7-9-26 Brief/Intense Heat Wave Northern Plains next week
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Started by metmike - July 9, 2026, 4:03 p.m.

           This was the heat wave last week much farther east:

     6-25-26 MAJOR heat(humidity) wave coming next week            

                       Started by metmike - June 25, 2026, 3:49 p.m.           

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/121123/

             +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=                           

Get all the comprehensive weather here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/



This is what spiked the C and S market on Sunday Night. It also helped natural gas a bit early in the week.

                Re: Re: : Grains--post breakout of July 6            

                            By metmike - July 8, 2026, 4:40 p.m.            

            

This is the peak in the dome next Tuesday, July 14th from the just out 12z European Ensemble model prediction.

Extremely impressive 600 dm center at 500 mb! However, the market has known this for 3 days now and  that dome only lasts for several days next week before the center shifts southwest.



This is what the same 500 mb forecast looks like on July 23rd, 9 days later. This too has been the exact same forecast since Sunday for the end of the 2 week period, so for now it's dialed into market expectations. 


                                    


            

                                                                                                                                

            

                

Comments
By metmike - July 9, 2026, 4:09 p.m.
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These are the 3 hottest days in next weeks heat wave, July 12-14, 2026. Actually, Saturday, July 11, 2026 will be on the hot side too(approaching 100). 

The 12th and 13th 

A couple of 100+ day in the Dakota's.

If soils were much drier in that area, the temperatures would be able to get much higher.

By metmike - July 9, 2026, 7:19 p.m.
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Excessive heat warnings/watches and advisories already up for many of these areas below. 

Current Hazards at the link below.

For your NWS and county, go to the link below.

 Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county. 

  

https://www.weather.gov/                                                                                                                 

                   


6pm, 7-9-26 below frozen image below. 

                                    


By WxFollower - July 10, 2026, 9:46 a.m.
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The 0Z Euro July 10th operational run has record breaking high 500 mb heights centered on the N Plains July 14th! Other models, including ensemble means, are similar and thus are supportive of this with July 14th and 13th both having extremely high heights:

By metmike - July 10, 2026, 9:54 a.m.
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Thanks very much, Larry.  Extremely impressive!

This was the just updated 6z run of the European ensemble model for the same feature at its peak 24 hour forecast magnitude next Mon/Tue:

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This was the prior 0z run at the PEAK of the dome from the EE:

By metmike - July 10, 2026, 1:07 p.m.
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We should note that the European model on the previous page is by far the most bullish of the models in forecasting the 600+ decameter height high for a pressure of 500 mb (This is equal to 6,000 meters above the surface) which is around halfway up in the atmosphere. In this case, that's almost 20,000 feet up!


This just out Canadian model includes the individual ensembles for next Monday evening(84 hours). Most of them peak out right at 600 dm. The average at the top is a smidgen less than 600 dm because a couple of ensembles below 600 dm, dragged down the mean to 599.9 or so. The blue dots at the top are the locations for the center of the DOME. 

084h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 14, 2026 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

By metmike - July 10, 2026, 1:20 p.m.
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More on the 500mb level and charts for readers that want to learn some meteorology from a wonderful teacher:


FORECASTING USING THE 500 MILLIBAR CHART


                                                METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/25/

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Heights_Thicknesses/thickness_temperature.htm#GEOPOTENTIAL

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HABY'S WEATHER FORECASTING HINTS  

theweatherprediction.com

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/

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AI Overview

A 500 mb height dome—commonly called a heat dome—is a sprawling area of high pressure in the middle atmosphere. When you see an extreme value of 600 decameters (dm) (or 6,000 meters) on a 500 mb map, it illustrates an intensely deep ridge of extremely hot, dense air. [1, 2, 3, 4]How a 600 dm Heat Dome Works
  • The Concept: The 500 mb level (millibars) is roughly the halfway point of the atmosphere by weight, usually sitting around 18,000 feet (or 5,500 meters). [1, 2, 3]
  • The Mechanism: Because warm air is less dense and expands, a column of hot air reaches much higher into the sky than a column of cold air. [1, 2, 3]
  • The "Dome": On a meteorological chart, you will see a bullseye of solid contour lines closing in on themselves. When the central contour hits the 600 dm mark, it indicates a massive, stagnant dome of sinking air that traps heat and suppresses storm formation, leading to record-breaking surface temperatures. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Visualizing the 500 mb ChartIf you are looking at a 500 mb map, here is what the illustration essentially shows:
  • Height Contours: Solid contour lines drawn every 60 meters (or 6 decameters). A standard summer ridge usually sits between 550 and 580 dm. A 600 dm reading is exceptionally rare and signifies a historically strong heat dome. [1, 2, 3, 4]
  • The Shape: Instead of the normal west-to-east wave pattern (troughs and ridges), the 500 mb height lines form a rigid "Omega" (Ω) or upside-down "U" shape, locking the heat in place. [1, 2]
  • Sinking Air: High values illustrate massive areas of subsidence (sinking air), which squashes clouds and allows uninterrupted solar radiation to bake the surface. [1]