INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 11, 2021, 7:48 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, June 11, 2021  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 82.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 77.6)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 90.8)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 14,064.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,618.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 13,995.75. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 14,064.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,618.23. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at 12,912.45.



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally above May's high crossing at 4238.25, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4160.52 would signal that a double top with May's high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4238.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4160.52. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at 4029.25.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-22 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 161-15. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-31. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 159-05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157-22.  



June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low  crossing at 132.160 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 134.020. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 134.053. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 132.160. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 132.140.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



July crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $70.80. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $67.14. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $64.45.



July heating oil was slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0696 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1362. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.0696. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.9732.  



July unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1579 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $2.2365. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.1579. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0858.



July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off Wednesday's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.060 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.267. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.103. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.060.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $90.63 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $90.75. If June resumes the decline off March's high, January's low crossing at $89.16 is the next downside target. First resistance is the May 13th high crossing at $90.91. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $91.44. First support is May's low crossing at $89.52. Second support is the January low crossing at $89.16.



The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.91 is the next downside target. Closes above May's high crossing at $122.71 are needed to renew the rally off March's low. First resistance is May's high crossing at $122.71. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $121.43. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $121.06. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $120.91.

 

The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1.4091 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4256. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at 1.4602. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.4091. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3997.



The June Swiss Franc was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.1205. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 1.1233. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1047. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1009. 

 

The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 13th low crossing at $81.95 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If June resumes this year's rally, the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $83.28. Second resistance is the May-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $83.86. First support is the May 13th crossing at $81.95. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.51.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091666 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.092994. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 0.093874. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090740. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $1919.20. Second resistance is 62% retracement level of August-April-decline crossing at $1951.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1855.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1822.80.



July silver was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at $29.199. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $30.015. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $27.090. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $26.886. 



July copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4433 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888 later this summer. First resistance is the May 18th high crossing at 4.7820. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.8880. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4433. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 4.1888.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight erasing any of Thursday's gains following a neutral to friendly WASDE report. The overnight sell off was triggered by rain moving through the Dakota's and into Minnesota and across northern Nebraska and poised to enter Northwest Iowa later this morning. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is 75% retracement level of the 2012-2020-decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $7.07 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $7.35 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.65 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.42 1/2.       



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $7.04. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $7.18 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.69 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.39 1/2.

 

July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.17 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the May 18th high crossing at $6.70 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $5.88. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83.



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as rain has moved across the Dakota's and is poised to moving into Minnesota later this morning. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July resumes this year's rally, the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. Second resistance is the July-2017 high crossing at $8.68 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.20. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.12 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $16.67 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $16.23 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $16.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.12. Second support is May's low  crossing at $14.89 1/4.

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $3.73.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $410.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $457.20. First support is May's low crossing at $378.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $373.40.     


July soybean oil was lower overnight following Thursday's key reversal down. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 73.74. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.25. Second support is the May 24th low crossing at 64.23.    

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $0.18 at $121.33. 



July hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's rally, the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.54 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $123.60. Second resistance is the July-2014 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $133.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.81.  



August cattle closed up $0.28 at $118.55. 



August cattle closed higher on Thursday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at $111.92 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.49. Second resistance is the May 25th high crossing at $121.23. First support is May's low crossing at $114.62. Second support is January's low crossing at $111.92. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $0.13 at $148.40. 


August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at $145.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $152.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May-decline crossing at $157.20. First support is June's low crossing at $145.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $141.52.



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.45 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, the November-2016 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 17.60 is the next upside target.              



July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 23.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                 



July sugar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 18.25 is the next upside target. If July renews the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.78 is the next downside target.     



July cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.            

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By metmike - June 11, 2021, 12:59 p.m.
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