If you were locked in a closet and only allowed to look at weather maps, you might think this price reaction was from the worsening drought in the southern US where most of our cotton crop is growing. 

Nope!

That is likely adding to the gains but these are almost all from the price of crude spiking higher. Anybody following cotton for any time, knows that the price of crude strongly impacts the price of cotton. More on that on the next page.

1. 1 year: The massive spike higher and upside breakout corresponding exactly to the start of the unjustified, unprovoked war in Iran, marked with the small red line.

2. 10 years: Note the extreme spike lower in 2020 because of COVID that caused CRUDE to plunge. Also the spike higher in 2022 from the spike higher in CRUDE because of the war with Ukraine. Note the small red line on the right/bottom that marked the start of this war. I drew a line of resistance on the chart that marked the 2 shoulders(resistance) of a head and shoulders top on the long term chart.

As long as the war in Iran continues, with it's profound chaos and price volatility in crude, trying to trade the drought in cotton country is not worth the massively elevated risk from Donald Trump's mouth which is attached to his diseased brain. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cotton