KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Thursday, July 20, 2023 

8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

                       Business Activity (expected -10.0; previous -13.7)

                       Prices Paid (previous 10.5)

                       Employment (previous -0.4)

                       New Orders (previous -11.0)

                       Prices Received (previous 0.1)

                       Delivery Times (previous -16.1)

                       Inventories (previous -3.5)

                       Shipments (previous 9.9)

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

                       Jobless Claims (expected 240K; previous 237K)

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1729000)

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +11K)

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales

                       Existing Sales (expected 4.20M; previous 4.30M)

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous +0.2%)

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.0)

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 396100)

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous -3.1%)

10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.6%; previous -0.7%)

                       Leading Index

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2930B)

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +49B)

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the April-2022 high crossing at 35,492.22 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,205.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the April - 2022 high crossing at 35,492.22. Second resistance is the February-2022 high crossing at 35,824.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 34,205.05. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33,789.56.  

The September NASDAQ 100 closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extended this year's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. If September extends this year's rally, the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,354.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 16,062.75. Second resistance is the December-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 16,659.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15,551.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15,354.51.  

The September S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off March's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4473.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4609.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022 decline on the weekly chart crossing at 4639.07. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4513.12. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4473.00.      

INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""

September T-bonds closed up 26/32's at 127-19. 

September T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 127-14. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 128-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 128-21. Second resistance is the June high crossing at 129-16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 125-20. Second support is July's low crossing at 122-30. 

September T-notes closed up 60-pts. at 112.300.

September T-notes closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 6^th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.177 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.000 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.177. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 115.000. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.000. Second support is July's low crossing at 110.050. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

August crude oil closed lower on Wednesday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $77.33. Second resistance is the the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $77.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.33. Second support is the June 12^thlow crossing at $66.96.   

September heating oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.7273 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4904 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.6681. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 2.7273. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4904. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4174.    

September unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the June 23^rd low, the June-2022 high crossing at 2.8215 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4880 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.6898. Second resistance is the June-2022 high crossing at 2.8215. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.5674. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.4880.

September Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.658 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193 is the next upside target.First resistance is the June high crossing at 2.911. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.193. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2.477. Second support is the June 1^st low crossing at 2.249. 

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, weekly support on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 97.730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.587 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 100.626. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 101.587. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 99.220. Second support is weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 97.730.   

The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought bur remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the March 30^th high crossing at 1.15190 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10554 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1.13105. Second resistance is the March 30^th high crossing at 1.15190. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.11484. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.10554. 

The September British Pound closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2839 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.3146. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 1.3253. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2839. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2657.    

The September Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14075 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.17535. Second resistance is the January 2019 high crossing at 1.18680. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.15597. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.14075. 

The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off the January 7^th low, the September 12^th 2022 high crossing at 77.11 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the September 12^th high crossing at 77.11. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.07.    

The September Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071268 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.073585. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 0.074017 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071268. Second support is June's low crossing at 0.069755.   

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

August gold posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $2000.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1940.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2000.70. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $2102.20. First support is June's low crossing at $1911.40. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $1892.30.  

September silver closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.988 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 25.460. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 25.561. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.988. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.637.  

September copper closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7850 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this month's rally, June's high crossing at 3.9640 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 3.9640. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.0100. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.7850. Second support is June's low crossing at 3.6600.  

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

December Corn closed up $0.18 1/2-cents at $5.53. 

December corn closed sharply higher for the second day in a row on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low.  The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.09 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.55 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $5.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.09 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at $4.81.  

September wheat closed up $0.57-cents at $7.27 3/4.  

September wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 29^th high crossing at $7.46. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.70 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.57. Second support is July's low crossing at $6.22.   

September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.39 1/2-cents at $8.66 3/4.

September Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the June 22^nd high crossing at $8.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 22^nd high crossing at $8.89 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.02. First support is the July 12^th low crossing at $7.92. Second support is the July 3^rd low crossing at $7.87 1/4. 

September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.19 3/4-cents crossing at $8.97 1/4.

September Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.18 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $9.60 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.57 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.38 1/2.     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

November soybeans closed up $0.13 1/2-cents at $14.08 3/4.

November soybeans closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off May's low, the April-2022 high crossing at $14.48 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.41 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $14.07 1/2. Second resistance is the April-2022 high crossing at $14.48 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.41 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $12.65.  

December soybean meal closed down $1.30 at $411.90. 

December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off the late-June low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $398.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $418.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $428.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $398.70. Second support is the July 7^th low crossing at $384.70.   

December soybean oil closed up 166-pts. at 61.44. 

December soybean oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 61.68 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 61.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 65.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.40. Second support is the June 29^th low crossing at 54.67. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

August hogs closed up $1.88 at $98.15. 

August hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $100.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $104.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $94.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.22.    

August cattle closed up $0.13 at $181.40. 

August cattle closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $181.88. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $175.82. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $170.72. 

August Feeder cattle closed down $1.43 at $246.58. 

August Feeder cattle gapped down and closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $242.52 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $251.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $242.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $237.89.  

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

September coffee closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.12. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.38. First support is Monday's low crossing at $15.51. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at $15.20. 

September cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it posted a new high for the year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 37.75 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 32.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.        

October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.  

December cotton closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off June's low, May's high crossing at 84.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.