This is where the crop condition rating will drop on Monday:
Based on the maps below, the crop ratings will most likely have a small drop in NE, w.IA, IN, MO, TX, OK, AR, LA, TN, KY, MS, possibly AL, GE, NC, SC, OH and s.MN.
TX/OK/MO and points eastward will have the biggest drops with no rain and temperatures 3-8 deg. F above average during the last 2 weeks(most of that heat was the week before this last one which is what accelerated the drying)
Rains the last 7 days below:
Rains the last 14 days below:
Rains the last 30 days below:
Add in this heat, along with the dry weather and the soils have dried quickly, with flash drought in some spots.
Temperatures the last 7 days below:
Temperatures the last 14 days below:
Temperatures the last 30 days below:
These are the places that have developed significant dryness:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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June 23 , 2022-update
U.S. Drought Monitor
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Previous week, June 16, 2022 release below:
Latest map below, June 23......DROUGHT EXPANSION!
This is the forecast:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ | |||||||||
6 to 10 day outlooks | |||||||||
Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps Temperature Precipitation | |||||||||
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |||||||||
Temperature Probability | |||||||||
Precipitation Probability | |||||||||
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2 week rain totals from the just out 18z GFS ensemble mean.
Light blue is 2 inches. There will be decent heat that evaporates a bit more than usual.
Production for corn, then beans below:
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/cr-pr.php
https://ctgpublishing.com/united-states-corn-production/
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Production for Soybeans below
https://ctgpublishing.com/united-states-soybean-production/
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/sb-pr.php
Another good look at it, dialing in the actual crop we have in the ground right now!
https://www.agweb.com/markets/market-outlooks/2022-planted-acres-corn-down-4-soybeans-4
Crop rating dropped almost exactly as expected above(the market expected no change):
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2722.txt
Conditions for U.S. #corn, #soybeans, #cotton & #sorghum all dropped 3 pts on the week, spring #wheat steady. Corn and beans are beginning reproductive phases. Winter wheat is 41% harvested, ahead of last year's pace.
See the latest weather here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#86476
Rains should be picking up at the end of this week and could be fairly active next week with a northwest type flow regime.
Perturbations coming around/over the top of the heat ridge farther south, triggering clusters of showers/t-showers that are a day or so spaced out time wise.
Some of the perturbation energy may be coming from the northern stream, some may be coming from the Southwest Monsoon flow surging from the Southwest and circling/tracing out the periphery of the heat ridge.
Also, there is a Pacific stream in between that looks to potentially have some perturbations/waves which ride over the top of the heat ridge.
This is why the NWS has had above average rain in the extended guidance all week. That period is moving up to just 2 days from now.
This will be in addition to a front that moves back and forth in this same area.
Crop ratings will be dropping again next Monday. Since we've had almost no rain the last several days, for sure they would drop.
In areas that get rains this weekend, they will improve a bit but some of that might now make the report for Monday.
In July/August, it's actually pretty normal for crop ratings to drop 1-2% on many weekly reports.