It's another Lengthy heat wave coming up this week for X # of days. We will likely have another Heat Advisory for the Evansville area this Tue-Thu, with the heat possibly lingering on Friday...........and even longer!
This thread was created for our Fall T-Ball program at McCutchanville/Evansville, IN that is playing evening games this week.
We should note that HEAT WAVES are huge air masses that can be predicted days in advance with high confidence, while many rain events can't be known until we wait to see if they actually develop on the LIVE RADAR.
Get all the comprehensive weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Highs for upcoming week: Days 3-7.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml
+++++++++++++
The Heat Index will still be at 95+ deg. F at 6pm on Tue-Wed and probably Thu! Probably Thu, only because Thu is 4 days from now and the relief on Fri could get here a day early.........or the heat dome could last for numerous additional days!
Highs Wed-Thu below(Tue will be just as hot). Keep in mind that the Heat Index (what it feels like and the impact on our bodies) will be 10 degrees higher than these actual thermometer readings because of the high dew points/humidity.
Temperatures will be dropping from those late afternoon highs but the Heat Index will still be above 90 deg.F at 7pm.
AI Overview
Local Evansville, IN weather source:
Keep in mind that heat domes can be part of a blocked pattern that is hard to break down and this one could linger for X additional days beyond the forecast below.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=281&y=89&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=281&map_y=89
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind around 8 mph.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 68. East wind around 7 mph.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 96. South southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Calm wind.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Calm wind.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. Light and variable wind.
Friday
A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning.
++++++
Again, the Heat Index on Tuesday-Thursday will be 10 degrees higher at times and reaching well above 100. In the afternoon, probably not dropping below 90 until well after 7pm.
+++++++++++++++
The stat in the left/bottom corner is for 6pm, Tuesday. Temperature 92 deg. F, Heat Index 98 deb. F!
AI Overview
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=284&y=87&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=284&map_y=88
Tuesday
High: 98 °F
.HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ TO 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ TUESDAY... * WHAT...High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with stifling humidity creating Peak Heat Index values up to around 105 degrees. * WHERE...All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ to 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
++++++++++++
AI Overview
This is the AI generated numerical weather guidance for Tue and Wed in Evansville, IN. Note the bottom left corner stats at 6pm on Tuesday, the time that I picked because a T-Ball game is schedule to start at 5:30 pm(which will be even hotter than 6pm. Temperature of 91 deg. F and Heat Index 100 deg. F.
See the pediatric and youth sports guidelines above for a Heat Index this high. Not metmike, the AUTHORITIES, ALL OF THEM AGREE WITH THIS! Violating this advice is unnecessarily putting the health and lives of young children at risk.
Earlier this month, this happened with similar conditions, a heat advisory in the Knoxville, TN area(with a Heat Index just LESS THAN 100 deg F). These were middle school kids and they were NOT participating in a a sport, while being outside for around an hour.
They were under severe stress from the bomb threat which likely contributed too.
AI Overview
It does seem odd that so many students were impacted in just an hour with a Heat Index under 100 above but with a bomb threat being a MUCH higher threat, you must follow protocol for the safety of the children and the actual heat/humidity didn't seem hot enough to cause this. I speculate that extreme stress from the bomb threat, likely triggered a cortisol hormone gush which made them especially vulnerable to the heat that morning.
Safety of the children should always take priority using the advice of well established heat advisory guidelines here in 2026.
A program that blatantly violates that could end up with 1 (or more) critical heat related illness and potential disaster that should have been avoided.
Again, not my interpretation. I love the heat and do 1 hour intense steam sauna's 2 times a week with my tent/sauna at home.
Putting children at risk of harm from dangerous heat because you don't know any better is ignorance. Putting children at risk of harm from dangerous heat after being crystal clearly informed of the science and rock solid definitions of the conditions for what defines that risk from authoritative sources......but doing it anyway is called gross negligence.
AI Overview
The brown shade is a heat advisory. Some places already today(and additional days), other places, like Evansville, IN for Tuesday AND Wednesday.
Our NWS added Wednesday earlier this morning(as expected). Thursday is likely to be added also and possibly Friday.
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=284&y=91&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=284&map_y=90
...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Daily peak heat index values up to 105 degrees. * WHERE...Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ Tuesday to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.
+++++++++
Regarding the 3 T-Ball games we have scheduled Tue-Thu(my team plays today, fortunately with the pick of the week weather!) at McCutchanville Park.
At every practice and our 1st game we had several 3-4 year olds crying because they didn't want to be there or some other trivial reason. This is totally normal(they ended up having a blast and getting rainbow popsicles from 1 of the mom's after their first game, Saturday-mom's are awesome).
When this happens with the upcoming 3 scheduled games in the high heat, how will the coaches/parents know the difference between this normal behavior and them crying because of having heat exhaustion or even heat stoke????
Keep in mind that 3-4 year old children don't have a unique cry for each problem, most being trivial and this one being life threatening.
TAKE THEIR TEMPERATURE!!!!!!!
Heat Stroke
+++++++++++++
Infants and young children rely on adults to keep them cool and hydrated when it's hot outside. Take steps to protect kids on hot days.
++++++++++
We should keep in mind that a coach or commissioner cannot know what each child's medical condition is. They cannot know about an individual child's compromised heath or pre-existing conditions that would make them more vulnerable to the heat. Parents should know but a parent is going to trust the decisions being made by the officials who are supposed to be the responsible ones that do everything possible to protect their children from unnecessary risk.
Anybody making 3-4 year olds play T-Ball when the Heat Index is 100+, during a Heat Advisory is violating that trust and putting, at least some of those young children at a very elevated health and potentially life threatening risk.
The latest guidance keeps the Heat Index solidly above 100 degrees F until after 6pm the next several days.
Look for the NWS to extend the current Heat advisory to Thursday for sure and possibly as long as Saturday with this upper level heat DOME being one of the strongest of the entire Summer!
Pretty unusual in mid-September!
This is what the expansive, rain suppressing heat dome will look like from the last 0z run of the European Ensemble model. This is 500 mb which is around the mid point of the atmosphere based on its mass/weight. In this case
A 500 mb geopotential height of 597 on a summer weather map corresponds to an altitude of 5,947 meters (about 19,587 feet or 3.7 miles) above sea level.
The hotter it is the less dense the air and the fatter the atmosphere becomes with the 597 contour (for 500 mb) only showing up when the atmosphere has really expanded from HEAT.
500 mb pattern this week:
1. Last night/early morning Monday(9-14-26) . Note the upper level trough from Southeast Canada/Great Lakes dropping a very brief shot of cooler/drier air in today.
2. Look how incredibly fast the heat dome builds in by Tuesday/tomorrow afternoon(9-15-26)! WOW!
3. Thursday afternoon's massive heat dome. For September 17th, this has got to be one of the most impressive heat domes for this part of the country, this late in the year.
4. Saturday(9-19-26). The magnitude of the heat dome weakens a great deal but a strong upper level ridge is still in place.
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY for vulnerable groups!
Weather Forecast Office
https://www.weather.gov/ind/heatinfo
For additional weather information beyond heat, please visit our briefing page.
A Heat Advisory means that temperatures of at least 100°F* or Heat Index values of at least 105°F* are expected. Consider postponing or rescheduling any strenuous outdoor activities. If you must be outside, be sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. The young and elderly and those with medical conditions should use extra caution outdoors.
 |
|
 |  |
https://www.weather.gov/pah/EvansvilleDailyNormalsAndRecords
Please note the record highs for Evansville IN and the year, coming up this week:
September Record High/Year
14th 100/1939-Pleasant with LOW humidity-High was 86 H.I.=84(low humidity)
15th 99/1939-could be challenged-High was 96, Heat Index 103
16th 97/1954-good chance to tie/break this record-Actual high 95-Heat Index 92!
17th 96/1931-good chance to tie/break this record
18th 98/1953-Could be challenged???
19th 97/1954-Could be challenged????
20th 96/2022-Will the high heat linger this long????
As expected, the NWS has extended the Heat Advisory thru Friday(9-15 thru 9-18-26).
HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...Peak Daily Heat Index Values up to around 105 degrees. * WHERE...All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Record to near record hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The Heat Advisory has been extended thru Friday for the entire Quad State Region.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=289&y=88&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=288&map_y=88
Extended Forecast for Evansville area:
Click here for hazard details and duration
Heat Advisory until September 18, 07:00 PM CDT
Heat Advisory
NOW until 7:00pm Fri Heat Advisory Today High: 98 °F HOT
High: 98 °F HOT
High: 96 °F Sunny HOTThis is from the just updated 12z European Ensemble model, forecast for Wednesday afternoon (9-16-26)!!!
I would bet my house that there has never been a cutoff 600 dm high at 500 mb in the atmosphere in mid September in that part of the country in our country's 250 year old history.
Since this El Nino is now strongly coupled with the atmosphere, it's likely amplified this HEAT DOME!
Added: Look at the cutoff low in Northern California. That doesn't happen very often in September either.
As often is the case when a MEGA dome forms, it's tough to break down but that is usually in the core Summer months not September, when the atmosphere is typically getting more lively and progressive from the battle zone between hot/cold shifting south as the sun angle drops lower, resulting in loss of the powerful daytime heating that helps sustain HEAT DOMES.
So the Heat Advisory is now in effect until at least Saturday in Evansville! We could add Sunday and even Monday!
.HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Daily peak heat index values of 103 to 109 today and Thursday, then 100 to 105 Friday and Saturday.%20Wedn...%20-%20Evansville%20_%20Vanderburgh%20County%20Emergency%20Management%20Agency%20Facebook.png)
+++++++++++++=
As speculated earlier, the NWS just added Sunday:
1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026 /1224 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026/
...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Daily peak heat index values of 100 to 106.
* WHERE...All of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Record to near record hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses.+++++++++++++++
This product for the state of Indiana, has Evansville in EXTREME heat (purple) on Thu-Fri-Sat!
| |
 |  |
Same forecast, here on Thursday:
Note the latest satellite image below showing the massive, rain/cloud suppressing Heat Dome's impact with mostly clear skies.
Around the periphery of the Dome/just north of it are the clouds and storms/rain.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=287&y=86&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=287&map_y=86
This was the Heat Dome as measured last evening on the 0z European Ensemble model. In 4+ decades of being an atmospheric scientist, I've never seen anything like this in mid-September. Not even in mid-July!!!!!
I would bet there hasn't been anything like this for our part of the country, this late in the hot season for much longer than that.
So why aren't we smashing all time records every day???
1. We will do that for today, September 17, 2026.
2. However, the soils right now are not in severe drought and the humidity is not low which is needed to smash records highs in the warm season!
++++++++++++
https://www.weather.gov/pah/EvansvilleDailyNormalsAndRecords
Please note the record highs for Evansville IN and the year, coming up this week:
September Record High/Year
14th 100/1939-Pleasant with LOW humidity-High was 86 H.I.=84(low humidity)
15th 99/1939-could be challenged-High was 96, Heat Index 103
16th 97/1954-good chance to tie/break this record-Actual high 95-Heat Index 92!
17th 96/1931-good chance to tie/break this record-97 is the NEW record H.I. 102!
18th 98/1953-Could be challenged-97 Heat Index 104
19th 97/1954-Could be challenged
20th 96/2022-Could be challenged.
Re: Re: Re: Re: 6-25-26 MAJOR heat wave coming next week
By metmike - June 25, 2026, 4:50 p.m.
+++++++++++
Re: : 6-25-26 MAJOR heat wave coming next week
By metmike - June 27, 2026, 9:58 a.m.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/steam-baths-and-ovens-soil-moisture-summer
++++++++++++
Re: Re: 6-25-26 MAJOR heat(humidity) wave coming next week
By metmike - July 3, 2026, 9 a.m.
Heat wave? Wait until you see how hot it has been in the past
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1286600839489433&set=a.232272598255601
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
++++++++++++++
So the increase in CO2, causing the increase in vegetation and protection from widespread droughts(greater rains/higher dew points-higher soil moisture) has been LOWERING daytime heat!
The vast majority of record warm records in the US has been from night time lows. The DRY Western US is the exception where dew points and soil moisture is LOWER. That area of the country has seem most of the record max highs in the HOT season.
The hottest Summer ever, based on heat waves and day time heat is still 1936!
From the EPA
Figure 3. U.S. Annual HeatWaveIndex, 1895–2021
++++++++++++++++++++
4pm temperatures close to their peak here on 9-17-26 which set an all-time record in Evansville:
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-air-temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index
The Heat Index is actually a tad lower today with the actual temperature a tad higher. What gives???
1. The soils are drying out.
2. The dew points are a tad lower.
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83851
Highs next Mon-Tue-Wed of next week.
Highs next Tuesday/Wednesday will be ~20 degrees lower than this week and feel ~25+ degrees cooler!!
It will feel incredibly pleasant in this part of the country!
Midwest only data: CDDs the next 2 weeks on the right from the last 0z European Ensemble model in purple. Cooling down, almost to average next week(which is near 0).
Note the slow decline in seasonal CDDs for the Midwest which is getting close to ZERO with the green line. However, on the left, seasonal HDDs with the green line are soaring higher with the steepest slope at any time of year. HDDs.
Midwest only SEASONAL CDDs just past up HDDs this week and seasonal CDDs blow away HDDs from this point forward............for just the Midwest.
Same graphs for the ENTIRE COUNTRY below:
There is still plenty of heat left in the south until early October so that CDDs don't pass up HDDs until the 2nd week in October. The different scales that they use below makes the lines look MISleading. The graph on the left is 4+ times more amplified than the graph on the right. In other words, a value of 2 HDDS on the left graph lines up with a value of 9 CDDs on the right.
So the spike higher in HDDs on the left, above the green line is still nowhere close to the CDDs on the right, even at their lowest point..
Temperature rank in history for the first 17 days of September. #1 is the hottest ever!
By metmike - Sept. 18, 2026, 10:26 a.m.
This at least ties our record high for September 19th at 3pm and 4pm.
But look at the dew point!!! Down to 63 degrees, with the ground and air drying out! As a result, the Heat Index is only 2 degrees higher at 99 Deg. F and the first time of the last 5 days the Heat Index did not top 100 Deg. F!
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=281&y=91&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=281&map_y=91
+++++++++++++
This is the 4pm data below, close to the highs of the day. Note the much cooler air in the Upper Midwest. Almost 40 degrees cooler in the north, compared to the south!!! That air will plunge south early next week and bring great relief!
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-air-temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index
Note the lower dew points below where the ground has really dried out from intense heat and no rain.
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml# 
HUGE relief is on the way with certainty. Forecasting rain a couple days out is loaded with uncertainty because conditions, X, Y and Z must all come together in exactly the places you forecast the rain. Sometimes, it can rain an inch in 1 spot and 20 miles away, there is no rain. Sometimes, forecasting rain for 1 spot is impossible just 3 hours out when conditions are close to thresholds/marginal.
That is NOT the case with 1,000 mile wide air masses that are getting pushed strongly by a prevailing steering current.
Relief will begin on Monday. On Tuesday, an air mass that FEELS 30 degrees cooler during the day will be here and be deeply entrenched/ prevail thru the work week.
After the recent intense heat, it will feel wonderful!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83851
Highs Wed-Fri of this week below: 20 degrees cooler than last week!!!!
Lows Wed-Fri of this week below: Mid/Upper 50's
Huge contrast between the northern and southern US right now!
https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/national-wind-chill-heat-index
Frost advisory surrounding Lake Superior. This is late for their first frost!
Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
We've been enjoying the cool temperatures for a week now with incredibly low dew points. Not just from the very dry origin of the air mass but also the bone dry soils and flash drought.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/ChangeMaps.aspx
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Released September 24, 2026
It was a top 4 hottest September ever for us in Evansville. With the first 3 weeks being the hottest area. It would have been the driest ever except for 1 rain event that dumped almost all of our rain in 1 day.......much of that turning into runoff.