KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, August 25, 2023
10:00 AM ET. August University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 71.2; previous 71.6)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 68.3)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.4%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 76.6)
Monday, August 28, 2023
10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -20.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous -4.8)
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +1.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.0%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous -1.7%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous -0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.0)
Expectation Idx (previous 88.3)
Present Situation Idx (previous 160)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday despite strong earning from Nvidia which could not overcome comments from the Federal Reserve suggesting interest rates will need to remain elevated for a long period of time to bring inflation down. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extend the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,000.23 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 34,658.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 35,000.23. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 34,062.26. Second support is the July 10th low crossing at 33,705.68.
The September NASDAQ 100 posted a key reversal down and closed sharply lower on Thursday as Feb warns that interest rate cuts are not coming in the near-future. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,334.92 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15,334.92. Second resistance is the July 19th high crossing at 16,062.75. First support is the June 8th low crossing at 14,125.00. Second support is 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 14,117.27.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday as Fed's bearish new on interest rate cuts triggered a sell off into the close. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4487.96 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4487.96. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 4634.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4344.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 4254.86.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 119-26.
September T-bonds closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally off monthly support crossing at 117-19. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120-31. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 123-22. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 117-18. Second support is the February-2011 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 116-26.
September T-notes closed down 95-pts. at 109.195.
September T-notes closed lower on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.107 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.107. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.171. First support is the October-2022 low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 1980-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 104.113.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
October crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August high, the 38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $81.75. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $84.16. First support is the38% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $76.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.22.
October heating oil closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0529 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 3.1928. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 3.2100. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0529. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at 2.9174.
October unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847 is the next downside target. If October renews the rally off June's low, the October-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3.0221 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.6063. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 2.7209. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at 2.4847. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4257.
October Henry natural gas posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off the August 9th high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the aforementioned decline, the June 1st low crossing at 2.377 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.753 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.753. Second resistance is the August 9th high crossing at 3.096. First support is today's low crossing at 2.529. Second support is the June 1st low crossing at 2.377.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar posted an outside day up on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 104.205 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.670 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 103.935. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 104.205. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.670. Second support is the August 10th low crossing at 101.600.
The September Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 12th low crossing at 1.07920 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.10118 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.09502. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.10118. First support is the June 12th low crossing at $1.07920. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.07025.
The September British Pound closed lower on Thursday and below trading range support crossing at 1.2615 marking a potential downside breakout of August's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off July's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 1.2508 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2796 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2796. Second resistance is the July 27th high crossing at 1.2999. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2615. Second support is the June 29th low crossing at 1.2594.
The September Swiss Franc closed sharply lower on Thursday as it posted a downside breakout of the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14473 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14473. Second resistance is the July 18th high crossing at 1.17650. First support is today's low crossing at 1.13230. Second support is the June 30th low crossing at 1.11790.
The September Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.48. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.49. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-July rally crossing at 73.02.
The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off the July 14th high, the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069730 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069730. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070770. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.068545. Second support is the October-2022 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.066235.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
December gold closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1953.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extended the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1953.30. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1973.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1913.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at $1870.30.
September silver closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the July 31st high crossing at 24.985 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.146 would signal a likely end to the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.146 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 24.985. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 25.475. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 23.146. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023-rally crossing at 22.450.
September copper closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8172 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August's high, May's low crossing at 3.5650 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8172. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4.0240. First support is August's low crossing at 3.6270. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.5650.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.02 1/4-cents at $4.88 1/4.
December corn closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $4.85 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.22 1/2. First support is the September-2021 low on the weekly chart crossing at $4.62 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $4.50 1/2.
December wheat closed down $0.08-cents at $6.31 3/4.
December wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.54 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.54 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.86 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.12. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.08 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.01 1/4-cents at $7.62 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below May's low crossing at $7.36 would mark a downside breakout of the December-August trading range. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.15 1/2. First support is May's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is the December-2021 low crossing at $7.29 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.04-cents crossing at $7.99 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.31 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $8.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.31. First support is the May 31st low crossing at $7.85 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.80 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $13.71 3/4.
November soybeans closed higher on Thursday as scorching heat across large portions of the Midwest continues to cut into bean yields. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $14.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.32 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $13.81. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $14.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.32 3/4. Second support is the August 8th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $11.30 at $412.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at $424.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $391.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $391.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $413.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $424.70. First support the 10-day moving average crossing at $391.80. Second support is August's low crossing at $379.00.
December soybean oil closed down 79 pts. at 62.18.
December soybean oil closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, last-October's high crossing at 66.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 65.39. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 66.44. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 60.08. Second support is August's low crossing at 57.86.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $2.10 at $80.65.
October hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.78 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the June 6th low crossing at $74.03 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $82.48. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $86.75. First support is the June 30th low crossing at $77.58. Second support is the June 8th low crossing at $74.03.
October cattle closed up $2.18 at $178.68.
October cattle closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. If October extends the decline off July's high, the July 6th low crossing at $176.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $183.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $185.75. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $176.20. Second support is the June 21st low crossing at $171.83.
October Feeder cattle closed up $2.40 at $253.28.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday as it extends the July-August trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the July 6th low crossing at $246.03 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is August's high crossing at $256.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $248.05. Second support is the July 6th low crossing at $246.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.72 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the January low crossing at $14.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.72. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.07. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $14.72. Second support is the January low crossing at $14.49.
December cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 32.63 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 35.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October renews the rally off June's low, July's high crossing at 25.30 is the next upside target. If October extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 21.88 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 88.83 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, the August 3rd low crossing at 83.25 is the next downside target.
Thanks much, tallpine!
Pro Farmer thread:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/reply_post/98533/
The weather continues bullish.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
2 big questions:
1. What will Pro Farmer's final comments/estimate be on Friday at 1:30pm just after the close?
2. How much will crop ratings drop next Monday? And the following Monday?