2-17-26 El Nino, here we come-FAST!            

                            54 responses |            

                Started by metmike - Feb. 17, 2026, 11:54 a.m.       

     https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/117969/

Record warm SUPER El Nino peaking this Winter:

El Nino is already strongly coupled to the atmosphere as seen below:

        Why This Winter Will Be The Most Impactful Yet!  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYk5bm5C6t4

Explaining the map above:

AI Overview

A 200mb vorticity potential map (more accurately referred to in meteorology as either a 200mb Velocity Potential map or a 200mb Potential Vorticity (PV) map) is a high-altitude weather chart used to identify where large-scale air masses are rising or sinking globally, serving as a premier tool for predicting tropical storm development and tracking climate patterns. [1, 2]The 200mb level sits near the top of the weather-producing atmosphere (the tropopause), roughly 39,000 feet (12,000 meters) above the Earth. This is where the jet stream flows and where deep tropical storms exhaust their air. [1, 2]Because "vorticity potential" usually implies Velocity Potential in tropical meteorology, or Potential Vorticity in mid-latitude storm tracking, here is how to read both maps:

1. If it is a 200mb Velocity Potential Map (Most Common)This map filters out messy wind data to show massive regions of atmospheric expansion (divergence) or squeezing (convergence). [1]

• Green/Blue Areas (Negative Anomalies / Rising Air): This means air is vigorously rushing upward from the Earth's surface and spreading out at the 200mb level. It acts like an atmospheric vacuum, fueling deep thunderstorms, clusters of convection, and enhancing tropical cyclone/hurricane development.
• Red/Orange Areas-BROWN ON THE MAP ABOVE (Positive Anomalies / Sinking Air): This indicates air is piling up at 200mb and pushing downward toward the surface. Sinking air compresses, warms, and dries out, acting like a lid that suppresses storms and stifles hurricane development. [1, 2, 3]

Weather forecasters use this map to track the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a massive wave of storminess that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days.

2. If it is a 200mb Potential Vorticity (PV) MapPotential Vorticity measures the atmospheric "spin" while factoring in how stable or stretched an air column is. [1, 2]

• High PV Values (Troughs / Storms): At 200mb, areas with high PV values indicate where the dynamic tropopause dips down, bringing cold, spinning stratospheric air into the upper troposphere. This frequently signals the presence of strong upper-level low-pressure systems, jet streaks, and severe winter storms.
• Low PV Values (Ridges / Fair Weather): Low PV at this height represents stable, high-pressure ridges where weather is generally calm, warm, and sunny

500 mb map below which is the middle point of the atmosphere using it's weight.

This is the Nov-Dec-Jan forecast from the CFS model.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYk5bm5C6t4

Here's the J-F-M 2027 forecast from the European model. Strong agreement!

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/

Get all of Jeff's awesome weather tutorials here:

https://www.theweatherprediction.com/