This graph below is updated daily.

1.  National gas prices in blue.

2. Indiana gas prices in red. 60c state gas tax taken off in May!

3. The price of gas in Evansville, IN. in green.

Gas Price Charts (USA average)

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville

Regarding SPR crude oil, storage is now down to the lowest since May, 1983, just shortly after we established the SPR(blue dot on the graph below):

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

A little history on that. During Biden, it was used to the tune of almost 300 billion barrels from late 2021 to mid 2023, mostly to fight high gas prices. Then it was very slowly being refilled, which continued in 2024,2025 (65 billion barrels) with lower crude prices then to buy it with,  until this war broke out. Since then, its down another 120 bb!

However, THIS BELOW is what's most important: It's suggests that we are now starting to damage the integrity of the SPR storage facility and the damage will increase the lower we go, according to some experts, like Texas A&M petroleum engineering department!

+++++++++++

America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve Is Shrinking: How Low Can It Really Go?

Former JPMorgan Chase Global Chief Economist (Ph.D. in Economics) & Global Keynote Public Speaker for Hire

https://thepeopleseconomist.substack.com/p/americas-strategic-petroleum-reserve

Repeated drawdowns and refills of the SPR put pressure on the SPR’s infrastructure integrity.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1. 10 years: In 2020, that spike lower is REAL Crude traded negative in the Spring of 2020! Top in Spring 2022. Downtrend 2023/2024/2025. Gap higher with Iran war. Spike up, then gap filled as the market anticipated and end to the war. Back higher as the war continues along with the global energy crisis.

2.  1 year: Iran war gap higher. Huge spike up........then down to fill the gap with the fake end of the war. Back up with the global energy/oil crisis continuing and no end in sight. Front month October has obliterated the previous life of contract high. Below are the continuous contract prices. 

3.  1 month: Strong uptrend with BULLISH NEWS! This is either a sideways pause(continuation pattern) or potential head and shoulders top with the top, shoulders and neckline drawn. 

The NEWS will determine what happens.

++++++++++

 Here was the day we tracked it on MarketForum live!!! This might be our best thread ever on  MarketForum history when it comes to suspense and profound history in the markets. 

Scroll down and follow the excitement!!!

                 US crude tumbles to 18-year low            

                            50 responses |            

                Started by metmike - April 17, 2020, 12:43 p.m.  

         https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/50726/

How Much Did a Gallon of Gas Cost the Year You Were Born?

A decade-by-decade look at how historic events, economic crises, and inflation shaped the price at the pump, from the 1950s to today.

https://www.mentalfloss.com/live-smarter/money/how-much-gallon-gas-cost-year-born

Does Indiana use more ethanol? The discount for higher ethanol content in gasoline is pretty high now. AAA has regular at 4.47 & E85 at 3.47.
Up until a week or 2 ago, I thought of the Houthis as some sort of ragged guerrillas.
Since then, learned that:
Yemen has 20% more people than Saudi Arabia
The Houthis are excellent fighters
The US is either about to attack them or, per Trump, in talks with them
The official government of Yemen is a monarchy imposed from outside with little popular support

Still don't know if the Houthis are some kind of Taliban type nuts.

patrick,

I think you could be right about why our gas prices have been lower than the cost of the front month futures. Almost all of our gas has 10% ethanol in it like most of the country.

There is a little with 15% and some sold with ethanol free.

Probably mixing in 10% of the (crappy)  cheaper ethanol takes down the price. It also lowers gas mileage and wrecks small engines.

I had to change the carburetor and fuel lines/gaskets in my chainsaw after ethanol damaged them. 

AI Overview

. 

We get by with a little electric chainsaw. The trees around here aren't too healthy - drought, lanternflies, ash borers, bittersweet, etc - and tend to drop huge pieces, which it can deal with.
In any event, Al Jazeera has put out an excellent reference piece on Yemen
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/a-brief-history-of-the-yemen-conflict

Thanks, patrick!

We're surrounded by mature trees here and I've cut down 2+ dozen, some huge in 27 years. A few were emergencies that fell across the driveway or blocking the road in front of our house.

Crude is -$5+ right now(down $8 from the high Friday). Close to the biggest down day of the year! October crude expires in the next few days.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1. 1 day-down $8 from the Friday High

2. 1 year-The biggest spikes up/down were mainly from NEWS on those days!

+++++++++++++

This was the pattern that verified from yesterday's chart analysis at the top of this thread:

                Crude/gas/diesel 9-19-26            

             Started by metmike - Sept. 19, 2026, 4:46 p.m.  

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/122871/

3. 1 month: Accelerating uptrend to new highs now in potential sideways correction mode in a continuation pattern. Or it could be a head and shoulders top, with lines drawn at the top, shoulders and neckline.  

Sunday graph below:

+++++++++++++++

 11am Monday, same graph with broken neckline:

Trump says high diesel costs stem from ‘ridiculous’ Ukraine war

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/21/trump-says-high-diesel-costs-stem-ridiculous-ukraine-war/

Trump backs diesel export ban as oil industry pushes back

https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/trump-backs-diesel-export-ban-120327623.html

Is the last weekly bar telling us something?

The wedge lower line held the retrace, however the midrange close may suggest the market isn't in a hurry. 

Great charts gedigan!

Crude prices are very tied to the NEWS right now. NEWS about the Iran war. NEWS about the Strait of Hormuz. NEWS about other supply disruptions(Russia, Saudi Arabia)  that are unusually powerful because of the current global energy crisis from supply side caused, bullish short term fundamentals that refuse to be resolved. 

This is especially impacting diesel and heating oil prices. 

Note how low we are on the graph below. However, EVERY dip below 100,000 occurred at the END of Winter/in early Spring after Winter drained supply. The amount of heat oil stocks in August/September of 2026 have been the LOWEST in history compared to all previous August/September's!

However, the extreme supply swings from Fall highs to end of Winter lows that existed for decades have been much less pronounced in recent year. Otherwise, heating stocks at the current 107,000 barrels X 1,000 BEFORE the upcoming Winter would be potentially ominous. 

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

Is Heating Oil the Same as Diesel?

https://dollarwiseoil.com/heating-oil-vs-diesel/

Gasoline ending stocks below follow a seasonal that is the opposite of heating oil. They bottom at the end of the driving season around this time frame and build during the Winter, when driving demand drops, while heating oil demand surges to heat homes. 

We are hitting a seasonal low in gasoline stocks that is actually in good shape compared to the total gasoline in storage during previous September's!

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

Higher open?

5:30 pm: Up around $1

+++++++++

11am Monday: Crude is +$3.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1 week below. Open Sunday Night shown with red line. NEWS is what matters the most in the liquid energies.

G7 nations will release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel fuel after prices soar

https://apnews.com/article/trump-europe-diesel-fuel-prices-774a360d1646d9ce8aba764fdd9959d2

++++++++++

G7 to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel, will it curb prices?

Global energy prices have soared due to the US and Israel’s war on Iran and Russia’s war on Ukraine.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/3/g7-to-release-100-million-barrels-of-oil-and-diesel-will-it-curb-prices

Trump Uses Bonkers Excuse for Issue Voters Hate Most

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-uses-bonkers-excuse-for-high-gas-prices/

++++++++++++++

Energy    

Oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz

    https://hormuz.now/oil

AIS-visible tanker tonnage through the Strait of Hormuz is 0.8% of normal (IMF PortWatch, 7 days to 27 Sep), and 18 tankers crossed our counting line in the last 7 days. Estimates that include ships running dark are far higher: 13.1 million barrels a day in the latest week, just under 80% of the 17.1 mb/d pre-war level (CNN (Kpler data), 29 Sep). Before the crisis, about 20.9 million barrels of oil a day went through the strait, roughly a fifth of world consumption.

9 attacks on tankers in October so far.  The one that may have pushed oil up $3 was near Qatar.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/8/tanker-hit-by-multiple-projectiles-off-north-coast-of-qatar-ukmto-says
 

A number of casualties have been reported after a tanker sailing off the north coast of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency has announced.

The vessel was hit by several projectiles 94 kilometres (58 miles) north of Madinat ash Shamal, UKMTO said on Wednesday. The incident comes as the British maritime agency reported a recent rise in attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

UKMTO did not say how many people were killed or injured in this latest attack, adding that authorities were investigating. It did not specify the origin of the ship.

An attack on a vessel in the middle of the Gulf is unusual. The Maritime Executive, a publication specialising in commercial shipping, said it was the first reported attack on a tanker in the western half of the Gulf in weeks.

An Indian tanker was hit badly near Oman a day earlier -
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/oman-evacuates-injured-crew-from-attacked-tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz

And of course Isaias strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, but that seems quaint.

Thanks, patrick!

                Re: Re: Re: 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast                                       By metmike - Oct. 8, 2026, 8:59 a.m.  

++++++++++++++==

Like you showed, it's still all about NEWS!

1. 1 year Symmetrical wedge with higher lows and lower highs. 

2. 1 month: Upside breakout from a descending triangle/wedge???

3. 1 week: Breaking out to the upside?  The latest NEWS matters more than chart formations or lines drawn to connect data points. 

Back to yesterdays news the EIA petroleum report showed an 8 million barrel draw. Lots of product exports. If you've heard the noise about restricting diesel export, it's not happening.

Thanks much, patrick!

Crude in the SPR continues to be drawn down. Now to levels close to when it was first started and according to some/many, approaching or already breaching the lowest it can go without the storage facility being structurally damaged. 

Because there is a minimum amount of SPR oil that much be maintained, the reality is that our usable SPR oil is getting very close to 0!  In fact, we may be adding to structural damage every week that we drop lower!

                Re: Re: Crude/gas/diesel 9-19-26            

                           By metmike - Sept. 19, 2026, 4:50 p.m.            

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W

                Re: Re: How Donald Trump is helping Putin to finance his war            

                            By patrick - Oct. 10, 2026, 4:08 p.m.            

Just a reminder that this is a pure gift to Russia, as the US can make all the diesel we need.

                Re: Re: Re: How Donald Trump is helping Putin to finance his war            

                            By metmike - Oct. 10, 2026, 6:32 p.m.            

            That's a great point, patrick!

The liquid energies are traded on a global market and globally, Donald Trump's energy crisis has resulted in huge shortages in numerous regions/countries with prices spiking to record highs, taking US prices along with them. 

AI Overview

Yes, the United States produces more than enough ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) to cover its own domestic consumption, though it still imports and exports smaller amounts based on regional logistics and market pricing. [1]Production vs. Consumption Facts

• Domestic Production: U.S. petroleum refineries and biomass-based producers generate about 1.76 billion barrels (roughly 73.80 billion gallons) of ULSD per year. [1]
• Domestic Consumption: Total U.S. ULSD consumption sits at about 1.42 billion barrels (roughly 59.56 billion gallons) per year. [1]
• Imports and Exports: Even though overall national production outpaces total consumption, the U.S. still imports a small fraction (around 0.06 billion barrels, heavily sourced from Canada) to balance regional distribution, and exports diesel to global markets. [1]
• Refining Constraints: Although the U.S. is the world’s top diesel producer, refiners cannot simply ramp up diesel output at will. Distillate fuel makes up only about 30% of a typical barrel of crude oil, and existing refineries operate near maximum capacity, which can still lead to tight regional inventories or price spikes

++++++++++

For this time of year, heating oil/diesel storage is the lowest ever with the heating season coming up.

With the main driving season being over and heating season ahead, refiners shift to making more heating oil and less gasoline. Considering the favorable spread right now, there is financial incentive for them to go especially heavy on the heating oil/diesel production!

                Crude/gas/diesel 9-19-26            

                           Started by metmike - Sept. 19, 2026, 4:46 p.m.  

          https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/122871/

                Re: Re:  Crude/gas/diesel 9-19-26            

                            By metmike - Sept. 26, 2026, 9:43 p.m.            

Crude prices are very tied to the NEWS right now. NEWS about the Iran war. NEWS about the Strait of Hormuz. NEWS about other supply disruptions(Russia, Saudi Arabia)  that are unusually powerful because of the current global energy crisis from supply side caused, bullish short term fundamentals that refuse to be resolved. 

This is especially impacting diesel and heating oil prices. 

Note how low we are on the graph below. However, EVERY dip below 100,000 occurred at the END of Winter/in early Spring after Winter drained supply. The amount of heat oil stocks in August/September of 2026 have been the LOWEST in history compared to all previous August/September's!

However, the extreme supply swings from Fall highs to end of Winter lows that existed for decades have been much less pronounced in recent year. Otherwise, heating stocks at the current 107,000 barrels X 1,000 BEFORE the upcoming Winter would be potentially ominous. 

Graph below is updated with last weeks data:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

Is Heating Oil the Same as Diesel?

https://dollarwiseoil.com/heating-oil-vs-diesel/        

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++                              

AI Overview

Yes, refiners can adjust their output mix to make more heating oil and less gasoline, but only within strict physical and technical limits. [1, 2]How the Shift Works

• Seasonal Adjustments: As summer ends and autumn or winter begins, refiners routinely tweak their operations to shift yields from gasoline toward middle distillates (which include home heating oil and diesel). [1, 2]
• Economic Incentives (Crack Spreads): Refiners look at profit margins—called the "crack spread"—between crude oil and finished products. If heating oil or diesel becomes more valuable or profitable relative to gasoline, they tune distillation and cracking units to pull a slightly higher share of distillates out of the barrel. [1, 2, 3, 4]

Why They Cannot Just "Swap" Them

• Fixed Barrel Yields: A typical 42-gallon barrel of crude oil naturally yields a fixed baseline of products—usually about 19 to 20 gallons of gasoline and 11 to 13 gallons of distillates (diesel and heating oil), with the rest going to jet fuel, asphalt, and other substances. [1]
• Rigid Infrastructure: Refineries are complex networks of towers, hydrocrackers, and cokers built for specific crude types. A plant cannot simply choose to double its heating oil output or stop making gasoline just because one fuel's price spikes. [1]
• Boiling Range Limits: Gasoline and heating oil have very different molecular weights and boiling points. You cannot broadly turn a gasoline stream into heating oil on a whim without hitting hard engineering and product specification caps

I've been wondering why EIA lumps heating oil & diesel together. Are they separated at a final stage? Do they have hydrocarbons in common? Was it just not that big a deal, because they can adjust the split for heating season?
Lots of useful answers in what you've put, but  it feels like they're afraid to go into the basic OChem.

I'm learning too, patrick!

From your/others posts and mine. When I don't know it, I look it up and share what was just learned. 

As you've seen, I've developed a fondness for using AI explanations (before it kills us all  ) because the answers are usually objective/non political and more complete than what I was going to state. 

Sometimes its because I didn't know enough about the topic and am purely sharing what I just learned. 

Sometimes I won't like the answer and not use it for a number of reasons. One of them is that it's just regurgitating what's out there and the consensus is sometimes wrong about things like climate change and CO2 for instance.

Sometimes but rarely, I'm trying to make a point and it's not helpful because it disagrees with me and I might be wrong. That is rare and BECAUSE I'm human but most of the time, if it disagrees with me I look at it as an opportunity to learn something new and pass that on. 

It's always MUCH better to be wrong and learn something new than to be wrong and not know it or not admit it because of human cognitive bias!

Trump announces Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" but Zelenskyy says Russian attacks still happening

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-trump-new-ukrainian-president/

"Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter," Mr. Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

+++++++++++

Donald Trump completely made that up!!!!!

Read here for the explanation for Donald Trump's advancing delusions of grandeur!

                Re: Re: Re: Renaming Kennedy Center to add Trump            

                By metmike - Oct. 11, 2026, 2:05 p.m.         

+++++++++++

Front month, November opened close to unchanged and is up 75c right now. The market knows that Donald Trump is lying........again. 

And YOU have made how many thousands with your knowledge?

Thanks, tjc!

Since YOU brought it up, I'll be happy to expand on that. 

Making money is not my top priority in life and should not be for others, although I did double the size of my account balance on the grain trade I posted live here this past Summer. 

Ethical behavior, honesty, telling the truth, respecting others, contributing in a positive way to my community(as chess coach at 5 schools and on the board for Scholastic Chess of Indiana and running local chess tournaments, T-Ball coach for my grandson's team-volunteer in other organizations). 

Having good character traits.  Acting honorably. Having empathy for people that are suffering. 

Educating people. Helping less fortunate and SHARING positive things.

Also, speaking out against evil and using MarketForum as a wonderful platform to do it! 

Telling people the truth based on authentic facts. What they NEED to hear/read not what they want to hear/read to manipulate them like charlatans USING THEM do.

When I pass away, the amount of money that I made will leave behind a bunch of material items.

The amount of time that I spent focusing on those priorities above will leave behind much more.

I just got done with an email conversation with one of my chess pupils, Pete Anderson in the late 1990's/early 2000's. Pretty good player that was on board 1 of our A team that competed in the Scholastic Chess of Indiana State Championships in Terre Haute at Honey Creek Middle School. 

He was also a great friend with my oldest son, Quinn. 

He signed up his son, Pete Jr.  who now loves chess because his dad passed it on to him.  

This has happened many times and what it's all about. Kids that learn how to play chess..........know how to play forever. Even if they aren't that good, they still know how to play. When they become parents, it's often 1 of the wonderful things that they teach and share with their children. 

It doesn't get any better than that!

++++++++++

3 decades of coaching scholastic chess to 6,500 students matters to me more than anything at MarketForum even though I make this place a top priority while getting $0 for it and $0 for coaching chess.....because I don't do things for the money.

You see, tjc there are many things in life with much more value than money.  I really appreciate your many hundreds of positive trading contributions here(you also offered to help fund our chess program earlier this year- so I know that you're a good person)  and this just provided for a wonderful opportunity to respond positively to what you intended to be a rude remark.

                Chess for beginners 12-3-25 and more            

                           Started by metmike - Dec. 3, 2025, 1 p.m.    

        https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/116355/

+++++++++++++

Right after that last post above, crude started selling off hard and is now -$1 and on the lows. I have no idea why..........maybe some news?

I have never traded crude in my life because it's not a weather market but report on it here because we have a ton of readers that follow many markets that I don't trade and some, like you DO trade crude and because it's fun to analyze. 

+++++++++++++

November crude now -$2!

++++++++++

Noon: November crude has bounced to +$2/barrel.  Beats me on what's moving the market and one thing for sure, it's impossible to predict what Donald Trump will say or do next, so even if this was also a weather market, I wouldn't  touch it with a pole as long as Pinocchio's nose. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1. 1 week: Breaking out to the upside

2. 1 month: Breaking out to the upside

Ukraine resumes attacks on Russian oil refineries as relations with Trump sour

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/ukraine-resumes-attacks-on-russian-oil-refineries-as-relations-with-trump-sour

++++++++++

Ukraine resuming attacks on Russian oil refineries

https://thehill.com/policy/international/6149942-ukraine-attacks-russia-energy-infrastructure-trump-ceasefire/

+++++++++++

Meanwhile, the person responsible for the high energy prices is busy on a self promoting binge, that included  bragging about how well he did on the testing that his doctors did on him to monitor his progressive dementia.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/123293/#123317

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1. 1 month

This graph below is updated daily.

1.  National gas prices in blue.

2. Indiana gas prices in red. 60c state gas tax taken off in May!

3. The price of gas in Evansville, IN. in green.

Gas Price Charts (USA average)

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

https://www.gasbuddy.com/gasprices/indiana/evansville

++++++++++++++++++==

Heating oil(and diesel) are at the highest price in history!

1. 10 years below. Upside break out above 2020, Ukraine war highs. Caused by Donald Trump's unjustified, unprovoked war in Iran because his diseased brain(convinced by Netanyahu of Israel) thought it would be an easy victory for the world's most powerful military that would make him an historical legend in the Middle East.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/heating-oil

Diesel and heating oil consumption - Country rankings

Measure: thousand barrels per day; Source: The U.S. Energy Information Administration

 Download data from our database

Diesel fuel explained

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/use-of-diesel.php

In 2025, distillate (or diesel) fuel consumption (excluding biodiesel and renewable diesel) by the U.S. transportation sector was about 2.94 million barrels per day, or about 123 million gallons per day. This annual consumption accounted for about 75% of total U.S. distillate consumption and about 14% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. On an energy content basis, diesel fuel accounted for about 22% of total energy consumption in the U.S. transportation sector

+++++++++++

Diesel fuel explained Where our diesel comes from

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/where-our-diesel-comes-from.php

++++++++++++++++

Diesel As Fuel Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)

https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/diesel-as-fuel-market

+++++++++++++++++

https://www.statista.com/statistics/244442/us-petroleum-energy-consumption-by-sector/?srsltid=AU7gw4UMd7t7IWEdFtkcsveo4fP9GgWRqaK0mSjWwiOOz6mrhnVTpDOr

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/diesel-fuel-market-report

Let's not forget what caused this global energy crisis!

  How Netanyahu used Donald Trump for his war            

                            31 responses |            

                Started by metmike - April 10, 2026, 4:10 p.m.    

       https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119441/

+++++++++++++++++

                Iran nuclear weapons false narrative(s)            

                            17 responses |              

                                            Started by metmike - April 25, 2026, 9:07 a.m.

           https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/119788/ 

+++++++++++++++++

Heating oil(and diesel) are at the highest price in history!

1. 10 years below. Upside break out above 2020, Ukraine war highs. Caused by Donald Trump's unjustified, unprovoked war in Iran because his diseased brain(convinced by Netanyahu of Israel) thought it would be an easy victory for the world's most powerful military that would make him an historical legend in the Middle East.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/heating-oil

+++++++++++++++++

If you don't believe the authentic truths above, read about why that is below:

                People that believe only their party            

                            Started by metmike - Oct. 17, 2026, 8:43 p.m.           

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/123366/

ANy gapopening can be important here ---

Thanks, fayq!

You're probably right but NEWS continues to be in the drivers seat. 

In some markets, the price charts can give us some subtle but solid clues about what the biggest traders with the best news are doing. 

The gap you mentioned, could be either an upside break away gap, signaling more panic type buying and the bears giving up OR it could be a gap and crap buying exhaustion gap if filled quickly if we run out of panic buyers at these higher prices.

Orrrrrrrrrrrr, we could have some sort of breaking news that trumps everything. News that has nothing to do with current prices or the buying/selling associated with the price or the charts. 

Expiring front month, November is +$5+ right now. What gives with the chart below?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1. 1 week: This is a "fake" gap lower. being just this source rolling over from graphing the November to the December contract as November approaches expiration. November today is over $109! These are life of contracts highs for every month trading right now (going out years) but not as high as the FRONT MONTH spike up earlier this year. 

Donald Trump continues to make things worse and worse.

Happy Wednesday!
The EIA report shows Isaias week & the SPR tapping out.

Thanks, patrick!

I noted that heating oil stocks went UP as they push production (over gasoline) ahead of this Winter, that is typically mild in the Northeast during El Nino's but each year is different.

Retail, heating oil is $5.90, diesel $6.32
Exports are falling.
At least something makes sense.

With oil over $100 and tankers burning, Al Jazeera has a long piece on the global supply situation. South Asia is still the closest to crisis.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/23/are-global-oil-reserves-sufficient-to-withstand-renewed-us-iran-war

Bottom line:

How much oil is left?

Far less than before the war began in February, and not all of it can be used.

Aaron Kildow, a senior crude oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Al Jazeera that global strategic stocks excluding China and Iran have fallen by nearly 327 million barrels since the end of December 2025 with the US, Europe and Japan accounting for about 95 percent of the draw.

He estimated that leaves only about 400 million barrels of usable reserves worldwide, excluding China’s stockpile, which is unlikely to be exported, and Gulf stocks, which could be cut off by a total closure of Hormuz.

Nearly half of these available stocks are in Japan.

Europe has about 76 million barrels uncommitted, but members such as Germany are holding some back for a local emergency, Kildow said.

Thanks, patrick!

 All front month crude months making life of contract highs. After the new December contract took over, trading $5 below the expired November, we have shot back up. The graph below shows when the rollover took place earlier this week. Since then, prices for December crude are up another $5.

  https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil 

Trump on high gas prices: 'We're making a freaking fortune'

https://www.businessinsider.com/high-gas-prices-donald-trump-oil-companies-midterm-election-2026-10

++++++++++++

In other words: "Hey everybody, the rich and powerful people in the gas and oil business (and me) are getting rich with record profits by taking advantage of you, the American consumers and I'm bragging about how great that is with less than 2 weeks to go until the election."

Every clear thinking politician, with less than 2 weeks to go before a key election would be doing and saying the diametrically opposed polar opposite of what Donald Trump is doing/saying.

The reason for Donald Trump's damaging rhetoric/actions is Donald Trumps 2 brain diseases.

                Re: Compilation of Donald Trump's offenses during 2nd term            

                            By metmike - Oct. 25, 2026, 8:44 p.m.         

+++++++++++++++

He only cares about the legacy of Donald Trump and sees these rallies as opportunities for Donald Trump to brag about Donald Trump..........who is the most unpopular president in history. Telling people to pretend that he's on the ballot because he can't grasp his unpopularity. Part of his delusions of grandeur. But he can go to stadium's loaded with MAGA for life cult members. Cheering adulators  entertained with complete delusional nonsense and Galaxy sized lies to bolster his Galaxy sized ego. 

His diseases have completely taken away his impulse control and rational thinking and revealed the REAL Donald Trump with bankrupt character and ethics and a person  that does nothing but manufacture huge, absurd lies with unhinged clown shows at these rallies.

The most powerful man in the world causing our current, global energy crisis (and extremely high fuel prices hurting ALL of us, especially those using diesel for their business-farmers/truckers) from his completely unjustified war in Iran. 

We are ALL paying a hefty price for this and his "favorite word" tariffs that have damaged the free trade between countries that benefit BOTH countries because of the indisputable principles of global economics when rich countries trade with poor countries. This has caused additional, Donald Trump inflicted inflation. 

The most powerful man in the world is not qualified to make decisions about anything. 

Even if every MAGA voter comes out to vote in this election and the Rs hold the Senate, they will STILL vote to impeach and remove Donald Trump in 2027 so that the R party can begin to heal. Not doing that means even worse losses for the Rs in 2028, 

As Trump brags about U.S. oil and gas company profits, his stocks gained millions during Iran war

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-oil-gas-stocks-gain-millions-iran-war-democratic-report-finds/

++++++++++++

Trump Says “We’re Making A Freaking Fortune” From The Iran War’s Oil Spike. Here’s What The Economic Data Actually Show

https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/26/trump-says-were-making-a-freaking-fortune-from-the-iran-wars-oil-spike-heres-what-the-economic-data-actually-show/

++++++++++++

Trump ignores his own team’s advice, celebrates higher oil prices

The more consumers suffer, the more money oil companies make. The president is celebrating this as part of his closing message ahead of the midterms.

https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-oil-prices-gas-energy-midterm-elections

Crude is off to the races again. Front month, December at new contract highs.

4pm: This is the 1 year CONTINUOUS chart below. The FRONT months spiked higher than this in the Spring. However, December and every contract month out is at life of contract highs for that contract. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

1 year continuous chart: After the Iran war gap higher, we spiked to near $120. Then came back down to fill the gap when the market thought the war was over in July.  

After realizing that the war was NOT over and the global energy crisis would continue, we've been on a steep up slope higher. 

Again, this is the FRONT month price continuous chart graphed. The price of the same contract month graphed from beginning to end shows us at the highs for the move right now.

Nov 5 might make a difference??

Profound question, tjc. On several levels.

It appears that Donald Trump may be holding off on more decimating of Iran until right after the election. 

Also, I've been assuming that the Ds in the House will quickly open an impeachment investigation into Donald Trump but have read some things that make me consider they absolutely want to keep him around as long as possible to help them with even bigger wins in 2028.

To be honest, with Donald Trump killing the Rs, especially at the polls and helping the Ds, it's ironic that its the Rs that would want him out ASAP to start healing the party before the 2028 elections.

Are the highs in??? Topping formation below on the chart as well as seasons favoring a top in this time frame. 

Or is this another bull flag(a continuation pattern). Potential tops with this chart formation often end up being tops or bull flags(rectangle with sideways trading in this case).

We are potentially breaking below the trendline and support after failing several times to get above the previous high/resistance. However, this is deceiving. That previous high was on the November contract!!!!

This is a continuous front month chart. When we rolled over to the December, contract on October 19th,  the price immediately plunged $5  then shortly after that, tested the uptrend line below. Not because of weakness but because of the rollover to the next (lower priced) month.

So the reality is that if we added that $5 back, we would be ABOVE the previous contract highs!

The NEWS will continue to determine where we go next.

Even after the $5 haircut on the front month when we rolled from the November to the December we are breaking out ABOVE THE NOVEMBER HIGHS and well above previous contract highs for December.

Today, crude is up almost $3. 

1. 1 month below:  Very STEEP  uptrend intact even after the $5 rollover drop caused the price to establish some data points below that gave us the testing points on an uptrending continuous chart. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

++++++++++++

Donald Trump, the president and king of revenge apparently plans to bomb the crap out of Iran after the election to teach them a lesson over his unprovoked, unjustified attacks and war that he thought would be just like June 2025. 

Just bomb Iran again, then have their leaders surrender and let the world adulate the historical legend, Donald Trump for finally taking out Iran. 

Whoops. Delusional thinking is not a  good military strategy.

Meanwhile, crude is down steeply vs Fri with it at $97.74, down a whopping $6.38! There hasn’t been a daily drop nearly of this magnitude since mid-Sept!

https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data

Mike et al, can anyone confirm that crude really has dropped this much?

Yes Larry it sure did.

Clearly this was related to some sort of news that hit at 7:37 am CST when crude dropped $2 in less than 2 minutes)

Thanks, Mike. Crude is now down even more! It’s down 7.52 at 96.60! This is the biggest drop at least since mid Sept and possibly as far back as June!

Oil prices have fallen by 5.9% due to diplomatic talks between Iranian and Qatari officials. The hopes of a deal to end the US-Israeli war against Iran have increased. Brent Crude futures have fallen by 5.9% to $106.76 per barrel after increasing in the earlier session. However, there was also some sentiment around the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in the next two days.

https://m.economictimes.com/world/money/why-are-oil-prices-down-today-brent-crude-futures-drop-by-5-9-heres-the-latest-price/amp_articleshow/135466139.cms

Thanks very much, Larry!

I'm tied up outside repairing the wiring of our underground sprinkler system and will have more comments tonight.