KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, July 15, 2022  

8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey

                       Mfg Idx (expected -1; previous -1.2)

                       Employment Idx (previous 19.0)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 5.3)

                       Prices Received (previous 43.6)

8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.9%; previous -0.3%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.5%)

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes

                       Import Prices (expected +0.7%; previous +0.6%)

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.1%)

                       Petroleum Prices (previous +6.7%)

9:15 AM ET. June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 80.5%; previous 79.0%)

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)

10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

                       Total Inventories (expected +1.2%; previous +1.2%)

10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 50.2; previous 50.2)

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 46.8)

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 55.4)

Monday, July 18, 2022  

10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index

                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 67)

4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data

Tuesday, July 19, 2022 

8:30 PM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

                       Total Starts (previous 1.549M)

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -14.4%)

                       Building Permits (previous 1.695M)

                       Building Permits, M/M% (previous -7.0%)

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed lower on Thursday as investors reeled from shock inflation data and digested earnings from some of Wall Street's big banks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, June's low crossing at 29,653.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,732.77 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,732.77. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 33.272.34. First support is today's low crossing at 30.143.93. Second support is June's low crossing at 29.653.29. 

The September NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,743.34 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the decline off last-Friday's high, The June 30^th low crossing at 11,351.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average 12,106.05 would signal that the near-term trend has turned sideways to higher. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,106.05. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the June 30^th low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50.

The September S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 30^th low crossing at 3741.25 would confirm that a double top with the June 28^th high has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3944.25 would renew the rally off June's low while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below today's low crossing at 3723.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3944.25. Second resistance is the May 31^st high crossing at 4204.75. First support is today's low crossing at 3723.75. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.    

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September T-bonds closed down 24-pts. at 139-19. 

September T-bonds posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off Monday's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-03 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-03. Second support is the June 28^th low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 

September T-notes closed down 114 pts. at 118.150.

September T-notes posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.207 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.207. Second support is the June 28^th low crossing at 116.110.  

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $88.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $101.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.37. First support is today's low crossing at $90.56. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $88.16.  

August heating oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8753 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8753. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9550. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.3510. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.   

August unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6305 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6305. Second resistance is the June 29^th high crossing at $3.8672. First support is today's low crossing at $3.0999. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 2.9354.

August Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.592 is the next upside target. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 6.898. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.592. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.      

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extended this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.567 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $106.878. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $105.567.   

The September Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.04122 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.02393. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.04122. First support is today's low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 

The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2120 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2120. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2312. First support is today's low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.  

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00981 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03794 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03250. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03794. First support the 75% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.01656. Second support is the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it posted a new low for the year.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.17. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79. Second support is the October-2020 low crossing at 75.06.

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074009 would signal that the short-term trend has turned neutral to high prices are possible near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074009. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076019. First support is today's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    

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August gold closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low crossing at $1694.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1790.10 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1749.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1790.10. First support is today's low crossing at $1695.00. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $1694.90.  

September silver closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.295 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.234. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.295. First support is today's low crossing at 18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 . 

September copper closed lower on Thursday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6830 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 3.5800. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6830. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.2498. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 2.8770.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up $0.05 3/4-cents at $6.01. 

December corn closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.45. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.93 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    

September wheat closed down $0.15 3/4-cents at $7.95.  

September wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.09 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.09 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.41. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $7.85 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.

September Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.13 1/2-cents at $8.48 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.68 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.68 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.12 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.03 1/4-cents at $9.10 1/2.

September Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Monday's  high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.20 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.60 1/2. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed down $0.08 1/2-cents at $13.41.

November soybeans closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.24 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.24 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.78 3/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.

December soybean meal closed up $0.10 at $402.60. 

December soybean meal closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-week's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21^st high crossing at $429.60. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  

December soybean oil closed down 93-pts. at 55.78. 

December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance last-Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.85. First support is today's low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed down $0.85 at $109.65. 

August hogs closed lower on Thursday and filled Wednesday's gap crossing at $109.17. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.75 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $111.75. Second resistance is the April 28^th high crossing at $114.30. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.38. Second support is June's low crossing at $100.25. 

August cattle closed down $1.48 at $135.40 

August cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidate some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $137.95 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $132.88 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9^th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25^th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25^th gap crossing at $140.27. First support Monday's low crossing at $132.88. Second support is June's low crossing at $131.70. Third support is May's low crossing at $129.97.    

August Feeder cattle closed down $1.70 at $179.10. 

August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's rally, March's high crossing at $182.10 is the next upside target. Close below Monday's low crossing at $170.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $182.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $187.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $170.00. Second support is the May 31^st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.    

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.16 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.16. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is today's low crossing at $19.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                    

September cocoa closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.71 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.   

October sugar closed lower on Thursday as they consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this months rally, June's high crossing at 19.89 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off May's high, the February 28^th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.                      

October cotton closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.