Previous thread:
Good bye La Nina
16 responses |
Started by metmike - Jan. 19, 2023, 10:05 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92327/
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El Nino on the way, very high confidence and it’s coming much faster than expected previously!
Thats often good news for the upcoming growing season!
Growing season analogs with El Nino are for favorable weather, even though we're starting the year with widespread drought.
One of the few places with a colder than average ocean on the planet right now is the most important one. The East/Central tropical Pacific that determines La Nina/El Nino. But this is rapidly warming!
These negative temperature departures from average are NOT going to last. The water has already greatly warmed below and that warmer water should be coming to the surface during the rest of 2026. It's just a matter of time! It’s already happening with gusto!!
As a result, all the model take us to El Nino conditions.
Here's the thing to always keep in mind. The ENSO phase measurement/metric (La Nina/El Nino) is a 3 MONTH AVERAGE. This is a LAGGING INDICATOR.
The actual ocean/atmosphere will actually be in El Nino conditions for a couple of months BEFORE the average crosses into the El Nino threshold for NOAA to announce the official beginning of the new El Nino!
It would be like them telling us that Winter is here in January, after the 3 month average in temperatures Nov/Dec/Jan crossed low enough to make it Winter.
The huge weather pattern change here in February 2026 to much warmer because of the Pacific jet stream suddenly taking over (after the cold/dry pattern for previous months from La Nina) is the El Nino's impact already starting from the rapidly warming east/central tropical Pacific.
That doesn't mean the El Nino will take over like flipping a switch. Lingering impacts from the previous pattern could still persist for brief periods as they get weaker and weaker with the key area of the Pacific getting warmer and warmer. Becoming dominant over everything else.
The big thaw! 2-2-26
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117703/
Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
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A huge pattern change to much milder is coming, especially in the week 2 part of the forecast!
This below has been the weather pattern the past 2 weeks:
La Nina Winters have more amplified, meridional type flow........from north to south and a Greenland Block is more likely during a La Nina, like we have currently.
The pattern we had recently was an AMPLIFIED version of the La Nina signal depicted below.
https://www.hometownforecastservice.com/2020-2021-winter-outlook/
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Below is going to be the NEW pattern in 2 weeks. This is the jet stream at 250 mb which is 34,000+ above the ground, up where the commercial jets fly! Note the big upper level ridge building in the East.
The upper level trough in the East RECENTLY will be replaced with this upper level RIDGE. The steering currents there will be from the south, replacing the flow that had been coming from Siberia, with cross polar flow, thru Canada, then plunging deeply into the United States, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico as depicted on the map above.
https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php
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2-17-26: This La Nina has weakened the fastest ever with Pacific water temperatures really warming fast now. We should assume that means El Nino conditions and analogs should be adjusted accordingly. For instance, the current forecast for El Nino by late Summer should be MOVED UP. In fact, considering the lag time issue mentioned above, I would move up the El Nino impact to THIS SPRING with regards to real world, empirical data based weather condition analogs.
Past analogs don't always guarantee the future outcome. They only increase the odds. The complete opposite can happen because of something different, unrelated to the previous main forcing mechanism that caused the analog to happen interferes with or even becomes more dominant.
The same conditions as the analog can happen.................but cause the large scale features to shift/ be deflected by XXX miles from a new force that wasn't there before. That shift, for many locations might completely flip the impact of the El Nino to the opposite impact it had in the analog years.
Yes, it happens all the time and this is long range forecasting that has low skill. However, the United States is close enough to the source region of this main forcing agent/mechanism (east/central tropical Pacific) so the the El Nino impact is pretty direct. As opposed to Europe or Asia.
I'll have some good analogs later today with verbiage to adjust them based on how quickly this El Nino is coming on.
The dry soils currently wide spread are a result of the La Niña from last Summer to last month.
This pattern is DEAD!
The new pattern will feature a rapidly developing El Niño.
I will speculate that the atmosphere could be in early El Niño mode already this Spring, responding quickly to positive temperature anomalies by that time.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather May 2022
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
Support for all MRCC-hosted products and services is currently suspended as of April 17, 2025, due to a lapse in federal funding from the Department of Commerce through NOAA.
NEW LINK:
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
Thru February 10, 2026
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Drought expanding this Winter from Southern Plains, northeastward.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Published August 24, 2023
Since this El Nino is coming on faster than any previous one, we have to assume that the upcoming Summer will be greatly impacted by El Nino.
The images above give us the picture worth 1,000 words.
Odds are elevated this year for favorable growing conditions.
Weather forecaster David Schlotthauer talks possible “super” El Niño heading to the Pacific Ocean this fall; what does that mean for surfers?
https://www.surfer.com/news/super-el-nino-2026-weather-expert-warning
I love this guy's comprehensive analysis and explanations!
This one is 3 weeks old and his temperature forecast for February is busting bad(not nearly warm enough). Regardless he still has some good explanations on how things work and what is probably coming up.
By Author Andrej Flis
I have high confidence (for a longer range forecast) that this rapidly developing El Nino will already be impacting the weather in the US early in the growing season.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
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https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
| Season | La Niña | Neutral | El Niño |
|---|---|---|---|
| FMA | 4 | 96 | 0 |
| MAM | 1 | 90 | 9 |
| AMJ | 0 | 65 | 35 |
| MJJ | 1 | 41 | 58 |
| JJA | 3 | 39 | 58 |
| JAS | 4 | 35 | 61 |
| ASO | 6 | 33 | 61 |
| SON | 9 | 33 | 58 |
| OND | 10 | 30 | 60 |
Note above that the MAJORITY of models(58%) predict an El Nino by May/June/July, which means El Nino will be in place already by Spring and the entire Summer(June/July/August) will feature an El Nino.
This is my forecast right now, in fact, El Nino by AMJ is possible.
Soil moisture is low across large portions of the Cornbelt. The planting season isn't going to really get going until early April. Dry soils/weather early on is good for accelerating/advanced planting. However, this year could feature an elevated threat of beneficial, soil recharging rains that keep producers out of the fields BEFORE the planting season is over.
This is at a distant time frame that has LOW skill and during a transition to the El Nino so so rainfall forecast for this Spring is very low confidence.
Dry soils are a bigger impact on weather forecasts in Summer(when weather systems use some of that moisture and wet soils help suppress temperatures) , especially late Summer. Less impactful in the Spring.
El Nino's tend to reduce Atlantic basin hurricanes because of the increased wind shear.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/impacts-el-nino-and-la-nina-hurricane-season
Extended Range Forecast for North
Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2026
Issued: 11th December 2025
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2026.pdf
https://www.trackthetropics.com/
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March is a little more certain that Baby Boy is coming.
Thanks, Patrick!
Now you're speaking my language
Thanks very much for reminding me that I've been neglecting this important topic the past week.
And as I explained earlier, the "official" El Nino is a lagging indicator because its a 3 month average.
The real world El Nino will start impacting the atmosphere BEFORE we are told it's an El Nino.
However, the initial impact will only be for weak conditions that amplifies (probabilities) with time this year as your great bar chart shows.
As you probably already know, the modest global cooling from the recent La Nina's will flip to modest global warming that will ADD to the greenhouse gas warming(from humans burning fossil fuels) which will likely result in global temperatures going back up again.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118356/
Global temperature update for February 2026
Started by metmike - March 3, 2026, 12:23 p.m.
The Version 6.1 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for February, 2026 was +0.39 deg. C departure from the 1991-2020 mean, up a little from the January, 2026 value of +0.35 deg. C.
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through February 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
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We should note that the drop in global temperatures the past year is likely connected to the almost dead La Nina(cool temp anomalies in the Eastcentral tropical Pacific).
We are rapidly warming temps at that location and should be in El Nino mode this Summer. This will likely assist with the greenhouse gas warming from CO2 and cause global temperatures to go back up.
Maybe not new record highs for awhile but the expectation (from me) is that the global temperature anomaly will be HIGHER a year from now.
By patrick - March 24, 2026, 2:07 p.m.
Mud time in New England, despite the long term drought. Not so much in the South-
Just to note, the reservoir is 9' below normal.
The road there, otoh..
Hopefully the El Nino will replenish it with rains/water like it often does.
Thanks very much, Patrick!
I updated our drought page with that last week of data thanks to you.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
We'll be tracking this drought week by week, very closely as we get into the growing season.
Each year is different but El Nino's (from a warmer eastern Pacific tropical ocean) greatly increases chances for decent rains.
From that page:
DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022-After a long lived La Nina-BEFORE EL NINO wiped out much of the drought OUT WEST the Winter of 2022/23!
Contribution to the current drought in the eastern 2/3rd of the country from climate change? Negligible. The natural La Nina(which is colder water and actually the opposite of what global warming will do=more El Nino's) is mostly responsible.
Climate change has definitively PROTECTED the Midwest from droughts. Only 1 major/severe drought since 1988 in 2012. When that area was averaging a major drought every 8 years in the old, cooler climate with less CO2.
The Dust Bowl DECADE of the 1930s and the 1800's(that had 3 separate Dust Bowls) in the old climate were caused by colder climates and lower CO2(Higher CO2 makes plants more drought tolerant/water efficient).
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#109795
However, the Western US has in fact been hotter and with higher evaporation rates from climate change because drier air has radiation absorption bands that are not saturated by H2O which is the main greenhouse gas that overlaps with the same bands as CO2.
Air that is heated more can hold more moisture but also increases the lifting condensation level to form clouds and NEEDS MORE moisture to saturate the air mass in order to start condensing out the moisture.
Warm/HUMID air can't be heated much more from added CO2 because their radiation absorption bands are saturated from the H2O!
CO2 warming is also logarithmic.
Re: Re: Re: Historic SW US March heatwave
By metmike - March 19, 2026, 1:17 p.m.
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I greatly respect this atmospheric scientist and his work but he may be biased with his interpretation in this study that precipitation has remained steady.....or maybe I'm wrong.
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-long-term-western-precipitation-trends-stable.html
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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us-precipitation-1901-2019-a-decade-by-decade-look
NOAA/NCEI breaks the contiguous U.S. into nine different climate regions as shown above. From the Climate at a Glance website, the average per-decade regional change in precipitation for the period of 1901-2019 has been as follows:
Northeast: + 0.44” per decade
Southeast: + 0.12” per decade
Upper Midwest: + 0.38” per decade
Ohio Valley: + 0.39” per decade
South: + 0.33” per decade
Northern Rockies and Plains: + 0.11” per decade
Southwest: - 0.01” per decade
Northwest: + 0.12” per decade
West: + 0.01” per decade
As can be seen, all regions of the country have seen an average decadal increase in precipitation since 1901, aside from the Southwest region, which has seen a slight decrease. The most pronounced increases have been in the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Upper Midwest.
It is obvious that most regions of the country have seen an increase in precipitation over the past three decades, with this trend most pronounced in the northeast quadrant of the contiguous U.S. The southwestern quadrant of the country has not seen this increase; it also has not seen much, if any, decrease in precipitation,
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OK, I guess that I am wrong about the West being drier, however, the warmer temperatures in the Southwest are increasing evaporation/drying rates which HAS THE SAME IMPACT as less precip.
ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
30 March 2026
Look at region 1.2 at the bottom!!!(the first to warm up in the east and that warm water spreads west)
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Look at the very warm water anamolies off the coast of Mexico that developed at a near record pace(from warming below)!
Rapid warming in the entire ENSO region.
Upper ocean heat content has soared higher during the entire Winter.
Some very warm temp anomalies will be coming to the surface!
This is the prediction below. Clearly headed to El Nino land. However, as mentioned many times here, this is a 3 MONTH AVERAGE! That is a lagging indicator. Everybody that uses technical analysis involving cross overs of shorter term averages will understand this but with ENSO and water temperatures of a massive body of water its more indisputable because they don't whip saw back and forth.
The Pacific Ocean and atmosphere above it are already into El Nino mode!!!
But the metric to formally dub it "El Nino is here everybody" is when the average of a 3 month period meets the El Nino temperature standard set by the El Nino declaring gatekeepers.
Right now, that average is still dialing in the colder anomalies of January and February into the much warmer March.
But it's April 2nd and the atmosphere isn't waiting around for NOAA to tell it that we have an El Nino when ocean temperatures have already crossed the threshold. And even that threshold is not a magical mystery boundary which acts like flipping a switch.
The warmer it is, the stronger the El Nino type impact, whether its just under the El Nino threshold or a Super El Nino.
The colder it is in La Nina land, the more pronounced the La Nina type impact.
This is also very likely why rains have picked up in drought areas of the United States recently and odds favor us seeing more drought relief this Spring and having the potential for good growing season weather.
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