7-25-24 1 week rains below. Drying out Plains to Midwest. Wet TX to South to Mid Atlantic.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly
7-18-24: 1 week rains directly below(do you see the 1 in 100 year rain event in southern IL? I didn't think so)
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/105984/
++++++++++++++++++
1 week rains thru early July 11, 2024
Rains the past week on July 4, 2024
+++++++++++++
Rains the past week on June 27, 2024(dry pocket from Central IL eastward).
One of the biggest problems has been TOO MUCH rain in the Upper Midwest.
This is the rain from the last week as of June 21, 2024
Rains forecast for the next week:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Rainfall the past week/7 days: June 19, 2024
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly
Previous week thru June 12, 2024
Recent rain amounts:
weathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
+++++++++++++++
You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.
Current Hazards at the link below.
Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
New radar product below
Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"
Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site
+++++++++++++++++++++++
This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
 Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you. https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps. The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link! |
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
UPPER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
LOWER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20# 
SOUTHCENTRAL
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15#
SOUTHEAST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18#
1. Weather map now.
2. In 24 hours and
3. In 48 hours.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 outlook
Severe Storm Risk......updated daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Current Day 1 Outlook | |
Current Day 2 Outlook | |
Current Day 3 Outlook | |
Current Day 4-8 Outlook |
Highs for days 3-7:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Lows days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
Extended weather.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
| 6 to 10 day outlooks | |||||||||
| Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |||||||||
| Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |||||||||
Temperature Probability | |||||||||
Precipitation Probability | |||||||||
| |||||||||
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Last map from July 17, 2024 release. Flash drought in ECB was wiped out.
Last map from July 10, 2024: more relief from flash drought from Beryl.
Last map is from July 3, 2024
AS ON JUNE 26, 2024 below. FLASH DROUGHT! ECB and CCB. But some areas to get relief!
Last week as of June 17, 2024-FLASH DROUGHT DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN CORNBELT BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORNBELT!!!
2 weeks earlier:
As of March 12, 2024: Drought in IA
January 30, 2024 below
DECEMBER 12, 2023 below
NOVEMBER 14, 2023
October 17, 2023
August, 2023, BELOW
April 18, 2023-1 year ago:
DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022-After a long lived La Nina-BEFORE EL NINO wiped out much of the drought OUT WEST the Winter of 2022/23!
Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!
Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/
NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22
23 responses |
Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m
EXTENDED MAPS BELOW UPDATE CONSTANTLY!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks.
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html 
2 week 850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/soil_temp_corn_emergence.html
Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/
Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.
Precip below..
Corn Belt (productivity weighted) rainfall rain 0.11" below normal in August and 1.03" below normal for the summer (driest summer since 2013)
More welcome rain/snow to help completely eradicate the drought in some places out West.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Funny how NO news/media are describing it that way.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
On the other side, that contradicts the truth, those sensationalizing to generate ratings and sell newspapers know that good news doesn't sell.
Officials warned of inundated streets, overflowing rivers and more snow in the mountains. The National Weather Service issued a rare “high risk” warning for the Central Coast.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/09/us/california-weather-rain-storm-flood.html
Highest snow pack in the last 10 years for the Southwest with more on the way.
This is astounding and just what the drought doctor ordered!
Why only reporting on how extreme and bad this is by media?
That doesn't sell!
This is mainly thanks to the global warming pattern/El Nino kicking in again in the Pacific after the pause caused by the La Nina(cold water in the tropical Pacific) which caused the drought....is over!
Climate change INCREASES precip!
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf
Thanks, Jean!
I remember talking with Jim Roemer a few times back in the early/mid 90's when he was part of the Freese-Notis, Trade-Winds commodity weather advising service. Craig Solberg too. I was mega impressed with their knowledge of how the weather impacted ag and energy markets, which was what I was making a killing doing in the 1990's from the get go.
This was before the internet and I had a satellite dish on the roof getting the weather information the same time the NWS did. Big funds used meteorologists that would take some time to update forecasts, then pass it on and I was already in before the market dialed in the updated forecast.
There were no algorithms jerking the markets around and they reacted much more predictably.
Today, they have in house models that are sometimes a few minutes faster than anything that I get.
Over 1,000 severe storm reports yesterday/8-7-23
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98002/#98044
This is incredible for August which is NOT severe weather season!!! Just 1 weak tornado in KS.
Yesterday's Storm Reports (20230807 1200 UTC - 20230808 1159 UTC) (Print Version)
| < 230806 Reports 230808 Reports > |
| Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary |
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html
As long as the NAO stays this positive, cold air will find it very difficult to penetrate very far south and to stay very long!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
++++++++++++++++++
Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan
Started by WxFollower - Dec. 20, 2023, 9:19 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/
Although the models were milder overnight, the Greenland block type anomaly in 2 weeks suggests a very solid cold air connection by mid January.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/#101515
Supporting that is the NEGATIVE AO and NAO.
The much colder outlook described in late December continues to play out in the forecast:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100525/#101558
Snow event 1-6-2024
Started by metmike - Jan. 2, 2024, 1:21 p.m.
We're focusing on the specific metrics of the extreme weather in this pattern here:
Winter Storms/COLD week of 1-7-24+
Started by metmike - Jan. 7, 2024, 9:57 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101628/
Millions in California face historic rain
Started by metmike - Feb. 5, 2024, 5:04 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102099/#102176
Outside of the fairly localized extreme event in the high population, Los Angeles area almost a week ago, these atmospheric river events from the Natural El Nino have blessed California with wonderful beneficial rains.
Most places will gladly take a bit more of the exact same events(absent the tiny % of area with the extreme rains) with only a very tiny reservoir close to capacity.
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/resapp/RescondMain
+++++++++++++
Early planting issues 3-20-24
12 responses |
Started by metmike - March 20, 2024, 12:22 p.m.
·
CPC predicts spring/early summer (April-June) in the U.S. Corn Belt is likely to be warmer than normal with normal to above-normal precipitation chances. This forecast covers planting through early development of the U.S. summer crops.
Tracking an early April snowstorm in the Northeast:
Historic -NAO intensity coming Mar 31 through early April
Started by WxFollower - March 29, 2024, 4:41 p.m.
Stormy weather April 1-5, 2024
14 responses |
Started by metmike - April 1, 2024, 6:34 p.m.
Total Solar Eclipse Day-April 8, 2024!!
16 responses |
Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 3:38 p.m.
Severe wx week of 4-14-24
Started by metmike - April 13, 2024, 1:26 p.m.
Very heavy rains coming up in the SouthCentral US!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
In places that have drought:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
Grains
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103397/
Wheat
Bumping to the top. MarketForum now has lighting loading time speeds!
Re: Re: UAH March-global temperature
By metmike - April 14, 2024, 3:01 p.m.
Temperatures this past Winter:
90 day periods-going backward
1. Jan-Feb-Mar
2. Dec-Jan-Feb
3. Nov-Dec-Jan
++++++++++
30 day periods-going forward
4. Nov 2023
5. Dec 2023
6. Jan 2024-only month to feature major cold
7. Feb 2024
8. March 2024
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
90 day periods
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
30 day periods
Wet in the Midwest but not excessive the next week.
VERY warm in the southeastern 1/3rd........but much cooler later in week 2(back to average).
Scroll down from the top to see the latest updates on every forecast weather map.
Severe weather May 6-7, 2024+
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103789/
UPDATED:
Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103838/
Weather Effects on Expected
Corn and Soybean Yields
https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/36651/39297_fds-13g-01.pdf?v=884.4
It took almost a week for me to get to my lawn because the rain never seems to stop. My grass looks good though. I noticed a couple brave farmers were out working some wet (small) fields
Thanks, Jim!
Ohio was actually the state farthest AHEAD of the average corn planting pace:
Welcome to June, 2024!
What will the upper level ridge in the West, to the Plains do late in the 2 week period?
Will it shift into the Midwest and turn the weather hot/dry, which is a potential La Nina Summer analog?
This was the 500mb map for June 15th on the last 0z European Ensemble.
I WATCHED A FEW VIDEOS ON YT. THE 10 DAY FORECASTS WERE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. SOME NASTY WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEST
Jean,
I'm not sure what qualifies for nasty but after a few more days of some wet weather in the Midwest(not too severe), it turns VERY quiet and unseasonable cool in the Midwest late in week 1, especially in your location, Ohio. That pleasant weather should last for a full week.
However, I'm seeing strong signals for a pattern change late in week 2 with the big upper ridge in the West shifting eastward into the Plains.
The cool and mostly dry weather should start heating up in mid June!
Extended weather:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |
| 6 to 10 day outlooks | |
| Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |
| Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
| Temperature Probability | |
| Precipitation Probability | |
| 8 to 14 Day Outlooks | |
| Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |
| Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability | |
++++++++++++++
Check out these CDD maps for the next 2 weeks from the just updated 0z European Ensemble model in purple on the right.
1. The Pacific region: normal increases slowly from just 1.5 to 2.5 as seen with the green line on the right during the 2 weeks below. Residential cooling demand can spike up like this during heat waves but is usually MUCH, MUCH less than the Midwest, East and South where the overall population is greater and hot/HUMID weather is more common. Heat waves in the West have MUCH lower humidities than in the East(but this contributes to wildfires). During this upcoming week, near record heat out West will briefly spike the CDDs to 7 which is around 4 times the normal. It stays hot out there in week 2 as the heat shifts farther east
2. The Midwest region on the 2nd map sees an average increase in CDDs (in green on the right) from 2.5 to an increasingly substantial 6 by mid June. After a very brief spike to 9 to start this week, temps plunge and CDDs are MUCH BELOW AVERAGE for an extended period but start recovering late in week 2.
3. This is the 45 day outlook for the entire country from the last European model run late last week. You can see how the first 2 weeks look more like the Midwest's signature because the Midwest counts so much more than the West/Pacific. What stands out is the rapidly building heat! Temps go ABOVE average during mid month and stay sustained WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THRU MID-JULY. This is POTENTIALLY bullish NG AND grains.
4. Mid June Upper levels
5. Drought monitor: Great shape everywhere........except KS that will get hurt in late June with intense heat.
++++++++++++++++++++++
45 days for entire country below:
++++++++++++++++++++++++
4. Upper levels mid June with individual ensembles from Canadian model. Upper level ridge shifts east. How strong? What location? Hot and dry will become a worry in the 2nd half of June for some locations!
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jun 18, 2024 00UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GE
5. Drought monitor: Midwest in great shape overall but NOT, KS. KS wheat which is filling will likely get hurt in late June with the new pattern.
Last week as of May 28, 2024-no drought in California from the Winter El Nino. Most drought in the Midwest is wiped out completely!
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
THE LATE PLANTED CROPS, IN MY NECCO-DA-WOODS, ARE GONNA NEED RAIN, WHEN THAT HEAT ARRIVES.
Here come da HEAT, starting in the middle of next week! Afterwards, that will define the rest of the month with the intensity and location moving around.
Rain amounts in some areas will be deficient and soil moisture, which is wonderful, almost everywhere will be drying up under the heat.
The 75% G/E first corn rating was a big factor for fund selling early in June!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104538
The next rest of June is going to start featuring heat with some areas drying up(especially the Eastern Cornbelt).......other areas will have enough rain to do well.......grow fast in the vegetative state with the heat accumulating Growing Degree Days for corn.
This was the last 12z GEFS run for total rains the next 384 hours.
Light blue is 2+ inches.
Rains the next 2 weeks on the last 12z European model.
Wimpy in the Eastern Cornbelt, along with heat )-:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104311/#104857
Flash Flood Emergency In South Florida
IN THE '70 ERA, WHILE I LIVING IN W.P.B. FL. ~ IT WAS A BIBLICAL RAIN EVENT. IT RAINED EVERY DAY, FOR 40 DAYS. THE ALLIGATORS WERE BEING TAKEN OFF THE HIGHWAYS... I HAD WALKING CATFISH IN MY CARPORT, BUT... THE SADDEST THING? THE CATTLE!! THEY WERE STUCK IN THE PASTURES!! SHARPSHOOTERS IN HELICOPTERS SHOT THEM... THERE WAS NO VIABLE WAY TO RESCUE THEM! UGH!!
NATURE CAN BE HORRIDLY CRUEL
There they go again in blaming climate change again for this fake "1 in 1,000 year" event.
Almost 4 inches of rain in 1 hour. An all time record for the amount of rain in just an hour............FOR THIS CITY.
Yes, that's a lot of rain and warmer global temperatures probably contributed at least +7% to that total but its not even close to a record for the United States.
Not even in the top 10. Probably in the top 100.
I'll start a new thread just on this tomorrow to show how absurd it is to call this a 1 in 1,000 year event.
++++++++++++
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
+++++++++++
These people cherry pick every extreme, as if there were no extremes in the past and tie them to climate change.
Another 1 in 1,000 year rain
Started by metmike - April 14, 2023, 2:55 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94542/
FLASH DROUGHT COMING TO THE ECB AS I FEARED the last week+ and the NWS is picking up on.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php
Bearish just over half the Cornbelt BULLISH the other half, ECB.
Re: Re: Re: Grains May 28, 2024+
By metmike - June 17, 2024, 9:51 a.m.
Just my local 2 cents. The lawns in NE Ohio went brown in a hurry. Looking more like August instead of June.
Thanks, Jim!
Latest weather updates here:
By metmike - June 20, 2024, 1:31 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: Grains May 28, 2024+
By metmike - June 21, 2024, 9:30 a.m.
Rainfall the last 72 hours.
Sorry you barely missed, cutworm )-:
It especially hurts when a rain event completely falls apart at your doorstep.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
NOT AS HOT forecast compared to last week!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104476/#105289
Total 384 hour rains from the 6z GEFS:
1.5 inches of wonderful rain here in southwest IN, yesterday evening!!
Beryl to enter the weather picture in the US early next week:
Bumping to the top.
WCB to see major heat and not much rain.
