What a wonderful gift to MarketForum Tim!

thanks so much.

tied up today a bit with my wifes new carbon capture business and am managing a tick disease but will comment more later….thanks

Considering the plummeting value of our purchasing power, I would think that it's taking a serious toll on the real economy already.

Increasing interest rates means the interest on the astronomical debt is going to crush us!

How Would Higher Interest Rates Affect Interest Payments?

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/how-would-higher-interest-rates-affect-interest-payments

• If interest rates are 200 basis points (2.0 percentage points) higher, average annual interest costs would increase by $375 billion. Interest payments would total $9.2 trillion over the FY 2022 to 2031 period, and federal deficits would increase (with revenue effects) by $418 billion per year. 
• Interest rates that are two percentage points above CBO's forecast could push debt as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up to a record 120 percent by FY 2031 and increase ten-year budget deficits by up to $4.2 trillion. 

Higher Interest Rates Would Further Increase Interest Costs

At 1.9 percent, the average interest rate on ten-year Treasury notes is slightly above the 1.8 percent CBO projected it would be this quarter. While interest rate projections are highly uncertain, should they continue to outperform CBO’s forecast, the result will be more debt and more spending needed to service that debt. 

metmike: The US has been using (abusing) money with blatant, fiscal irresponsibility  like they are playing monopoly with made up rules that let them print new money and  manufacture ways to avoid having to reconcile with realities that control most realms using money. 

People insisting that this can't go on forever, have been saying it for a very long time. Long enough, with it continuing to go on the same way anyways, that the markets are convinced that it really can go on forever. 

NO IT CAN'T!

The huge problem is that when that time finally comes (and it will)  that proves it couldn't go on forever..........we won't be able to  adjust our way out by tweaking a few things here and there to have a soft landing or effectively spread out of the pain. 

When it happens, there could be collapses from the imbalances building up with time to unsustainable levels that can't last.

Like all bubbles, the popping results in restoring a healthier situation at levels that make much more sense based on reality.

Just 1 discussion on it(it's not just the US)

The global economy is a giant bubble that could pop

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-global-economy-is-a-giant-bubble-that-could-pop/

Absoutely no question that our biggest single issue is inflation.

Agree Tim!

The problem is that to address inflation this extreme, in this case, we have to do some pretty extreme things to curb excessive demand causing it.........which always slows down the economy.

but it doesn’t always need to be an excessive demand issue!

in this case we also have severe supply issues causing much of the problems, especially in energy (which affects the price of everything because EVERYTHING has transportation costs). 

So if you stifle demand so that it doesn't exceed the limited supply........you kill economic growth and cause a recession.

The best solution would be to encourage massive supplies, especially in the fossil fuel sector which also increases growth of the economy at the same time. 

That increase, which always happens has had an unusually slow response and long lag time because the war on fossil fuels the past decade has caused the big money to go to fake green energy plays(solar and especially really bad wind) that are getting all the government support and grant money as well as tax breaks.

With carbon tax  penalties and new strict regulations promises right around the corner, they already just about killed coal and have started targeting ng.

This HAD to happen based on the plan to replace fossil fuels. I've been saying this for a decade because it was so obvious. The war on fossil fuels is causing many of these problems with a promise that green fairy dust and magic will somehow replace a wonderful, cheap, abundant and reliable fuel and system set up to conveniently and effectively bring it to the market quickly to satisfy unlimited demand.

  Killing Coal            

                            14 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Nov. 21, 2021, 10:57 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/78168/

This is what got it started and it was absolutely INTENTIONAL!

Obama KNEW this would happen to prices, so did others.

I may be a fairly smart scientist from Indiana but there is no way that all these things could be crystal clear to me for over a decade and these gatekeepers IN THE KNOW AND FORCING THIS ON THE WORLD were somehow oblivious. 

President Obama Wants Higher Energy Prices

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma1gwZYw1cY

Biden didn't start it but he is carrying the baton. After a brief suspension in the plan to kill fossil fuels for 4 years(Europe continued with the plan though), Biden, on day 1 signed us back up with the fake climate crisis Accord, stopped the Key Stone pipe line to help with his war on oil and began aggressive  legislation to kill natural gas.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/84294/#84357

Why hasn't the obvious been so obvious, so that we could have avoided this?

Because the messages and false narratives  have all been "Fossil fuels are killing the planet and the only way to save the planet is to kill fossil fuels"

Under this guise, they were able to trick people into thinking the current climate optimum for life on this greening planet is actually..........a climate crisis and the only way to save the earth is to get rid of fossil fuels.

Slight global warming is for real but the benefits outweigh the negatives......which has already been shown on the NTR forum dozens of times.

The ESG Community Lacks an Understanding of What Crude Oil is Used For

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/17/the-esg-community-lacks-an-understanding-of-what-crude-oil-is-used-for/

Unintended consequences of the ESG rage ridding the world of crude oil usage would be the restricted supply and resultant inflationary pressures on the limited supply of products and fuels manufactured from crude to meet growing demands that support:

• Asphalt for roughly sixty-five million miles of roads in the world.
• Tires for the 1.4 billion vehicles in the world.
• Fertilizers to feed the eight billion in this world on an increasingly resource-stretched and crowded earth.
• Medical supplies that are primarily made from oil derivatives.
• Jets that comprise more than 50,000 aircraft for military, commercial, private and the President’s Air Force One.
• Merchant ships that comprise more than 53,000 vessels that move products throughout the world.
• Vehicles that are mostly made of plastics.
• Renewable components of wind turbines and solar panels that are made from oil derivatives.

The domino effects of tinkering with the supply chain of fossil fuels are supply shortages and soaring prices for the consumers, for not only electricity, but for the thousands of products that support the entire medical industry, all branches of the military, airports, electronics, communications, merchant ships, container ships and cruise liners, as well as asphalt for roads, and fertilizers to help feed the world.

                Life without petroleum-based products            

started by metmike - May 21, 2022, 10:46 p.m.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/84689/