You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.
Current Hazards at the link below.
Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
Latest National radar images
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current
This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
 Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you. https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps. The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link! |
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
UPPER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
LOWER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20# 
SOUTHCENTRAL
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#
SOUTHEAST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18#
Weather map now.
In 24 hours and
In 48 hours.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#
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Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
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The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Severe Storm Risk......updated daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Highs for days 3-7:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml
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Lows days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Extended weather.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
| 6 to 10 day outlooks | |||||||||
| Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |||||||||
| Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |||||||||
Temperature Probability | |||||||||
Precipitation Probability | |||||||||
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Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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July 26, 2022-update
U.S. Drought Monitor
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
The drought monitor can sometimes be a lagging indicator, but the trend is backed up here by the monthly precip anomalies. That same problem area mentioned above has gotten well below normal rainfall this month. In fact, almost none of the Corn Belt has been distinctly wet.
Drought monitor previous years:
Weeks 3-4 forecast updated every Friday mid afternoon.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
HOT!
Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/
NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22
23 responses |
Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml
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GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html
2 week 850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
I think that any places dry enough to plant in the Upper Midwest will be good for planting, regarding soil temps at the end of this week(start of next week)!
Things WILL be warming up quickly then!
You can pretty much find out much of what you need to know about the comprehensive weather by just scrolling down thru this thread at any point in time.
That's actually what I do.
Instead of going to each link separately, I/you can just go here and scroll down, since most are updated constantly.
Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.
Precip below..
Temperatures have been extremely chilly the last 30 days, especially in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest. That's finally coming to an end in several days in several days.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Updated forecast for the end of May/start of June......take it with a grain of salt
ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.
Our weather is tracking extremely closely to the La Nina analogs!
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
Current 8-14 day forecast:
The problem comes when the seasonal retreat northward of the jet stream occurs in June, the cold air also retreats north and the heat ridge in the south marches northward!
June is still a month away, and other things can interfere with the currently strong La Nina signal.
Weather is still bullish for NG and Wheat.
Just bringing this thread back to the top since its chock full of constantly updated weather data(more than any other thread here by a wide margin)
Increasing number of solutions building a major heat ridge late in week 2!
Major heat ridges in the Fall and Spring are usually more transient because of an active jet stream still in the mid latitudes that will dislodge them sooner or later.
Heat ridges in June, are more likely to establish a Summer pattern because there's no active jet stream around(it's migrated northward for the season).
This actually lines up with the La Nina analog and Summer forecasts, so it's a potentially ominous sign.
Not for sure, just the trend early this week.
Big heat coming in late May/early June.
N. Plains dries out.
S.Plains gets some rain But not nearly as much as needed.
Thank you for the update Mike!
You're extremely welcome Jim!
Some of the biggest rain totals of the year in the drought areas of the S.Plains this week(crushing the grains, especially wheat)
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Several counties in SouthCentral KS got 5-7 inches of rain. Severe drought areas farther west got much less than that but the eastern areas of drought are gone in the S.Plains and western areas were helped.
This is what clobbered wheat prices the last several days!!
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
The question today is, what has grain prices on a tear? In fact, everything with the exception of maybe Sugar seems to be on fire.
Weeks 3-4, very low skill but could be showing the turn to hot/dry in the Cornbelt that defines the Summer La Nina analog.
I imagine that if something sparks grains to go in an upward trajectory, it's going to be wild.
Building heat ridge in week 2 is EXTREMELY impressive on some models.
After taking a gander at the 10-14 NWS, I’m thinking not only will we be up tonight, that it might be time to play the long side.
That's the heat ridge I posted to you about last week, Jim!
Gap higher for natural gas could be an upside break away gap.
Dome of death, La Nina heat ridge developing in week 2!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854
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Either the weather picture is coming more into focus, or the Ukraine grain picture is deteriorating rapidly. Or both.
MetMike
Here in North Central Illinois, LaSalle County, crops are off to a very nice start after a slightly late start. We have received periodic rain, none gully washing. IF anything, a little heat would be appreciated.
HOW STRONG IS, WILL BE, the heat dome for the large corn growing areas of the I states? Concern, or merely a spike to Friday and a retest of recent lows?
TIA
Tim
No way to know tjc! Great to read you.
This week was have been merely dialing in new risk premium based on the rain suppressing heat ridge/dome being there all of week 2 and the fairly high potential for it to continue in week 3.......and beyond.
If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.
If its seen as just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower.
The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer.
I'm old enough to have been burned badly in the distant past many times for assuming anything about the week 3 weather to always be skeptical of all solutions that far out.
We could come in next Monday and that period could look much different than it does right now.
The first corn crop rating on Monday was much better than expected. You DON'T want to be long if the market thinks we have non adverse growing conditions.
Let's continue the great discussion here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85378/
Which solution? You stated two scenarios.
"If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.
If its seen as just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower.
The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer."
Some recent model runs have a trough in the Northeast and the heat ridge retrograding west to the Plains/Midwest.
This would be a bit bearish ng(compared the the heat ridge farther east) but potentially very bullish corn/beans.
How long will the impressive, rain suppressing heat ridge last and where will it be in week 3......which becomes week 2 next week, when the models have better predictive skill?
There WILL be an impressive heat ridge/dome, likely from La Nina driven forcing.
The location determines how bullish or not and to what commodity.
Forecast is close to expected. Troughing in the East/Northeast means cooler temps there where alot of people live........a bit bearish ng.
Heat ridge shifts west to the Plains, where less people live.
Bumping the important comprehensive weather thread to the top.
Thank you for all the work you do to bring us this weather!
You're extremely welcome cutworm.......I love doing it!
It looks like corn doesn't tolerate high temps
Our 1st planted is approaching knee high. Mind you we have a lot of ankle high also as corn can't be planted in a day or two
Any way, our tallest corn was wilting in mid after noon temps
We even stop spraying in the heat, early morning and evening. Makes it hard to cover ground with part days spraying
So maybe some will get behind spraying and have to spray in mid day heat. Not good for corn with some of chemicals we have to us
Over all our corn looks good just high temps bother me a bit
So far scattered showers keep soil watered enough
Heat ridge backing up west more and troughing in the Northeast late week 1, so less heat to end the month and in early July.
Latest models showing heat increasing again in week 2. Rains are uncertain.
Thanks Mike
YW Jim!
Models the last 24 hours have shifted the heat ridge farther southwest and allowed some NW type flow(ring of fire) activity in the Midwest, especially Upper Midwest so week 2 rains are NOW fairly robust(not much Eastern Cornbelt). This is MORE rain than I was expecting earlier this week.
This is the wettest model, the last 6z GFS ensemble. Light blue is 2 inches...mostly week 2.
MetMike
What is likelihood model becoming drier?
tjc,
I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86047/#86223
Latest drought monitor updated......DROUGHT EXPANSION THE LAST WEEK!
Latest weather above.
Increased rain chances farther east compared to Friday, most of it starts towards the end of this week and continues the first full week in July.
2 week totals below from the last 6z GFS ensemble run.
Interesting positive anomaly in North/Central Canada which can sometimes be a source of cool air in the Midwest/Northern Tier from the northern stream.
That contrasts with the models wanting to build a heat ridge in parts of the US from the southern stream.
GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html
Rains should be picking up at the end of this week and could be fairly active next week with a northwest type flow regime.
Perturbations coming around/over the top of the heat ridge farther south, triggering clusters of showers/t-showers that are a day or so spaced out time wise.
Some of the perturbation energy may be coming from the northern stream, some may be coming from the Southwest Monsoon flow surging from the Southwest and circling/tracing out the periphery of the heat ridge.
Also, there is a Pacific stream in between that looks to potentially have some perturbations/waves which ride over the top of the heat ridge.
This is why the NWS has had above average rain in the extended guidance all week. That period is moving up to just 2 days from now.
This will be in addition to a front that moves back and forth in this same area.
Drought updated:
Huge rains for much of the Cornbelt coming up.
However, the southwestern Cornbelt is in some trouble. Depends on where exactly the heat ridge completely shuts down the rains butthe cut off will be but KS/MO and points south, possibly into s.IL/sw.IN.
Looks great for Jim in ne.OH!
Bumping it to the top! Rains drying up in week 2 with cooler temps.
Bumping to top. Still looking much drier next week and beyond.
Cool next week but heating up after that. Bullish grains.
Same weather outlook. Lows are in for the grains.
Bumping weather to the top.
What is still NOT showing up in the NWS products there........but the market knows is the pattern continues to feature the heat ridge backing up/retrograding to the west and introducing increasing northwest flow into the Midwest.
If it continues, I STILL contend the NWS 8-14 day outlooks will start increasing rains, first in the ECB.
They actually added rains in the week 1 forecast today:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
The market ALWAYS, with few exceptions, reacts to these changes a couple of days before the NWS has them in their meteorologist interpreted products.
There's a ton of disagreement on models with regards to this. Most back up the dome but some shift it into the heart of the cornbelt.
This was the week 3/4 CFS forecast that helped crash the grains yesterday(and ng for awhile).
Cool and wetter.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949
USE THIS LINK: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Sizzling heat and no rain in the red areas of the first map with extremely high confidence.
Euro and especially the GFS were wetter overnight.
Light blue is 2 inches of rain. Much of this comes in week 2:
Not surprisingly, the NWS this afternoon increased rain amounts in the Cornbelt a great deal on their week 2 guidance. Above average rain over some big areas:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
I have low confidence in this change and also, it could be transient.........as in last for a week or less, then go back to hot/dry.
Too much rain in the forecast for grains to rally. This was the last 6z GFS ensemble rain forecast for the next 2 weeks:
Weeks 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill show big heat in the East/Midwest back to the Midwest/Plains.
Just updated this morning.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.
Confirmation of less rain and heat??
tjc,
No confirmation of less rain and heat. The models don't look that different. When beans were up sharply and corn still down in the month of July, then it usually tells us the forecast did NOT change much.
My only thinking to explain today's action is that rains are now really close in the forecast and will get the corn crop much closer to being made, while the hot/dry forecast for August, will hurt the beans pod filling(their key development phase).
There could have been a non weather item that I'm not privy to.
We took out alot of rain in the forecast for a big section of the Upper Midwest:
Weather is bullish for the grains........but HUGE rains southern half of Cornbelt this week.
Not as much rains left southern belt as each day goes by.
Not much rain after that for most of the Cornbelt.
Not much change for the week 2 forecast.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87552/
Weather is much less bullish on Sunday for ng(much cooler) and grains, cooler and better chances for rain, especially ECB but also CCB and maybe even a chance in the WCB.
No changes on Monday.
Still cooler on Tuesday AM but could the heat ridge be making a come back east in week 2 here on the Tuesday PM guidance?
Less rain than expected:
MUCH cooler outlooks this week!
Coolest forecast of the Summer!
However, it looks like temps may warm up late in week 2.
