Weather May-November 2022-UPDATED LINKS
104 responses | 0 likes
Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

To see rain amounts, go here: https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


            

Latest National radar images


https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current


Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

 

                                   


            This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast 
Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Comments
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:32 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Weather map now.

In 24 hours and

In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
Like Reply

Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                          


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
Like Reply

Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
Like Reply

Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
Like Reply

Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/mtd_cen/month.pperc.png


October 18, 2022 Below

Drought worsening!!

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Drought Monitor for conus


AUGUST 16, 2022 BELOW

Drought is worse in the WCB compared to 3 weeks earlier

Drought Monitor for conus

July 26, 2022-update

       U.S. Drought Monitor

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Drought Monitor for conus



Image


@kannbwx

The drought monitor can sometimes be a lagging indicator, but the trend is backed up here by the monthly precip anomalies. That same problem area mentioned above has gotten well below normal rainfall this month. In fact, almost none of the Corn Belt has been distinctly wet.

Image




         Drought monitor previous years:

Image

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:49 p.m.
Like Reply

Weeks 3-4 forecast updated every Friday mid afternoon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

                  HOT!                  

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m

         

EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
Like Reply

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html

                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly                            

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php


I think that any places dry enough to plant in the Upper Midwest will be good for planting, regarding soil temps at the end of this week(start of next week)!

Things WILL be warming up quickly then!

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 2:28 p.m.
Like Reply

You can pretty much find out much of what you need to know about the comprehensive weather by just scrolling down thru this thread at any point in time.

That's actually what I do.

Instead of going to each link separately, I/you can just go here and scroll down, since most are updated constantly.

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
Like Reply

Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

Precip below..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.png

By metmike - May 3, 2022, 5:03 p.m.
Like Reply

Temperatures have been extremely chilly the last 30 days, especially in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest. That's finally coming to an end in several days in several days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20220501.30day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - May 5, 2022, 2:10 p.m.
Like Reply

Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you. 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.

The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!

By metmike - May 6, 2022, 3:45 p.m.
Like Reply

Updated forecast for the end of May/start of June......take it with a grain of salt

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 12:52 p.m.
Like Reply

ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 4:48 p.m.
Like Reply

Our weather is tracking extremely closely to the La Nina analogs!

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/

spring-season-temperature-anomaly-united-states-analysis-la-nina-pattern

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Current 8-14 day forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

The problem comes when the seasonal retreat northward of the jet stream occurs in June, the cold air also retreats north and  the heat ridge in the south marches northward!

June is still a month away, and other things can interfere with the currently strong La Nina signal.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83855

By metmike - May 12, 2022, 2:15 p.m.
Like Reply

Weather is still bullish for NG and Wheat.

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 12:03 p.m.
Like Reply

Just bringing this thread back to the top since its chock full of constantly updated weather data(more than any other thread here by a wide margin)

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 3:39 p.m.
Like Reply

Increasing number of solutions building a major heat ridge late in week 2!

Major heat ridges in the Fall and Spring are usually more transient because of an active jet stream still in the mid latitudes that will dislodge them sooner or later.

Heat ridges in June, are more likely to establish a Summer pattern because there's no active jet stream around(it's migrated northward for the season).

This actually lines up with the La Nina analog and Summer forecasts, so it's a potentially ominous sign.

Not for sure, just the trend early this week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 9:56 a.m.
Like Reply

Big heat coming in late May/early June.

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 10:07 a.m.
Like Reply

N. Plains dries  out.

S.Plains  gets some rain But not nearly as much as needed.

By metmike - May 19, 2022, 2 p.m.
Like Reply

Just updated this morning:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/


Image



/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

                                    


            

                

By Jim_M - May 20, 2022, 1:59 p.m.
Like Reply

Thank you for the update Mike!  

By metmike - May 20, 2022, 10:38 p.m.
Like Reply

You're extremely welcome Jim!

By metmike - May 25, 2022, 11:21 a.m.
Like Reply

Some of the biggest rain totals of the year in the drought areas of the S.Plains this week(crushing the grains, especially wheat)


https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

By metmike - May 26, 2022, 10:15 a.m.
Like Reply

Several counties in SouthCentral KS got 5-7 inches of rain. Severe drought areas farther west got much less than that but the eastern areas of drought are gone in the S.Plains and western areas were helped.

This is what clobbered wheat prices the last several days!!

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

By Jim_M - May 26, 2022, 11:48 a.m.
Like Reply

The question today is, what has grain prices on a tear?  In fact, everything with the exception of maybe Sugar seems to be on fire.  

By metmike - May 27, 2022, 4:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Weeks 3-4, very low skill but could be showing the turn to hot/dry in the Cornbelt that defines the Summer La Nina analog.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

By Jim_M - May 31, 2022, 2:13 p.m.
Like Reply

I imagine that if something sparks grains to go in an upward trajectory, it's going to be wild.  

By metmike - June 3, 2022, 1:19 p.m.
Like Reply

Building heat ridge in week 2 is EXTREMELY impressive on some models.

By Jim_M - June 5, 2022, 4:26 p.m.
Like Reply

After taking a gander at the 10-14 NWS, I’m thinking not only will we be up tonight, that it might be time to play the long side.  

By metmike - June 5, 2022, 7:09 p.m.
Like Reply

That's the heat ridge I posted to you about last week, Jim!

Gap higher for natural gas could be an upside break away gap.

Dome of death, La Nina heat ridge developing in week 2!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 

                                    


By Jim_M - June 5, 2022, 10:13 p.m.
Like Reply

GIDDYAP!  :)

By Jim_M - June 7, 2022, 12:08 p.m.
Like Reply

Either the weather picture is coming more into focus, or the Ukraine grain picture is deteriorating rapidly.  Or both.  

By tjc - June 8, 2022, 10:17 a.m.
Like Reply

 MetMike

  Here in North Central Illinois, LaSalle County, crops are off to a very nice start after a slightly late start.  We have received periodic rain, none gully washing.  IF anything, a little heat would be appreciated.

  HOW STRONG IS, WILL BE, the heat dome for the large corn growing areas of the I states?  Concern, or merely a spike to Friday and a retest of recent lows?

  TIA

Tim

By metmike - June 8, 2022, 12:42 p.m.
Like Reply

No way to know tjc!  Great to read you.

This week was have been merely dialing in new risk premium based on the rain suppressing heat ridge/dome being there all of week 2 and the fairly high potential for it to continue in week 3.......and beyond.

If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.

If its seen as  just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower. 

The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer. 

I'm old enough to have been burned badly in the distant past many times for assuming anything about the week 3 weather to always be skeptical of all solutions that far out.  

We could come in next Monday and that period could look much different than it does right now. 

The first corn crop rating on Monday was much better than expected. You DON'T want to be long if the market thinks we have non adverse growing conditions.

Let's continue the great discussion here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85378/


By Jim_M - June 8, 2022, 3:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Which solution?  You stated two scenarios.

"If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.

If its seen as  just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower. 

The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer."  

By metmike - June 10, 2022, 5:48 p.m.
Like Reply

Some recent  model runs have a trough in the Northeast and the heat ridge retrograding west to the Plains/Midwest.

This would be a bit bearish ng(compared the the heat ridge farther east) but potentially very bullish corn/beans.

How long will the impressive, rain suppressing heat ridge last and where will it be in week 3......which becomes week 2 next week, when the models have better predictive skill?

There WILL be an impressive heat ridge/dome, likely from La Nina driven forcing.

The location determines how bullish or not and to what commodity.



By metmike - June 13, 2022, 1:40 a.m.
Like Reply

Forecast is close to expected. Troughing in the East/Northeast means cooler temps there where alot of people live........a bit bearish ng.

Heat ridge shifts west to the Plains, where less people live.

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:34 p.m.
Like Reply

Bumping the important comprehensive weather thread to the top.

By cutworm - June 15, 2022, 2:06 p.m.
Like Reply

Thank you for all the work you do to bring us this weather!

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 3:07 p.m.
Like Reply

You're extremely welcome cutworm.......I love doing it!

By metmike - June 16, 2022, 12:58 p.m.
Like Reply
By wglassfo - June 16, 2022, 1:26 p.m.
Like Reply

It looks like corn doesn't tolerate high temps

Our 1st planted is approaching knee high. Mind you we have a lot of ankle high also as corn can't be planted in a day or two

Any way, our tallest corn was wilting in mid after noon temps

We even stop spraying in the heat, early morning and evening. Makes it hard to cover ground with part days spraying

So maybe some will get behind spraying and have to spray in mid day heat. Not good for corn with some of chemicals we have to us 

Over all our corn looks good just high temps bother me a bit

So far scattered showers keep soil watered enough

By metmike - June 17, 2022, 11:47 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Wayne!


ImageImage

By metmike - June 19, 2022, 11:31 p.m.
Like Reply

Heat ridge backing up west more and troughing in the Northeast late week 1, so less  heat to end the month and  in early July.

By metmike - June 22, 2022, 5:32 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest models showing heat increasing again in week 2. Rains are uncertain.

By Jim_M - June 22, 2022, 5:59 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks Mike

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:51 a.m.
Like Reply

YW Jim!

Models the last 24 hours have shifted the heat ridge farther southwest and allowed some NW type flow(ring of fire) activity in the Midwest, especially Upper Midwest so week 2 rains are NOW fairly robust(not much Eastern Cornbelt).  This is MORE rain than I was expecting earlier this week.

This is the wettest model, the last 6z GFS ensemble. Light blue is 2 inches...mostly week 2. 

By tjc - June 23, 2022, 1:31 p.m.
Like Reply

MetMike

What is likelihood model becoming drier?

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 10:15 p.m.
Like Reply

tjc,

I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86047/#86223



By metmike - June 24, 2022, 1:21 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest drought monitor updated......DROUGHT EXPANSION THE LAST WEEK!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - June 24, 2022, 5:19 p.m.
Like Reply

Low skill weeks 3-4 just issued:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

                  HOT!


By metmike - June 26, 2022, 12:02 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest weather above.

Increased rain chances farther east compared to Friday, most of it starts towards the end of this week and continues the first full week in July.

2 week totals below from the last 6z GFS ensemble run.

By metmike - June 29, 2022, 1:43 p.m.
Like Reply

Interesting positive anomaly in North/Central Canada which can sometimes be a source of  cool air in the Midwest/Northern Tier from the northern stream.

That contrasts with the models wanting to build a heat ridge in parts of the US from the southern stream.

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. THIS MAP IS UPDATED DAILY.

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html

                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - June 29, 2022, 1:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Rains should be picking up at the end of this week and could be fairly active next week with a northwest type flow regime.

Perturbations coming around/over the top of the heat ridge farther south, triggering clusters of showers/t-showers that are a day or so spaced out time wise.

Some of the perturbation energy may be coming from the northern stream, some may be coming from the Southwest Monsoon flow surging from the Southwest and circling/tracing out the periphery of the heat ridge.

Also, there is a Pacific stream in between that looks to potentially have some perturbations/waves which ride over the top of the heat ridge.


This is why the NWS has had above average rain in the extended guidance all week. That period is moving up to just 2 days from now.

This will be in addition to a front that moves back and forth in this same area.

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:08 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - July 4, 2022, 11:41 a.m.
Like Reply

Huge rains for much of the Cornbelt coming up.

However, the southwestern Cornbelt is in some trouble. Depends on where exactly the heat ridge completely shuts down the rains butthe cut off will be but KS/MO and points south, possibly into s.IL/sw.IN.

Looks great for Jim in ne.OH!

By metmike - July 5, 2022, 7:56 p.m.
Like Reply

Bumping it to the top! Rains drying up in week 2 with cooler temps.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

By metmike - July 7, 2022, 1:35 a.m.
Like Reply

Bumping to top. Still looking much drier next week and beyond.

Cool next week but heating up after that. Bullish grains.

By metmike - July 8, 2022, 12:25 p.m.
Like Reply

Same weather outlook. Lows are in for the grains.

By metmike - July 8, 2022, 6:05 p.m.
Like Reply

This could last awhile! THESE MAPS UPDATE CONSTANTLY.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature ProbabilityWeek 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability

By metmike - July 13, 2022, 5:13 p.m.
Like Reply

Bumping weather to the top. 

What is still NOT showing up in the NWS products there........but the market knows is the pattern continues to feature the heat ridge backing up/retrograding to the west and introducing increasing northwest flow into the Midwest.

If it continues, I STILL contend the NWS 8-14 day outlooks will start increasing rains, first in the ECB. 

They actually added rains in the week 1 forecast today:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

The market ALWAYS, with few exceptions, reacts to these changes a couple of days before the NWS has them in their meteorologist interpreted products.

There's a ton of disagreement on models with regards to this. Most back up the dome but some shift it into the heart of the cornbelt.

This was the week 3/4 CFS forecast that helped crash the grains yesterday(and ng for awhile).

Cool and wetter.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949

USE THIS LINK: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/


By metmike - July 15, 2022, 3:03 a.m.
Like Reply

@kannbwx

Forecasters believe #LaNina conditions will stick around through the end of 2022, but an ENSO-neutral scenario could take over in early 2023. Something other than La Nina usually bodes better for crops in southern South America (esp. Argentina) and the southern U.S. Plains.

Image

By metmike - July 18, 2022, 7:27 p.m.
Like Reply

Sizzling heat and no rain in the red areas of the first map with extremely high confidence.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - July 19, 2022, 11:54 a.m.
Like Reply

Euro and especially the GFS were wetter overnight.

Light blue is 2 inches of rain. Much of this comes in week 2:


                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 20, 2022, 11:48 a.m.
Like Reply

Weeks 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill show big heat in the East/Midwest back to the Midwest/Plains.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949

By metmike - July 21, 2022, 1:07 p.m.
Like Reply

Just updated this morning.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.

ImageImage

                                    


            

                

By tjc - July 22, 2022, 10:42 a.m.
Like Reply

  Confirmation of less rain and heat??

By metmike - July 22, 2022, 2:43 p.m.
Like Reply

tjc,

No confirmation of less rain and heat. The models don't look that different. When beans were up sharply and corn still down in the month of July, then it usually tells us the forecast did NOT change much.

My only thinking to explain today's action is that rains are now really close in the forecast and will get the corn crop much closer to being made, while the hot/dry forecast for August, will hurt the beans pod filling(their key development phase). 

There could have been a non weather item that I'm not privy to.

By metmike - July 25, 2022, 7:17 p.m.
Like Reply

Weather is bullish for the grains........but HUGE rains southern half of Cornbelt this week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

By metmike - Aug. 28, 2022, 9:52 p.m.
Like Reply

I deleted the last month's worth of forecast updates to shorten the weather page.

Most of the maps at the top are updated constantly. It's too late in the growing season for weather to impact grains much. 

NG weather is a modestly bullish but the last 12z European model was -5 CDDs.

By metmike - Sept. 6, 2022, 10:16 a.m.
Like Reply

CDDs were slightly lower overnight on the models, mainly less heat on the 0z European model in week 2 (after being hotter for late week 1)

By metmike - Sept. 7, 2022, 3:55 p.m.
Like Reply

See updates for the remnants of Hurricane Kay:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88455/

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2022, 12:24 p.m.
Like Reply

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88534/#88632


Latest hazards map at the top. Record setting heat wave out West is almost over.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.weather.gov/       

Hurricane Kay in the southwest US:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88455/#88636

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2022, 7:08 p.m.
Like Reply

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

September is not a good weather trading month.

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2022, 7:17 p.m.
Like Reply

Very welcome rains to some places in the West for this time of year(even if ABC evening news led with the story and said they were bad because there will be high winds and mudslides caused- never mentioned any benefits).

I intentionally captured a freeze frame image below and on the one on the page after this for excessive rains in the latest forecast, here at 6pm CDT on Sept. 9.  Please go to the links if you want an update.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Sept. 9, 2022, 7:19 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:29 p.m.
Like Reply

@CraigSolberg

Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)

ImageImage

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:33 p.m.
Like Reply

Rainfall the last 90 days:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:36 p.m.
Like Reply

HRW crop may be getting planted in the dust. Not good for optimal early development before going dormant ahead of the harsh Winter cold.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2022, 6:42 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 6:50 p.m.
Like Reply

    Continued dry for HRW wheat drought areas. This will be increasingly more  bullish. However, big news from Ukraine always trumps other factors. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Week 3-4 Outlooks     
Valid: 15 Oct 2022 to 28 Oct 2022
Updated: 30 Sep 2022

Temperature Probability


Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
(Experimental)


 Week 3-4 Outlooks - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Oct. 10, 2022, 12:27 p.m.
Like Reply

Drought in the Plains  bullish for HRW wheat.

TX will get some rain but dry elsewhere, possibly thru the rest of the month.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/


% of average rain for all periods going back to 1 year ago:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/#89588

By metmike - Oct. 11, 2022, 2:15 p.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Oct. 16, 2022, 1:55 a.m.
Like Reply

GFS ensemble precip for the next 15 days:

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

By metmike - Oct. 20, 2022, 7:52 p.m.
Like Reply

Latest GFS ensemble: Potentially, the most rain in awhile  for some of these places. Much of this is now in our week 1 forecast.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php



7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - Oct. 24, 2022, 5:28 p.m.
Like Reply

Rains amounts have been increasing since last week.

 Ridge east, trough west is the preferred pattern for the European model, which is wetter and warmer than the GFS(American model).

The GFS ensemble below, is not as wet and has zonal flow in week 2. Most of the rain below  is from this current week and is MORE than last week.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

By metmike - Oct. 25, 2022, 2:44 p.m.
Like Reply

The main reason that this looks like less rain in some places is because of rains that already  fell the past 24 hours. The main increase in rains has shifted east from yesterday. See map above. This is from the just out 12z GFS ensemble mean.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

By metmike - Oct. 30, 2022, 12:07 p.m.
Like Reply

384 hour precip from the 6z GFS ensemble mean. The European model is even a bit wetter. This will help to erode the drought in some very dry places.

 12z below

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php


                                    


By metmike - Oct. 31, 2022, 1:23 p.m.
Like Reply

Precip is actually bearish for grains/wheat but Ukraine news is what matters most!

The European model has even MORE precip than the GFS Ensemble below!

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

                                    


By metmike - Nov. 1, 2022, 12:15 a.m.
Like Reply

Just updated forecast for November:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_temp.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off15_prcp.gif


By metmike - Nov. 4, 2022, 9:17 a.m.
Like Reply

Models have been turning colder for week 2 but not extreme cold...yet, especially not in the East.

By metmike - Nov. 8, 2022, 12:22 p.m.
Like Reply

Vigorous cold to hit the east late this week but be very transient and moderate later this month. 

By metmike - Nov. 10, 2022, 10:50 p.m.
Like Reply

An extremely tight temp gradient develops in week 2 between extreme cold to the north and very balmy trying to return deep south.

Because of this, small changes are causing models to  flip flop, sometimes in extreme fashion. The 12z GFS was -4 HDDs bearish vs the 0Z run, which had been +9 HDDs bullish. The European model did the exact opposite. The last 12z run was an incredible +15 HDD's bullish after the previous 0z run was -8 HDDs bearish. 

Individual ensemble solutions have an extremely wide spread.

This is the bullish version of the pattern from the last operational 18z GFS.

1. Jet stream map

2. 850 mb temperature map

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php


By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 1:20 a.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 10:07 a.m.
Like Reply

We woke up to a surprise 3-4 inches of snow in southwest IN. I was not expecting that much.

I re mortared a ton of bricks on our steps and walkway on Wed/Thu and have them covered with black plastic, mainly to try to trap the ground heat and prevent a deep hard freeze that might cause moisture still in the partially cured  mortar to freeze up, expand and compromise the integrity of the bonding. 

I started sweeping off the snow, worried that it would melt and then refreeze to ice, then decided to leave it on to help insulate more. 

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/snow/snow-cover

Static map

By metmike - Nov. 15, 2022, 4:01 p.m.
Like Reply

Week 2 is featuring a huge warm up:

However, the AO and NAO are moving into negative territory which often means more cold than the models think:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook


By metmike - Nov. 27, 2022, 3:54 p.m.
Like Reply

Weather models are cold north/northwest, warm southeast, very much like the La Nina analog. 

However the NAO/AO are solidly negative and cold for the east too. 

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


By WxFollower - Nov. 27, 2022, 4:27 p.m.
Like Reply

 Before you made this last post, I was already typing a first post in a new wx thread. So, I hadn't seen any of your post when I was putting mine together:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/91060/

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2022, 6:41 p.m.
Like Reply

Bumping this to the top for the links.

I'll be busy with chess at  schools and may not have as much time to devout to updates.