INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 6, 2020, 8:13 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, November 6, 2020 



8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +530K; previous +661K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 7.7%; previous 7.9%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 29.47)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.02)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.07%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.6%; previous +4.65%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)



                       Government Payrolls (previous -216K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +877K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 61.4%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade



                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.1%; previous +0.4%)



3:00 PM ET. September Consumer Credit



                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +7.8B; previous -7.2B)



Monday, November 9, 2020  



10:00 AM ET. October Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 54.80)



                       ETI, Y/Y%


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=indexes"



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 were lower overnight consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 12,249.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,474.63 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance October's high crossing at 12,249.00. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 12,444.75. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10,942.25. Second support is September's low crossing at 10,656.50.



The December S&P 500 was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at 3532.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3367.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's  high crossing at 3532.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 3568.80. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3252.20. Second support is September's low crossing at 3210.70.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 175-03 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 173-17 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 176-10. Second resistance is the September 29th high crossing at 177-12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 173-17. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 169-17.



December T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 139.032 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.192 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the October 15th high crossing at 138.140. Second resistance is the September 29th high crossing at 139.260. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.181. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August-rally crossing at 137.160.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $32.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.19 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $39.19. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $39.83. First support is Monday's low crossing at $33.64. Second support is the the 62% retracement level of the  April-August-rally crossing at $32.61.  



December heating oil was lower overnight following a three-day rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off Monday's low, October's high crossing at $121.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $117.58. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 121.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at 102.52. Second support is the May 13th low crossing at $99.24. 



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at $121.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.83 would temper recent gains. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $117.58. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $121.44. First support is Monday's low crossing at $97.02. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at $92.55.     



December Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  oversold but remain neutral to bearish  signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.825 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.213 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.213. Second resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.396. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.926. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-rally crossing at 2.825.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, October's low crossing at $92.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $93.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $94.33. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the March-September-decline crossing at $94.72. First support is the overnight low crossing at $92.24. Second support is September's low crossing at $91.75.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the September 10th high crossing at 119.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $117.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $118.95. Second resistance is the September 10th high crossing at $119.42. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $116.13. Second support is September's low crossing at $116.31.



The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3012 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3182. Second resistance is the August 19th high crossing at 1.3270. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.2855. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.2736.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, August's high crossing at 1.1138 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0975 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.1124. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.1138. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0874. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the March-August-rally crossing at 1.0789. 



The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $76.97 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $75.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $76.76. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $76.97. First support is October's low crossing at $74.70. Second support is September's low crossing at $74.53.  



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight and tested the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0969. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0951 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0969. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-March rally crossing at 0.0979. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0950. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.0943.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80 is the next downside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1905.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1959.10. Second resistance is the September 16th high crossing at $1983.80. First support is October's low crossing at $1859.20. Second support is September's low crossing at $1851.00.



December silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the September 15th low crossing at $27.865 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $22.625 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $21.810. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $25.955. Second resistance is the September 15th high crossing at $27.865. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $22.625. Second support is September's low crossing at $21.810. 



December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0505 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 3.2180. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020 decline crossing at 3.2302. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.0505. Second support is October's low crossing at 2.8345.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at $4.22 1/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $4.22 1/4. Second resistance is the July-2019 high crossing at $4.23 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.84. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $3.60 1/2.       



December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the October 12th low crossing at $5.87 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $6.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2012-2016-decline crossing at $6.66 1/4. First support is the October 12th low crossing at $5.87. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.81 3/4.



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average  crossing at $5.52 3/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $5.79 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2020-decline crossing at $6.05 1/2. First support is the October 14th low crossing at $5.23 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.16 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at $5.87 3/4 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $5.71 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2019-2020-decline crossing at $5.87 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $5.46 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $5.46 1/2.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, monthly resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $10.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $11.12 3/4. Second resistance is monthly resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2012-2019-decline crossing at $11.71 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $10.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $10.30 3/4.



December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $404.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $376.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $393.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $404.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $376.40. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at $352.30.   

   

December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the December-2019 high crossing at 36.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 29th low crossing at 32.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 35.72. Second resistance is the December-2019 high crossing at 36.41. First support is the 38% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 31.82. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 30.68.



Comments
By metmike - Nov. 6, 2020, 3:05 p.m.
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By metmike - Nov. 6, 2020, 3:08 p.m.
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This is Friday's report from tallpine!

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2020, 3:34 p.m.
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Congrats to our US producers!

 I suggest that those who consider forward contract sales on their crops, do consider some sales on the way up here over the next 2 months. There is no way you can't make a nice profit at these prices. Do not try to pick a top and do assume, that when we are within shouting distance of the Brazil harvest, let's say in January, that prices could plunge from a spike high before then(from rationing the shortage of old crop).

With the current La Nina lasting into 2021, odds of a drought in the US next year are elevated. With the current, extremely bullish fundamentals, a drought in the US would cause all time record highs in the beans by a wide margin and corn would spike much higher too.............but this is wild speculation.

Leave the speculation to the speculators who make and lose money based on taking on risk. Farmers are interested in taking OFF risk.

The biggest risk in selling beans early is having a drought on your farm in 2021. This can be protected by replacing the sales with calls, if you are comfortable with that strategy.

Then there is crop insurance in case you have a failure. I am not an expert on the rules regarding this protection.

I am just suggesting that you consider locking in some wonderful prices for a small portion of your 2021 crop if/when we get some crazy spikes higher here,  especially beans as the market bids up the price to ration the remaining(short) old crop.

Use the market to maximize your 2021 profits.