Weather-UPDATED LINKS
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Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

Recent El Nino driven storms have been a blessing for the West which relies on melting snow later this year for their water supply.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


https://www.wunderground.com/maps/snow/snow-cover

Snow Depth 2-13-24

Snow Depth 2-8-24

Snow Depth 2-4-24


Snow Depth 2-1-24 WOW! Mostly melted!

Snow Depth 1-27-24 Melting fast!

Snow depth 1-23-24............MELTING!

Snow depth 1-19-24.....MELTING THIS WEEK!

                                    


                           To see rain amounts, go here: https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


New radar product below          

 https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOm51bGwsImNlbnRlciI6Wy05NC45OCwzNy4wMl0sImxvY2F0aW9uIjpudWxsLCJ6b29tIjo0fSwiYW5pbWF0aW5nIjpmYWxzZSwiYmFzZSI6InN0YW5kYXJkIiwiYXJ0Y2MiOmZhbHNlLCJjb3VudHkiOmZhbHNlLCJjd2EiOmZhbHNlLCJyZmMiOmZhbHNlLCJzdGF0ZSI6ZmFsc2UsIm1lbnUiOnRydWUsInNob3J0RnVzZWRPbmx5IjpmYWxzZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuOCwibG9jYWwiOjAuNiwibG9jYWxTdGF0aW9ucyI6MC44LCJuYXRpb25hbCI6MC42fX0%3D

Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"

Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site

+++++++++++++++++++++++NY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

                          This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains
 Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.htmlConus Radar Very High Resolution


Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Comments
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
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1. Weather map now.

2. In 24 hours and

3. In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

These maps can give you a great idea on the areas expecting snow this week and how much.

The NWS will update these products a couple of times/day numerous hours AFTER the updated models are out. 


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Snowfall Probability Forecasts     

    The following charts depict the probability of snowfall reaching or exceeding the specified amount.      

                                
              ≥ 1 inch
              Day 1 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.
Day 1            
              ≥ 1 inch
              Day 2 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.
Day 2             
              ≥ 1 inch
              Day 3 probability of snow accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch.
Day 3             
      

                                                                    

       Specific accumulation
thresholds for Days 1-3:
      
       All accumulation
thresholds for:
      
        ≥ 1 inch              ≥ 8 inches              Day 1      
        ≥ 2 inches              ≥ 12 inches              Day 2      
        ≥ 4 inches              ≥ 18 inches              Day 3      
        ≥ 6 inches       

 


Day 1Day 2Day 3
    ≥ 4 inches
    Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 4 inches
    ≥ 4 inches
    Day 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 4 inches
    ≥ 4 inches
    Day 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches
    ≥ 8 inches
    Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches
    ≥ 8 inches
    Day 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches
    ≥ 8 inches
    Day 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 8 inches
    ≥ 12 inches
    Day 1 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches
    ≥ 12 inches
    Day 2 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches
    ≥ 12 inches
    Day 3 probability of snowfall greater than or equal to 12 inches

 

  24-, 48-, and 72-Hour Snowfall Percentile Accumulation Forecasts for Days 1-3  

Day 4-7 Outlook 

 

                                          
              Day 4
 
                            Day 4 probability of at least .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow/sleet.
              Day 5
 
                            Day 5 probability of at least .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow/sleet.
              Day 6
 
                            Day 6 probability of at least .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow/sleet.
              Day 7
 
                            Day 7 probability of at least .25 inch liquid equivalent of snow/sleet.



The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126





By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  Day 3 outlook

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                          


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Updated daily below:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/mtd_cen/month.pperc.png

DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


Last week January 30, 2024



DECEMBER 12, 2023 below


NOVEMBER 14, 2023




October 17, 2023      


August, 2023, BELOW

DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022









The severe drought in the Southwest to N. Plains was wiped out this year from the El Nino. 

         Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!

Image

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
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Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m

         

EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
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Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly    

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php


TOO COLD to plant the rest of April. 

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

Precip below..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.png

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 12:52 p.m.
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ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 10:15 p.m.
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tjc,

I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86047/#86223



By metmike - July 15, 2022, 3:03 a.m.
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@kannbwx

Forecasters believe #LaNina conditions will stick around through the end of 2022, but an ENSO-neutral scenario could take over in early 2023. Something other than La Nina usually bodes better for crops in southern South America (esp. Argentina) and the southern U.S. Plains.

Image

By metmike - July 21, 2022, 1:07 p.m.
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Just updated this morning.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.

ImageImage

                                    


            

                

By metmike - Sept. 8, 2022, 12:24 p.m.
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88534/#88632


Latest hazards map at the top. Record setting heat wave out West is almost over.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.weather.gov/       

Hurricane Kay in the southwest US:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88455/#88636

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2022, 1:29 p.m.
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@CraigSolberg

Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)

ImageImage

By metmike - Sept. 18, 2022, 3:36 p.m.
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HRW crop may be getting planted in the dust. Not good for optimal early development before going dormant ahead of the harsh Winter cold.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2022, 6:42 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 10, 2022, 10:50 p.m.
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An extremely tight temp gradient develops in week 2 between extreme cold to the north and very balmy trying to return deep south.

Because of this, small changes are causing models to  flip flop, sometimes in extreme fashion. The 12z GFS was -4 HDDs bearish vs the 0Z run, which had been +9 HDDs bullish. The European model did the exact opposite. The last 12z run was an incredible +15 HDD's bullish after the previous 0z run was -8 HDDs bearish. 

Individual ensemble solutions have an extremely wide spread.

This is the bullish version of the pattern from the last operational 18z GFS.

1. Jet stream map

2. 850 mb temperature map

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php


By metmike - Nov. 12, 2022, 10:07 a.m.
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We woke up to a surprise 3-4 inches of snow in southwest IN. I was not expecting that much.

I re mortared a ton of bricks on our steps and walkway on Wed/Thu and have them covered with black plastic, mainly to try to trap the ground heat and prevent a deep hard freeze that might cause moisture still in the partially cured  mortar to freeze up, expand and compromise the integrity of the bonding. 

I started sweeping off the snow, worried that it would melt and then refreeze to ice, then decided to leave it on to help insulate more. 

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/snow/snow-cover

Static map

By WxFollower - Nov. 27, 2022, 4:27 p.m.
Like Reply

 Before you made this last post, I was already typing a first post in a new wx thread. So, I hadn't seen any of your post when I was putting mine together:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/91060/

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2023, 2:27 a.m.
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Some extremely heavy precip in areas that need precip.

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


Drought monitor for December 27th below:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Feb. 4, 2023, 11:41 p.m.
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Temperatures in January 2023

Extremely mild Eastern half.

Cold West.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20230131.30day.mean.F.gif


By metmike - Feb. 9, 2023, 12:10 a.m.
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By metmike - Feb. 27, 2023, 1:01 p.m.
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By metmike - March 10, 2023, 1:05 a.m.
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More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx


Drought Monitor for conus


On the other side, that contradicts the truth,  those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.


‘Unrivaled’ Storm Threatens California With Floods

Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/us/california-weather-rain-storm-flood.html


By metmike - March 21, 2023, 9:11 p.m.
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Total rains the next 2 weeks from 3-21-23 forecast.

Gray shade is 5+ inches!


Weather Model



La Nina dead!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93716/


By metmike - March 23, 2023, 1:14 p.m.
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Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.

This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!

Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?

That doesn't sell!

This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the drought....is over!

Climate change INCREASES precip!

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf


                                    


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - March 29, 2023, 11:45 p.m.
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Next severe weather outbreak!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94148/

By metmike - April 5, 2023, 12:37 a.m.
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New Severe Weather outbreak  4-4/5-2023

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94270/


Not been very active so far.

By metmike - April 20, 2023, 11:04 a.m.
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Welcome rains coming the the S.Plains drought areas next week!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:15 p.m.
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Am puzzled why they increase drought in IA/MO with the current pattern looking wet:


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php

               

 
 
       United States Seasonal Drought Outlook Graphic - click on image to enlarge



By metmike - May 1, 2023, 7:18 p.m.
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https://graphs.water-data.com/ucsnowpack/

Snowpack is 150.19% of the May 1st average.

By metmike - May 3, 2023, 1:15 p.m.
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BTW Jean,

I love that guy that you linked us with because of his enthusiasm and he was alot of wonderful stuff.

But he's a crappy weather forecaster in realms like the one he's using in this video because his objective is to sensationalize everything at the expense of NOT seeing dynamics which undercut that mission.

He insists that it will be dry in May in the places below that will receive alot of rain during just the next 2 weeks(6z GEFS 5-3-23). In fact, just the next week. His forecast for a dry May is already busting right after he released it!

This isn't just a difference in opinion. The model below might be too wet for the pattern but this guy is blowing the pattern recognition aspect of the forecast from being too closed minded with his focus on THE PRESENTATION and missing the forest because he's looking at a few impressive trees that lets him make a misleading video like this.

Put another way, he's using some solid principles about meteorology that apply to Omega Blocks, then embellishes and extrapolates and exaggerates to make an attention grabbing video which contrasts with ALL the model and expert forecasts using pattern recognition of THE BIGGER PICTURE. 

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126



6z GEFS total precip 5-3-23


      This Is Going To Completely Change Our Weather…    

                   

    Ryan Hall, Y'all  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkFfz4vw1Sg

++++++++++++++

Again, I really like this guy for great weather information in many realms. Agricultural and energy weather forecasting would not be one of them or long range forecasting.

Short Term and current severe weather, YES!

By metmike - May 3, 2023, 1:19 p.m.
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El Nino/Summer weather forecast:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94866/

By metmike - May 4, 2023, 9:44 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.

This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast. 

There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably. 

Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get. 

https://www.bestweatherinc.com/about/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freese-Notis

By metmike - May 21, 2023, 5:55 p.m.
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By metmike - May 25, 2023, 12:36 p.m.
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Latest on dry weather above:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

Karen Braun@kannbwx

Over the last month, U.S. drought conditions eased in parts of the High Plains, incl. some of HRW #wheat country, but dryness has spread in the east, incl. Missouri & Illinois. However, #drought concerns are far from over in the western #Corn Belt.

ImageImage

By metmike - June 1, 2023, 3:36 p.m.
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Updated drought monitor.

Greatly expanding drought. Rains in June are now critical to prevent yield potential from eroding.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

Drought Monitor for conus

By coffeeclotch - June 3, 2023, 10:04 a.m.
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Last weekend we trended wetter and then had a bloodbath Tuesday into early Wednesday.. And then we spent remainder week clawing back.. Even posting gains... Weekly reversals.  Interesting to see what unfolds

By metmike - June 3, 2023, 11:21 a.m.
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CC,

You're exactly right! Great account of what happened!

                5-28-23 WX turning LESS BULLISH!            

                            26 responses |    

                Started by metmike - May 28, 2023, 11:39 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95611/

+++++++++

                Re: Re: Re: Crop conditions May 30, 2023            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95705/#95770

+++++++++++++++++

Late in the week, the driest areas were in the ECB, best chance of rain, WCB. 

GEFS with almost 2 inches of rain in most places, European Ensemble around 1 inch.

The last couple of model runs have taken away rains in the WCB. Added some in the SE Cornbelt. 

As long as the EE has such skinny rains, half the average, I continue bullish.

Let's continue this discussion here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/95705/

By metmike - Aug. 8, 2023, 2:36 p.m.
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Over 1,000 severe storm reports yesterday/8-7-23

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98002/#98044

This is incredible for August which is NOT severe weather season!!!  Just 1 weak tornado in KS.


Yesterday's Storm Reports (20230807 1200 UTC - 20230808 1159 UTC) (Print Version)      

        < 230806 Reports                 230808 Reports >      
Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

By metmike - Aug. 9, 2023, 9:03 a.m.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SUMMARY...   Multiple rounds of significant severe thunderstorms with tornadoes,   and damaging winds/hail are possible from the Ozarks to the   Tennessee Valley this afternoon into tonight.

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2023, 7:09 p.m.
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We need some rain in most places. Won't help crops but will help lawns/gardens and other natural vegetation and especially the Mississippi River level which is getting too low again, like it did last Fall.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98882/#98886


By metmike - Sept. 16, 2023, 5:28 p.m.
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Rains really picking up now in the forecast (especially for the Plains/W.Corn belt)because of a huge pattern change-bearish Winter wheat, good for planting.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

This has been the biggest weather deal the past 2 weeks:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

Current Wind links:

https://www.windfinder.com/#5/45.5371/-65.9619/spot

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/wind/current-winds


https://www.windalert.com/map#45.187,-78.838,5,1

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:31 p.m.
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Updated long range forecasts:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/


Technical discussion:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html


Long range forecasts don't have a great deal of skill but the upcoming ones have elevated odds of verifying vs average because of the El Nino.

Here's the link to get all of them with the 3 month forecasts for N-D-J as well as D-J-F, then J-J-A 2024 copied below:


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


N-D-J


+++++++++++++++++

D-J-F




By metmike - Oct. 21, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 24, 2023, 10:30 p.m.
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First BIG Winter storm of the season:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/


Total snow the next week:

By metmike - Oct. 27, 2023, 11:45 p.m.
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Look at this amazing temp contrast!

Current temperatures:

http://wxmaps.org/


Total snow the next 3 days

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2023, 4:13 p.m.
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By 12345 - Oct. 31, 2023, 5:17 p.m.
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LOL  I WAS GETTING READY TO MAKE MYSELF A NOTE THAT THIS IS THE 1ST OCTOBER , IN UMPTEEN YEARS THAT WE HAVEN'T HAD SNOW, IN ONE FORM , OR ANOTHER. BUT...... WE GOT A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW.    

WE HAD OUR COLDEST NIGHT, LAST NIGHT... DOWN TO 23.  TODAY, WE GOT ABOVE FREEZING FOR 6 HOURS.


By metmike - Oct. 31, 2023, 11:51 p.m.
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Thanks, Jean!

Just updated today:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/


Updated OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts
Issued: October 31, 2023
 
 30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability
By 12345 - Nov. 1, 2023, 6:16 a.m.
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I HOPE THAT FORECAST ISN'T ACCURATE!  LOL  THE 2017-2018 WINTER, WE WERE WAAAAY COLD WITH NO SNOW DURING THAT COLD SNAP.

SEWER LINES WERE FREEZING & FOUNDATIONS WERE CRACKING... INCLUDING MY OWN!!!  

By metmike - Nov. 18, 2023, 4:01 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 27, 2023, 12:10 p.m.
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Quiet weather the next 10 days. The big question is what's coming in mid-December?

Models going back and forth on that.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100778/

By metmike - Nov. 30, 2023, 9:44 a.m.
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Looking mild the next 2 weeks.

By metmike - Dec. 8, 2023, 10:43 a.m.
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Looking extremely mild thru the rest of the month!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

By metmike - Dec. 8, 2023, 8:25 p.m.
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By metmike - Dec. 9, 2023, 1:44 p.m.
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As long as the NAO stays this positive, cold air will find it very difficult to penetrate very far south and to stay very long!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook

++++++++++++++++++

Climate Variability: North Atlantic Oscillation

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-north-atlantic-oscillation


By metmike - Dec. 18, 2023, 11:54 a.m.
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NAO and AO both plunging in early January.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

Building upper level heights in the higher latitudes could lead to a more favorable teleconnection to transport cold from high to mid latitudes in January. Initially, this will not be Arctic air. 

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.  This is early January below and the chill is especially noticeable, mainly in the Southeast compared to average.


https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly    

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - Dec. 25, 2023, 12:28 a.m.
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                Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan             

                            Started by WxFollower - Dec. 20, 2023, 9:19 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/

            


By metmike - Dec. 28, 2023, 10:21 a.m.
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Although the models were milder overnight, the Greenland block type anomaly in 2 weeks suggests a very solid cold air connection by mid January.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101515


Supporting that is the NEGATIVE AO and NAO.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101471

By metmike - Jan. 3, 2024, 11:06 a.m.
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The much colder outlook described in late December continues to play out in the forecast:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100525/#101558

                Snow event 1-6-2024                        

                Started by metmike - Jan. 2, 2024, 1:21 p.m.    

        https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101595/

By metmike - Jan. 10, 2024, 9:05 a.m.
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We're focusing on the specific metrics of the extreme weather in this pattern here:

               

 Winter Storms/COLD week of 1-7-24+            

                            Started by metmike - Jan. 7, 2024, 9:57 p.m.    

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101628/

 

By metmike - Jan. 14, 2024, 7:05 p.m.
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Bumping to the top, still tracking the POLAR VORTEX this week

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101628/#101713

By metmike - Jan. 16, 2024, 2:04 p.m.
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Latest weather analysis late week 2 from the natural gas thread:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101635/#101746

By metmike - Jan. 24, 2024, 12:30 p.m.
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The lsurface features of the last Canadian model show another Arctic blast towards the end of week 2!

By metmike - Jan. 30, 2024, 1:49 p.m.
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We have a very powerful jet stream screaming across the Pacific at greater than 200 mph(this map is in knots).

That usually floods the US with mild Pacific air as it tracks zonally from west to east.

However, when a jet stream like this buckles, you quickly see a new configuration that features amplified north to south flow(meridional). 

The buckling process is extremely unpredictable by the models.


This is the Pacific jet stream on day 11 on the last 12z GFS operational model.  WOW! The yellow is at the top of the chart and is  250 mph!!


By mcfarm - Jan. 30, 2024, 6:43 p.m.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZlICdawHRA    a funny happened on the way to global warming

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2024, 8:32 p.m.
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Thanks much, mcfarm. This guy is extremely sharp and most points are valid.

I remember watching this video years ago. It's almost 10 years old and a couple of his points, like the warming pause are not valid.

By metmike - Feb. 1, 2024, 12:49 p.m.
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The AO forecast is dropping hard and continues to favor high latitude cold pushing into the mid latitudes at the end of 2 weeks.

Positive high latitude height anomalies correlate with that.

The increasing PNA is also favorable for a ridge/west, trough east couplet.

However, the NAO is just neutral(to slightly negative) right now. I'm betting that it drops in future forecasts, after the models catch on better to whats going on in that region.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856

By metmike - Feb. 5, 2024, 2:01 p.m.
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Latest discussion on weather in the natural gas thread.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101635/#102094

By metmike - Feb. 10, 2024, 4:06 a.m.
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                Millions in California face historic rain            

                            Started by metmike - Feb. 5, 2024, 5:04 p.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/#102176

Outside of the fairly localized extreme event in the high population, Los Angeles area almost a week ago, these  atmospheric river events from the Natural El Nino have blessed California with wonderful beneficial rains.

Most places will gladly take a bit more of the exact same events(absent the tiny % of area with the extreme rains) with only a very tiny reservoir close to capacity. 

https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain

+++++++++++++

By metmike - Feb. 15, 2024, 9:01 a.m.
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The latest Winter storm  will rapidly track from the Midwest to the east with accumulating snow in Indiana by Friday PM.

See the New thread to cover that.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102298/

By metmike - Feb. 23, 2024, 3:30 p.m.
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Bumping to the top