The way to use these maps below is to just scroll thru them to see the changes with time. Weather markets trade on CHANGES compared to the previous weather forecasts. It also helps to forecast by identifying TRENDS!

The last map in the series ALWAYS gets the most weighting. Compare it with previous maps above it for perspective!

Do consider that as the calendar page turns, rains that just fell will come out of the updated forecast as another day is added at the end of the forecast. A huge rain that just fell(that was in the forecast yesterday) can make the latest forecast look much drier than it really is.

This map is updated 2 times a day, automatically:

5-4-26: Moderate/Heavy rains Ohio/Tennessee Valley's and south of that.  Dry northwest 2\3rds of the Cornbelt which may be the new pattern for May?

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

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Below is the GEFS solution, rain anomalies going out 16 days.

5-3-26:  12z GEFS  

5-4-26:  12z GEFS: Wetter Southeast belt, drier northwest belt(where its bullish)

Below is the European Ensemble model solution. 15 day rain anomalies.

5-3-26: 0z run: Dry Plains to northwest 1/2 of Midwest. 

5-4-26: 12z run: Dry Plains/northwest 1/2 of Midwest. Wet southeast of that.

 Below is the  46 day European Ensemble model, rainfall anomalies:

 5-3-26: Even DRIER west of the Mississippi. Not all guidance agrees but this needs to be watched! Still low confidence right now.

5-4-26: A tad wetter but same pattern of wet Southeast,dry Northwest.

 Below is the  46 day European Ensemble model, temperature/500 mb heights.

 5-3-26:  Heat ridge stronger MID-June. Turning bullish???   Too far out for anything but low confidence.

 5-4-26: This is the heat ridge on June 19th. Possible ring of fire storm pattern from perturbations after they round the top of the heat ridge and track southeast.

GEFS 35 day rain anomaly map +500 mb map Not updated until late evenings.

 5-2-26: Rains shut down Plains to Upper Midwest. Heat ridge builds in 2nd half of May, capping the atmosphere. Early June 500mb map.

5-4-26:  A bit wetter East/South, not as dry Plains(but still dry-ish).

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#                            

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Updated daily below:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

Snapshot below:

NEW LINK:
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions

  National Current Conditions

Drought eliminated in the Midwest but increased in the Plains/Southeast 1/3rd of the country!

       Thru  April 28, 2026

DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Drought gone in the Midwest. Much more rain needed elsewhere. 

This is the upper level pattern in 15 days for the 3 main models.

5-4-26 updates:

Closer alignment today!

1. The GEFS shifts/changes to a trough southwest, Ridge along the Mississippi River. west. Temps heating up.

2. The Canadian model builds the ridge farther west, from the Rockies to the PLAINS with a lingering chilly trough in the Northeast. 

3. The European Model has modest ridging in the center of the country with the trough in the Northeast lifting out compared to yesterday.  

GEFS:

Canadian model:

European model: