As expected, the Winter wheat deteriorated a bit more(-1%), which is why the KE wheat had modest gains, while the MWE and ZW were not up much.
Here's the deal with that.
The HRW crop is so bad right now, that it's impossible for condition to deteriorate more in those locations.
#1 producer, Kansas for instance is now only 13% G/EX and 61% P/VP. If you completely killed the entire crop in KS, which will never happen, the G/EX rated crop would still only drop 13%!
Rains this month would cause a decent improvement but anything close to trend is off the table for the HRW crop.
The SRW can still be above trend.
The MWE hasn't even been planted but the snow cover right now means it will not be early. However, yields will be determine by weather in M-J-J-A
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1423.txt
U.S. winter #wheat at 27% good/excellent is record low for April 9 (tied with 1996), suggesting weak yield potential without a sudden and rapid improvement in the weather. Unfortunately that's not in the near-term forecast.
Works the same way with poor/very poor, which was 37% of the U.S. winter #wheat crop as of April 9. That is second worst on record for the date after 41% in 1996.
Just for fun, I labeled all the years.
Kansas usually accounts for 25% of U.S. winter #wheat output and 17% of total U.S. wheat output. Only 16% of Kansas wheat was in good/excellent shape as of last week, skewed by the heavy wheat concentration in the south/west. Stack this up against the latest Drought Monitor.
Spring precipitation is much more critical for a winter #wheat crop versus fall or winter precip, and March was not so great in that regard. SW and SC Kansas (41% of the state's crop) had top 10 driest Marches (out of 129 years).
Now including some seasonal precipitation data. For example, southwest Kansas, the state's leading #wheat region, saw 27% of normal precip between Oct-March, the third driest Oct-March in records going back 128 years.
metmike: I copy this lady's graphs/data here because they ARE THE BEST!!!!
Temperatures were not a big factor last week, except that it was too cold in the N.Plains to melt much snow.
Warmth for the SRW is helping the crop to come out of dormancy. There is still a bit of uncertainty about any damage to the SRW crop from temps well down into the 20s for as many as 5 nights after the extremely mild weather that coaxed the crop to partially come out of dormancy. Reports so far suggest that damage was mostly minor. Burned foliage and so on but not killing the growing point.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
This is something to be concerned with about the Spring Wheat crop with the current snow pack and cold week 2 forecast.
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https://extension.umn.edu/planting-small-grains/late-planting-spring-small-grains
Wheat, barley and oats are cool season annuals that are most productive when they grow and develop during cool weather.
The crop’s yield potential is largely determined by 6-leaf stage. Cool temperatures during this period are particularly important to develop high yield potential. For example, the number of tillers that ultimately produce grain at harvest declines as planting is delayed (Figure 1).
The number of spikelets per spike is determined during the 4- to 5.5-leaf stage (Figure 2). Spikelet numbers are negatively correlated with temperature; you get more spikelets per spike when temperatures during the 4- to 5.5-leaf stages are cool.
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data).
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
All the comprehensive weather maps here:
The weather forecast is still bullish for KE but as has happened several times now since the March 31 USDA planting intentions report came out, wheat has a spike higher but can't hold and it reverses lower.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: April 3, 2023 crop condition/wheat
By metmike - April 3, 2023, 5:31 p.m.
The USDA report on Friday was pretty bearish for HRW wheat because of the surprise with increased acreage. Stocks were slightly higher too.
Scroll down at this link to get the entire USDA report:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94162/#94236
U.S. #wheat plantings come in heavier than expected due to higher winter and durum acreages, but spring wheat acres come in below both expectations and last year.
U.S. farmers report that they significantly increased plantings of winter #wheat for the 2023 harvest versus last year. +2.2M acres in KS & TX alone. Winter wheat acres at 37.5M is an 8-year high.
Here's how the March intentions for 2023 U.S. winter #wheat plantings differ from the 2023 winter wheat seedings back in January - 2% growth overall.
The USDA report is what's most stifling to wheat right now. It's also just mid April and rains can still come to help the crop.
Also, as mentioned at the top. The HRW conditions are SO BAD right now, that even the worst weather is only going to result in small weekly ratings declines. The futures markets trade on anticipating the future CHANGES to what it knows right now. This market has already dialed in the worst ratings in history with bad weather coming up.
Next week will feature...........the worst ratings in history with bad weather coming up.
Who doesn't already know this???
If we see a nice rain event in the forecast..........THEN, the market will need to dial in a huge slug of bearish information........lower prices.
The developing El Nino increases the chance of rain this Spring and especially during the main growing season
The SRW crop still looks to be in great shape(east of the MIss River + the state of MO).
USDA April 11, 2023
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94387/
Models took some rain out of the S.Plains forecast Tue overnight and gave the KE a nice pop........but once again, it couldn't hold the gain this Wednesday morning.
Wheat was unable to hold gains this month, even when the crop ratings and weather were most bullish.
As mentioned, with the worst crop ratings ever for the HRW crop........there's not much room to get worse. So the market has traded and dialed it into the price for now.
Also, there has been some signs for increasing rains in week 2 that the NWS has been picking up in the 6-10/8-14 day outlooks that I apparently can't see to the extent that they do.
KE has been down over 20c today, maybe that's the biggest reason why. We do have a rapidly amplifying El Nino that greatly amplifies rain chances the next several months.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94277/
All the weather: https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
KE wheat +20c.
so it looks like the wet NWS extended outlooks that I said I couldn’t see and were apparently driving the price lower…..will be wrong.
much drier today and lining up with my forecasts all week.
MetMike
North central Illinois here.
Miserable, wet, cool (cold), snow likely tomorrow morning. (Contrast, Grandpa and grandson (16) 'competed' in two man scramble saturday in 80 temp (wind picked up). Rest of week not so good--chances rain most days, temps not nearly as nice last week. Next week cooler than average.
I foresee no field work this week (moisture IS welcomed).
Time to (re)buy grains?? (No/little rain in wheat areas needing it to somehow help crop AND too much rain for favorable 'early' planting ((yield enhancement)) in Mn wheat and corn bels)
Your Sunday night prognostication, please! (Is weather 'all' priced in on Friday, or further gains?) I suggest, "Buy any dip"
Hi tic,
im in Lexington KY for my gdaughters cheer competition this weekend and won’t be back until late today but will try to post something asap.
ENJOY!
Exactly what grandpa did yesterday!
Crazy but my granddaughter was there for the competition Saturday. Grandma got to go but I was in the field.
Wheat here in my part of IN looks great.
Thanks tjc and cutworm!
If I had to guess, I would say more rain in the forecast for the HRW is putting pressure on the price tonight with the price more then -11c, after gap opening higher. Technically, this is a weak bearish gap and crap lower but since the reversal higher on Friday was a 1 day thing and pretty powerful at +30c, I don't put alot of weight in tonights action.
Cold weather for the MWE/HRS crop in the N.Plains/MN is a bit bullish and means planting delays so its only -6c. Still early to worry a lot about planting.
I wonder if Friday's rally on drier weather in the S.Plains was helped alot from this current storm in the N.Plains/MN with cold and even snow.
ZW is only -4c.
Very chilly weather thru much of April will slow planting in many locations but its still very early to worry much about planting delays.
The precip map below from the last 12z European ensemble below out thru 384 hours shows the 1 inch precip band all the way back to far sw. KS. The 2 inch band is along the KS/MO border.
Drier than that in the N.Plains but very chilly.
Here's all the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Week 2 forecasts. Very chilly but dry Upper Midwest.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Drought Monitor:
April 11, 2023
Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!
The ending of La Niña in 2023-heading towards El Nino, is causing the opposite weather-bombarding us with moisture.…..too much in some cases. This is a natural cycle NOT climate change!
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83880
Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination.
This map is updated daily(with previous days data). This upcoming shot of heat will warm temps but producers won't be doing widespread planting in the Midwest, except south for awhile.
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php
This is the average pace and pace for fastest and slowest going back 35 years and the last decade for planting our crops in the Spring.
When is the normal halfway mark on U.S. spring #wheat planting? Recent 5yr avg is May 12, but 20yr avg says May 2. Three different avgs are shown on the chart - planting is trending slower. Since 1981: Fastest to halfway: 2012 (April 20) Slowest to halfway: 2022 (May 23).
As you can see, it's still very early!
Planting for U.S. #soybeans typically reaches the halfway mark by May 22 and 70% complete by the end of May (using 10yr average). Since 1980: Fastest to halfway: 2000 & 2021 (May 12) Slowest to halfway: 1995 (June 8) Second slowest: 2019 (June 6) 2022 halfway: May 22
U.S. #corn was 2% planted by Sunday, normal pace so far but still very early. The 10-year average for reaching halfway planted is May 9. Since 1980: Fastest to halfway: 2010 (April 25) Slowest to halfway: 2019 (May 20) 2022 halfway: May 16
