2026.
On June 3, 2026, Governor Braun renewed the proclamation of energy emergency, extending the suspension of gas use tax and gasoline excise tax through July 7, 2026.
See Indiana Department of Revenue’s guidance for the gas use tax holiday for specifics.
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What is a gas tax holiday?
A gas tax holiday is a temporary suspension or reduction of taxes on motor fuel, usually at the state level. States may stop collecting per-gallon excise taxes, sales and use taxes on gasoline, or other fuel-related taxes, so drivers pay less at the pump for a limited time.
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I paid $3.09 at Sams on Friday evening! Indiana still looks like we have the cheapest gas in the country!
Shows how most things are relative and perspective can mean everything.
In January, that would have been the highest price in town.
In June, after being $1.50 higher than that 2 months ago, $3.09 seem cheap!!
Modestly higher open tonight. Maybe around +$1-2 higher.
That's about where it opened based on the bids/offers a minute before the open(so its not hard to make that prediction)
August crude is the new front month with July expiring last week.
Looks like that was actually had a gap higher on the open too. Still early.
In most markets, after the enormous drop like we've had an upside gap higher at this place and time is potentially VERY bullish!
Not surprising considering the 2 daily BULLISH candles that we had on Thursday and Friday.
Thursdays candle below
The Inverted Hammer Pattern appears at the bottom of a downtrend and features a small body with a long upper shadow and little to no lower shadow.
What Inverted Hammer Pattern Indicates: This pattern suggests that buyers attempted to push prices higher during the session.
Friday's candle below
The Dragonfly Doji is a single candlestick pattern with a very small body and a long lower shadow that appears at the bottom of a downtrend.
What Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern Indicates: It indicates that a stock's open, high, and close prices are all near the same level. Dragonfly Doji Bullish Pattern might seem similar to Hammer Pattern but Dragonfly Doji has no body, while Hammer has a small body at the top.
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metmike: Sunday Night's gap higher. The pattern this time does NOT feature the gap lower depicted below that is the start of the island gap formation but it does feature a gap higher, so far and that followed the 2 BULLISH formations to end last week. So it's a close enough fit to depict the current market's price action/psychology.
The Bullish Abandoned Baby is a three-candlestick pattern. It consists of a long bearish candle, followed by a doji candle that gaps down, and then a long bullish candle that gaps up.
What Bullish Abandoned Baby Pattern Indicates: This pattern signals a strong reversal and a significant shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
https://groww.in/blog/candlestick-patterns
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What makes this interesting is that we had a gap LOWER last Sunday Night, with the top of that gap at $81. That was a downside break away gap to start last week by the market seeing the peace deal and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The high tonight has been $78.14. Now we have a potentially very bullish gap just below and a very bearish gap that starts almost $3 higher. If we fill either gap, the interpretation flips as it turns into a "gap and crap" formation that often signals the opposite of a price gap that stays open.
An open gap is signaling a new paradigm of trading prices from a sudden change in the markets expectations.
When that gets filled, it's often an exhaustion of the psychology that caused the exuberance which resulted in the gap and means a reversal in the other direction.
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Despite that analysis being tons of fun, this market is still dominated by news which is often caused by things Donald Trump says and does. Nobody can predict that, not even Donald Trump.
Crude plunged fast immediately after 8pm.
8pm is when the Asian markets open up. It was either from that or else bearish news came out about the Strait of Hormuz opening. So the small gap earlier tonight was filled. Prices are down slightly here at 9:30 pm.
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June 23:
Filling the gap up quickly is a bearish gap and crap buying exhaustion but NEWS is still a big factor. However, the market has been dialing in a huge increase in supply later this year based on:
1. The Strait of Hormuz staying open
2. Lifting of sanctions of Iranian oil ADDING to previous supplies
It will take awhile to get back the lost production but Donald Trump has surrendered humanitarian, political, long term strategic and ethical objectives to both Iran and Russia to maximize crude gushing onto the global market to reverse the worst global energy crisis that he caused from his unjustified, illegal war of choice.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 10 years 2020, historical spike lower to negative price. NOT an error bar! Uptrend with a spike higher early in the Ukraine war. Downtrend thru 2024/25. Gap higher from Iran war. Spike up, then steep downtrend with a gap lower at the start of last week from the agreement and market seeing supplies gushing back on to the market.
2. 1 year: Downtrend ends with a solid low at the end of December as tensions in Iran built and the early bird oil traders began buying. Gap higher after the attack on Iran. Huge spike higher/THE top followed by a steepening down trend(much lower highs). Gap lower to start last week from NEWS of the Strait of Hormuz opening, along with Donald Trump allowing Iran and Russia to gush their oil freely on the market(no more political sanctions on those countries). Approaching the top of the gap from the start of the Iran war.
3. 1 week. Potential low and bottom formation late last week, with higher (gap) on Sunday Night from tensions with Iran over the weekend that was QUICKLY REJECTED 3 hours after the open and the downtrend resumed. Currently in limbo with a pause around temporary? support. Either a bear flag or temporary low if this area holds. Getting close enough to the upside break away gap for it to be significant, however with Donald Trump capitulating to both Iran and Russia to maximize the oil supply on the global market to reverse his energy crisis, it may overwhelm the bullish case. Iran can still do something to close the Strait of Hormuz to use their only trump card to punish the enemy more for his unprovoked, unjustified, illegal attack that had no cohesive plan or objective that left him vulnerable to Iran's secret weapon(that was already known to smart military leaders/advisors but not to the cognitively challenged man with a diseased brain trying to make himself an historical legend on a global scale at the expense of his country, Americans and the world)
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Speaking of that spike low into negative territory in April 2020. Here was the day we tracked it on MarketForum live!!! This might be our best thread ever on MarketForum history when it comes to suspense and profound history in the markets.
Scroll down and follow the excitement!!!
US crude tumbles to 18-year low
50 responses |
Started by metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:43 p.m.
Quiet week for the EIA report. Just under 10MMB drop on 5MMBPD net exports, more or less all from the SPR, which is getting near some kind of operational minimum.
Thanks very much, patrick!
Like you stated, SPR oil has dropped below the Biden withdrawals and is the lowest since the dot on the graph from 1983.
What many folks don't know is that Biden started gushing SPR oil on the market 6 months BEFORE the Ukraine War, partly because he was planning on the war(and telling Zelensky to refuse to negotiate on NATO with Putin), partly because of already high crude prices.
Also, the drop of 80 million barrels in just 3 months here in 2026 is a faster rate than any 3 months during the Biden withdrawals.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
.png)
"Partly" is doing heavy work. Post-pandemic oil production recovered more slowly than demand, causing the situation the SPR was created for.
Thanks patrick.
Good point except that your chart STARTS with the historical lows in 2020 so the observer is comparing prices after that with those record lows and NOT the rest of history.
Here's the big picture. Why didn't Bush/Obama release massive amounts of SPR oil in the past when prices were similar or higher than those in the late 2021 BEFORE the Ukraine War when Biden did it?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
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patrick,
You weren't here posting then but we had may dozens of threads and 1,000+ posts about this where I showed that Joe Biden was calling the shots and telling Zelensky, starting in 2021 to stop negotiating with Putin because (he told Zelensky that) the US would arm Ukraine's soldiers with our powerful weapons and Zelensky/Ukraine would defeat Russia.
When all Putin wanted was a guarantee that NATO would not get the "Mother-land" Ukraine.
Giving Putin that would have prevented this entire war!
STOP THE WAR!!!
Started by metmike - April 4, 2023, midnight
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94338/
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UKRAINE TO JOIN NATO???????? :)
Started by 12345 - April 4, 2024, 3:57 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102957/
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OK, this is the link for all those discussions. It's not even debatable that Joe Biden did this.
Re: Re: Who speaks the truth? NOT NATO!
By metmike - March 27, 2024, 12:25 p.m.
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4:10 PM: CDT: 6-24-26: Additional link/posts with the smoking gun:
Re: Re: Chatgpt Fact checking MetMike
By metmike - Aug. 19, 2025, 7:44 a.m.
I actually posted this to you, joj as recently as earlier this year:
Putin's Lapdog in Chief
54 responses |
Started by joj - March 1, 2025, 8:09 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110205/
Re: Re: Putin's Lapdog in Chief
By metmike - March 1, 2025, 9:08 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110073/#110202
The Kremlin has previously characterized NATO’s eastward expansion as a direct security threat, arguing that Ukraine’s acceptance into the alliance could result in NATO troop movements on Russia’s borders.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Putin's Lapdog in Chief
By metmike - March 2, 2025, 7:36 a.m.
Biden, now totally convinced that he would win the war against Russia (similar to how he was convinced he would beat Trump in 2024 and had to finally be forced to step down) went all out to turn it into the bloodiest of battles, refusing to negotiate with Putin, as Zelensky changed his campaigning promise objective from getting peace for Ukrainians to defeating Russia in war, no matter what sacrifices and losses the Ukrainians would have to suffer.
Zelensky would end up watching the casualties over 3 years, turning his once robust army into an army no longer to defend Ukraine against the massively superior Russian army. As it got uglier and uglier for Ukraine, Biden and Zelensky, instead of negotiating for peace........doubled and tripled down. Sending long range missiles into Russia to further provoke Russia in an attempt to ESCALATE the war instead of seek peace.
Biden even blew up the Russian natural gas pipeline, to try to hurt Russia. The biggest state sponsored eco terrorist act/crime in the history of planet earth! But the NATO countries all looked the other way and even blamed it on Russia for awhile. Absurdly asserting that Russia would blow up its own pipeline when all Russia needed to do was shut off the gas themselves if that was there objective. Think about this dastardly crime and the fact that the NATO countries involved, the ones that should be prosecuting it, have instead covered it up and dismissed the investigation. WOW! Russia? What are they supposed to do after their pipeline was blown up?
NORD STREAM ~ RUSSIA ~ ETC,
35 responses |
Started by 12345 - Feb. 8, 2023, 8:26 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92953/
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So how did Joe Biden's promise to defeat Russia in the decision to intentionally fight the war with Russia turn out?
3 years ago, with the battlefield looking like this below, Biden/NATO and our MSM propaganda told us repeatedly that Ukraine would win this war. When there was a near 0% chance of that happening. Remember, this battle is being fought over letting NATO get Ukraine or not. Zelensky only needed to tell Russia NO NATO! but instead, he doubled and tripled down and insisted on fast tracking Ukraine into NATO and that Ukraine would win the war based on forcing Ukrainians to fight to the last drop of brave Ukrainian soldiers blood(200,000 of which decided to be SMART instead of dumb, brave and dead as they deserted the army and fight for NATO in the war). And Joe Biden/the US sending all the weapons they would need to win.
Even as Ukraine was decimated more and more, instead of peace, NATO and its puppet, Zelensky continue to insist on more war. When Trump entered the picture, trying to obtain peace, Zelensky, NATO and the diabolical US Military-Industrial-Political-Media complex put on a full court press to vilify and stop Trump from accomplishing his campaign promise of getting peace in Ukraine.
What do you think, looking at the map above.
Can you Ukraine win the war?
Or should they negotiate for peace?
Considering their current position, losing by the widest of margins after being led by the worst military leaders in the history of the human race (sorry but its true).........
Should we listen to those same military leaders and those same war cheerleaders and benefactors, with their self serving interests (NATO-Military-Industrial-Political-Media complex) that just want more endless war and offer no solution or peace?
Or should we give Donald Trump's peace a chance?
I made my choice on election day in November 2024. Basing my vote on Trump's promise to get peace for Ukraine.
Ironically, the president of Ukraine betrayed the Ukrainian people with his promise for peace to get elected but the president of the United States is following thru, exactly as he promised before being elected. Yet the message gatekeepers are obsessed with stopping the peacemaker and elevating the vainglorious, uncompassionate, NATO serving puppet. They are all USING Ukrainians for their self enriching agenda and doing the exact opposite of supporting Ukraine.
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The SPR is for temporary shortages. The rise to $80 before the crash of 2007/2008 at least appeared to be the result of rising demand and flat production.
It changed, as we all remember, but before all the neat advances in mapping & drilling, Peak Oil did seem to be upon us.
Nope. Nope. And Nope. I'm not going back down that rabbit hole.
When I left, I'd wandered into the NTR where y'all had "Proved" that poor innocent Donald Trump was being unjustly persecuted by the Justice Department (William Barr, AG) based on some incoherent posts by known misrepresenting sources that in the Federal investigations, cell phones had been lost or destroyed. Which was of course routine and expected, with everything backed up, as required.
If you have one recent, reliable, source for the theory that Joe Biden deked poor Vladimir Putin into attacking Ukraine, which Putin had been working to undermine for 10 years, I'll read it.
But ain't going into that old snake pit!
If you have one recent, reliable, source for the theory that Joe Biden deked poor Vladimir Putin into attacking Ukraine, which Putin had been working to undermine for 10 years, I'll read it.
But ain't going into that old snake pit!
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Thank goodness that we both agree strongly on that one, patrick!!!
That's why I just posted the previous links and would prefer to end it there and move forward on topics that actually matter in 2026, which both of us are mostly seeing in harmony.
We are really enjoying your contributions here too. On many things, it's best to agree to disagree and we can happily make this one of them.
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The best news is that it looks promising for the war in Ukraine to be ending soon! However, it's impossible to sort out what's true and what's propaganda on this topic!
Putin is rattled and Trump needs a win – this is the chance for Ukraine and her allies to force the collapse of Russia’s army and push back against its land grab
It changed, as we all remember, but before all the neat advances in mapping & drilling, Peak Oil did seem to be upon us.
For sure, patrick on the horizontal fracking industry.
As Larry knows too, it also changed how we trade ng gas during the hurricane season. Used to be the biggest spikes higher were from hurricane forecasts that threatened Gulf of Mexico production.
I just realized that adding to this post AFTER it existed(instead of using a new post, probably meant readers/patrick not seeing it)
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Gas prices/Crude June 12, 2026
By metmike - June 24, 2026, 4:04 p.m.
Crude is only +$1, despite the problems in Iran escalating over the weekend, which one would think might threaten oil supplies coming thru the Hormuz Strait. Not even a gap higher compared to Friday's price range.
Crude has continued to UNDER perform on bullish news for the past 2 months.
Keep hearing the Strait of Hormuz is open. This link says 5 ships went through in the last 24 hours, vs a normal 60. Are they sneaking out?
https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com/
And today is the EIA Petroleum report. Still w/d about the same at the top, but some builds at the bottom of the list.
Thanks, patrick!
Yes, that has seemed very odd to me also. The market doesn't care anymore about Strait of Hormuz being closed right now like it did a few months ago.
It's like the market assumes that Donald Trump is going to give Iran whatever he needs to in order to have it open before the November elections.
War's on, oils up $5, total stocks down 10MMB. Unlike last week, the top lines were fairly steady & the drops in the bottom.
Thanks, Patrick,
We're still using up SPR oil..............and selling it on the global market.
https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts
While at the NATO summit, Trump also said he will give Ukraine the ability to make Patriot missile defense systems.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/08/world/live-news/iran-war-nato-summit-ukraine-trump
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One of the worst, overlooked elements to this is what Donald Trump is doing to our military. These are human beings that have families at home. They are serving him bravely because of their duty and commitment to the United States of America. He's abusing them like pawns for his unjustified, extremely UNPOPULAR war and self serving agenda.
Our country's first president and brilliant military leader is turning over in his grave!
Donald Trump compared to George Washington
Started by metmike - July 3, 2026, 6:47 a.m.
Back to trading the news. Interesting that Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran is begging him for a deal. Then he grants them their wish list because HE is the one begging and they still won't let him out.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
1. 1 year chart. After the initial gap higher at the start of the unjustified, illegal war with Iran, we had a huge spike up, followed by lower and lower highs, then a collapse lower that filled the gap after the market assumed crude supplies would soon be gushing into the market.
