Cognitive biases
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Started by metmike - April 24, 2022, 11:34 a.m.
By metmike - April 24, 2022, 11:36 a.m.
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The Cognitive Bias That Destroys Your Ability to Correctly Predict the Future

The future may look familiar, but that's probably an illusion.

List of cognitive biases:

metmike: Just part of the hundreds of human cognitive biases. Scan thru the list below. If you can't find at least a dozen that apply to you, then.....either you are in denial..........or you are a robot, not human (-:

Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from norm and/or rationality in judgment. They are often studied in psychology, sociology and behavioral economics.[1]

Although the reality of most of these biases is confirmed by reproducible research,[2][3] there are often controversies about how to classify these biases or how to explain them.[4] Several theoretical causes are known for some cognitive biases, which provides a classification of biases by their common generative mechanism (such as noisy information-processing[5]). Gerd Gigerenzer has criticized the framing of cognitive biases as errors in judgment, and favors interpreting them as arising from rational deviations from logical thought.[6]

Explanations include information-processing rules (i.e., mental shortcuts), called heuristics, that the brain uses to produce decisions or judgments. Biases have a variety of forms and appear as cognitive ("cold") bias, such as mental noise,[5] or motivational ("hot") bias, such as when beliefs are distorted by wishful thinking. Both effects can be present at the same time


By metmike - April 24, 2022, 11:58 a.m.
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There's another key element to seasonal patterns.


When you have a fairly reliable seasonal pattern for many years, thousands of traders will EXPECT/ANTICIPATE it and their actions, based on those expectations will reinforce it and sometimes, even cause it!

This also applies to technical trading.


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By metmike - April 24, 2022, noon
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Interesting, numerous connections related to many human cognitive biases when it comes to the fake climate crisis.

This is one very few people  consider:

Plant blindness is an informally-proposed form of cognitive bias, which in its broadest meaning, is a human tendency to ignore plant species. This includes such phenomena as not noticing plants in the surrounding environment, not recognizing the importance of plant life to the whole biosphere and to human affairs, a philosophical view of plants as an inferior form of life to animals and/or the inability to appreciate the unique features or aesthetics of plants.[1] Related terms include plant‐neglect,[2]zoo-centrism,[3] and zoo‐chauvinism.[2]


Just part of the hundreds of human cognitive biases. Scan thru the list below. If you can't find at least a dozen that apply to you, then.....either you are in denial..........or you are a robot, not human (-:

By metmike - April 24, 2022, 12:02 p.m.
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Re: Re: Re: Re: CNN plus

List of cognitive biases:

  • Objectivity illusion, the phenomena where people tend to believe that they are more objective and unbiased than others. This bias can apply to itself - where people are able to see when others are affected by the objectivity illusion, but unable to see it in themselves. See also bias blind spot[80]
By MarkB - April 25, 2022, 10:15 a.m.
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I've reached the conclusion that everyone is crazy, except me and thee. An I'm beginning to wonder about thee.  ;-)

By metmike - April 25, 2022, 11:37 a.m.
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Everyone around me has known that I was crazy since I was a kid! 

Up until I was an older teenager, I would actually be able to see things that I thought about in my head in front of me. Not just imagine them but see them as clearly as the REAL objects. In the dark, when the REAL objects were not lit up, the imagined objects were vivid. 

This not only led to some horrible nightmares but when my parents would come to the room at night, after listening to me screaming, I would be wide awake and vividly describing these images that were in the room at that moment.

I also would not be able to sleep on many nights because of a racing brain and would get up and go out of the house and walk around in the neighborhood. After the 2nd call from a neighbor at 4am that reported that I was in the backyard playing with his dog, my parents had to lock me in my room at 5 years old!

Fortunately, I finally learned how to channel it in a positive direction.

Mom, had severe manic-depression. 

I got her brain but adopted Dad's wonderful make the world a better place philosophy and positive examples, with enough acquired knowledge in clinical pharmacology to self treat and am mostly manic-manic!

I consider myself a person that will always NOT know MUCH more than I know but has a desire to maximize learning and most of all share the joy/benefits of learning with others here.

You can tell by my extremely long analytical posting.

By metmike - April 25, 2022, 11:38 a.m.
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The Surprising Benefits of Being (Slightly) Crazy

By metmike - April 25, 2022, 11:45 a.m.
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Here's another one related to the Ukrainian crisis. 

I have a brother that lives in Prague that is helping Ukrainians relocate and he's been relaying stories about displaced INDIVIDUAL Ukrainians that he's met.


Compassion fade, the tendency to behave more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable victims than to a large number of anonymous ones.[47]

From this main source:

By MarkB - April 26, 2022, 1:17 a.m.
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My post comes from back in my teen years. Long time ago. When it was meant to cast a humorous approach to a truth. We each have our talents, strange as they may seem to others.

By metmike - April 26, 2022, 12:40 p.m.
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I agree Mark!

Everybody should be appreciated for their unique talents, even if society does not place great value on them and even more so, everybody should be respected as human beings, regardless of the level of the God given talents/attributes they were born with.

In that same vein, those blessed with unusual talents/achievements, whether they had them from blessed genetics or whether they worked their butts off to acquire them(work ethic mentality is a gift)............owe it to the rest of the world to generously share them!

Failing to do so, is wasting the biggest opportunity of all, by a wide margin to use them. 

By metmike - June 9, 2022, 11:33 a.m.
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