Weather-UPDATED LINKS
56 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

FLASH DROUGHT IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CORNBELT:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

++++++++++=

RAINS THE PAST 72 HOURS ON 6-23-24

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#105164


One of the biggest problems has been TOO MUCH rain in the Upper Midwest.

This is the rain from the last week as of June 21, 2024

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly


Rains forecast for the next week:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126



Rainfall the past week/7 days: June 19, 2024

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly


Previous week thru June 12, 2024



Recent rain amounts:

weathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

+++++++++++++++

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


New radar product below          

 https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NC45OCwzNy4wMl0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo0fSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++NY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
 Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.htmlConus Radar Very High Resolution


Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Comments
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
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1. Weather map now.

2. In 24 hours and

3. In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126





By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  Day 3 outlook

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                          


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Updated daily below:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/mtd_cen/month.pperc.png

DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


Last week as of June 17, 2024-FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CORNBELT BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORNBELT!!!

PREVIOUS WEEK:


2 weeks ago:


As of March 12, 2024


January 30, 2024 below




DECEMBER 12, 2023 below


NOVEMBER 14, 2023




October 17, 2023      



August, 2023, BELOW

April 18, 2023-1 year ago:


DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022-After a long lived La Nina-BEFORE EL NINO wiped out much of the drought OUT WEST the Winter of 2022/23!









         Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!

Image

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
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Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m

         

EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
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Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly    

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php


Great discussion below:

Soil Temperature and Corn Emergence

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/soil_temp_corn_emergence.html

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

Precip below..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.png

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:29 p.m.
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@CraigSolberg

Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)

ImageImage

By metmike - March 10, 2023, 1:05 a.m.
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More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Drought Monitor for conus


On the other side, that contradicts the truth,  those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.


‘Unrivaled’ Storm Threatens California With Floods

Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/us/california-weather-rain-storm-flood.html


By metmike - March 23, 2023, 1:14 p.m.
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Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.

This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!

Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?

That doesn't sell!

This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the drought....is over!

Climate change INCREASES precip!

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


                                    


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:18 p.m.
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https://graphs.water-data.com/ucsnowpack/

Snowpack is 150.19% of the May 1st average.

By metmike - May 4, 2023, 9:44 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.

This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast. 

There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably. 

Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get. 

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/about/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freese-Notis

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2023, 2:36 p.m.
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Over 1,000 severe storm reports yesterday/8-7-23

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98002/#98044

This is incredible for August which is NOT severe weather season!!!  Just 1 weak tornado in KS.


Yesterday's Storm Reports (20230807 1200 UTC - 20230808 1159 UTC) (Print Version)      

        < 230806 Reports                 230808 Reports >      
Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 9, 2023, 1:44 p.m.
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As long as the NAO stays this positive, cold air will find it very difficult to penetrate very far south and to stay very long!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

++++++++++++++++++

Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-north-atlantic-oscillation


By metmike - Dec. 25, 2023, 12:28 a.m.
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                Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan             

                            Started by WxFollower - Dec. 20, 2023, 9:19 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/

            


By metmike - Dec. 28, 2023, 10:21 a.m.
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Although the models were milder overnight, the Greenland block type anomaly in 2 weeks suggests a very solid cold air connection by mid January.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101515


Supporting that is the NEGATIVE AO and NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101471

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2024, 11:06 a.m.
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The much colder outlook described in late December continues to play out in the forecast:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100525/#101558

                Snow event 1-6-2024                        

                Started by metmike - Jan. 2, 2024, 1:21 p.m.    

        https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101595/

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2024, 9:05 a.m.
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We're focusing on the specific metrics of the extreme weather in this pattern here:

               

 Winter Storms/COLD week of 1-7-24+            

                            Started by metmike - Jan. 7, 2024, 9:57 p.m.    

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101628/

 

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2024, 4:06 a.m.
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                Millions in California face historic rain            

                            Started by metmike - Feb. 5, 2024, 5:04 p.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/#102176

Outside of the fairly localized extreme event in the high population, Los Angeles area almost a week ago, these  atmospheric river events from the Natural El Nino have blessed California with wonderful beneficial rains.

Most places will gladly take a bit more of the exact same events(absent the tiny % of area with the extreme rains) with only a very tiny reservoir close to capacity. 

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain

+++++++++++++

By metmike - March 22, 2024, 2:04 p.m.
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                Early planting issues 3-20-24            

                            12 responses |               

                Started by metmike - March 20, 2024, 12:22 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102729/

By metmike - March 25, 2024, 3:01 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

·

CPC predicts spring/early summer (April-June) in the U.S. Corn Belt is likely to be warmer than normal with normal to above-normal precipitation chances. This forecast covers planting through early development of the U.S. summer crops.

ImageImage

By metmike - March 31, 2024, 11:23 a.m.
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Tracking an early April snowstorm in the Northeast:

                Historic -NAO intensity coming Mar 31 through early April            

                            Started by WxFollower - March 29, 2024, 4:41 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102861/

By metmike - April 4, 2024, 2:48 a.m.
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                Stormy weather April 1-5, 2024           

                            14 responses |      

                Started by metmike - April 1, 2024, 6:34 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102905/

By metmike - April 8, 2024, 11:07 a.m.
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                       Total Solar Eclipse Day-April 8, 2024!!

                            16 responses |           

                                            Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 3:38 p.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102975/

By metmike - April 17, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
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                Severe wx week of 4-14-24                      

                                           Started by metmike - April 13, 2024, 1:26 p.m.  

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103145/

By metmike - April 26, 2024, 1:44 p.m.
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By metmike - April 26, 2024, 3:32 p.m.
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By metmike - April 29, 2024, 2:39 p.m.
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Bumping to the top. MarketForum now has lighting loading time speeds!

By metmike - April 29, 2024, 3:06 p.m.
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                Re: Re: UAH March-global temperature                                                    

                By metmike - April 14, 2024, 3:01 p.m.            

                                        

Temperatures this past Winter:

90 day periods-going backward

1. Jan-Feb-Mar

2. Dec-Jan-Feb

3. Nov-Dec-Jan

++++++++++

30 day periods-going forward

4. Nov 2023

5. Dec 2023

6. Jan 2024-only month to feature major cold

7. Feb 2024

8. March 2024


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


90 day periods


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

30 day periods







By metmike - May 1, 2024, 10:08 a.m.
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Wet in the Midwest but not excessive the next week.

VERY warm in the southeastern 1/3rd........but much cooler later in week 2(back to average).

Scroll down from the top to see the latest updates on every forecast weather map.

By metmike - May 2, 2024, 10 a.m.
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By metmike - May 6, 2024, 12:58 p.m.
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Severe weather May 6-7, 2024+

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103789/


UPDATED:

                Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024            

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103838/


By metmike - May 8, 2024, 1:34 p.m.
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Weather Effects on Expected
Corn and Soybean Yields

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/36651/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=884.4

By Jim_M - May 13, 2024, 2:33 p.m.
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It took almost a week for me to get to my lawn because the rain never seems to stop.  My grass looks good though.  I noticed a couple brave farmers were out working some wet (small) fields

By metmike - May 13, 2024, 4:56 p.m.
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Thanks, Jim!

Ohio was actually the state farthest AHEAD of the average corn planting pace:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103397/#103985

By metmike - May 20, 2024, 6:13 p.m.
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Rains the last 7 days:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/


% average below:


By metmike - May 20, 2024, 6:28 p.m.
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By metmike - May 28, 2024, 2:36 p.m.
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By metmike - June 1, 2024, 11:03 a.m.
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Welcome to June, 2024!

What will the upper level ridge in the West, to the Plains do late in the 2 week period?

Will it shift into the Midwest and turn the weather hot/dry, which is a potential La Nina Summer analog?

This was the 500mb map for June 15th on the last 0z European Ensemble.

By 12345 - June 1, 2024, 11:52 a.m.
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I WATCHED A FEW VIDEOS ON YT. THE 10 DAY FORECASTS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER.  SOME NASTY WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST

By metmike - June 2, 2024, 5:23 a.m.
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Jean,

I'm not sure what qualifies for nasty but after a few more days of some wet weather in the Midwest(not too severe), it turns VERY quiet and unseasonable cool in the Midwest late in week 1, especially in your location, Ohio. That pleasant weather should last for a full week. 

However, I'm seeing strong signals for a pattern change late in week 2 with the big upper ridge in the West shifting eastward into the Plains.

The cool and mostly dry weather should start heating up in mid June!

Extended weather:


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

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Check out these CDD maps for the next 2 weeks from the just updated 0z European Ensemble model in purple on the right. 

1. The Pacific region: normal increases slowly from just 1.5 to 2.5 as seen with the green line on the right during the 2 weeks below. Residential cooling demand can spike up like this during heat waves but is usually MUCH, MUCH less than the Midwest, East and South where the overall population is greater and hot/HUMID weather is more common. Heat waves in the West have MUCH lower humidities than in the East(but this contributes to wildfires). During this upcoming week, near record heat out West will briefly spike the CDDs to 7 which is around 4 times the normal. It stays hot out there in week 2 as the heat shifts farther east

2. The Midwest region on the 2nd map sees an average increase in CDDs (in green on the right) from 2.5 to an increasingly substantial 6 by mid June.  After a very brief spike to 9 to start this week, temps plunge and CDDs are MUCH BELOW AVERAGE for an extended period but start recovering late in week 2.

3. This is the 45 day outlook for the entire country from the last European model run late last week.  You can see how the first 2 weeks look more like the Midwest's signature because the Midwest counts so much more than the West/Pacific. What stands out is the rapidly building heat! Temps go ABOVE average during mid month and stay sustained WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THRU MID-JULY.  This is POTENTIALLY bullish NG AND grains.
4. Mid June Upper levels

5. Drought monitor: Great shape everywhere........except KS that will get hurt in late June with intense heat.
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45 days for entire country below:

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4. Upper levels mid June with individual ensembles from Canadian model. Upper level ridge shifts east.  How strong? What location? Hot and dry will become a worry in the 2nd half of June for some locations!

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 18, 2024 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GE

5. Drought monitor: Midwest in great shape overall but NOT, KS. KS wheat which is filling will likely  get hurt in late June with the new pattern. 

Last week as of May 28, 2024-no drought in California from the Winter El Nino. Most drought in the Midwest is wiped out completely!


DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

By 12345 - June 2, 2024, 11:07 a.m.
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THE LATE PLANTED CROPS, IN MY NECCO-DA-WOODS, ARE GONNA NEED RAIN, WHEN THAT HEAT ARRIVES.                              

By metmike - June 8, 2024, 2:23 p.m.
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Here come da HEAT, starting in the middle of next week! Afterwards, that will define the rest of the month with the intensity and location moving around. 

Rain amounts in some areas will be deficient and soil moisture, which is wonderful, almost everywhere will be drying up under the heat.

The 75% G/E first corn rating was a big factor for fund selling early in June!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104538

The next rest of June is going to start featuring heat with some areas drying up(especially the Eastern Cornbelt).......other areas will have enough rain to do well.......grow fast in the vegetative state with the heat accumulating Growing Degree Days for corn.

This was the last 12z GEFS run for total rains the next 384 hours.

Light blue is 2+ inches.

                                    


            

                

By metmike - June 12, 2024, 7:01 p.m.
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Rains the next 2 weeks on the last 12z European model.

Wimpy in the Eastern Cornbelt, along with heat )-:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104857

By 12345 - June 12, 2024, 8:11 p.m.
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Flash Flood Emergency In South Florida

IN THE '70 ERA, WHILE I LIVING IN W.P.B. FL. ~ IT WAS A BIBLICAL RAIN EVENT.  IT RAINED EVERY DAY, FOR 40 DAYS.  THE ALLIGATORS WERE BEING TAKEN OFF THE HIGHWAYS... I HAD WALKING CATFISH IN MY CARPORT, BUT... THE SADDEST THING? THE CATTLE!!  THEY WERE STUCK IN THE PASTURES!!  SHARPSHOOTERS IN HELICOPTERS SHOT THEM... THERE WAS NO VIABLE WAY TO RESCUE THEM!  UGH!!

NATURE CAN BE HORRIDLY CRUEL

By metmike - June 13, 2024, 12:42 a.m.
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There they go again in blaming climate change again for this fake "1 in 1,000 year" event.

Almost 4 inches of rain in 1 hour. An all time record for the amount of rain in just an hour............FOR THIS CITY. 

Yes, that's a lot of rain and warmer global temperatures probably contributed at least +7% to that total but its not even close to a record for the United States.

Not even in the top 10. Probably in the top 100.

What is the Most Rain to Ever Fall in One Minute or One Hour?

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/what-is-the-most-rain-to-ever-fall-in-one-minute-or-one-hour.html

I'll start a new thread just on this tomorrow to show how absurd it is to call this a 1 in 1,000 year event.

++++++++++++

It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html

The GoldenRule

 Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:

The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.

Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.   

+++++++++++

These people cherry pick every extreme, as if there were no extremes in the past and tie them to climate change. 



Another 1 in 1,000 year rain
Started by metmike - April 14, 2023, 2:55 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94542/

By metmike - June 13, 2024, 8:08 p.m.
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FLASH DROUGHT COMING TO THE ECB AS I FEARED the last week+ and the NWS is picking up on.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

By metmike - June 17, 2024, 9:53 a.m.
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Bearish just over half the Cornbelt BULLISH the other half, ECB.

                Re: Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+            

                            By metmike - June 17, 2024, 9:51 a.m.         

            

By Jim_M - June 17, 2024, 10:25 a.m.
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Just my local 2 cents.  The lawns in NE Ohio went brown in a hurry.  Looking more like August instead of June.

By metmike - June 21, 2024, 9:47 a.m.
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Thanks, Jim!

Latest weather updates here:

                Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+                        

                By metmike - June 20, 2024, 1:31 p.m.     


       

                Re: Re: Re:  Grains May 28, 2024+                        

                By metmike - June 21, 2024, 9:30 a.m.            

By metmike - June 23, 2024, 2:51 p.m.
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Rainfall the last 72 hours.

Sorry you barely missed, cutworm )-:

It especially hurts when a rain event completely falls apart at your doorstep.

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours