New Covid "guesstimates" popping up
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Started by GunterK - May 7, 2021, 4:37 p.m.

Now, since Covid numbers have fallen, and we are slowly starting to relax, we are suddenly being told that Covid fatalities in the US are more than 900,000, almost double of what is officially stated.

Now wait a minute… unless you are glued all day to MSNBC, most of us believe that the actual covid fatalities are LESS than claimed. Most of us saw that Dept of Health memo that urged hospital doctors to report every hospital death as a covid death. We heard of motorcycle fatalities and gun-shot victims being counted as covid Deaths. Even the CDC recently told us that this year there was no flu problem, because all flu victims were reported as Covid victims.

So what is this all about?

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation claims that a lot of people died of Covid at home, and nobody reported it.

First, it needs to be mentioned that this institute gave us greatly exaggerated Covid projections, early 2020, which were opposed by other scientists. (Ref A). However, their estimates were used by our politicians to enforce our devastating lockdowns. Maybe it should also be mentioned that Bill Gates donated 279 mill to this institute, a few years ago. (Ref b)

I have a problem with their analysis. People who suffer from horrible Covid symptoms, unable to breathe, don’t stay at home. They run to an ER.

And other people who passed away at home, how do they know they were Covid fatalities???

“…IHME chief Dr. Christopher Murray explained in a series of videos that they used a “variety of statistical methods” to determine excess mortality, which was then weighed against six other factors to calculate whether it would have been due to the coronavirus or other causes….”

There is nothing wrong with this approach, in principle, IMHO, provided you have a lot of confidence in your assumptions, and in your other factors (when we used to run computer simulations, we used to call them “fudge factors”)

This will allow you to make an estimate, but not a precise, scientific answer. However, they not only suggest that the Covid deaths are almost double of what we are told, they give a very precise number of Covid fatalities….905,289

A very precise number, indeed,  for events that they suspected happened at home without any official person watching/reporting, using assumptions and various “factors”…... This sounds to me like tin-foil-hat science.

Here is the report…

An additional thought….many doctors have already claimed that the lockdowns have caused large number of people to lose their lives. You can’t blame such deaths on Covd… blame the politicians who ordered the lockdowns.

There were also many patients with serious health problems, who were unable to find proper medical care, during the peak Covid time period., because of Covid patients having priority. They died at home. They are not “Covid deaths”, even though the pandemic may have contributed Indirectly. Did they claims those deaths as Covid deaths? I would blame them on "not being prepared" better.

Actually, this institute is telling us that we cannot trust the official data given to us… and on that note, I can agree with them, although I lean towards the other side..."over-reported".

Infrowars presents a better analysis of this report than I can do.

In case you care to read it…

Ref A)

Ref B)

By metmike - May 7, 2021, 5:45 p.m.
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Great find Gunter!

It really ticks me off when scientists distort data and lie for their cause..........whether it's an ideology(politics) or to get grant money(greedy) or for prestige(ego).

I've been tracking COVID almost daily and pretty in touch with authentic data and can bust these biased/dishonest scientists immediately, just from inspecting this map of their's. Either somebody totally messed up the map or somebody doctored data...because I have the data to show its REALLY wrong. They give you a link as a source for this data.......but you CAN'T get this data there. That is often a red flag for somebody covering up. When you provide any data, graphs or maps, you ALWAYS show the source that can quickly allow the reader to verify it. This is your report again.

They call this: Cumulative total COVID-19 death rate by May 3, 2021

The color scheme on the right defines different levels of the death rate. Note the highest level, 300+ is represented by the darkest shade of orange.

Let's look at the data for the US. There are 7 states with that brightest shade of orange, Arizona, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Kentucky............interesting, but maybe a crazy coincidence that they are all Republican states that did not have strict COVID laws in place.............and none of the democratic states that actually had the highest COVID rates have this color.

Let's go to a credible source for some legit data and see where those states, out of 50 actually ranked:

Below is the the ranking from highest rate of COVID deaths to lowest below for the 7 states that this source shows as the top 7 out of 50 in the US. 

5. Mississippi 

6. Arizona

8. Louisiana   not in the top 7 but close

9. Alabama    not in the top 7 but close

18. Arkansas   not even close to the top 7

25. Kansas      really far away from the top 7

34. Kansas    really, really far away from the top 7

 They got this wrong by an extremely wide margin. Actually, when I first looked at their map and saw Kansas in dark orange, the bs meter in my head was going off loudly.

How is it, that  they jacked up the rates of these states, all republican states and left off the 4 states with the real world most COVID, all democratic states?

1. New Jersey

2. New York

3. Massachusetts

4. Rhode Island

I was looking at the data as objectively as possible, not considering politics but the correlation is almost impossible to happen randomly. 

To completely miss the top 4 and stick #34 up there ahead of #1? Dang, maybe some climate scientists were out of grant money to manufacture junk science in that field and decided to pick up a job doing COVID stats (-:

BTW, here's a map of the republican and democratic states, so that you can see they left out the high ranking COVID  blue states that should have been shaded dark orange and put in lower ranking COVID red states that did not belong in that group.

 20 Maps Showing The Last 20 Presidential Election Results - Tony Mapped It

By metmike - May 8, 2021, 12:18 a.m.
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I looked into this organization, the IHME to see what's going on with them to see if I could figure out why they are so blatantly wrong with this study.

Found some interesting things, including that they are funded by your favorite guy, Bill Gates.

Let's just share some of the info and not comment more.  Analyzing and showing how bad they were with this study in the previous pages speaks volumes from my point of view already.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is a research institute working in the area of global health statistics and impact evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. The Institute is headed by Christopher J.L. Murray, a physician and health economist, and professor at the University of Washington Department of Global Health, which is part of the School of Medicine.  IHME conducts research and trains scientists, policymakers, and the public in health metrics concepts, methods, and tools. Its mission includes judging the effectiveness and efficacy of health initiatives and national health systems.[1][2] IHME also trains students at the post-baccalaureate and post-graduate levels.

In 2020, IHME published its model projecting deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, and informed guidelines developed by the Trump administration. The model has received significant criticism from many in the epidemiological community for being misleading.


IHME was launched in June 2007 based on a core grant of $105 million primarily funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

In January 2014, IHME began releasing updates to the work, called the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2013. The work generated over 1 billion estimates of health outcomes.[32] GBD estimates are now being updated annually.[citation needed]

Some of the findings have been controversial. In 2012, IHME researchers estimated 1.2 million people died from malaria in 2010, double the WHO's estimate.[33][34]

Response to GBD

The 2010 Global Burden of Disease report was criticized for its lack of transparency of methods and data as well as its use of complex statistical methods to fill in data gaps when reliable statistics were unavailable. Thomas Bollyky, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, called for more transparency. The report was also criticized for its use of verbal autopsies because many diseases have similar symptoms, leading to potential mistakes.[31][35]

By metmike - May 8, 2021, 12:19 a.m.
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Are Bill Gates’s Billions Distorting Public Health Data?

Thanks to the Microsoft founder’s support, the IHME can make its own rules about how to track global health. That’s a problem.

By metmike - May 8, 2021, 12:25 a.m.
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For me, this is just another scientific entity releasing very wrong COVID data. Over the last year, we've witnessed dozens of incidents where supposed experts gave us data that was wrong, advice that was bad/ counterproductive and authorities stating complete nonsense. 

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     By metmike - Jan. 24, 2021, 2:33 a.m.            


Biden says nothing can change the trajectory of the Covid pandemic over the next several months

"President Joe Biden has painted a bleak picture of the nation’s coronavirus outbreak in his first few days in office, warning that it will take months to turn around the pandemic’s trajectory and that fatalities are expected to dramatically rise over the next few weeks.

jan 24, 2021

metmike: I'm repeating the headline of the title again here, along with the link, anticipating that over the next several months, that I will be coming back to this thread to demonstrate how nuts that statement was.  

february 7, 2021

metmike: ok, it took less than 2 weeks for the biden statements to be proven nuts with data that was obvious back when he made these statements.


Here's the latest TRUTHFUL/ACCURATE data:

COVID-May 8-dropping again-we mostly beat it!