Looks like we are still hot and dry in Southern SA. Beans are off and running tonight.
Why start a new thread for South America? The other didn't even have 100 posts and maps yet (-:
Just kidding. Thanks!
Here's the old one:
South America crops/weather October/November/Dec
76 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 5, 2021, 10:03 p.m.
Crop calendar for Argentina:
#Argentina's #soybeans are most concentrated in Cordoba, Santa Fe & Buenos Aires. The 2020/21 crop is pegged @ ~50 mln tonnes (1.84 bln bu). That is roughly the estimated 2020 crop of the U.S. I-states plus Minnesota. Speaking of, they fit quite nicely in Argentina's grain belt.
Crop calendar for Brazil
Argentina and S.Brazil have been extremely dry the last 3 months!
30 day precip % of average:
Precip % average the last 90 days below
This data comes from the GFS/US model.
It's constantly updated every 12 hours.
Bone dry Argentina and S.Brazil could really use MORE THAN 2+ inches of rain the next 2 weeks which would just be the average amount. This coincides with the light blue shade below.
They will be getting only around half that amount with more heat.
Soybeans are following weather not seasonals right now.
I started a new thread because the scrolling to the bottom of the page was becoming similar to when I have to scroll down to my birth year. :)
Yes Jim. I completely agree and was making a joke because it was long overdue and thanks again!
Forecast has not changed. I found some wonderful links that show enhanced satellite and radar loops/images of Argentina and S.Brazil. Exactly the areas that are bone dry right now!
Here are some other links:
https://satelite.inmet.gov.br/CO (go to AS-all of South America)
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=-34.56999969&lon=-58.41999817&zoom=8&pin=Buenos%20Aires,%20Argentina&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=1&sat.num=1&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=108&sat.type=IR4&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0 (check the satellite box and scroll)
https://www.theweather.com/satellites/argentina-ar.html (choose infrared)
Eric Snodgrass Sa weather 1-3-22
Thanks much cutworm!
Eric is the best!
Looks like SA weather is a tale of two extremes
Some are so wet, dams are bursting
Some are so dry crop ratings are falling during pollination and grain fill
Can SA repeat two yrs in a row with crop problems
You would think some where between the wet and dry places, some body is having good growing conditions
I wonder how much is grown with good growing conditions
Going to be the worst crop yields in decades for Argentina and S.Brazil, unless the pattern changes drastically later this month and even then, perfect weather will not get them anything close to trendline. The crops there will be permanently, severely damaged with very high confidence and not able to come back.
There are signs of better rains in 2 weeks but thats a long way off.
This is the forecast the next 10 days below. Almost NO rain in Argentina to the farthest south state of Brazil.
We should see some new contract highs, very soon.
Thanks much Jim,
There is actually one change. The pattern starts bringing in much more rain towards the end of 2 weeks, especially to S.Brazil. All the rains in far S.Brazil and Argentina are after day 11 on this just updated 18z GFS Ensemble. Hot and dry until then which is going to add to the already major damage.
That will help settle the dust.
As mentioned yesterday, there is a big change to much wetter, now after day 10(mainly kicking in on day 11). It really starts dousing S.Brazil dry spots and looks to keep increasing rains in Argentina too.
Below are the total rains thru 10 days followed by the total rains after 16 days. Huge increase at the end of the period....which looks to define a new, much wetter pattern!
Rain amounts going up in week 2 in S.Brazil/Argentina
Rain amounts continue to go up for, especially bone dry S.Brazil...........but it's ALL after 10 days, a period with low skill. Hot and dry until then. However, if the forecast verifies and these rains move up to week 1 rains, the bean market, starting next week will start crashing lower.
If they get taken out of the forecast we have lots of upside still.
Ahh, the beauty of a weather market. Stopped out of my short when I was only 4 cents away from breakeven yesterday.
Does today mark the peak of price and NEWS? Or will it be Sunday night 20 cents higher?
Great question tjc..........depends on the weather models to some extent.
If the rains get even closer and we add even more...........probably today is the high.
If we take rain out and move it farther out...........probably not.
Friday markets do especially well based on speculation of the worst and skeptism of the best/better.
I've been bitten many times from being in the bullish camp, especially earlier in my trading career and keeping the position after the close on Friday.
I wouldn't want to be short beans unless the market it convinced big rains are coming.
And parabolic markets like this almost always have extreme spikes higher that make it IMPOSSIBLE to pick the exact top without having a huge drawdown or loss.
I had an order in to buy a weekly put, entered near the high of day. Market then began to slip from 1413. Did not get fill and would not chase.
No doubt 20-30 lower open.
Been a verey tough trading market all week in many commodities. A lot of wipsaw.
Beans opened lower then spike down almost another 10c lower, than came back up to just above the open and are in the middle of the range right now, just above $14.
The GFS has continued with the huge pattern change and much wetter weather. Each day has been getting one day closer. Now, we are less than 8 days away. No rain and hot before then. All the rains on the map below are week 2 rains. However, tomorrow, they will be entering the end of the week 1 forecast.......just checked and actually they already start late week 1 on some models.
We now have 2"+ everywhere in Brazil and some spots at 3". Argentina amounts are a bit less than that in the southern growing areas but their very long lived hot/dry weather is more favorable in week 2 also.
Thanks for the weather update! It's going to be a fun week!
USDA report out on Wednesday to make it even more interesting. However, the report will not incorporate much of the massive damage and production cuts that have already happened to the Brazil and Argentina crops.
On the weather, we had the most bullish weather possible for the next 6 days with very high confidence but for sure well known for a week.
Then big rains, starting around late day 7 with increasingly higher confidence as the rains have gotten 1 day closer for 7 straight days.
There is no way, that on Friday, if the rains are just 2-3 days away and look like this, that we will not have already hit our top.
It's possible that the damage from the current weather pattern is much worse than the market has been trading, however. News of that could still be supportive early this week but with this weather forecast, I personally am only looking at the short side with this weather set up.
The change to more favorable weather in the dry spots is only going to stop the damage. It's too late to bring back the crop to anything in the vicinity of being close to trendline yields.
Rains continue to get closer(now just over 6 days away) and increase. Beans spiked to 1409 just before 6am with that being the case.........then were under pressure the rest of the session. Tough to trade and stay short without being willing to withstand a drawdown because of being a bit early with the short.
Conab's forecast was higher than had been expected.
The report out of Brazil today is applying pressure to soybean futures this morning, with soybean production lower than the previous month but still higher than this point last year. In its report, Brazilian crop agency Conab said that Brazilian farmers will produce 140.5 million metric tons of soybeans this season. In December, the agency forecast a crop of 142.8 million tons, and produced 137.3 million tons of soybeans in 2020-2021. "The forecast for Argentina and Southern Brazil isn't quite as wet this morning, but the Conab production reduction wasn't as aggressive as some of the private estimates have been running," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives. Soybean futures are down 0.5% in trading Tuesday morning.
That report misses much of the damage from the drought.
3 inches of rain on the way, the next 2 weeks (some spots more) on the GFS ensemble, which has been showing this pattern change for a week now and it just keeps getting 1 day closer with each passing day. Now around 4 days away before the rains commence.
True enough Mike, but what was it that Dave Brew used to say....those are the numbers we have been given? I think the coming rains will give us a nice retracement. At least I would like to think so.
For sure Jim!
Market seems to believe rain IS coming. For me, nice healthy retreat today. I suspect more to come. Seasonal not favorable for several weeks.
Here's the last 12z GFS ensemble. Rains the next 2 weeks. 3 inches in many dry spots. 2+ everywhere. Rains start on day 3 now.
Even more rain on the last 18z run!
Rained out Beans in Brazil Video
Thanks hayman, Still huge, major drought denting rains coming to S.Brazil/Argentina. 3-6 inches the next 2 weeks. There's already major damage but this will stop it.
Huge gap lower in the beans coming!
Here's some great links to monitor rains in South America:
The upcoming rains will make a huge dent in the drought in Argentina and help in S.Brazil but there has been massive permanent damage to the crops in those areas from weeks of no rain and bouts of intense heat...that no amount of rain can bring back!
I could see how some of Brazil’s crop could be permanently damaged, but is all of Argentina soy crop even in yet? Or just in? We have talked about this quite a few times, the resiliency of soy and if Argentina is finally getting rain, it hardly seems like the time to write off their crop.
One reason for the huge bean rally is that we took out a ton of rain in the forecast for far northern Argentina and southern Brazil currently in severe drought. I actually missed that yesterday. This is especially obvious in the week 1 forecast.
No precip for the Plains WW crop that has drought is also bullish today.
This is week 1 below, then the 2 week totals below that:
Big increase in rains again for some dry areas of SA compared to 24 hours ago in the forecast. That increase plays out, mostly after day 5..........so it will keep changing.
The same to a bit more rain in S. Brazil but MUCH less rain in Argentina compared to Friday.
Pretty big 2 week rains in SA on latest 12z GFS. Much of the damage is done though. If this were a month ago, it would be incredibly bearish.
Are you a bear or a bull? Traders know the crop is damaged, Conab called 131 mmts a couple weeks ago, so despite the USDA numbers, that info is sitting in the back of traders minds. Exports are pedestrian.
$14 is pretty pricey.
I usually take my cue off of the weather FORECAST....which is pretty bearish for Brazil and about neutral for Argentina. But I know how extremely bullish the weather was the past month+ and am concerned about that resulting in updated crop estimates being lower. Agree that $14 is a pretty high price and probably most of that damage is dialed in.
Links to monitor current rains in SA:
Last forecast for 2 week totals. A bit bullish for Argentina and very far S.Brazil.
The forecast has turned much drier again! Especiallyh for all of Argentina and far S. Brazil.
GFS continues to have not enough rain in the drought areas which already have enormous damage.
Weekend Grain comment
Started by bcb - Jan. 29, 2022, 9:32 a.m.
Is it me or are the weather maps for Argentina drier today than they were yesterday?
They've been drier almost every day for the past week in Argentina. That's why bean have shot up. A tad drier again overnight.
I thought we were going to hit limit up there for a couple minutes! I saw some firms are coming out with estimates in the low 120 mmt range.
The damage for those estimates was done earlier this month. This just makes it worse.
Off the wire
Soybean futures are leading the CBOT higher, with the most-active contract up 3% this afternoon. The main mover for the soybean contract today is a tighter view of production coming out of South America. "Traders are doing the math on lost South American production, estimating the export demand coming back to the US," says Craig Turner of Daniels Trading. "Some might think we could be close to pipeline minimums." The USDA's monthly WASDE report, due out next Wednesday, will provide some further clarity as to what world production will look like for soybeans
Thanks Jim! Same forecast. Up here, no telling what might happen to prices.
Personally, I think grains have reached a new normal. I see no reason for the next couple years for beans to fall out of the teens. I don't think $20 is unreasonable.
Not much different forecast. Up here...........anything can happen to price. Most of the market already knows there's extreme damage and we may not have much fresh buying but instead, have shorts under water and panic buying/crying uncle.
As a counter point, why would you sell? The risk is definitely to the short traders. If the US doesn't get off to a good growing season, who knows where this could go. They're already talking pipeline supply levels. We haven't heard the words "price rationing" yet. We have a ways to go.
most models in complete agreement for Feb 5 thru feb 16th hot and dry
More hot and dry can still do more damage and be even more bullish still but anything can happen to prices up here. If you're a producer in the US, regardless of increasing input costs, the market should offer some wonderful opportunites to make a profit this year. There won't be enough new crop supply to take the bean market off record low global supplies until the US harvest.
When a market like this gets into a serious rationing mode and commercials or other buyers start a bidding war on limited supplies...........$20+ is very possible.
Rains pick up a bit in the drought areas..... AFTER day 10.
GFS ensemble thru day 10 below, then thru day 15 below that.
Thanks very much Jim!
Same weather pattern........bullish.
1st map is the first 9 days. Then rains pick up.
2nd map is rain totals for 15 days on 12z GFS ensemble mean
Thanks Jim! Crude back up is helping.
Big rains are coming in week 2, similar to the big rains that came in late January that caused the beans to sell off and kept the crop alive.....before it turned hot/dry again.
However, rains at the end of February will be too late to help much but they could also be why beans topped at the end of last week.
These are ALL week 2 rains below on the GFS ensemble rain totals.
Looks like there were other reasons for the rally in beans. Looks like it might be a shorting opportunity.
Soy Shut Down: The surge seen in futures for soybeans as well as soymeal and soyoil can be attributed to a fire that shut down an Indiana soybean processing plant, said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. Major trading house Louis Dreyfus confirmed Wednesday that a fire broke out in a baghouse at their Claypool, Indiana plant Tuesday night. "Operations of the impacted system at the site have been suspended and we will continue to assess the situation and conduct a thorough investigation," the company said. The plant is their largest soybean processing plant and also produces biodiesel
Big rains getting 1 day closer each day. Probably too late to help much in severe drought stricken areas of Argentina and S. Brazil.
1. Rain totals for the next 4 days on map 1 for the latest 18z GFS ensemble
2. Rain totals for the next 15 days!