NG 7/4/21+
51 responses | 0 likes
Started by MarkB - July 5, 2021, 11:26 p.m.

Renewing the NG thread here.


I'm going out on a limb here, and say that the reason for the continuing drive in the price, is the heat dome out west. I don't see Elsa as that big a deal as far as NG goes. Perhaps just an excuse. 

Comments
Re: NG 7/4/21+
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By Jim_M - July 6, 2021, 11:10 a.m.
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Elsa was definitely an excuse!  

By metmike - July 6, 2021, 1:19 p.m.
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Blowoff top/buying exhaustion  in a bull market that hadvery little to do,with Elsa.

Forecasts getting cooler were just too much.

The very early AM European model coming in cooler put the last nail in the short term bullish coffin.

Today may mark a technical strong reversal down day that could put the highs in for awhile.

Edit-unless the forecast turns hotter again.

PREVIOUS THREAD:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/

By WxFollower - July 6, 2021, 3:11 p.m.
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 I think that this was mainly just an excuse to go lower as the 0Z Tue EE was still 3 CDD warmer than the 0Z Fri EE while the GFS E was about the same as Fri. Overdone as usual.

By metmike - July 6, 2021, 4:05 p.m.
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Thanks Larry, in the hospital with dad so I can’t post the graphs but the previous early am european ens model came in quite a cooler in week 2 than the previous run.

The 12z GFS was the coolest in several runs.

This last european  ens model came out much warmer in week 2 and ng has bounced to mid range and only a bit lower.

Do you agree with this.


By WxFollower - July 6, 2021, 4:16 p.m.
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 You're pretty much dead on. Yes, the 12Z GEFS is the coolest in awhile. The 12Z EE came in 3 CDD warmer than the 0Z, which itself had been 3 CDD cooler  (all in the 11-15). So, today's 12Z EE is on par with yesterday's 12Z EE and is ~6 CDD warmer than the Fri 0Z EE.  So, changes in the EE 11-15 runs, indeed, but not by a whole lot. IMO, the market primed to crash with just the smallest excuse after going up 9 days in a row. Although it is silly, it may have used the excuse of Elsa staying near FL although that was the forecast back on Fri and its impact in the W GOM could have easily been more bearish than bullish.


PS: Hoping your dad gets out soon! You're a very good son.


 

By tjc - July 6, 2021, 8:39 p.m.
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WX

Any guidance for grain traders?  Was/is rain over forecasted?  Poor totals?  TIA

By WxFollower - July 6, 2021, 11:17 p.m.
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tjc,

 I'm sorry, but I haven't been following the grains/Midwest rainfall.

By metmike - July 7, 2021, 12:32 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Fall Short of Tenth Consecutive Gain; Cash Prices Climb

 Natural gas futures on Tuesday dipped lower, as traders took profits and mulled the possibility of eased near-term weather-driven demand following a punishing heat wave that permeated much of the country in late June and early this month.   The August Nymex contract shed 6.3 cents day/day and settled at $3.637/MMBtu. The prompt month had advanced… 

By metmike - July 7, 2021, 9:24 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Near Unchanged Early as Weather Seen as ‘Neutral’

 

As cooling demand expectations eased slightly in the latest weather data, natural gas futures hovered close to even early Wednesday. At around 8:45 a.m. ET, the August Nymex contract was off 0.5 cents to $3.632/MMBtu. The latest forecast from Bespoke Weather Services Wednesday showed a small decrease in gas-weighted degree day (GWDD) expectations, with the… 

metmike: European model was back to much cooler very early this morning.

By metmike - July 8, 2021, 9:59 a.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures Slump for Second Straight Day; Cash Prices Fall

 Natural gas futures on Wednesday dropped lower, following a decline the previous day, as traders mulled weather-driven demand, stagnated liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels, and the potential storage injection with the federal government’s pending report Thursday morning.   The August Nymex contract fell 4.1 cents day/day and settled at $3.596/MMBtu. September shed 3.4 cents to $3.574.…


Thursday morning: 

Natural Gas Bulls Look to Stop Bleeding as Futures Slide Ahead of EIA Report

Coming off losses in the previous two sessions, natural gas futures continued to slide in early trading Thursday as the market prepared to digest the latest round of government inventory data. The August Nymex contract was off 2.0 cents to $3.576/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. Ahead of this week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage… 


By metmike - July 8, 2021, 10:25 a.m.
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Temperatures the 7 days for the EIA report this week. Record heat in the Northwest. Hot in the Northeast. Cool C.Plains to NM.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210702.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - July 8, 2021, 10:31 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 2, 2021   |  Released: July 8, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 15, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

+ 16 BCF VERY BULLISH!!!                                                                                                                                           

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/02/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region07/02/2106/25/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East521  513  8  8   654  -20.3  578  -9.9  
Midwest638  623  15  15   758  -15.8  656  -2.7  
Mountain177  173  4  4   179  -1.1  170  4.1  
Pacific246  244  2  2   309  -20.4  286  -14.0  
South Central991  1,005  -14  -14   1,225  -19.1  1,075  -7.8  
   Salt286  296  -10  -10   365  -21.6  310  -7.7  
   Nonsalt705  709  -4  -4   861  -18.1  765  -7.8  
Total2,574  2,558  16  16   3,125  -17.6  2,764  -6.9  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,574 Bcf as of Friday, July 2, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 16 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 551 Bcf less than last year at this time and 190 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,764 Bcf. At 2,574 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By metmike - July 8, 2021, 10:36 a.m.
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  https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  Latest Release  Jul 08, 2021    Actual16B    Forecast34B   Previous76B






Jul 08, 2021 10:3016B34B76B
Jul 01, 2021 10:3076B68B55B
Jun 24, 2021 10:3055B66B16B
Jun 17, 2021 10:3016B72B98B
Jun 10, 2021 10:3098B98B98B
Jun 03, 2021 10:3098B95B115B

By metmike - July 8, 2021, 11:58 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Rebound Sharply After EIA Stuns with Modest 16 Bcf Storage Injection

 Fueled by a large decline in production, intense heat and a return to strong exports, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a modest 16 Bcf injection into storage inventories for the week ending July 2. The figure came in below the lowest of expectations, sending Nymex natural gas futures screaming higher. The August Nymex contract… 


metmike: Quite a shocker. Explains the amazing strength for natural gas last week, into the holiday portion of this week.

By metmike - July 9, 2021, 3:37 a.m.
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Paltry Storage Build Fuels Rebound for August Natural Gas Futures; Spot Prices Sail Higher

 Natural gas futures bounced back on Thursday, bolstered by an anemic increase in inventories that pointed to a tight supply/demand balance and ignited concerns about adequate storage levels. The August Nymex contract spiked 9.2 cents day/day and settled at $3.688/MMBtu. September jumped 9.3 cents to $3.667. At A Glance: EIA reports a 16 Bcf storage… 

By WxFollower - July 11, 2021, 4:23 p.m.
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1. This last EIA release was the most bullish since January with a bullish miss of 17 bcf vs the WSJ survey mean.

2. I have the EE and GE at 12Z today both near 5 CDD more bearish on a same day basis vs the Fri 12Z runs.

By metmike - July 11, 2021, 10:40 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

The ng market is pretty weak so far this evening,  likely from the slight cooler weather forecast.

By metmike - July 11, 2021, 10:43 p.m.
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This is often a very bearish time of the year, seasonally/historically for natural gas.



https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160158-natural-gas-seasonal-play-sets-up-for-springtime-option-sellers

Natural Gas: Seasonal Play Sets Up For Springtime Option Sellers | Seeking  Alpha

                                    

By metmike - July 11, 2021, 10:51 p.m.
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Temperatures for the 7 days for this weeks EIA report

Hot-West  Mild-South Cool-Northeast

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210709.7day.mean.F.gif

By tjc - July 12, 2021, 9:47 a.m.
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WOW  Huge breakout.  WX, could you please comment     TIA

By metmike - July 12, 2021, 11:02 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Higher as Market Shrugs Off ‘Decidedly Bearish’ Weather Trends

 Bolstered by relatively strong cooling demand overall, natural gas futures shrugged off bearish trends in the weather outlook over the weekend to probe slightly higher in early trading Monday. The August Nymex contract was up 1.3 cents to $3.687/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. The natural gas futures market faced mixed signals as of early… 

metmike: Pretty impressive strength without much help from the weather. However, week 2 does heat up.


By Jim_M - July 12, 2021, 12:24 p.m.
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NG looks to be building some strong resistance up around the $3.80 area.  Better be a bullish injection Thursday.

By Jim_M - July 12, 2021, 1:08 p.m.
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Off the wire...

Natural gas is on a tear, up 45% year-to-date and trading another 2.2% higher mid-morning in NY at a nearly three-year high of $3.758/mmBtu. But analysts at BofA Global Research are skeptical. "We struggle to identify fundamental drivers to support the magnitude of the move higher," they say. "First the storage deficit remains modest ... Second, while coal to gas switching has been more resilient than thought, we still estimate about 1 Bcf/d of switching will take place between $3.00/MMBtu and $3.40/MMBtu. Finally, we maintain our view that production will continue to edge higher and accelerate into 2022 with L48 production growing nearly 4 Bcf/d year over year."
By metmike - July 12, 2021, 1:19 p.m.
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Thanks Jim!!

By metmike - July 12, 2021, 10:17 p.m.
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Despite Cooler Forecast Shift, August Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Jump as Heat Reigns Out West 

 Traders looked past a tilt toward cooler weather in new forecasts and focused instead on near-term heat and expectations for both strong domestic demand and U.S. exports over the balance of summer, sending natural gas futures higher on Monday. At A Glance: Traders zero in on near-term heat LNG demand to surge further Outlooks call…


metmike: tjc, you trade right? In fact, you have been trading for a very long time.  What are your thoughts on the ng market please? We can all benefit from your views.

Thanks

By Jim_M - July 13, 2021, 12:40 p.m.
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At this point, post hurricanes are selling opportunities.  

By metmike - July 14, 2021, 12:48 a.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Retreat Along With Weather, LNG Data

 Natural gas futures on Tuesday slid lower, following forecasts for a pullback in weather-driven demand and lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) levels in the wake of maintenance work.   At A Glance: Forecasts call for lighter demand Maintenance work slows LNG exports Wildfires create another wrinkle in West Natural gas futures bounced back on Thursday, bolstered… 

By metmike - July 14, 2021, 12:01 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures ‘Jumpy’ Early as Balances Said Tight; Forecasts Trend Cooler

 Despite forecasts showing July heat easing compared to previous expectations, natural gas futures advanced in early trading Wednesday as analysts continued to see tightness in the supply/demand balance. The August Nymex contract was up 3.0 cents to $3.726/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. Natural gas prices were “jumpy” in early trading Wednesday, with the August… 

By metmike - July 15, 2021, 10:22 a.m.
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Traders Await Latest EIA Storage Number as Natural Gas Futures Pull Back Early

 As traders eyed the upcoming release of the latest weekly government inventory data, and as overnight forecasts advertised cooler trends for later this month, natural gas futures slid a few cents lower in early trading Thursday. The August Nymex contract was down 3.1 cents to $3.629/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET. Major surveys ahead of… 

By metmike - July 15, 2021, 10:30 a.m.
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https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 9, 2021   |  Released: July 15, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 22, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             +55 BCF Bearish                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/09/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region07/09/2107/02/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East543  521  22  22   670  -19.0  598  -9.2  
Midwest662  638  24  24   777  -14.8  678  -2.4  
Mountain180  177  3  3   185  -2.7  175  2.9  
Pacific250  246  4  4   312  -19.9  290  -13.8  
South Central995  991  4  4   1,228  -19.0  1,078  -7.7  
   Salt283  286  -3  -3   360  -21.4  305  -7.2  
   Nonsalt712  705  7  7   868  -18.0  773  -7.9  
Total2,629  2,574  55  55   3,172  -17.1  2,818  -6.7  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,629 Bcf as of Friday, July 9, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 543 Bcf less than last year at this time and 189 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,818 Bcf. At 2,629 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

By MarkB - July 15, 2021, 12:23 p.m.
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Still seeing a lot of conflict in the market. Bearish report, but stocks low compared to last year. Of which 2020 was an unusual year for everything. What I see, is above average stocks for this time of year. Mostly due to the milder summer we've been having.

By metmike - July 16, 2021, 11:26 a.m.
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"What I see, is above average stocks for this time of year."

Thanks Mark!

The gray line below is the 5 year average. The blue line is the lastest stocks number.  The blue line falling below the gray line is a big part of the bullishness in ng recently. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/72023/#72263

Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By Jim_M - July 16, 2021, 12:09 p.m.
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I thought I saw something the other day where China is restricting buying LNG until the price is about $1 cheaper.  

By metmike - July 16, 2021, 1:19 p.m.
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China and much of Europe had a very cold Winter and started the year with very low natural gas in storage that has required them to buy a ton of ng, some from the US.


Thats a big part of why we've had record exports.

By Jim_M - July 16, 2021, 1:40 p.m.
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That and Russia (Gazprom) is squeezing them.  

By metmike - July 18, 2021, 5:17 p.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures Bounce Back as Inventory Concerns Bubble Up

 

Natural gas futures rebounded on Friday, following three straight daily losses, as traders mulled the potential for paltry levels of stockpiles ahead of the withdrawal season later this year. The August Nymex contract gained 6.0 cents day/day and settled at $3.674/MMBtu. September advanced 5.7 cents to $3.658. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg., however, fell 13.5… 

By metmike - July 19, 2021, 12:14 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Rally on Weekend Forecast Shift; ‘Formidable’ Resistance Seen at $3.81-3.82

 A hotter shift in forecasts over the weekend helped spark a rally for natural gas futures in early trading Monday. The August Nymex contract was up 7.9 cents to $3.753/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. Forecasts increased demand expectations over the weekend by showing hotter temperatures to close out the month of July, according to… 

By WxFollower - July 19, 2021, 6:35 p.m.
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 Yes, today NG had modest warmer wx support (modestly increased CDDs in the models after modest drops just prior), but make no mistake about it that NG these last few days overall has been supported mainly by non-wx influences in my strong opinion. Also, forecasted US CDDs are still not looking all that far from overall, regardless. The morning 15 day forecast that I saw was actually slightly cooler than the 10 year average.

So, there clearly are other market factors in play.

By metmike - July 19, 2021, 6:41 p.m.
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Thanks Larry!

Much agreed, this has not been a very good weather play. 

Today, with crude PLUNGING more than $5, mainly from concerns because of COVID increasing again with ignorant people refusing to get vaccinated, we had the perfect excuse for natural gas to sell off...........if it wanted to. Instead we went up almost $1,000/contract.

By metmike - July 19, 2021, 6:41 p.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas ‘Off to the Races’ on Strong LNG, Mexico Demand and Producer Discipline

 U.S. natural gas demand and prices are “off to the races,” driven by a convergence of supply and demand-related factors as the world emerges from Covid-19, IHS Markit’s Jack Weixel, senior director, said Monday. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to the global market, pipeline exports to Mexico, and capital discipline by upstream producers all have

By MarkB - July 21, 2021, 12:24 a.m.
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Can't really tie weather as an issue to the market. It seems we are in a flip-flop with the northwest. Alabama has had so much rain and lower than average temps for this time of year. According to the GFS, we should take a sudden dive into average temps in about 2 weeks. But that's been on the radar for the last month. Changes daily. As does the weather. Predictions/expectations, just haven't panned out.


Seasonals are a bust as well. Last year it was due to the covid. Got that. This year? 


JMHO

By metmike - July 21, 2021, 2:43 a.m.
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August Natural Gas Futures Rally Again, Lifted by Forecasts for More Heat, Storage Concerns

 Bolstered by favorable weather outlooks and supply concerns, natural gas futures forged higher on Tuesday, following a 10.5-cent gain the previous day. The August Nymex contract settled at $3.876/MMBtu, up 9.7 cents day/day and in the green for a third consecutive session. September rose 9.8 cents to $3.852. At A Glance: Demand forecasts hold strong… 

By Jim_M - July 21, 2021, 11:03 a.m.
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We are behind the 5 year average.  I believe Mike has mentioned that exports are up and I know that Europe is playing catch up with their storage.  Country wide heat wave coming and injections have been wanting.  We haven't even really got started with hurricanes yet.  Maybe we won't have any hurricanes shooting up into the Gulf this year, but if we do that will slow the pace as well.  

By metmike - July 21, 2021, 2:11 p.m.
Like Reply

Agreed Jim!

Massive heat wave coming up which could challenge all time highest AC use for residential cooling in the country. This has been amazing!


From earlier this morning:

Natural Gas Futures Continue ‘Unstoppable’ Rally as Forecasts Extend Hotter Trends

Fueled by continued hotter trends in the latest forecast and supply concerns, natural gas futures extended their recent gains in early trading Wednesday. The August Nymex contract was up 4.7 cents to $3.923/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. After settling sharply higher in Tuesday’s session, futures continued to climb overnight. Analysts at EBW Analytics Group… 

By WxFollower - July 21, 2021, 11:23 p.m.
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 Mike,

  It is indeed looking hotter/hot, but the number of added CDDs this week is only a modest ~8. Actually, if we were to compare forecasted CDDs now with forecasted CDDs as of a week ago Monday, they are about a wash. So, I still say there are other bullish supporting factors that have been a big factor.

By metmike - July 22, 2021, 12:17 a.m.
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Thanks much Larry!

Yes, I should have elaborated on the reasoning for this to be amazing.

Not because the weather is so amazing but the incredible, super duper bullish reaction to the  weather.

When was the price of ng last up this high.....other than a brief spike higher during a record cold spell in Winter?

++++++++++++++++++++++

Thursday morning early:

Natural Gas Futures Ease Lower Ahead of EIA Report; Potential Test of $4 Predicted

 Natural gas futures pulled back slightly in early trading Thursday as traders awaited the latest government inventory data, although analysts saw potential for an advance to the $4 mark in the near future. The August Nymex contract was off 2.9 cents to $3.930/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. For the latest weekly Energy Information Administration… 


By metmike - July 22, 2021, 10:47 a.m.
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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending July 16, 2021   |  Released: July 22, 2021 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: July 29, 2021 

                                                                                                                                                                           +49 BCF            a bit bearish?                                                                                                              

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(07/16/20)
5-year average
(2016-20) 
Region07/16/2107/09/21net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East562  543  19  19   690  -18.6  618  -9.1  
Midwest683  662  21  21   796  -14.2  697  -2.0  
Mountain183  180  3  3   189  -3.2  178  2.8  
Pacific247  250  -3  -3   311  -20.6  290  -14.8  
South Central1,002  995  7  7   1,222  -18.0  1,071  -6.4  
   Salt279  283  -4  -4   350  -20.3  295  -5.4  
   Nonsalt723  712  11  11   872  -17.1  776  -6.8  
Total2,678  2,629  49  49   3,210  -16.6  2,854  -6.2  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,678 Bcf as of Friday, July 16, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 532 Bcf less than last year at this time and 176 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,854 Bcf. At 2,678 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2016 through 2020. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 


By metmike - July 22, 2021, 10:50 a.m.
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U.S. Natural Gas Storage

  https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

Latest Release     Jul 22, 2021    Actual49B    Forecast44B     Previous55B


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Jul 22, 2021 10:3049B44B55B
Jul 15, 2021 10:3055B47B16B
Jul 08, 2021 10:3016B34B76B
Jul 01, 2021 10:3076B68B55B
Jun 24, 2021 10:3055B66B16B
Jun 17, 2021 10:3016B72B98B

By metmike - July 22, 2021, 10:52 a.m.
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These were the 7 day temps for the period in this morning's EIA report.

Hot, especially in the middle of the country! Some of that heat affected the East and South.  Cool along the West Coast. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20210615.7day.mean.F.gif

By MarkB - July 22, 2021, 10:55 a.m.
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Not bearish enough to overcome the forecast.

By WxFollower - July 23, 2021, 5:20 p.m.
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 There's no doubt in my mind that NG's over 4 cent drop 2:15-3:30 PM EDT was largely brought on by profit-taking of longs and new shorts when the Euro suite came in cooler, especially the EE in week 2.


*Edit: I started a new NG thread here:

https://marketforum.com/forum/topic/72658/