INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - June 11, 2021, 4:47 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Tuesday, June 15, 2021 



7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



8:30 AM ET. June Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 24.3)



                       Employment Idx (previous 13.6)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 28.9)



                       Prices Received (previous 37.1)



8:30 AM ET. May Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -0.8%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -0.8%)



8:30 AM ET. May PPI



                       PPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)



                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.7%)



                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.7%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +14.5%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +14.5%)



9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization



                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.7%)



                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 74.9%)



                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.5)



10:00 AM ET. June NAHB Housing Market Index



                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 83)



10:00 AM ET. April Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (previous +0.3%)



4:00 PM ET. April Treasury International Capital Data



4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.1M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.4M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.8M)



  N/A              Delaware Separation Day holiday



  N/A              U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,127.08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 35,091.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 34,849.32. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 35,091.56. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,127.08. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at 33,473.80. 

 

The June NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 14,064.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,617.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 13,997.75. Second resistance is the April 29th high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,617.62. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45. 



The June S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally above May's high crossing at 4238.25, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4160.40 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4249.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4190.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4160.40.  



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 1/32's at 160-30. 

  

June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally of May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 160-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 161-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 160-15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-21. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 155-14.  



June T-notes closed down 30-pts. at 133.225.



June T-notes closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.138 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 134.020. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.138. Second support is May's low crossing at 131.270. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally to a new high close.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $71.24. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.45.  



July heating oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.62. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $206.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $213.62. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $228.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $206.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $197.25.   



July unleaded gas closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $208.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $223.65. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $228.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $215.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $208.51.   



July Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.062 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.330. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3.848. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.062. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.951. 



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 90.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, January's low crossing 89.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 90.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.76. First support is May's low crossing 89.51. Second support is January's low crossing at 89.15.  



The June Euro closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.90 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 123.08 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 123.08. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.90 Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 120.58. 



The June British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3996 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is the May 13th low crossing at 1.4081. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3996.

 

The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1205. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1008.



The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.51 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off April's low, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 83.66 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 83.66. First support is the May 13th low crossing at 81.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.51. 



The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0091656 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093085. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1951.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-March decline crossing at $1951.50. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1822.50.  



July silver closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.883 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 28.451. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March-decline crossing at 29.199. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.883. 



July copper closed higher on Friday as it the trading range of the past five-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.27 would open the door for a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 418.88. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 470.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 470.70. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 478.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 444.27. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 418.88.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July Corn closed down $0.14 1/2-cents at $6.84 1/2. 



July corn closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to modestly lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $7.17 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $6.06 3/4.  



 July wheat closed down $0.03-cents at $6.80 3/4.  



July wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $7.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2.



July Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $6.38.

 

July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.17 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.70 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.17 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $5.88.



July Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.10 3/4-cents at $7.64 3/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this year's rally, the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.20.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans closed down $0.35 3/4-cents at $15.08 1/4.



July soybeans closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.11 1/2 increases the odds that Monday's high marked the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $17.00. First support is today's low crossing at $14.96 1/2. Second support is the May 26th low crossing at $14.89 1/4.



July soybean meal closed up $1.70 to $383.30. 



July soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $395.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.00. First support is today's low crossing at $377.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.      



July soybean oil closed down 348-pts. at 66.98. 



July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.15 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends today's decline, the May 24th low crossing at 64.23 is the next downside target. If July renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the May 24th low crossing at 64.23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.97.      

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $1.35 at $119.98. 



July hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.03. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $111.11.  



August cattle closed up $1.48 at $120.03. 



August cattle closed higher on Friday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.44 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's rally, the May 25th high crossing at $121.23 is the next upside target. If August renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at $111.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 25th high crossing at $121.23. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $122.80. First support is May's low crossing at $114.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.92. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $2.83 at $151.23. 


August Feeder cattle gapped up and closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.17 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at $145.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $157.20. First support is June's low crossing at $145.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.52. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.              



July cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                 



July sugar closed lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.83 is the next downside target.     



July cotton closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.           

Comments
By metmike - June 12, 2021, 12:10 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!


Producers comments about their crops:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70437/


weather: Big early morning rains hammered the corn and beans.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/


USDA

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70763/


Exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70606/


Oil reserves.......Gunter

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70824/


Heat coming up supporting the natural gas.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/


Inflation...and more

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70621/


Keystone pipeline, fake green energy

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70770/


CPI-inflation

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70756/

                                    

                CPI vs PCE......Tim   

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70875/