La Niña has formed
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Started by metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:32 a.m.

La Niña has formed, and it could worsen hurricanes and wildfires

  • La Niña is a natural climate cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean.
  • La Niña can contribute to an increase in Atlantic hurricane activity.
  • It tends to bring dry weather across portions of California and much of the Southwest.

"La Niña, the cooler sibling of El Niño, has arrived.

And it could provide an additional boost to the already active Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters said, as well as extend the disastrous fire season in the West.

The La Niña climate pattern – a natural cycle marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the central Pacific Ocean – is one of the main drivers of weather in the U.S. and around the world, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring.

Federal government forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced La Niña's formation Thursday. NOAA said this year's La Niña (translated from Spanish as “little girl”) is likely to persist through the winter. It's the opposite pattern of El Niño (little boy), which features warmer-than-average ocean water. "

La Niña Forms: May Bring More Drought, ‘Not A Good Sign’ For Wildfires

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:38 a.m.
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metmike: The news/articles are misleading. 

The atmosphere has been in La Nina mode all Summer!!!

La Nina's don't suddenly form.....................they evolve over months of time.  While they are evolving/developing, the atmosphere takes on a La Nina signature well before(months earlier)  the "official" NOAA declaration of "Hey everybody, we have the official La Nina conditions"

To be an official La Nina, the conditions usually are present for 3 months already.

We told you about this back in May:

                My Summer Forecast/La Nina this Summer!            

                            39 responses |              

                Started by metmike - May 23, 2020, 11:33 p.m.    

The current NATURAL La Nina has been causing the drought out West to be much worse.........ALL SUMMER.  And has greatly contributed to the record number of tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin.

By Jim_M - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:42 a.m.
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You called it!  

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 11:53 a.m.
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Long Range Corner: El Niño or La Niña for the Summer?

March 20, 2020 // Article by: Jim Sullivan

Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Average number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes over the last 10 El Niños and La Niñas


                Tropics August 31, 2020-onward                                                 


                Tropics August 17, 2020    


last 10 El Niño and La Niña events.

Rainfall departures during the summer in the last 10 El Niños, left, and La Niñas, right, courtesy of NOAA and ESRL

Each La Nina is different. The temperature and rainfall patterns downstream are never the same...............just a tendency in certain areas.


     Weather Friday            


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       


Drought Monitor maps:

September 10: We should probably be noting the real drought out West. The Rockies back to OR is the most severe.     

Drought Monitor for conus



By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 2:06 p.m.
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ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

metmike: Blues below -.5 deg. C below are La Nina territory.

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 2:09 p.m.
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Still plenty of sub surface cooler water to keep this La Nina going for awhile. 

This means a likely La Nina Winter!

By metmike - Sept. 11, 2020, 2:22 p.m.
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By bear - Sept. 17, 2020, 3:33 p.m.
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i guess this means winter will be a little drier than normal,  here in the sonoran desert.  

for spring this probably means... less vegetation, less nectar in the weeds, fewer wild swarms, and the bees may end up making a bit less honey.  

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 3:48 p.m.
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"i guess this means winter will be a little less drier in the sonoran desert. " 

Hi bear,

How do you figure this means less drier or was this a mistake?

You live in sw AZ correct?

The anomaly above is warm and dry for you.

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Sonoran Desert
Desierto de Sonora
Saguaro National Park - Flickr - Joe Parks.jpgSaguaro National Park, Arizona
Sonoran Desert map.svgSonoran Desert
CountriesUnited States and Mexico
Borders onMojave Desert (north)
Colorado Plateau (north and east)
Chihuahuan Desert (east)
Peninsular Ranges (west)
Coordinates32.26°N 112.92611
By metmike - Sept. 17, 2020, 3:52 p.m.
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OK, you just fixed it to say a little drier than normal.....thanks!