Rachel Ramirez
According to the media today:
https://matzav.com/wild-1-in-1000-year-flood-sweeps-through-dallas-area/
“The severity of the storm qualifies it as a “1-in-1,000-year flood,” according to The Washington Post, adding that over the last week, three 1-in-1,000 year rain events have hit the U.S., in St. Louis, eastern Kentucky and southeastern Illinois.”
They meant the last month.
ABC Nightly News this evening carried the caption " a one-in-a-thousand-year flood" during the entire time of this top story coverage a short while ago.
metmike: They made that up.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FayGosRWAAE5fw6?format=jpg&name=large
We're supposed to believe that the extreme rain events from 2022 and 2018 were from climate change but similar events in 1932 and 1922 were from natural variability of the weather.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
They just keep vehemently violating the indisputable authentic science to support the politically manufactured/fake climate crisis.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88225/#88226
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The Golden Rule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDEN RULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
Previous thread showing them doing the exact same dishonest thing using junk science less than a month ago.
Any extreme of any sort today was caused by the fake climate crisis.
Record rain in St.Louis is what climate change looks like?
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Summary-US-State-Historical-Precipitation-Extremes
Rocky Mountain states are very deficient when it comes to high precipitable water values needed for high end record rains but all the other southern states have had rains similar to this or higher during the last 130 years.........most BEFORE the fake climate crisis.
The TX record for 24 hour rains was set in 1979 from the remnants of Tropical Storm Claudette......42 inches. That's almost 3 times the top amount of rain that fell in this event for a 24 hour period.
And 1979 isn't 1,000 years ago!
I'm not saying that a great deal of rain didn't fall........just that natural variation of weather by far, played the biggest role and it would be a stretch to even call it a 1 in 100 year event.
Maybe 1 in 25 year event would be most scientifically accurate based on the empirical data that I show here vs the made up climate crisis using scary words, sensationalism and deception.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/extreme-rainfall-precipitation-recorded-50-states
Since Dallas has had 4 events similar to this in the last 100 years, including the record in 1932, that means this was a 1 in 25 year event and at that rate, in 1,000 years, we would expect events similar to this to happen 40 times!
So the media is exaggerating the extreme frequency time scale associated with this event by a factor of 40!
ABC Nightly news kept the caption " a one-in-a-thousand-year flood" on during the entire time of this top story coverage.
Definitely worthy of the top story but their descriptions and verbiage used to compare it with flooding history turned it into historical science fiction.
Matthew Cappucci@MatthewCappucci
BREAKING: White Rock Creek @ Lawnview, in Dallas, Tex., is up to 15.47 inches of rain. That's more than what's fallen *all year*.
This is an event of historical significance made more likely to occur by the effects of human-induced climate change.
10:14 AM · Aug 22, 2022·Twitter Web App
Rachel RamirezAmid an exceptional drought, Dallas got an entire summer’s worth of rain in less than a day. Climate change has increased the potential for this sort of weather whiplash, in which dramatic swings in periods of drought and rain can occur more often.
In recent decades there has been a deintensification of extreme weather (precipitation) events.
https://www.ranker.com/list/worst-floods-in-history/eric-vega?page=4
1. August 1931 Yangtze River, China 3,700,000 killed
2. September 1887 Yellow River, China 2,000,000 deaths
3. June 1938 Yellow River, China 800,000 deaths
4. August 1975 Banqiao, China 230,000 dead
5. 1935 Yangtze River 145,000 dead
6. November 1530 St. Felix Flood, Holy Roman Empire/Europe 100,000+ killed
7. August 1971, Hanoi/Red Rivers, North Vietnam 100,000 dead
8. May 1911 Jiangsu-Anhui, China 100,000 dead
9. December 1287 Holy Roman Empire/Europe 50,000+ dead
10. September 1949 Guatemala 40,000 dead
11. June 1954 Yangtze River, China 30,000 dead
12. June 1974 Bangladesh 28,700 dead
13. January 1362 St. Marcellus Flood-Ireland/Britain/N.Germany 25,000+ dead
14. November 1570 All Saints Flood Netherlands 20,000+ killed
15. December 1999 Vargas mudslides Venezuela 20,000 dead
How many of these events took place in the last 40 years?
Answer= 1
How many were caused by climate change =0
-----------
Indeed, Mike, they're full of bullocks in calling this DFW 9.19" rainfall a 1 in 1,000 years event with those others, especially #1 being higher and #3 being almost as high. Also, those two were before AGW had really gotten going.
The world has warmed around 1 deg. C over the last century. The warming has been much more than that over the coldest and driest places of the Northern Hemisphere.
Texas has warmed just less than the global average.
An air mass that is 1 Deg. C warmer is capable of holding almost 7% more moisture.
Let's apply that meteorological/physical principle to this rain event to see how much additional rain that global warming could have caused.
At Dallas
Old climate =8.59 inches of rain
New climate = 8.59" X .07 = 0.60" additional rain to get 9.19"
Mike,
To be fair, however, I just did more digging and found this:
"Even heavier totals were observed just east and south of downtown Dallas, on par with amounts one might expect in such a short period only about once every 1,000 years. The highest reported as of Monday night was 15.16″ at a gauge within the Dallas Area Flood Alert System located at White Rock Creek and Scyene Road. At least two CoCoRaHS stations, which typically report once each morning, recorded more than a foot of rain for the entire event, including 12.42″ near Mesquite and 12.31″ just northeast of downtown Dallas."
From here:
And look at this:
"Rather large swath of 10"-15" in the past 12 hours extends from downtown Dallas east along I-30 and also southeast to Loop 12, then continues southeast. Keep in mind that 1 in 1000 year rainfall interval in this area over 12 hours time is ~12"."
https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmanvic/status/1561736080029777922
So, IF it isn't the 9" official rain, itself, that they're calling 1 in 1,000 years but rather the nearby metro locations where they got 12-15" of rain 1 in 1,000 years, then that may be fair to say.
Now even with that being said, Mike, them concluding this wouldn't have occurred without CC is a whole other story. Think about it this way. With many thousands of locations in the US measuring rainfall, aren't we bound to see several 1 in 1,000 year floods within the same year or even the same season even from totally separate events just based on the normal statistical distribution, especially in a narrow swath like this?
Thanks Larry,
Great points.
I showed those amounts that were as much as 15.47"+ in an outlying area, here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88256/#88263
Please note how tiny the area of 10"+ (radar returns on the top map overestimate) and the 15.47" though being huge was 1 isolated spot.
Again, with regards to this being a 1 in 1,000 year event and looking at the records below.
Do we really think that in 1932 and 1922 that Dallas was the epi center for the heaviest rain?
It's extremely more likely that it was an event similar to this one that featured much heavier amounts of rains outside of that one tiny spot where a rain gauge was in Dallas.
We have to compare apples to apples and compare data from 1922/1932 to similar data from 2022.
An event that causes 9 inches in a short period, that sticks around for several more hours or is amplified 25 miles away can easily be 15 inches.
We can't know that with certainty but its scientifically dishonest by these sources to take the 15 inch amount and claim similar events 90 and 100 years ago didn't also feature similar amounts(when the technology didn't allow us to measure like we can today).
So its likely that there were 4 similar events to this, making fair historical comparisons based on similar data available during the last 100 years.
I was not finished with my computations and the next one was for 15.47" compared to before global warming.
How much rain would have fallen, where an isolated 15.47 inches of rain fell if this were the climate of 100 years ago?
Around 14.46" of rain. ............all things held constant except adding 1 Deg C to the air mass and assuming that the dynamics were a bit stronger in order to saturate that warmer, harder to saturate air mass that can now hold 7% more moisture than it could 100 years ago.
So an inch of extra rain in the spot with the heaviest rain.
Most sources push this false narrative..........."This makes the climate of 100 years ago superior because of the additional flooding potential in 2022"
Going back to the climate of 100 years ago at 1 deg. C cooler and 120 parts per million less CO2 would likely cause 1 billion people to starve within 3 years.
Let's find out why.
The last 30 years has featured the best living and crop growing conditions in the last 1,000 years but in a addition, for every increase in CO2 of 5 ppm, we get around 1% more food production. That's +24% just from the CO2 going from 300 ppm to 420 ppm.
The beneficial weather is likely contributing to this by as much as 6%.
Is it worth taking away an inch of rain in the most extreme rain events like this to reduce world food production by 30%? 1+ billion people in the world starving?
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
Cold deaths are still 10+ times higher than heat deaths.
This rationale that today's climate is worse than 100 years ago because of climate change would be like a person taking $10,000 cash to invest in a new company that makes them $100,000 in non cash equity.
And then, people that didn't like that company claiming that he lost $10,000..........the difference between how much cash he had BEFORE and how much he has NOW............while ignoring the $100,000 value of his equity in the investment that he gave up the cash for.
Yes, climate change has some negatives but all we hear is about those negatives and then they amplify those by an order of magnitude and say exactly ZERO about the benefits which are MUCH greater than the negatives.
Do you agree with that, Larry or others?
Almost everywhere you look, there is only tons of exaggerated bad things about the beneficial warming and CO2 to fit the fake climate crisis narrative.
People fed the constant stream of this junk science for decades now, who don't have weather records or a degree in atmospheric science or biology or agronomy......don't know anything different.
Kids graduated from college now have read/heard nothing but this since they learned how to read.
Since we are on Texas, like at this link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_in_Texas
In February 2021, Texas experienced terrible snowstorms and wide-range unexpected power outages that was uncommon in history, which might caused by climate change based on related researches.
Global warming now causes cold and snowstorms that happened more frequently BEFORE the global warming.
This is ANTI science, DISinformation. Propaganda being used to kill fossil fuels and replace them with things like the most anti environmental form of energy of all..........wind.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27498/#88241
Ginger Zee, ABC news meteorologist tonight on the Nightly News:
"If you have a flash flood warning for your area, stay at home and don't drive"
Wow! This lady makes $500,000/year and is giving that advice to people as an authority for a major national news network.
https://www.weather.gov/arx/usflood
2022 Flood Fatalities:
 |
| |||||||||||||||||||||
I was chief meteorologist for WEHT-TV for 11 years, making less than 10% of her salary.
The correct advice is:
1. Don't drive into water of unknown depth.........ever, especially if it's moving water: "turn around, don't drown!"
It's ok to drive in that county during a flash flood warning. Just don't go into low lying areas or flood prone areas and go the other way if you encounter rising water.
2. The number killed from drowning is usually highest in cars. This year, alot of people drowned in homes. If you live in a low lying, flood prone area, be prepared to evacuate to higher ground. Know your risk and stay tuned to weather conditions. In flood prone areas, DO NOT stay home, unprepared and allow yourself to be killed from drowning because of ignorance.
Here's some great advice from CNN:
Tips for staying safe in flooding
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/29/weather/flooding-safety-preparedness-kentucky/index.html
This isn't 1922, it's 2022. We have the technology to warn almost all people well in advance of severe weather risks that will save almost all the lives of people being smart, following basic precautions/rules, like those above.
The media and politicians want you to think otherwise and that we have to spend trillions of dollars on things like extremely anti environmental wind turbines to save us from fossil fuels that are killing everybody from a completely fake climate crisis.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87294/#87348
Weather/Climate related deaths have been reduced by 95% over the last 100 years.
These are the main reasons causing these false narratives and junk science:
Money, politics/power, ratings, egos/cognitive bias.......NOT authentic science or energy principles.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27498/#88241
https://www.wsfa.com/2022/08/25/rare-1000-year-rain-events-keep-adding-up/
metmike: The title should read "abuse of climate science terminology, exaggeration and alarmism in meteorology continue to ramp up.........completely out of control in 2022"
1 in a 1,000 year deceptive journalism/reporting on stories is now becoming the norm (-:
++++++++++++++++++
Richard B. (Ricky) Rood, University of Michigan
metmike: Seriously? They are showing people an extreme IPCC, busted model projection of conditions being 4 Deg. C, 7 Deg. F higher?
There is almost no chance for warming to amount to that level this century, even in people that are pretty extreme with their views.
For reasonable scientists, there is NOBODY that believes this will happen. Even 3 deg. C warmer is unlikely before 2100.
The author is either:
1. Ignorant about climate science
2. Wants to scare people
3. Is sensationalizing to increase attention/sales and push a political agenda
For sure this is irresponsible science reporting and poor journalism based on the old standards. In today's world of journalism, especially regarding the fake climate crisis, journalists can manufacture anything they want and never be held accountable.
Many journalists are also activitists using their profession to push messages vs reporting objective facts and telling more than 1 side(there's).
By Georgina Rannard
BBC News Climate and Science
2 days ago
"Pakistan received nearly 190% more rain than its 30-year average from June to August - reaching a total of 390.7mm."
"All of this is happening when the world has warmed by 1.2C - any more warming than that is a death sentence for many people in Pakistan," he adds.
metmike§This is their math:
+7% moisture in the air from climate change/global warming = 190% more rain in Pakistan this Summer. This continues to be eye rolling absurd.
+++++++++++++++++++++
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88256/
They just keep vehemently violating the indisputable authentic science to support the politically manufactured/fake climate crisis.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88225/#88226
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDEN RULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
This is just more of the same old exaggerating of weather caused by almost all natural variations that have been happening before humans existed.
NEW: Record rain in St.Louis is what climate change looks like?
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87562/
NEW: Hot Summer NOT caused by climate change/the science:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87422/
NEW: Heat Wave Hysteria:
