Weather May-August 2022
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Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.

You can scroll down and get almost the entire comprehensive weather picture updated constantly here.

Current Hazards at the link below.

Go to the link below, hit hazards box in the top right hand corner(it will also define all the color codes), if its not already in the hazards mode when you load the link.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   

                                    


            

Latest National radar images


https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current


Static mapCA - BakersfieldNY - BinghamtonND - BismarckNH - BerlinTX - BrownsvilleKY - Bowling GreenMI - CadillacNC - CharlotteGA - ColumbusOH - DaytonCO - DenverIA - Des MoinesFL - Key WestVA - RoanokeCT - HartfordMO - Jefferson CityOK - LawtonNE - North PlatteAR - Little RockMT - LewistownLA - New OrleansID - McCallFL - Saint PetersburgSD - PierreAZ - PrescottUT - ProvoOR - RedmondWY - RivertonNV - RenoNM - RoswellTX - San AntonioVA - StauntonKS - SalinaIL - SpringfieldMN - Saint CloudWA - TacomaMS - Vicksburg

 

                                   


            This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then,  the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/


   
 Northwest Southwest Central Plains Northern Plains Southern Plains Midwest East Central Northeast Southeast 
Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you.
https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours
Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.
The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!
Comments
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:14 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:32 p.m.
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By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:33 p.m.
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Weather map now.

In 24 hours and

In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:34 p.m.
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Excessive rain threat.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml


Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast



                  

                            Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

              

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:35 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk......updated  daily(days 1 and 2 twice daily).

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                                                          


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:41 p.m.
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Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:


These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

July 26, 2022-update

       U.S. Drought Monitor

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Drought Monitor for conus



Image


@kannbwx

The drought monitor can sometimes be a lagging indicator, but the trend is backed up here by the monthly precip anomalies. That same problem area mentioned above has gotten well below normal rainfall this month. In fact, almost none of the Corn Belt has been distinctly wet.

Image


         Drought monitor previous years:

Image

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:49 p.m.
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Weeks 3-4 forecast updated every Friday mid afternoon.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

                  HOT!                  

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:52 p.m.
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Summer Forecast..........HOT and DRY except for Eastern Cornbelt:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

                 NEW: La Nina/-PDO with latest Summer Forecast 4-26-22           

                23 responses |             

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2022, 6:59 p.m

         

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2


/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

                                    


            

                

By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:57 p.m.
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Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

Ensemble Mean AO Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlook


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

Ensemble Mean PNA Outlook

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html

                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly                            

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product


By metmike - May 1, 2022, 7:21 p.m.
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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php


I think that any places dry enough to plant in the Upper Midwest will be good for planting, regarding soil temps at the end of this week(start of next week)!

Things WILL be warming up quickly then!

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 2:28 p.m.
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You can pretty much find out much of what you need to know about the comprehensive weather by just scrolling down thru this thread at any point in time.

That's actually what I do.

Instead of going to each link separately, I/you can just go here and scroll down, since most are updated constantly.

By metmike - May 2, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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Week 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/

Temperatures below. These maps are 1 day old.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.png

Precip below..

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.png

By metmike - May 3, 2022, 5:03 p.m.
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Temperatures have been extremely chilly the last 30 days, especially in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest. That's finally coming to an end in several days in several days.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/30day/mean/20220501.30day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - May 5, 2022, 2:10 p.m.
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Found a great new link/site that shows us how much precip fell(from 1 hr to 72 hours) for different periods to share with you. 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Data Update Cycle: The 1-hr mosaic is updated every 5 min (approx). All other mosaics are now updated hourly, including the 48h and 72h maps.

The site does not allow me to copy the actual images/data here, as we do with all the other links above..........so just go to the link!

By metmike - May 6, 2022, 3:45 p.m.
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Updated forecast for the end of May/start of June......take it with a grain of salt

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 12:52 p.m.
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ENSO discussion had its weekly update yesterday. La Nina is staying powerful, reinforcing the hot/dry Summer forecasts.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

By metmike - May 10, 2022, 4:48 p.m.
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Our weather is tracking extremely closely to the La Nina analogs!

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/

spring-season-temperature-anomaly-united-states-analysis-la-nina-pattern

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Current 8-14 day forecast:

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

The problem comes when the seasonal retreat northward of the jet stream occurs in June, the cold air also retreats north and  the heat ridge in the south marches northward!

June is still a month away, and other things can interfere with the currently strong La Nina signal.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83855

By metmike - May 12, 2022, 2:15 p.m.
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Weather is still bullish for NG and Wheat.

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 12:03 p.m.
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Just bringing this thread back to the top since its chock full of constantly updated weather data(more than any other thread here by a wide margin)

By metmike - May 16, 2022, 3:39 p.m.
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Increasing number of solutions building a major heat ridge late in week 2!

Major heat ridges in the Fall and Spring are usually more transient because of an active jet stream still in the mid latitudes that will dislodge them sooner or later.

Heat ridges in June, are more likely to establish a Summer pattern because there's no active jet stream around(it's migrated northward for the season).

This actually lines up with the La Nina analog and Summer forecasts, so it's a potentially ominous sign.

Not for sure, just the trend early this week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83698/

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 9:56 a.m.
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Big heat coming in late May/early June.

By metmike - May 18, 2022, 10:07 a.m.
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N. Plains dries  out.

S.Plains  gets some rain But not nearly as much as needed.

By metmike - May 19, 2022, 2 p.m.
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Just updated this morning:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/


Image



/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

                                    


            

                

By Jim_M - May 20, 2022, 1:59 p.m.
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Thank you for the update Mike!  

By metmike - May 20, 2022, 10:38 p.m.
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You're extremely welcome Jim!

By metmike - May 25, 2022, 11:21 a.m.
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Some of the biggest rain totals of the year in the drought areas of the S.Plains this week(crushing the grains, especially wheat)


https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

By metmike - May 26, 2022, 10:15 a.m.
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Several counties in SouthCentral KS got 5-7 inches of rain. Severe drought areas farther west got much less than that but the eastern areas of drought are gone in the S.Plains and western areas were helped.

This is what clobbered wheat prices the last several days!!

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

By Jim_M - May 26, 2022, 11:48 a.m.
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The question today is, what has grain prices on a tear?  In fact, everything with the exception of maybe Sugar seems to be on fire.  

By metmike - May 27, 2022, 4:32 p.m.
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Weeks 3-4, very low skill but could be showing the turn to hot/dry in the Cornbelt that defines the Summer La Nina analog.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

By Jim_M - May 31, 2022, 2:13 p.m.
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I imagine that if something sparks grains to go in an upward trajectory, it's going to be wild.  

By metmike - June 3, 2022, 1:19 p.m.
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Building heat ridge in week 2 is EXTREMELY impressive on some models.

By Jim_M - June 5, 2022, 4:26 p.m.
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After taking a gander at the 10-14 NWS, I’m thinking not only will we be up tonight, that it might be time to play the long side.  

By metmike - June 5, 2022, 7:09 p.m.
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That's the heat ridge I posted to you about last week, Jim!

Gap higher for natural gas could be an upside break away gap.

Dome of death, La Nina heat ridge developing in week 2!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83854

8 to 14 Day Outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 

                                    


By Jim_M - June 5, 2022, 10:13 p.m.
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GIDDYAP!  :)

By Jim_M - June 7, 2022, 12:08 p.m.
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Either the weather picture is coming more into focus, or the Ukraine grain picture is deteriorating rapidly.  Or both.  

By tjc - June 8, 2022, 10:17 a.m.
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 MetMike

  Here in North Central Illinois, LaSalle County, crops are off to a very nice start after a slightly late start.  We have received periodic rain, none gully washing.  IF anything, a little heat would be appreciated.

  HOW STRONG IS, WILL BE, the heat dome for the large corn growing areas of the I states?  Concern, or merely a spike to Friday and a retest of recent lows?

  TIA

Tim

By metmike - June 8, 2022, 12:42 p.m.
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No way to know tjc!  Great to read you.

This week was have been merely dialing in new risk premium based on the rain suppressing heat ridge/dome being there all of week 2 and the fairly high potential for it to continue in week 3.......and beyond.

If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.

If its seen as  just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower. 

The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer. 

I'm old enough to have been burned badly in the distant past many times for assuming anything about the week 3 weather to always be skeptical of all solutions that far out.  

We could come in next Monday and that period could look much different than it does right now. 

The first corn crop rating on Monday was much better than expected. You DON'T want to be long if the market thinks we have non adverse growing conditions.

Let's continue the great discussion here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85378/


By Jim_M - June 8, 2022, 3:11 p.m.
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Which solution?  You stated two scenarios.

"If we come in next week and it's still there on the same maps that are going out an additional week, these current prices will be left in the dust.

If its seen as  just transitory and breaks down, let's say after 10 days..........it will be seen as non threatening and we will go lower. 

The current La Nina in the Pacific strongly favors this solution for the Summer."  

By metmike - June 10, 2022, 5:48 p.m.
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Some recent  model runs have a trough in the Northeast and the heat ridge retrograding west to the Plains/Midwest.

This would be a bit bearish ng(compared the the heat ridge farther east) but potentially very bullish corn/beans.

How long will the impressive, rain suppressing heat ridge last and where will it be in week 3......which becomes week 2 next week, when the models have better predictive skill?

There WILL be an impressive heat ridge/dome, likely from La Nina driven forcing.

The location determines how bullish or not and to what commodity.



By metmike - June 13, 2022, 1:40 a.m.
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Forecast is close to expected. Troughing in the East/Northeast means cooler temps there where alot of people live........a bit bearish ng.

Heat ridge shifts west to the Plains, where less people live.

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:34 p.m.
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Bumping the important comprehensive weather thread to the top.

By cutworm - June 15, 2022, 2:06 p.m.
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Thank you for all the work you do to bring us this weather!

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 3:07 p.m.
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You're extremely welcome cutworm.......I love doing it!

By metmike - June 16, 2022, 12:58 p.m.
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By wglassfo - June 16, 2022, 1:26 p.m.
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It looks like corn doesn't tolerate high temps

Our 1st planted is approaching knee high. Mind you we have a lot of ankle high also as corn can't be planted in a day or two

Any way, our tallest corn was wilting in mid after noon temps

We even stop spraying in the heat, early morning and evening. Makes it hard to cover ground with part days spraying

So maybe some will get behind spraying and have to spray in mid day heat. Not good for corn with some of chemicals we have to us 

Over all our corn looks good just high temps bother me a bit

So far scattered showers keep soil watered enough

By metmike - June 17, 2022, 11:47 p.m.
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Thanks Wayne!


ImageImage

By metmike - June 19, 2022, 11:31 p.m.
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Heat ridge backing up west more and troughing in the Northeast late week 1, so less  heat to end the month and  in early July.

By metmike - June 22, 2022, 5:32 p.m.
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Latest models showing heat increasing again in week 2. Rains are uncertain.

By Jim_M - June 22, 2022, 5:59 p.m.
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Thanks Mike

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 11:51 a.m.
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YW Jim!

Models the last 24 hours have shifted the heat ridge farther southwest and allowed some NW type flow(ring of fire) activity in the Midwest, especially Upper Midwest so week 2 rains are NOW fairly robust(not much Eastern Cornbelt).  This is MORE rain than I was expecting earlier this week.

This is the wettest model, the last 6z GFS ensemble. Light blue is 2 inches...mostly week 2. 

By tjc - June 23, 2022, 1:31 p.m.
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MetMike

What is likelihood model becoming drier?

By metmike - June 23, 2022, 10:15 p.m.
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tjc,

I moved the conversation over to the crop discussion thread so I don't fill up the weather thread with too many words discussing the crop vs the weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86047/#86223



By metmike - June 24, 2022, 1:21 p.m.
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Latest drought monitor updated......DROUGHT EXPANSION THE LAST WEEK!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

By metmike - June 24, 2022, 5:19 p.m.
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Low skill weeks 3-4 just issued:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

                  HOT!


By metmike - June 26, 2022, 12:02 p.m.
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Latest weather above.

Increased rain chances farther east compared to Friday, most of it starts towards the end of this week and continues the first full week in July.

2 week totals below from the last 6z GFS ensemble run.

By metmike - June 29, 2022, 1:43 p.m.
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Interesting positive anomaly in North/Central Canada which can sometimes be a source of  cool air in the Midwest/Northern Tier from the northern stream.

That contrasts with the models wanting to build a heat ridge in parts of the US from the southern stream.

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html

                                    NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - June 29, 2022, 1:52 p.m.
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Rains should be picking up at the end of this week and could be fairly active next week with a northwest type flow regime.

Perturbations coming around/over the top of the heat ridge farther south, triggering clusters of showers/t-showers that are a day or so spaced out time wise.

Some of the perturbation energy may be coming from the northern stream, some may be coming from the Southwest Monsoon flow surging from the Southwest and circling/tracing out the periphery of the heat ridge.

Also, there is a Pacific stream in between that looks to potentially have some perturbations/waves which ride over the top of the heat ridge.


This is why the NWS has had above average rain in the extended guidance all week. That period is moving up to just 2 days from now.

This will be in addition to a front that moves back and forth in this same area.

By metmike - June 30, 2022, 12:08 p.m.
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By metmike - July 4, 2022, 11:41 a.m.
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Huge rains for much of the Cornbelt coming up.

However, the southwestern Cornbelt is in some trouble. Depends on where exactly the heat ridge completely shuts down the rains butthe cut off will be but KS/MO and points south, possibly into s.IL/sw.IN.

Looks great for Jim in ne.OH!

By metmike - July 5, 2022, 7:56 p.m.
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Bumping it to the top! Rains drying up in week 2 with cooler temps.


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

By metmike - July 7, 2022, 1:35 a.m.
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Bumping to top. Still looking much drier next week and beyond.

Cool next week but heating up after that. Bullish grains.

By metmike - July 8, 2022, 12:25 p.m.
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Same weather outlook. Lows are in for the grains.

By metmike - July 8, 2022, 6:05 p.m.
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By metmike - July 13, 2022, 5:13 p.m.
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Bumping weather to the top. 

What is still NOT showing up in the NWS products there........but the market knows is the pattern continues to feature the heat ridge backing up/retrograding to the west and introducing increasing northwest flow into the Midwest.

If it continues, I STILL contend the NWS 8-14 day outlooks will start increasing rains, first in the ECB. 

They actually added rains in the week 1 forecast today:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

The market ALWAYS, with few exceptions, reacts to these changes a couple of days before the NWS has them in their meteorologist interpreted products.

There's a ton of disagreement on models with regards to this. Most back up the dome but some shift it into the heart of the cornbelt.

This was the week 3/4 CFS forecast that helped crash the grains yesterday(and ng for awhile).

Cool and wetter.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949

USE THIS LINK: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/


By metmike - July 15, 2022, 3:03 a.m.
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@kannbwx

Forecasters believe #LaNina conditions will stick around through the end of 2022, but an ENSO-neutral scenario could take over in early 2023. Something other than La Nina usually bodes better for crops in southern South America (esp. Argentina) and the southern U.S. Plains.

Image

By metmike - July 18, 2022, 7:27 p.m.
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Sizzling heat and no rain in the red areas of the first map with extremely high confidence.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - July 19, 2022, 11:54 a.m.
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Euro and especially the GFS were wetter overnight.

Light blue is 2 inches of rain. Much of this comes in week 2:


                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 19, 2022, 7:05 p.m.
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Not surprisingly, the NWS this afternoon increased rain amounts in the Cornbelt a great deal on their week 2 guidance. Above average rain over some big areas:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

I have low confidence in this change and also, it could be transient.........as in last for a week or less, then go back to hot/dry.

By metmike - July 20, 2022, 11:33 a.m.
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Too much rain in the forecast for grains to rally. This was the last 6z GFS ensemble rain forecast for the next 2 weeks:


By metmike - July 20, 2022, 11:48 a.m.
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Weeks 3-4 forecasts don't have a great deal of skill show big heat in the East/Midwest back to the Midwest/Plains.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83949

By metmike - July 21, 2022, 1:07 p.m.
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Just updated this morning.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

This would be bullish for C and S.......but we have the big rains before then.

ImageImage

                                    


            

                

By tjc - July 22, 2022, 10:42 a.m.
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  Confirmation of less rain and heat??

By metmike - July 22, 2022, 2:43 p.m.
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tjc,

No confirmation of less rain and heat. The models don't look that different. When beans were up sharply and corn still down in the month of July, then it usually tells us the forecast did NOT change much.

My only thinking to explain today's action is that rains are now really close in the forecast and will get the corn crop much closer to being made, while the hot/dry forecast for August, will hurt the beans pod filling(their key development phase). 

There could have been a non weather item that I'm not privy to.

By metmike - July 24, 2022, 6:13 p.m.
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We took out alot of rain in the forecast for a big section of the Upper Midwest:

By metmike - July 25, 2022, 7:17 p.m.
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Weather is bullish for the grains........but HUGE rains southern half of Cornbelt this week.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

By metmike - July 27, 2022, 11:14 a.m.
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Not as much rains left southern belt as each day goes by.

Not much rain after that for most of the Cornbelt.

Not much change for the week 2 forecast.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87552/


By metmike - July 31, 2022, 6:06 p.m.
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Weather is much less bullish on Sunday for ng(much cooler) and grains, cooler and better chances for rain, especially ECB but also CCB and maybe even a chance in the WCB.


By metmike - Aug. 1, 2022, 11:54 a.m.
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No changes on Monday.

By metmike - Aug. 2, 2022, 10:27 p.m.
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Still cooler on Tuesday AM but could the heat ridge be making a come back east in week 2 here on the Tuesday PM guidance?

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2022, 1:44 p.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 8, 2022, 2:45 p.m.
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MUCH cooler outlooks this week!

By metmike - Aug. 11, 2022, 5:30 p.m.
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Coolest forecast of the Summer!

However, it looks like temps may warm up late in week 2. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852