KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 21, 2023
7:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at
Business@Breakfast: 2023 Economic Forecast update event.
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +0.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. August Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -9)
Shipments Idx (previous -6)
10:00 AM ET. July Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 4.16M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -3.3%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.1)
Median Price (USD) (previous 410200)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -0.9%)
1:00 PM ET. July Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)
Wednesday, August 23, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 193)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 149.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 408.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. August US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.0)
10:00 AM ET. July New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 697K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -2.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 7.4)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.662M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.96M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 216.158M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.262M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.743M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.296M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.663M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.936M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extend the decline off August's high, the August 10th low crossing at 33,705.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,210.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,629.13. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 35,034.05. First support is today's low crossing at 34,263.19. Second support is July's low crossing at 33,705.68 is the next downside target.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,368.74 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,368.74. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. First support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00. Second support is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 14,117.27.
The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4518.36 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4518.36. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average of the March-July rally crossing at 4254.86.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 119-04.
September T-bonds closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122-08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-28. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 118-14. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 118-21.
September T-notes closed up 105-pts. at 109.195.
September T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.270 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.253. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.270. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 109.035. Second support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $81.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off August high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $84.20. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline on the weekly chart crossing at $88.47. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at $78.33. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68.
October heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extended Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9924 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.9924. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Friday as it this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2.7209. Second resistance is the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221. First support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.5080. Second support is the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.739 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews the rally off the August 2nd low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.096. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.301. First support is the August 2nd low crossing at 2.457. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.249.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.600 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 103.575. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 101.600. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at 100.320.
The September Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10085 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09919. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1.10850. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $1.07920. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2786 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2782. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2619. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14932 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14932. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is today's low crossing at 1.13655. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.89 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.29. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.89. First support is today's low crossing at 73.68. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070300 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.069442. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.070300. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extended the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1979.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1941.70. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1966.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1914.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30.
September silver closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.758 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.578. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.758. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 22.450. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 21.452.
September copper closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8204 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8204. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up $0.07 1/4-cents at $4.93.
December corn closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off July's high, the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $5.08. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.27. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at $4.50.
December wheat closed up $0.23 3/4-cents at $6.39.
December wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.80. Second resistance is the August 2nd high crossing at $7.09 1/2. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.19 1/4-cents at $7.60 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 8th high crossing at $7.89 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.36 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. First resistance is the August 8th high crossing at $7.89 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.18 3/4. First support is May's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.14 1/4-cents crossing at $8.17 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the May 31st low crossing at $7.78 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.23 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.57 1/2. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $7.98 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.23 1/4-cents at $13.53 1/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.43 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off July's high, the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $13.55 1/2. Second resistance is the July 31st gap crossing at $13.79. First support is the June 28th low crossing at $12.56 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-July rally crossing at $12.46 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $8.30 at $389.00.
December soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the June 29th low crossing at $374.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $396.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $395.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $396.70. First support is the June 29th low crossing at $374.60. Second support is May's low crossing at $361.80.
December soybean oil closed up 31 pts. at 64.09.
December soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 65.58 is the next upside target. Closes below August's low crossing at 57.86 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 64.42. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 65.58. First support is August's low crossing at 57.86. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 54.67.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.75 at $80.90.
October hogs closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI were oversold but are turning neutral to bullish with signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 6th low crossing at $74.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $87.50. First support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $74.03.
October cattle closed up $0.60 at $178.93.
October cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.99 opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $178.99. Second support is July's low crossing at $176.20.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.53 at $250.85.
October Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the July-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $248.32. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $15.56. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.92. First support is today's low crossing at $14.72. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.49.
December cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 34.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 32.63 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, the July 7th low crossing at 23.11 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, July's high crossing at 25.30 is the next upside target.
December cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the August 3rd low crossing at 83.25 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 91.29 is the next upside target.
Thanks very much, tallpine!
Dry weather the next 10 days for the Cornbelt, intense heat next week, then morphing to less hot and rain chances increasing again by the end of the month.
Last European model for September 2nd
All the weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Hurricane Hillary:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/98364/
Atlantic basin tropics
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97993/
Natural gas-last 12z European model was an incredible +8 CDDs
Low skill forecast for the 1st half of September. I agree with this based on all the model trends the last 2 days.
Rain chances return to the Midwest.
Heat returns to the South.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
