INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - June 22, 2021, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 22, 2021   

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +15.4%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +16.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected 18; previous 18)

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 12)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 5.68M; previous 5.85M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.9%; previous -2.7%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.4)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 341600)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +19.1%)

 



 

 

1:00 PM ET. May Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.5M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.9M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)

 



 

 

Wednesday, June 23, 2021  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 672.4)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +4.2%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.3)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 3026.6)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter International Transactions

 



 

 

                       Current Account (USD) (expected -207.0B; previous -188.48B)

 



 

 

9:45 PM ET. June US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 62.1; previous 61.5)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. June US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (expected 70.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 872K; previous 863K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +1.0%; previous -5.9%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 4.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. May State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 466.674M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -7.355M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 242.98M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.954M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.191M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.023M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 92.6%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.571M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +2.858M)

 

                        

 



 

 

Thursday, June 24, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 294.1K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 71.8K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 287.1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 380K; previous 412K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +37K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 3518000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +1K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Advance Report on Durable Goods

 



 

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +2.7%; previous -1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.0%)

 



 

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +2.3%)

 

                        

 

                       Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 

                        

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +6.4%; previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +4.3%; previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q%

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.7%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.9%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +9.4%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

 

                        

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +11.3%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Revised Corporate Profits

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2427B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +16B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. June Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing

 



 

 

                       Mfg Activity Idx (previous 32)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 50)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Composite Idx (previous 26)

 



 

 

                       6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 33)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board releases latest bank stress test results

 



 

 

Friday, June 25, 2021  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. May Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -13.1%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +3.6%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +3.5%; previous +3.1%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter GDP by State

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 86.6; previous 82.9)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 78.8)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 89.4)

 



 

 

Monday, June 28, 2021  

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. June Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous 34.9)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 15.7)

 



 

 

Tuesday, June 29, 2021  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. April U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.8%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +2.2%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.3%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 117.2)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 144.3)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,722.89 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 14,204.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,857.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,722.90.



The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight following Monday's upside reversal and sharply higher close. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's rally, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4126.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of May's low crossing at 4020.00 later this summer. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 4258.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4126.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 4020.00.    



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of Monday's sharp decline that marked a downside reversal. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 162-05. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 164-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 158-01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156-24.  



September T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September renews its rally off March's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 133.065. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-decline crossing at 133.163. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 131.140. Second support is May's low crossing at 131.000.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this year's rally, the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $73.36. Second resistance is the October-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $76.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $69.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $65.95.



August heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews this year's rally, the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2875 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0160 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $2.1306. Second resistance is the October-2018 high crossing at $2.2806. First support the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.0160. Second support is the May 21st low crossing at $1.9490.  



August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1038 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of May's low crossing at $2.0200. First resistance is June's high crossing at $2.2319. Second resistance is the May-2018 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $2.2855. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.1038. Second support is May's low crossing at $2.0200.



August Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.157 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 3.786 is the next upside target. First resistance resistance is June's high crossing at 3.385. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3.786. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.157. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.046.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.56 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.46. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-May-decline crossing at $92.93. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $91.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $90.56.



The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $120.51. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $121.36. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.83. Second support is the the 87% retracement level of the March-May-rally crossing at $118.17.

 

The September British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4089 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.3678 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4024. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4089. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.3788. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.3678.



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1107 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1062. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1107. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0854. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-June-rally crossing at 1.0774.

 

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $81.74. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.23. First support is Monday's low crossing at $80.08. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $79.62.  



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are again turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 0.090180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091670 would signal that  a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.091165. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.091670. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.090290. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.090180.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1867.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1832.60. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1867.40. First support is the April-29th low crossing at $1756.80. Second support is the April-13th low crossing at $1725.50.



July silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the April 13th low crossing at $24.725 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.547 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $27.109. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $27.547. First support is Monday's low crossing at $25.580. Second support is the April 13th low crossing at $24.725. 



July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.4601 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 11th high crossing at 4.5950. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.7070. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.0880. Second support is the April 12th low crossing at 3.9950.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's gains. Monday's crop conditions report showed the good/excellent rating to 65% declined 3% from the previous week. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.87 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $6.87 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $7.17 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.29 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.02 3/4.        



July wheat was higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.71 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.89 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.36 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $6.15 1/4.

 

July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.19 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.47 1/2. First support is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-rally crossing at $5.83. Second support is March's low crossing at $5.59 1/2.



July Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight following Monday's bullish crop conditions report. The report showed that spring wheat declined by 10% to just 27% G/E and 37% P/VP. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Monday's low, June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.37 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $8.02 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $8.43 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.37 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $6.68 3/4.  

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of decline off last-Thursday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off June's high, the January 25th low crossing at $12.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.55 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.01. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $13.23 1/2. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $12.82 1/4.

 

July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $383.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $383.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $404.90. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $353.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $331.10.    


July soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.19. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 55.85. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at 50.31.    

    

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



July hogs closed down $1.63 at $107.05. 



July hogs closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $102.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $117.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's gap crossing at $115.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $123.60. First support is today's low crossing at $105.70. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021-rally crossing at $102.88.  



August cattle closed down $0.53 at $121.03. 



August cattle closed lower on Monday as it as it extended last-week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.35 would signal that a top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $125.78. Second resistance is the February-2021 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $126.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $119.35. Second support is June's low crossing at $114.62. 



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.35 at $154.68. 


August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of this month rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's gap crossing at $151.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews this month's rally, April's high crossing at $162.40. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $160.15. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $162.40. First support is last-Monday's gap crossing at $151.90. Second support is the June 10th low crossing at $146.75. 



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.79 would open the door for a possible test of the May 13th low crossing at 14.39. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.58 would signal that a low has been posted.             



September cocoa closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, last-November's low crossing at 22.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                  



July sugar posted a key reversal up on Monday and closed above the broken neckline of the April-June head-and-shoulder's top crossing near 16.63. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 17.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The April-June head-and-shoulders top projects a decline to the 14.75 area later this summer.      



July cotton closed slightly lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.47 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at 91.00 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - June 22, 2021, 12:04 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!


Crop ratings: Corn -3%, Beans -2%. Spring Wheat down a whopping 10%. HUGE gap higher for MWE last night thats holding. Corn has reversed lower from upcoming rains........beans are all over the place.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71355/


Weather: Bullish for WCB/Plains and in the extended. Tons of rain later this week for the central and eastern cornbelt.......bearish.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70329/


Natural gas........Big heat coming in early July!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70798/


Exports......market focused more on weather.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71345/


Beans in and out, then back in the teens:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/71166/


MarketForum producers tell us what's happening with their crops

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/70437/