US Consumer Confidence Dives to More Than 12-Year Low in September

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-09-29/us-consumer-confidence-dives-to-more-than-12-year-low-in-september

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                Re: Re: Re: Bonds            

                            By metmike - Sept. 29, 2026, 2:26 p.m.            

            Wow!

Interest rates soaring higher. This will kill the stock market and economy as the Fed tries to curb Trumpflation!

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

US hiring slows and unemployment ticks higher with a month remaining before Americans head to polls

https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemployment-economy-ai-hiring-44b99f9ccbff863888af99402ddf535e

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Disappointing 29,000 jobs added in September as unemployment ticks up

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/disappointing-29000-jobs-added-in-september-as-unemployment-ticks-up

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September jobs report shows slowdown in hiring, unemployment ticks up

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/jobs-labor/2026/10/02/september-2026-jobs-report-unemployment-rate/91991349007/

The day before the job report's release, 76% of traders were betting the Fed would hold the federal funds rate steady at its October meeting and 62% were predicting it would raise it by a quarter-point in December, according to CME FedWatch. After its release, 82% are betting on a pause this month, and 62% are still betting on a quarter-point hike in December.

Regarding rising interest rates and the stock market ;  There has been a statistical relationship that there is a 9-18 month lag with stocks following inversely to interest rates.  I heard that rates haven't been this high since 2007.  The one year lag manifested itself when the 2008 bear market took its toll.  But right now?  The stock market is resilient in the face of rising interest rates.  So maybe a bear market in 2027?  2 cents

Great points, joj!

AI Overview

When interest rates rise, stock prices often fall because higher borrowing costs squeeze corporate profits and safer bonds become more attractive to investors. [1, 2]

Why Valuations Drop

• Higher discount rates: Future corporate earnings are worth less today. [1, 2]
• Growth stock pressure: Tech and high-valuation companies suffer the most

Increased Borrowing Costs

• Squeezed margins: Companies pay more to service existing and new debt. [1]
• Delayed projects: Higher expenses stall corporate expansions and hiring

Yield Competition

• Bonds look safer: Government Treasuries offer high returns with low risk. [1, 2]
• Capital rotation: Investors shift money out of equities and into fixed income.

Slowed Economic Demand

• Higher consumer loans: Mortgages and auto loans become expensive. [1, 2]
• Reduced spending: Lower consumer demand cuts into company revenues.

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This is a huge reason for why I started these threads:

                VERY bad time to invest in the stock market #2!            

                                                      Started by metmike - Sept. 27, 2026, 9:18 a.m. 

           https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/122976/

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Previous thread:

                VERY bad time to invest in the stock market!!            

                            47 responses |              

                Started by metmike - June 18, 2026, 2:56 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/120945/

How Interest Rates Impact Stock Market Trends

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/

Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says

Published Thu, Oct 8 2026

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/08/inflation-tariffs-trump-fed-consumer-goods.html

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Dugh! This is what I've been insisting since the day that Donald Trump imposed his massive tariffs schemes in April 2025 based on the indisputable principles of global economics involving trading between countries.

Donald Trump blatantly lying about everything tariffs doesn't change the equation of 2+2=4 to magically turn it into 2+2=0

                Trumps illegal tariffs            

                            Started by metmike - Sept. 27, 2026, 9:27 a.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/122977/

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Supreme Court rules against Trump's illegal tariffs            

                54 responses |          

                Started by metmike - Feb. 20, 2026, 10:19 a.m.      

      https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/118035/

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       More delusional tariffs!            

                            54 responses |          

                Started by metmike - Sept. 14, 2025, 5:51 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/114673/

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        50% tariffs on EU starting June 1           

                            61 responses |              

                Started by metmike - May 23, 2025, 8:13 a

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/112084/

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  Trump tables’ “Tariffs Charged to USA” not really that            

                            17 responses |       

                Started by WxFollower - April 3, 2025, 2:54 p.m.     

       https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110890/

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                Trump backs down            

                            32 responses |        

                Started by metmike - April 9, 2025, 2:17 p.m.     

       https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111077/

The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, Moody’s estimates

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/13/economy/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-inflation 

   The national average price for regular gas is $4.34 a gallon, up from $3.08 a year ago. Diesel costs $6.28 a gallon, up from $3.65 a year ago.

Surging gas prices pushed CPI inflation to 3.7% in September. The Fed is watching.

Inflation heated up to 3.7% annually last month as energy prices soared, according to the latest Consumer Price Index data.

The latest reading came in hot, accelerating from 3.4% in August and outpacing economists' expected 3.6% jump. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.6% in September from 0.4% a month earlier.

Gas prices were a particularly large driver of the jump, rising 9.1% month over month. Average prices at the pump hit a record $4.33 last month, according to AAA data, nearly $0.50 above the previous monthly record set in 2023.

"Core" inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is watched more closely by Federal Reserve officials, was also hotter than expected, rising 2.6% annually, up from 2.4% in August.

Traders see close to 50-50 odds of a rate hike next month, up from less than 25% odds before the latest data was released.

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/surging-gas-prices-pushed-cpi-inflation-to-37-in-september-the-fed-is-watching-133518198.html

Excellent post, Larry!

What's interesting at the moment is that this news caused bonds to spike down(interest rates up) but the have reversed.

Potential bottom(top in interest rates)?  with this now in the market.

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bonds            

                            By metmike - Oct. 14, 2026, 1:55 p.m.            

Producer prices see largest rise in four years: BLS

https://thehill.com/business/6150397-producer-prices-spike-four-years-labor-data/

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Despite this OLD news, the bond market is looking ahead telling us that interest rate futures have put in, at the very least a short term top!

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Bonds            

                            By metmike - Oct. 15, 2026, 2:41 p.m.            

3 Words From Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Suggest the Worst Is Yet to Come for Wall Street

Warsh’s choice of words points to an aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/10/19/3-words-fed-chair-kevin-warsh-suggest-worst-is-yet-to-come-for-wall-street/