You may have noted the headline news yesterday about this. 100+ MSM articles online and topped the nightly news.
Here's a couple articles:
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Seawater around southern US state reaches 38.4C in what could be hottest ocean temperature ever recorded.
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What shocked me is that with thousands of supposedly professional journalists reporting on this, with 100+ stories, most of them seem to NOT have done any checking of the facts.........Never mind, journalists today don't fact check things they want to believe or what they want their readers/viewers to believe.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
These are the current water temperature anomalies in the Atlantic
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sst/rsst_atl_anom_loop.php
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For sure some extremely warm anomalies in several locations of the Pacific and Atlantic but temps off the Florida coast, though warm are not part of these extremes.
Something doesn't jive with a temperature over 100 Deg. F off the Florida Coast. These maps above are based on the well accepted data measurements.
Where did this crazy 101 temp reading come from?
Turns out it came from a shallow bay with murky water, with very light wind from west (land) and not east (sea) in the late afternoon at a time of year with a high sun angle with a short duration spike that had risen 10 degrees in just 12 hours........then fell back down 10 degrees and in fact, 2 days later is down 15 degrees.
From climate alarmist Jeff Masters(that I went to school with at U of M.
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Was the 101.1°F SST believable compared to the air temperature? The air temperature at Key Largo peaked at 95°F, with winds of 0-8 mph during the afternoon. With such light winds, sunlit shallow water surrounded by dark land can have an SST that exceeds the air temperature. 2/9
metmike: The huge tip off to me was when none of the surrounding water was this hot. But look at the graph above.
After hitting 100 the day before, the temp dropped 9 degrees that night..........then went up 10 degrees in 13 hours.
On 7-26-23 the temperature was down 14+ degrees to below 87 Deg. F.
Just the diurnal spread is a huge tip off that this is extremely shallow water being impacted by the near vertical sun there in July. You can find hundreds of places with very shallow water not being circulated(bay in this case) every year that get to 100 from the sun from the conditions similar to this.
I would be surprised if this temperature stands as a record.
Never mind, climate and oceanic science were hijacked, so nothing surprises me anymore )-:
Here's the current record.
The extreme SST in Kuwait Bay reached 37.6 °C, recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay.
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This was also located in a bay, which obviously can be heated to much warmer temps because the water is cut off from circulating cooler surrounding waters and the high angled, very powerful sun's impact is amplified by several orders of magnitude with stagnant waters temperatures.
Note, that the record from above was IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BAY.
Let's see if we can find the depth.
Here's the data/maps for the Kuwait Bay.
The record was recorded "in the middle" of the bay.
The blue triangles on the map above mark the synoptic stations. There are 3 that are along the 3 meter depth isobath lines. This would be 10 feet in depth, double the depth of the Florida record.
Then 4 more between 10-20+ meters, which would be 33-66+ feet.
I'm strongly thinking its the water that's 10 feet deep since that would clearly heat up the most.
However, for records, they may have a minimum water depth.
If they didn't, a 1 foot pool of trapped ocean water with a gauge could heat up to some crazy high temps.
So the question is.:
How deep does the water need to be in order for this to be a record in Florida?
The depth was a tad under 5 feet, 1.5 m.
I just thought of another big factor. Tides. They can be greatly amplified in bays.
These are some wonderful plots below. They actually show how sometimes the warm water can form in pockets down to 10 m at a temperature warmer than the surface.
This is the first time I've ever had the chance to look at data like this and could be missing something.
Larry's insights would be much appreciated, especially since tropical weather turns his crank.
I just accessed the buoy site that recorded the 101+ earlier in the week.
The current temp is 86.7 Deg. F.
| Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation. | |
 Water Temperature (WTMP): | 86.7 °F |
| Salinity (SAL): | 25.32 psu |
| Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): | -0.31 ft |
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=mnbf1
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Something freaky was going on to hit 101! The contribution from climate change was probably 2 deg. F.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
Hey Mike,
Great work! I've been talking about the exact same thing at AmericanWx. When even Dr. Masters is suggesting that the Manatee Bay buoy's 101.1F isn't a valid record breaker, one can take that to the bank. This is my most recent post on this at AmericanWx, which was done this morning:
"That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine.
Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement?
That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said.
The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet.
Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.'
Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared."
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/07/25/water-temperatures-in-florida/70463489007/
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And these were my followup comments:
"Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times. That's not normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM! Perhaps this was related to an incoming low tide? Low tide was at ~8:30AM.
The rain in that area this morning is the most widespread I've noticed in several weeks and has helped to drop the 10AM SST to 86.9F vs 94.5F at 10AM yesterday"
To add to the above, this is a post I did yesterday at American Wx:
"My concern is about the depth required to be considered for the world record. The prior record was 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay 'recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay' per this:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/
So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by a range of 10.1F from a 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters."
One more for now. I learned this from some else's post at AmericanWx regarding a Michael Lowry Tweet. The 101.1F is actually not even that buoy's record! It hit 102 in 2017:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59186-2023-tracking-the-tropics/?do=findComment&comment=6963320
To see the Lowry Tweet post, you may need to scroll down slightly. And below that you'll see one of my posts.
Larry,
I figured there was no way for you to not be on top of this........it's who you(we) are (-:
Great comments/work and posts!
We did completely independent research and investigations not knowing the other one was doing the same thing and came up with the same objective analysis from the same relevant data!
So where was the MSM mindset and reporting skills with their hundreds of stories and hype about the hottest temperature ever recorded because of climate change?
Just more evidence of the ANTI scientific method being used with impunity when it comes to all things climate science.
With regards to you, WxFollower....it's an honor to have somebody with your refined analytical skills and insights posting here!
On that note, let's make this thread of the week!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97624/
Thanks, Mike!
Here's a new post I just made there:
The buoys in shallow water near S FL that had been having daily highest SSTs in the amazing upper 90s to 101.1F and making media headlines recently have all plunged within just two days time. They're only in the 84-88F range as of 4PM today thanks to more rainfall and less sunshine. That's all it took after going several weeks with little rain and mainly clear to partly cloudy skies. This illustrates well why these shallow water buoy SSTs are invalid for world record keeping purposes against, for example, the 99.7 recorded in much deeper waters in the middle of the Kuwait Bay. When you have Dr. Masters agreeing, you can probably take it to the bank that they're invalid. Their variations of ~14-15F occurring just within the last 48 hours show that their SSTs are acting more like coastal land station air temperatures than SSTs:
Manatee Bay (range 86-101F):
Johnson Key (range 84-98):
Murray Key (range 84-99):
In stark contrast, the deeper water at the Key West buoy has cooled due to the same rainfall/less sunshine only ~1.5F. That along with daily ranges that have typically been no more than ~2F tells me that the Key West buoy, unlike the other three, likely has valid SSTs for world recordkeeping purposes. The hottest there so far this month has been 92.7F. Although not nearly as hot as those three shallow buoys, it is still quite hot for Key West and indicative of the marine heatwave in the area. The lowest there so far this month has been 88.7. So, the range so far this month at Key West has been only 4.0F. Compare that to the range of ~14-15F just for the last two days at those shallow buoys!
Key West (range 90.5-92.3):
Awesome stuff, Larry!
The internet and living at this time in human history is such a wonderful thing for people that love researching and learning and sharing it with others!
Sadly, nafarious entities use it and DISinformation/conspiracy theories for negative things but we can only do our best to apply our own talents authentically for good things and try to share that..........which makes our tiny worlds a better place.
Thanks, Mike! I just posted this over there:
Check out how much cooling of the extreme warmth of the SSTs shown by the buoys in/near shallow FL Bay occurred between late Monday afternoon's extreme highs and this morning's lows just from a weak surface trough causing a significant increase in showers (the most rain in weeks) and much less sunshine (these are SSTs (F), not air temperatures):
Manatee Bay: from 101 to 84
Johnson Key: from 98 to 79
Murray Key: from 99 to 81
In contrast the Key West buoy, which is in deeper waters and thus has a much lower intraday range that is often only ~1F, cooled much less (from 92.3 to 89.6) and is still very warm:
"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee Bay are in shallow water in a closed-off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a 'sea surface temperature,' as that implies open ocean."
Thanks, Larry!
A buoy in Manatee Bay recorded 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit on Monday evening, as coral reefs suffer
The Kuwait Bay reading was captured 25 to 38 feet below the surface some four miles off the coast. The Manatee Bay reading in Florida, meanwhile, was only five feet deep and much closer to land.
However, what the media missed is that MNBF1 is not an ocean buoy at all, in fact it is partially inland, designated as part of the Everglades National Park, and not in the waters of the Atlantic Ocean, as seen in this Google Earth image in Figure 2:
On this Google Earth closeup, seen in Figure 3, we can see this buoy is in exceptionally shallow water, near the shoreline – you can see the bottom of the bay.
Figure 3, Google Earth closeup image showing placement of buoy MNBF1 at Bay Point of Manatee bay.
Note how shallow the water is, enabling you to see the dark bottom.
Figure 5: plot of temperature data from Manatee Bay buoy MNBF1 from 2004 with peak temperatures noted. Note also that in 2009, temperature hit 100°F there. Source: Michael Lowry SFNRC.
Today, the AmericanWx poster Typhoon Tip posted this:
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-world-oceans-surface-temperature-eu.html
... you guys can go ahead and squabble about the validity of the above content from which ever perspective and/or narrative that is either conveniently(inconveniently) affected by what it is saying ... ( LOL )... I don't care,
but when I read this statement, which I've read/heard countless times from other sources ...
"Oceans have absorbed 90 percent of the excess heat produced by human activity since the dawn of the industrial age, according to scientists."
I hear this snarky internal voice ask, ' when is the ocean going to give it back' umm
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I posted this in response: see next post
My reply to Tip:
This article includes the following:
"Last month, temperatures of 38.3 C—as hot as a jacuzzi—were recorded off the Florida coast, which could be a world-record high for a point measurement if the figure is confirmed."
The article has a number of valid points/stats illustrating the amazing record warmth of the oceans. But it could have been better if the writers had done their homework regarding what I quoted. They imo should have either left the quoted portion out or stated the reasons that the 38.3C at Manatee Bay buoy isn't a valid ocean temperature as regards world records as Dr. Masters said (so shallow you can see sunlight absorbing dark bottom (see below), 10F range that day/up to 3.5F hourly ranges, affected by tides, near shoreline/sheltered, water cooled to 84F 60 hours later (see below)). Furthermore, the 38.3C/101.1F isn't even a record for that location as it hit 102F on 8/15/2017. So, there was no way the 101.1F could be a world record of any kind:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59186-2023-tracking-the-tropics/?do=findComment&comment=6963320
If they had reported on that same day's 92.3F at the Key West buoy, which is itself ridiculously hot and probably near records for it, that would have been legitimate. But due to sloppy journalism, they invite AGW skeptics to point out the Manatee Bay buoy's 101.1F as deceptive, which it is, and thus result in them discrediting the entire article even though the rest of the article looks good to me.
Manatee Bay buoy: Sheltered near shore shallow with dark bottom:
Fell from 101.1F 6PM 7/24/23 to 83.9F 5AM 7/27/23:
Next post in thread from Bluewave: he posts a better article to state how hot the Keys and nearby have been:
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Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.
The better article:
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I replied to Bluewave:
This is a much better way to state the heat of the water in/near the Keys.
Great exchange, Larry!
Just to let you know, I've been following Jeff Berardelli on twitter for a couple of years. I do it for a similar reason to why I watch Fox to find out what they are stating about Trump.
He frequently exaggerates and misinterprets data so that it always lines up with his catastrophic climate crisis position. He's the king of cherry picking.
One way that you can immediately tell people like this are not objective scientists is they almost never have much to say about all the benefits of climate change/global warming........and there's actually more benefits but they are obsessed with the negatives.
An authentically objective scientist doesn't only tell you about 1 side. That's just politics and the ANTI scientific method. I have no use for that sort of agenda, except I still follow people like that (they are everywhere), to try to understand where they are coming from............and fact check in case they are right. BECAUSE SOMETIMES THEY ARE RIGHT, just like Fox is sometimes right about Trump, despite their bs and agenda most of the time.
Here's a tweet of his from yesterday:
people my fingers hurt.
Quote Tweet
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProf
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I don't think people understand how big of an impact humans have had on coral reefs. In little more than a generation we have wiped out the majority of coral cover. Warming waters, nutrient pollution from runoff and disease have taken a huge toll. Source: @BillPrecht
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This is an extremely misleading as he looked to find the most extreme statement from 1 person and stated it like it's proven science with his eye catching graphic.
I get that these very warm temperatures are bleaching coral in many places but the vast majority of statements coming out of the woodwork about coral bleaching are not based on objective science:
Last year, for instance we had this:
Updated 6:15 AM EDT, Wed May 11, 2022
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Then, 3 months later we get this:
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stdpornSeog 4s6ml8u12054m91t2t6cgg03A3Puuch8m t:3i2t aM08u3 ·
The latest UNESCO decision to NOT list the reef as endangered has got a lot of reef “experts” going into overdrive with their doom predictions. The Australia Academy of Science just released a report saying damage could be irreversible. What damage! Clearly, they are ignoring the statistics from the Australian Institute of Marine Science showing that we have record high amounts of coral after the four supposedly devastating bleaching events since 2016.Of course there will be a bad cyclone season some time soon and the amount of coral will temporarily decline – but clearly they are misleading us on the reef. So much for the trustworthiness of the Australian Academy of Pseudo-science. https://www.science.org.au/.../climate-change-impacts-on...
https://www.facebook.com/DrPeterRidd/
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Dave Burton
March 25, 2023 8:58 am
Dr. Ridd’s lecture is wonderfully informative, and his comment about corals preferring warm water is spot on. Here’s a map of the world’s coral reefs. Note how they are clustered around the equator:
Note that very warm southern Red Sea is dotted with healthy coral reefs — unlike the cooler Mediterranean.
Some coral inhabit temperate zones, but most prefer tropics. In fact, where there are seasons, corals grow fastest in summer.
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Peter Ridd is one of the worlds most highly credentialed scientists in this particular field with over 100 peer reviewed papers and articles.
https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/view/jcu/DA5453C168D269833E636FF058546F84.html
Number of items: 79.
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter-Ridd
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BSc, Dip Ed, PhD
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter-Ridd
122
Publications
4,704
Citations
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He ended up getting fired from his job because of his scientific views that contradicted the mainstream climate crisis narratives.
Welcome climate science in the year 2023. Either your work lines up with the corrupt, extremely biased, one sided mainstream scientific position or they will come after you!
by: Jeff Berardelli
Posted:
Updated:
As a result of this developing strong El Niño, on top of global warming, global surface temperatures reached record heights not seen in 120,000 years last week.
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No Jeff!
Warmest in 1,000 years, yes.
An authentic climate optimum for life on this planet.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92155/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90279/#90286
Was the Medieval WARM Period real?
See for yourself below.
For the Medieval Warm Period compared to today below:
Red balloons showed it was warmer.
Blue was colder than today(in that study)
Green was wetter/more precip
Yellow was drier
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/03/documenting-the-global-extent-of-the-medieval-warm-period/
If you go to the link below, you can hit those individual balloons and get each individual study:
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Over 100 studies from the Medieval Warm Period, most of which show the planet was this warm or warmer 1,000 years ago. It was also this warm 2,000 years ago during the Roman Warm Period and also just over 3,000 years ago, during the Minoan Warm period. Medieval Warm Period Project: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php
 Where did the data from the bar graphs above come from so that we know that this is the authentic science vs the one that the MSM and dems describe with the fake climate crisis(where they can't show the data to prove)? List of Scientists Whose Work We Cite: http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/scientists.php List of Research Institutions Associated With the Work We Cite http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/institutions.php | ||
They've been wrong every year about the absurd, dire predictions and it's extremely annoying to authentic atmospheric scientists, like metmike to witness our field corrupted so badly.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/02/climate-change-short-on-proof-drowning-in-nonsense/
Ask yourself how the Vikings were living in Greenland and growing some cold season crops for several hundred years in regions under ice right now if it wasn't warmer than this during the Medieval Warm Period?
For about 400 years centered around 1200 AD, Viking farmers lived in two colonies in Greenland, growing a few crops and raising herds of cattle and sheep. As many as 2500 Vikings may have inhabited the two colonies before they disappeared.
Conventional wisdom says that they died out as the climate got colder after the end of the Medieval Warm Period, capped by a huge eruption in Indonesia on Lombok Island in 1257 AD that is ranked the most powerful in the last 7000 years by geologists, according to a recent article in Smithsonian magazine. Large volcanic eruptions are known to cause significant cooling of climate over several years due to reflection of sunlight back to space from small sulfuric acid drops lofted high into the atmosphere during the eruption. You can read more about this fascinating history at
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/why-greenland-vikings-vanished-180962119/.
They discovered Greenland during a time known as the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted from about 900 to 1300. Sea ice decreased during those centuries, so sailing from Scandinavia to Greenland became less hazardous. Longer growing seasons made it feasible to graze cattle, sheep and goats in the meadows along sheltered fjords on Greenland’s southwest coast.
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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180604151150.htm
Published June 4 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study included contributions from collaborators at Dartmouth College.
People might be surprised to see how today's frigid Greenland looked during the last two interglacial periods. Today, northwest Greenland hovers in the 30s and low 40s Fahrenheit and weathers snowstorms in summer. But average summer temperatures in the early Holocene (8,000 to 11,000 years ago) and Last Interglacial (116,000 to 130,000 years ago) climbed well into the 50s.
During the Last Interglacial, global sea levels increased by 15 to 30 feet, largely due to thinning of Greenland and Antarctica's ice sheets. But now Northwestern's team believes northern Greenland's ice sheet experienced stronger warming than previously thought, which could mean that Greenland is more responsible for that sea-level rise.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/world/viking-mountain-pass-norway-scn/index.html
In recent years, climate change has caused mountain glaciers to melt away, revealing well-preserved markers from different periods in history beneath. This is what happened in Lendbreen, Norway.
They also found evidence of a permanent shelter on the pass. The pass was used for 700 years.“The start around AD 300 was a time when local settlement activity was picking up,” said James H. Barrett, study co-author and program partner, in a statement. “When the use of the pass intensified around AD 1000, during the Viking Age, it was a time of increased mobility, political centralisation and growing trade and urbanisation in Northern Europe.”
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It's doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that evidence of people living for hundreds of years underneath recently melting ice proves that it had to BE WARMER.
Actually, it doesn't take a mainstream climate scientist to apply common sense in order to understand this because mainstream climate science hijacked climate science and REWROTE climate history to wipe out the inconvenient Medieval Warm Period, so guys like Jeff Beradelli can state junk science, like "this is the warmest in 100,000 years.
Here's what they(the IPCC) actually did:
https://friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/IPCC%20TEMPERATURE%20FIDDLING.pdf
The IPCC writes the fake climate crisis bible with its regular reports and the followers of the climate crisis religion believe every bit of the junk science.
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The Medieval Warm Period WAS global not the absurd defense/claim that it was just one region of northern Europe and somehow lasted for hundreds of years and didn't impact the rest of the planet.
They use climate model that have equations that give CO2 42% more forcing than it's really causing.
RADIATIVE FORCING BY CO2 OBSERVED AT TOP OF
ATMOSPHERE FROM 2002-2019
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10605.pdf
"The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report predicted 0.508±0.102 Wm−2RF resulting from this CO2 increase, 42% more forcing than actually observed. The lack of quantitative long-term global OLR studies may be permitting inaccu-racies to persist in general circulation model forecasts of the effects of rising CO2 or other greenhouse gasses."
Claiming that these heat waves that suddenly emerged explain all the missing heat for 30 year is just confirmation bias/wanting to be right because the missing heat has already been found..........the absolute proof above shows that the wrong mathematical equations have been exaggerating the amount of heat from CO2 by 42%.
IT WAS MEASURED!
The complete lack of acknowledging this profound measurement, then using it to adjust the models to reality(which is what the scientific method demands) shows that the models are truly political tools.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/57636/
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Sadly, this is not much different than the political divide in the US and belief that Trump won the election by the majority of Rs. People that are convinced in something that isn't so who interpret all information so that it tells them what they want to believe. The ANTI scientific method.
Instead of recognizing the true amount of contribution from climate change based on authentic science, they cherry pick every extreme and use it to amplify the real amount from climate change.
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
by Jeremy Hance on 28 March 2013
Critics of climate change often claim that warming has stopped since the late 1990s. While this is categorically false (the last decade was the warmest on record and 2005 and 2010 are generally considered tied for the warmest year), scientists do admit that warming hasn’t occurred over land as rapidly as predicted in the last ten years, especially given continually rising greenhouse gas emissions. But a recent study in Geophysical Research Letters has found this so-called missing heat: 700 meters below the surface of the ocean.
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This is what their argument was above. Problem is that, since then we measured the actual CO2 forcing with accurate new technology. The mismatch between excess heat predicted from models and reality is NOT in fact getting stored in the deep oceans(of course some heat does get stored there and most of the heat on our planet is stored in the oceans). It's coming from bad model equations predicting 42% more heat/forcing over the actual amount measured.
The search is over for the speculated missing heat. There never was missing heat to begin with! It's completely fake heat manufactured with bad equations in order to use global climate models as political tools and bolster flawed speculative scientific theories.
Let's provide a good analogy.
This is like 2+2=4 authentic science.
But they keep insisting that 2+2=7 because the models are programmed with that bad math.
Here in 2023(and with every extreme), we are getting a huge temporary boost of +3 from a NON greenhouse gas warming variation.
The new, authentic science equation becomes 2+2+3=7
And their cognitive bias, anti scientific mentality is to insist that it's proof that 2+2=7
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That's a figurative, mathematical illustration for how they ignore/abuse the Golden Rule of Climate Extremes but it also applies to many realms when it comes to humans cognitive/confirmation bias.
You will NEVER get anybody that believes we have a climate crisis to see this. Their brains define the math as 2+2=7. So every time there is a 2+2 on the left side of the equation and a 7 on the right side of the equation, they will completely ignore everything else and use it to confirm 2+2=7.
This is what I've learned today from reading this thread and other sources:
- The FL Keys coral reef is just south of the Keys, where SSTs have recently averaged in the 89-92F range as per the map below. The hotter areas to the north in the more shallow waters, including where it shows 93F, don't have reefs.
-Bleaching threshold is 30.7C/87.3F per horizontal light blue line on this:
https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/71/2023/08/keys-sst-change-2.jpg
-It isn't that just exceeding the 87.3F is crucial as that has happened most summers for at least short periods going back 20+ years but rather the length of time that it is exceeded without a break.
-SSTs back in the 1980s averaged 29.2C/84.6F in mid-summer but have increased in recent years by 3F to 30.9C/87.6F due to AGW. That, alone, greatly increases the average time each summer that the coral is in waters over 87.3F
-On top of that, the unique wx pattern this mid-summer has allowed average temps to be even warmer than the 87.6F by 3F or 32.6C/90.6F, which I also showed in the image above.
-So, FL Keys coral reefs are, indeed, under very high stress this summer with SSTs exceeding the 87.3F bleaching threshold since ~June 11th. That's 8 straight weeks, with ~half that period at 90F+! There's been no other summer nearly that stressful in recorded history:
https://www.wfla.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/71/2023/08/keys-sst-change-2.jpg
Thanks much, Larry!
I agree with that.
My entire issue is with all the gloom and doom CHERRY PICKING of extreme weather and extreme scenario's from natural variability that bear no resemblance to the authentic (climate) science and never a mention of things like........we have increased photosynthesis by 26% with the increase of CO2 by 130 parts per million because of human emissions.
Each +5ppm = +1% in plant productively, including global food production.
DeathbyGreening:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
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This specific story also has 2 sides:
February 15, 2023
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/pacific-coral-reefs-adapting-to-warmer-waters-study-finds
https://coral.org/en/blog/coral-reefs-can-adapt-to-climate-change-heres-how/
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.15725
Corals are not expected to do well with climate change. But the ability to adapt to warmer oceans could give them more time
Hey Mike,
You're welcome. I'm glad that there's hope for some of the coral to adapt to higher temperatures and at least buy several more decades of time.
https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2022/11/the-miraculous-resilience-of-the-great-barrier-reef/
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The saddest thing is that it's literally impossible to get authentic science on many topics related to climate science. It's been censored by almost every reporting source. They intentionally control certain, select realms of science, this one is easier than most.
They hijack it and take it over for their agenda, much like the way that they rewrote climate history to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period that was likely warmer than this as I demonstrated here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97607/#97943
As an atmospheric scientist with data, I can apply the laws of physics and meteorology to fact check and filter out the crapola that dominates the vast majority of (DIS)information.
I'm no expert on coral, however. I may have a degree in atmospheric AND oceanic science but don't have the elite expertise to completely debunk things that are nonsense.
So what to do?
For me, in this case I've decided to give a tremendous amount of weighting to this guy above because his statements and science have remained the most consistent with the science/facts and he is not a cherry picker. He has been shunned by those that I know are exaggerating and have been wrong repeatedly, which is a good thing for his credibility. He stands up for authentic science, even if its costing him. Could he be in denial of what's really going on? This is always possible but somebody with his very impressive credentials AND is willing to stake their reputations on what they present as solid science(lose their job) isn't likely to fit that description.
It reminds me of the polar bears are threatened DISinformation marketing schemes they used for 2 decades. Arctic ice was melting. What lives in the Arctic? Polar bears. Perfect. Let's create a lovable mascot that lives in the Arctic that will die off if all the ice melts away because of the climate crisis.
You'll note we don't hear that one so much anymore after being bombarded constantly with images, some of dying bears, supposedly from climate change.
However, even today if you try to get honest, authentic information about the polar bears its impossible because the gatekeepers have completely hijacked that field for their agenda............but fortunately, the science world has a brilliant, informed and honest scientist, Susan Crockford that tells the truth/authentic facts.
She is shunned by mainstream polar bear scientists/institutions because she won't fall in line with their corrupt science/agenda. Sad world that we live in today. Science has been hijacked by corrupt and dishonest entities to accomplish their agendas. I don't doubt that most scientists are sincere about their beliefs..........and so are the majority of Rs that are convinced Biden stole the election. We assume that, because scientists are more educated that they would not have the same bias's as others.
I'm here to tell you that many who are more educated than me can be completely unable to process the significance of no brainer empirical data because it contradicts what their brains have been programmed to believe is impossible.(confirmation bias). And new data is interpreted using, locked in preconceived notions of how they see the world. They belong to tribes of a sort too and practice the ANTI scientific method. They look for and generate data that defends their stated positions instead of being skeptical or scrutinizing it. AND THEY COLLUDE WITH EACH OTHER! Punishing outsiders with skeptical views, like Peter Ridd and Susan Crockford.
https://polarbearscience.com/about-2/
Hey Mike,
I just checked the Key West Buoy's SST and it is all of the way down to 87F, down 5F from just over two weeks ago! After being warmer than the coral bleaching SST of ~87.3F since mid June at Key West and peaking in the high 92s on the hottest days, it has finally cooled just below that crucial temperature and is now just under 87F! Some good news that the MSM probably won't report. Let's see how long it will stay down in that vicinity. I'm sort of excited!
This is potentially great news, Larry!!
Maybe an unusually early peak in the ocean temp at that location?
has there been a shift in the recent weather pattern there?
we don’t want this for other reasons but a tropical storm or hurricane passing by would drop temps down.
