Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:10 p.m.

Howdy October 21st!  Do something......(say hello to or smile at a stranger) to make somebody feel especially lucky today......... Then think about how lucky you are to be living in this era of plenty in human history!

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of  extra beneficial CO2.

 
Here are the latest hazards across the country.



Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   

 


 Current Weather Map


NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion

 

       
Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps
(Mouseover)

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble





US Weather Current Temperatures Map


US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!

Legend

                                        

                          


Current Jet Stream


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

                    

                    

                    


                                        

Highs today and tomorrow.


   

                                    

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:


Cool shots.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.  Pleasant.


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below


Pretty quiet with high pressure and  chilly air reinforcements.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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Excessive rain potential


Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions

  

Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 16Z 08/30/19 - 12Z 08/31/19

 

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  


  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 08/31/19 - 12Z 09/01/19

 

Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 

 

Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:17 p.m.
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Severe Storm Risk the next 8 days:


Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Grams/Leitman
Issued: 30/1238Z
Valid: 30/1300Z - 31/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0537Z
Valid: 31/1200Z - 01/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Mosier
Issued: 30/0725Z
Valid: 01/1200Z - 02/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

                                    

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/daily

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:19 p.m.
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Current Dew Points


Current Dew Points

                                    

Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                       


 

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop

  


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

                                  

    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

                                    


            

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

                            

Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/palmer.gif

                                    

                                    


By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:20 p.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.

In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of  evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!

Oct. 17: TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT INCREASED  A BIT IN THE LAST WEEK(AGAIN) in the Southeast.


The map below is updated on Thursdays.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/


                                                                

                           

Drought Monitor for conus

                 Drought Monitor for conus


By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:22 p.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z  Canadian ensembles:

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 05, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not available)

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast


NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast producthttps://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f360_nhbg.gif

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:24 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.




https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.



Temperature Probability


6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability


  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

                                    

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 3:54 p.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/temp_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 3:54 p.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 3:55 p.m.
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/wind_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png

By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:44 p.m.
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                Re: Re: Natural Gas October 14, 2019            

           

                By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:05 p.m.            

          

Below is the latest 768 hour European model, picking up where the other models end, at 384 hours, towards the end of the first week in November(5th)....then going out at 24 hour intervals to November 22nd.

Not sure how much the market will pay attention. None at all if we see a big warm up on maps during week 2 for the remainder of this week.


















 


           


By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 8:11 p.m.
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                By wxgrant - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:11 p.m.            

            

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1993 anyone? This is the 240hr Operational Euro which is painting some snow the morning of Halloween. I know it probably won't happen but I love winter weather and I'm glad it's that time of the year where hour 240 is always interesting somewhere :-) . There was a huge cold air outbreak around Halloween 1993. Snowed as far south as Montgomery Alabama that day. 

                                    


            

                

                                                

                Email: gdade@kfvs12.com | IP Address: None                | Cookie ID: None            

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural Gas October 14, 2019            

            

                0 likes            

                            

                By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:42 p.m.            

            

                                Like                Reply            

                            

Thanks Grant!

I remember that one vividly and it was actually the day before Halloween here in Evansville, Oct 30th which was a Saturday.

I went sledding with the kids and we made a snow man in the backyard.


I went Trick or Treating with the kids the next day with the snow on the ground and sub freezing temps.

I'm guessing our snow was just over 6 inches and it was a record for October but will retrieve the records.  

Snow storms have always been my favorite too. When I moved down here in 1982 from Cincinnati(6 months) after living in Michigan, it was thought to be temporary and farther south than I would have preferred because of less snow(but I was going to any tv station that would hire me-including applying at Fairbanks Alaska)

                                    


            +++++++++++++++++++++

                


                By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:55 p.m.            

            

                                Like                Reply            

                            

OK, we got a total  of 4.6 inches from that event, 3.7 inches fell on October 30th(most of which was very early in the morning.

The 3.7 inches is a record for 24 hours in October.


Our record snow for November is 6.9 inches set on the 28th in 1958.

That snow event in 1993 is the biggest snow in the records until the event on Nov 28th almost a month later to show how anomalous the Oct 1993 event was. 

Go to snowfall at the link below

https://www.weather.gov/pah/EvansvilleDailyNormalsAndRecords


Maybe I can retrieve some wx maps of that storm now.































                                    


            +++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                

            

                By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 7:58 p.m.            

            

OK, even better:


                                    


              +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

                By metmike - Oct. 21, 2019, 8:06 p.m.            

            


From The Vault: Halloween snowstorm in Cincinnati in 1993


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzosOgVFQJY


A surprise snowstorm hit the Cincinnati area on the weekend of Oct. 30-31, 1993. When it ended on Sunday, there were 6.2 inches on the ground, marking the first White Halloween on record in the region. The 5.9 inches of snow on Saturday – Halloween Eve -  was a record for a single day in October.  The next day, the coldest high temperature for Halloween - just 36 degrees – kept a lot of trick-or-treaters home.