1/ #Argentina: Showers provided timely moisture for winter grains in Buenos Aires, while heavier rain fell in the northeastern #cotton belt. According to the gov't of Argentina, as of Sept. 30, #corn was 17 percent planted versus 19 percent last year. https://bit.ly/2ZQNXeJ
2/ #Wheat development ranged from vegetative in the south to filling in northern farming areas, many of which need moisture.
30 day precip % of average:
Precip % average the last 90 days below
Rains the next 16 days from the just out 18z GFS ensemble mean(American model)
Eric Snodgrass SA forecast oct4th
Thank you Mike for all the work you do to bring us the weather!
YW cutworm...........and thank you for passing on Eric's wonderful weather analysis.
You'll love the stuff below!!!
Crop calendar for Argentina:
#Argentina's #soybeans are most concentrated in Cordoba, Santa Fe & Buenos Aires. The 2020/21 crop is pegged @ ~50 mln tonnes (1.84 bln bu). That is roughly the estimated 2020 crop of the U.S. I-states plus Minnesota. Speaking of, they fit quite nicely in Argentina's grain belt.
Crop calendar for Brazil
This data comes from the GFS/US model.
It's constantly updated every day.
Latest 16 days total precip from the 12z GFS Ensemble mean.
It's pretty early in the planting season.
Huge rains for coffeeland.
Pretty widespread rains for South America and Brazil. These are the totals from the last 12z GFS ensemble mean. Bearish for the beans.
BEARISH weather for South America and bearish USDA report today.
Still bearish weather in SA! 16 day rain totals from the 12z GFS ensemble mean.
Total 16 day rains from the 12z GFS Ensemble. A bit dry in Argentina and maybe far southern Brazil but robust in most of Brazil.
Still pretty good rains in Brazil. A bit on the lighter side in Argentina(and extreme far south Brazil) but no blocking pattern to shut down rains.
12z GFS Ens for 16 day total rains below:
16 day totals from the 18z GFS ENS below. OK amounts most places.
Still pretty favorable weather SA. 16 day totals below.
still pretty good rains. N. Argentina not so much.
Big rains central Brazil. Turning drier far S.Brazil/Argentina.
Big rains Central Brazil. Not enough for far S.Brazil and Eastern Argentina.
This area looks to have the potential for dryness issues developing.
One-week rainfall totals in Argentina (values in inches) All of it extremely welcome
Now I know why coffee dropped yesterday. Got a drink of water...
These are rains for Argentina and far souther Brazil.
The coffee area are much farther north in east central Brazil.
I have no idea how much rain they got last week but there has been tons of rain in forecast for coffee for weeks and I’m guessing a lot has been falling looking at the improved soil moisture.
Great rains Central Brazil. A bit drier than average in far S.Brazil to E.Argentina.
Ideally, they need 2.5-3 inches of rain just for average in this 16 day period.
Robust rains for Brazil( except for the extreme farthest south part of Brazil). A bit on the dry side for Argentina, especially the farther south crop areas.
Great rains everywhere in Brazil.
Getting dry for southern growing areas of Argentina.
Southern half or more of Argentina beans are pretty dry the next 2 weeks. Some big producing areas for that country.
Pretty hot there too at times:
Rains the last 30 and 90 days.
Dry in N. Argentina and far S.Brazil.
All of Argentina to get less than half the average rain the next 2 weeks. This is bullish weather for the beans at some point if it isn't now already. However, almost ALL of Brazil gets massive rains which is bearish weather(a bit too much in C. Brazil)..........but its still early in the season too. They are still just planting. If the pattern is still like this in a month, I think we will attract fund money into buying. But its weather........and often changes.
The most recent La Nina Modoki events were early in the year of 2008 and 2012. Briefly, La Nina Modoki occurred in early 1989. The climate bias of La Nina Modoki during those few analog years was a wetter winter climate for Texas to the Mid-south U.S. compared to normal La Nina, wetter for Brazil and Argentina compared to normal La Nina and in Australia the wet bias was across the northwest, north and East Coast.
Comments from yesterday are especially for good today with the beans spiking much higher! We also have some heat(that was there yesterday) to go with low rainfall amounts in Argentina for the rest of the month.
Still pretty dry in Argentina the next 2 weeks. Lots of rain in Brazil.
Rains picked up a bit in Central Argentina on the 2 week totals but I don't know if that's why beans are lower today. I'll guess maybe not. Crude being lower might be a factor.
Rain amounts have increased for Argentina! Dropped for S. Brazil.
Good rain in C. Brazil but below average for Argentina still and now into S.Brazil:
It's still planting season in many areas.
Pretty dry in much of the key growing region of Argentina the next 2 weeks......into far S.Brazil. Big rains C.Brazil.
This is bullish weather for the beans. No completely blocking heat ridge but temps should get above average, especially in week 2.
Weather still looks dry/bullish for Argentina but its still planting season. Much of Brazil has good rains but NOT far southern Brazil.
Beans had a gap and crap buying exhaustion formation on the trading charts overnight.........after the funds came in selling this morning and closed last nights gap higher. Pretty bearish technical signature.
Here's a good discussion/explanation for gapandcraps.
GapandCrap buying(selling) exhaustion formation
1 response |
Started by metmike - Aug. 30, 2019, 6:12 p.m.
Still pretty dry and bullish in much of the key Argentina growing region the next 2 weeks (they are still planting), into S.Brazil. At some point, if this continues it will inspire more aggressive buying but the current environment and time of year is causing weather to have a back seat.
Still pretty dry for especially key Argentina growing areas the next 2 weeks..... to S Brazil with just a tad more rain today vs earlier this week.
Still pretty dry Argentina to far s Brazil.
2 week total rains below from the last 12z GFS ensemble model. Still pretty dry in Argentina/S.Brazil and bullish wx for beans.........been that way for a week now(see previous posts). Most of the crop will be planted soon and if it continues it will be increasingly bullish.......especially since we will be getting a bit of heat too.
Rain chances increasing from the west late in week 2 in Argentina. Still a long ways off.
Rain amounts in Argentina (and S.Brazil) continue to increase with possibly a wetter pattern late in the 2 week period.
From the Hightower report. "
Thanks much Jim!
Still pretty dry for the northeast 1/2 of the Argentina growing area and the southern parts of Brazil.
There's a bit more rain in the 2 week forecast in the dry spots of Argentina and S. Brazil here on Sunday than there was last week. However it's still only half the average. Those areas need the light blue color to completely cover them up for the forecast to be at least 2 inches of rain. Soils are more porous in SA/don't hold water as well, so they actually need a bit more rain than we do.
Still more rain for ARG and S.Brazil than last week but still not the amounts needed for the crops in those areas.
MUCH LESS rain than yesterday for Arg and S.Brazil. In fact, dryness is going to start taking a toll in Argentina soon(maybe in S.Brazil too) if this forecast continues for the rest of the month since there will also be MAJOR heat.
The bright green is the heat anomaly over this region in 2 weeks!
Pretty Dry in Argentina into S.Brazil and bullish for beans...which are bucking the crash lower in wheat today.
Still too dry in Argentina and S.Brazil and bullish for bean prices.
Wx still bullish in all of Argentina into much of far S. Brazil. Big rounds of heat to go with it!
Day 4 and day 12 temp anomalies below:
Still very bullish for Argentina into far S.Brazil. Crude down $4 is holding beans down.
Rains amounts go up a bit at the very end of 2 weeks and especially start of week 3.
back to dry and bullish for beans Argentina and s brazil.
Still bullish weather and now the dropping crude isn't holding the beans back.
Mike, are you an insomniac or do you get up at 2 in the morning just to check the weather and post for us?
I stay up late until the 0z models are completely out much of the time, which ends with the European ensemble model around 2am Central/my time.
Sometimes I'll post the updates here then, especially if its a change and I'm in my office.
Not so if I'm in bed on my Ipad(that can't do that).
Sometimes, in my bed on the Ipad, I'll fall to sleep during the European model and wake up an hour later.
I will also wake up by alarm at 5:30a to get the next run of the GFS when the markets are reacting to every model run and I have a position on.
Lately, I've been getting lazy and the markets have been gyrating with wild spikes in both directions, sometimes against the right direction/move so that its like riding a bucking bronco that throws you off every time (-:
But getting more sleep!
I know I have expressed my appreciation before, but thank you for making the effort to post your updates. I might not always respond, but trust me, I am always reading your updates.
That makes it worthwhile Jim! You're very welcome.
Awesome people like you are a big reason to do it!
Can you tell if the Argentina/S.Brazil weather is bullish(-:
IMO this rally should have happened earlier based on the weather models and previous, similar situations.
The GFS is suggesting possible rains CHANCES after day 10 after no rain and blistering heat at times and this is like late June for us in the Northern Hemisphere for them down there.
The only way I would short is if we come in one day with a massive rain event and pattern change thats closer than this.
Sure can. So can my account. Stay the course, the trend is your friend. :)
Glad to read that you made some money Jim!
Rain chances are starting to increase later in week 2 but that's a long way off after some intense heat and no rain.
Rain chances are increasing at the very end of week 1, so the easy money for the bulls has already been made. These are 2 week rain totals below. Still below average and we need at least bright blue(2+ inches) to really help but 1-1.5 inches is better than no rain.
Same as yesterday. SOME rain finally but still not nearly enough in the super dry spots that have been burning up in Argentina/S.Brazil.
If we have learned anything over the last couple years, is that boll weevil spit is enough to keep these plants alive... :)
Exactly Jim! Better, drought tolerant varieties but the always overlooked part..........increasing CO2 causes plants to be more drought tolerant.
They have stomata on the underside of their leaves that open up to pull in CO2.
At the same time, they lose water from transpiration. With elevated levels of CO2, they don't need to open their stomata as wide and thus, have less transpiration and conserve moisture........optimize water use efficiency.
Evolution of stomata responsiveness to CO2 and optimization of water-use efficiency among land plants.
Same as previous days. Some rain finally coming to spots burning up from hot/dry. However, this is not a pattern change to favorable weather(or beans would be crashing lower by 30c). IThere is still more heat and dryness between/after the rains.
Next weeks rain event was enough for us to drop 30c shortly after the previous post when we were only down 11c.
San Del Estaro in the northern growing region of Argentina has a current temperature of 108 degrees and its been that hot all week. It only produces around 5% of the crop but that crop is either dead or gone dormant waiting for rains. The beans can do that. I watched it happen in 2012.
The corn is dead there.
Cordoba, which is the highest producing area in the central district has been up close to 100 all week.
All with low humidities and winds this week.
And is hasn't rained for a couple of weeks and was dry before then.
Argentina will have the lowest yields in decades. Extremely high confidence. I don't ever remember weather like this there the last 2 decades.
Some of this weather has affected S.Brazil which has also been burning up with no rain.
Some places in Central Brazil have had too much rain.
Rain chances coming next week to the dry spots put pressure on beans the last few days.