July 2nd, 2026 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/2026/07/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-june-2026-0-46-deg-c/
The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through June 2026) remains at +0.16 deg/ C/decade (+0.22 C/decade over land, +0.13 C/decade over oceans).
Prof. Eliot Jacobson@EliotJacobson
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In case your day is not yet full enough of fun-packed new climate data ... The June update for Total Column Precipitable Water was just released by ECMWF, and it shows yet another new record high for the Northern mid-latitudes, where over 50% of humans live. Wet times ahead.
The magnitude of the increase is distorted a bit because the graph shows the increase going from the bottom to the top of the graph from left(1943) to right(2026).
The actual increase is around 9%, going from 15.8 to 17.3 which is expected from the physics of the atmosphere.
For every increase in temperature of 1 deg. C, the atmosphere can hold around 7% more moisture.
https://www.remss.com/announcement/long-term-record-of-water-vapor-over-the-oceans/
https://courses.ems.psu.edu/meteo300/node/584
However, just because the warmer air can hold more moisture does not mean that it always does!!!!!
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-investigating-climate-changes-humidity-paradox/
So the point above is that the total moisture is increasing in most places but to get moisture to come out as rain, you often need to SATURATE the air mass. At 1 deg. C warmer the air can hold 7% MORE moisture but if it only has 4% more moisture in it, then it's 3% LESS saturated. This can actually reduce marginal rain events but increase rain amounts of SATURATED air masses. If there's something we know with certainty, a warmer atmosphere, all things being equal will INCREASE the total rain in many of the saturated air rain events, which are the extreme/heaviest ones.
Mike quoted:
At 1 deg. C warmer the air can hold 7% MORE moisture but if it only has 4% more moisture in it, then it's 3% LESS saturated. This can actually reduce marginal rain events but increase rain amounts of SATURATED air masses.
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Hey Mike,
Interesting! Could this mean both an increased flooding risk and increased drought risk at the same time from CC?
Thanks, Larry!
For some places, that have dry air and CO2 plays a greater role in warming, there might be an increase in drought(desert southwest). In other places, less drought from more moisture. Global drought has remained around the same during global warming.
In the West, climate models actually increase precipitation with less drought in some places because of more precipitation from a warmer Pacific Ocean with it's higher moisture content.
No doubt that the intensity of heavy down pours has increased the past 4 decades where we live.
https://www.wsmv.com/2026/05/28/heavy-downpours-increasing-across-us-climate-warms-study-finds/
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This 1 is a decade old but has some awesome graphics.
https://glisa.umich.edu/resources-tools/climate-impacts/extreme-precipitation/
If you REALLY want to increase widespread severe droughts, we know that history from having a COOLER atmosphere makes that much more likely.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Death by GREENING!
By metmike - Feb. 2, 2025, 7:54 a.m.
Here's a perfect example of why they get it so wrong using the global drought graph from above. Please tell me where on this graph below, that the climate change droughts are and where the natural droughts are since the year 2000? Impossible because the pattern is THE EXACT SAME! The MSM, in 2025 tells us that EVERY drought is now caused by climate change to the point that they use the terms interchangeably.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2017-state-climate-global-drought
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Global cooling and LOW CO2 levels are what cause widespread, extremely long lasting droughts with catastrophic global and huge regional famines!
Here in 2025, we are living in a climate optimum with absolute, scientific certainty!!
Causes and consequences of nineteenth century droughts in North America
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml
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You want a REAL climate CRISIS?
This is what it looks like:
Can you imagine if this below happened today? It's less likely because climate change and the current climate OPTIMUM is helping to PROTECT US!
The planet had a REAL climate crisis between 1876 and 1878.
50 million people died. 3% of the global population died from that real climate crisis!
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/
The Great Famine killed an estimated 12 to 29 million people in India. Image
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51F..04S/abstract
The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity.
NASA EXPLAINS THE DUST BOWL DROUGHT
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0319dustbowl.html
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Climate change in the United States, with 100% certainty is helping to protect us from widespread severe droughts.
Summer Climate Change in the Midwest and Great Plains due to Agricultural Development during the Twentieth Century
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/17/jcli-d-19-0096.1.xml
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https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/heavier-rainfall-in-129-us-cities
Let me put this graphic up again with the increasing precipitable water in the mid latitudes.
What makes this additionally interesting is the impact of increasing H2O to act as a positive feedback from the CO2 greenhouse gas warming.
This is complicated, however: Places that are already humid will have the least amount of increased warming from CO2 and H2O going up:
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From the previous thread:
Re: Re: 6-25-26 MAJOR heat(humidity) wave coming next week
By metmike - July 2, 2026, 1:17 a.m.
Here's another reason why most of the temperature forecasts in the humid areas with wet soils are busting from being too high and one of the things that guys like Jeff, apparently don't understand about the physics of the atmosphere in the very humid areas compared to dry areas.
We discussed this at length about why the West and deserts are warming faster than other regions at the same latitude. The highest/coldest/driest areas of the Northern Hemisphere are warming the fastest. H2O swamps CO2 at several radiation absorption bands that they have in common when its warm and humid. Low H2O means that radiation absorption band has room for CO2 to absorb additional heat radiation.
High H2O means LESS room for heat absorption at numerous radiation bands. So very warm, humid air masses WARM THE LEAST from CO2 greenhouse gas warming. Cold/dry the most.
This is why the warming has mostly been in the higher latitudes(and DESERTS).
Not that much heating from CO2 during heat waves that feature extremely high humidity, like this one.
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Longwave_Absorption_Coefficients_of_H2O_and_CO2.svg
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So the impacts get complicated on the amount of heating and where. However, the impact from increasing CO2 on photosynthesis IS UNIVERSAL AND HUGE. Going from 290 parts per million to the current 430 ppm is the best thing to happen to our planet and the creatures on it. The optimal level for life is over double this at 900 ppm.
So we can all discuss these negative impacts that apply to isolated extreme events(heat/rain) until the cows come home, while CO2 MASSIVELY greens up the entire planet 365 days a year!!!
Every +5 ppm equates to around an increase of 1% in plant growth/crop yields which add up to around +28% on average thanks to humans burning fossil fuels(each plant is different).
28% more food for humans. 28% more food for other creatures that eat plants. A booming biosphere. A climate OPTIMUM by authentic scientific standards.
https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/researchers-confirm-cause-earths-biggest-mass-extinction
The findings serve as a warning of sorts. Conditions preceding the extinction event are very similar to the climate of the past tens of millions of years, which is being altered by emissions from burning fossil fuels and other human activities.
“The biggest mass extinction of all time started from a world that is very similar to today in having a relatively cool, relatively well-oxygenated ocean, and then there was a giant injection of carbon dioxide into the Earth system. Understanding how Earth and Earth’s biota responded back then could inform us of what’s to come.”
“The bad news is, we are on track for Permian-Triassic levels of warming in worst-case scenario projections,” said Sperling. Temperatures increased 8-12° Celsius over thousands of years to cause the Great Dying, and today, over just 100-200 years, temperatures are projected to be 1.5-4° Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times by 2100. “But the good news is, we’re still at the point where we can change things and do something about it.”
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metmike: Look everyone, we're all going to die from the increase in CO2 because of human emissions from burning fossil fuels:
Just several HUGE problems with that:
1. They never show you the HONEST, big picture. When life died out in the period they refer to, CO2 levels were more than 10 times the current level, at times 252 million years ago.
2. We RESCUED the planet from dangerously LOW CO2 levels! The optimal level for life is 900 ppm and we are still not even half that.
The planet has greened up at least 28% from just the increase in CO2 the past 100+ years. The biosphere is booming. Food is much more abundant for most life. Life wants MUCH MORE CO2!!!! Cold still kills 10 times more humans and 200+ times more life Than heat does. This idea that we are killing the planet with BENEFICIAL CO2 is about as dumb as believing the earth is flat.
Death by greening:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
3. The BENEFICIAL CO2 that we're returning to the atmosphere was once in the atmosphere but got sequestered in the ground via, mostly dead plants and some animals. There is a finite amount of fossil fuels that we can afford to remove from the ground. All fossils fuels will begin running out later this century, starting with crude/natural gas, then coal. The even more massively greened up planet at that time will be gobbling up the CO2 in the atmosphere at an even greater rate than today. The greened up planet and crops needed to feed 10 billion people will be dependent on CO2 levels continuing to increase.
So guess what will happen when CO2 emissions decrease because we run out of fossil fuels????
THAT'S WHEN THE REAL DIE OFF WILL BEGIN!!!!!
And it will happen BEFORE CO2 gets to 600 ppm, which is still only 2/3rds of the optimal level. When CO2 crashes, humans will be doing everything they can to ELEVATE atmospheric CO2 levels, like greenhouses do to maximize plant growth but in our case, for survival.
Massive food shortages and starvation are inevitable, even with technological advancements. There will be 10 billion mouths to feed on the planet and we can’t do that NOT EVEN CLOSE with the old climate and those rock bottom CO2 levels that were barely above survival levels.
4. So we should be cutting back on fossil fuels today............to save them for our grandchildren to keep atmospheric CO2 levels from dropping as fast later this century.
5. Those that claim CO2 emissions stay in the atmosphere for 100 years are full of crap. Just during the Northern Hemisphere's Summer, every single Summer/growing season, CO2 actually DROPS every year because of the plants gobbling up MORE THAN all the emissions in the world gushing in. They only go up during our cold months/Winter, when plants are dormant. Take away most of those emissions and the plunge lower will be historic and catastrophic and several times faster than they went up.
In 25-30 years or so at the peak for plants consuming CO2, they will be gobbling up 40% MORE CO2 than 100 years ago. and equal to the rate that humans are emitting which will hit a steady state then. Meaning the amount of CO2 emissions going in will be equal to the rate plants take out. That steady state will last for a few years but as fossil fuel emissions fall, atmospheric CO2 levels will also fall. Then CO2 levels will fall faster and faster and the human race will look on this age of the fake climate crisis and calling CO2 pollution, like we do about the scientifically dumb humans that thought the earth was flat and the sun revolved around the earth.
They were really scientifically uneducated back then. Today, however, ironically it was some of the most educated scientists that perpetrated a hoax, along with crony capitalists, politicians, confused environmental activists and ratings seeking media.
We WILL cherish CO2 as the beneficial gas that it is as famine and starvation strike from falling CO2 and our inability to feed all the people on the planet and the planet becomes LESS green.
On fossil fuels running out:
Re: Will Humanity end in the next 17,000 years??
By metmike - July 3, 2026, 3:06 p.m.
When will fossil fuels run out?
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While this estimate is likely conservative and more fossil fuels reserves will likely be discovered, there is no denying that FOSSIL fuels are FINITE!!!!
Life existed and died on this planet for a finite period of time. Plants consumed CO2 in the atmosphere, animals consumed those plants and made carbon part of their bodies. They were buried, some deeply underground where they became concentrated in large pocket of gas, oil and coal deposits that are NOT being replenished, instead being gradually depleted.
They WILL run out eventually over 8 billion people depleting them at an increasingly impossible to sustain rate.
That is the main reason to develop renewable energy. Because fossil fuels WILL run out. Future generations may need to burn them to keep the beneficial CO2 in the atmosphere from dropping in order to maintain global food production.
All the "saving the planet" from beneficially increasing CO2 sources, should instead be teaching real science/biology and geology.
Telling us the authentic reason to cut back on using finite fossil fuels. It's NOT because of toxic CO2 causing a fake climate crisis but instead, it should be to cut back to save the limited fossil fuels AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, develop the replacement energy sources and energy delivery systems that humans will be depending on in the future when fossil fuels run out............and they will run out.
And they will start running out in the life times of humans living today!
The other thing. When an essential source for existence becomes increasingly scarce, what happens to the price??
Cheap, reliable energy sources are the life blood to every developed countries economies!
We saw what happened to the price of crude when the market dialed in a temporary 20% drop in global production.
When the price doubles, production will go up because it provides financial incentive to producers to bring more (costly) production to the market. In several decades, as CHEAP, easy to get supplies become depleted it will become increasingly costly to generate the HARDER to get supplies.
Even if you are optimistic and double the numbers above(which is possible) there wasn't enough previous life on this planet to result in fossil fuels much beyond that.
Could we actually manufacture hydrocarbons from raw materials and incredible pressure that have the same chemistry/energy as fossil fuels? Technology and ingenuity have no limits, even if fossil fuels are limited.
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On the seasonality of CO2 changes from plants:
https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/carbon-dioxide/
Overall, we continue go up at around 2.5 ppm each year. As the planet continues to green up from more CO2, as it will with 100% certainty form the indisputable, scientific law of photosynthesis, the planet will need more and more CO2. Eventually needing the amount that includes how much we are putting in (which WILL start dropping and keep going lower and lower as fossil fuels run out).
That’s when plants taking out more than goes in will cause global, ambient atmospheric levels to drop. It’s unavoidable.
Thats when the real climate crisis from falling CO2 levels will begin.
I won’t be here to witness that but my grandchildren will!
It will happen during the lifetimes of young people today.
We are told to cut back on CO2 to save the planet for our grandchildren Because there will be too much CO2 in their atmosphere because of us.
How ironic that it’s the diametrically, opposed polar opposite of that reasoning. It’s because we will have EXHAUSTED THE BENEFICIAL CO2 EMISSIONS from using up most of the fossil fuels at such an excessive rate.
Created a booming biosphere and greened up planet with 10 billion mouths that, to be fed requires the elevated, beneficial CO2 levels from burning fossil fuels to sustain itself. To sustain 10 billion people and the massive biosphere From elevated CO2. ..........The amount of CO2 from burning fossil fuels MUST BE AT LEAST MAINTAINED!!!
You can’t rewrite the law of photosynthesis.
For sure we will continue to develop alternative energy source and that MUST be the case because fossil fuels WILL run out. Fossil fuels are finite!!!!
The much more critical problem for our future planet thriving is how will be be able to maintain the needed atmospheric levels of beneficial CO2 that dry up when fossil fuels run out????????
However, how will we replace the needed, beneficial CO2 in the atmosphere that burning fossil fuels is providing right now????
I could literally post 100 articles with junk science like this:
Olsen hypothesized that even with extremely high atmospheric CO2 levels of 6,000 ppm that were recorded during the Age of Dinosaurs and the subsequent global heating, humans could potentially survive — thanks to technological advancements, rather than evolution.
And even though the interior regions of continents would be unbearably hot, places at higher latitudes may still be cool and inhabitable.
However, with high rates of climate change over short periods, Olsen warned that there will be significant social disruptions due to limited food and water resources — resulting in wars and conflicts.
In other words, our species could theoretically survive, but we probably would not be living our best lives.
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6,000 ppm?????
The current level is around 432 ppm and increasing at around 2.5 ppm/year.
The maximum amount of time that we will be increasing CO2 at a rate high enough to sustain that amount of increase is probably 20 more years. There's another 50 ppm to 482 ppm in 2046.
After that, with fossil fuels starting to run out, the rate of increase will begin to drop even as the biosphere is gobbling it up at a new record rate (+10% greater than today because every +5ppm CO2=+1% plant growth and plant demand for CO2).
So plants will be growing 38% faster in 20 years compared to just 28% faster in 2026. As they gobble up the CO2, they remove it from the atmosphere(sequester it).
Within 20 years after that, the rate of emissions dropping from fossil fuels, combined with the biosphere gobbling it up will reach the steady steady by or before 2066, 40 years from now. During those additional 20 year, CO2 could still average +1 ppm/year but falling fast. That would be another 20 ppm, getting us to our peak of around 502 ppm!!!!
Even if that is off by a factor of 2 and the additional increase was 140 ppm, instead of 70 ppm, that still only gets us to 572 ppm in 2066 with fossil fuels running out fast.
If we rounded that off up to 600 ppm, which is the highest conceivable level humans burning fossil fuels will ever cause, that is only 1/10th or 10% of the level they discuss (6,000 ppm) as if it's something we need to think about to prepare to survive for.
Keep in mind again that the optimal level for life is 900 ppm!!!! Our planet has been experiencing CO2 starvation and we aren't even going to get close to fully correcting that!!
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AFTER 2066, when CO2 levels actually drop at an increasing rate.............THEN WHAT?
Plants and crops will be needing 38% more CO2 just to maintain but we will be giving them less and less.
In 40 years, it's possible for the planet to warm another 1+ Deg. C or close to another 2 Deg. F.............before we go the other way from falling CO2 levels.
All these junk science forecasts for how bad it will be in 100 or 200 years assume that CO2 keeps increasing and so does the warming. Then they sell that to the public. Odds are high that CO2 levels in a century will be LESS THAN this current level and rapidly decreasing.
In 200 years, it's almost impossible to believe CO2 levels won't be MUCH lower. That is if you apply authentic science and critical thinking to the rock solid facts.
The main possible factor that could change that is if human technology develops a way to keep the atmospheric level of CO2 from dropping with a process that enriching the atmosphere, like greenhouses do(to elevate CO2 to 1,000 ppm) but on a global scale.
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Another element to this will be the LAG TIME for the earth's biosphere to respond to the falling CO2 levels from fossil fuels running out.
1. Initially, even after a steady state occurs from the total amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere = the total amount coming out, plants/crops will still be responding positively to the higher levels of the beneficial CO2 on the way up for up to X number of years. So even after atmospheric levels of CO2 begin to drop, the planet will continue to green up for a brief, X number of years.
2. However, that additional greening, will actually ADD TO the building DEFICIT in the atmospheric CO2 budget, which will cause an acceleration lower in the drop being caused from both higher demand from plants and lower supplies from less burning of fossil fuels and those emissions falling.
It's not rocket science. Just authentic science, applying irrefutable physical laws and critical thinking using honest facts!
The NOAA Global climate report for June is out. For some reason it's now ahead of the National-
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202606
Ocean temperature set a record, but land was only #4, so overall, #2. Mostly it talks about Europe, which we know. The first week of LeTour was brutal.
Thanks, patrick!
I was surprised that June 2026 was only the 2nd warmest June for Europe, although the heat was focused on Western Europe that had all the record heat late in the month.
Things will only get warmer for the rest of the year with the east tropical Pacific, El Nino region belching out massive amounts of heat into the atmosphere.
Much of the world is close to the warmest ever which is exactly what we would expect with this climate as the indisputable physics of increasing CO2/greenhouse gas slow warming continues..........for at least a couple more decades.
