Richard -- Oil
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Started by wglassfo - May 9, 2019, 1:35 a.m.

Have you or anybody else been paying any attention to Iran and the USA about the Straight of Hormez

Iran is threathening to close the water way if the USA tries to shut down Iran oil exports

supposedly 30% of world oil pass thru that water way

Might see oil go thru the roof [350 Richard??]

By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:07 p.m.
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By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:09 p.m.
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US Threatens Iran With Show Of Force

"The US responded to flare ups in tensions with Iran with Iran’s Special Envoy Brian Hook vowing that any attack against the United States or its allies would be met with a show of force.

Hook assured an unsettled market that it had already factored in Iran’s oil exports falling to zero. Oil prices were up in afternoon trading, with WTI up over 1 percent on the day.

The strong words from the United States came after Iran announced it would no longer be curbing its nuclear program, threatening to go even further, saying it would resume enriching uranium at a higher level if the EU fails to live up to its end of the agreement by continuing Iranian oil purchases.

“In order to secure its rights and restore balance to the demands of the parties to the agreement, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no option other than "reducing commitments",” Rouhani said in a statement."

Iran tensions could drive Brent crude above $80 this summer, strategist says

  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced his country will end compliance with two conditions of its nuclear deal if Europe did not step in to protect it from U.S. sanctions.
  • President Donald Trump ordered new sanctions placed on Iranian metals, Tehran's largest non-petroleum-related sources of export revenue.

By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:11 p.m.
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China’s Oil Imports From Iran Jumped Before U.S. Waivers Ended

China imported  around 800,000 bpd of crude from Iran in April—the highest amount that  Iran’s top oil customer purchased since August last year—as Chinese  refiners rushed to buy Iranian oil ahead of the expiry of the U.S.  sanction waiver at the beginning of May, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing ship tracking data from Refinitiv.

By Richard - May 9, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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I am very much aware of the situation with Iran. Even if we have a full war, I do not see $350 oil on this move. I see $350 going into 2026. I do see a war coming and think we will see a run up to $200-$225 and then all the way back down to $100 so that Trump can try and get re-elected. I am currently long the WTIC Sept $100 Calls, and perhaps a few others. As I stated in pj's post on gold/silver, I purchased 5 Aug silver 16.50 calls TODAY. Without a war, they could go to zero, obviously.  

By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:14 p.m.
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Thanks Richard!

EIA report:

Latest Release  May 08, 2019   Actual-3.963M    Forecast1.215M     Previous9.934M


Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
May 15, 2019 10:30  -3.963M
May 08, 2019 10:30-3.963M1.215M9.934M
May 01, 2019 10:309.900M1.485M5.479M
Apr 24, 2019 10:305.479M1.255M-1.396M
Apr 17, 2019 10:30-1.396M-1.200M7.029M
Apr 10, 2019 10:307.029M2.294M7.238M
By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:21 p.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil.


Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline.


Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast).

By metmike - May 9, 2019, 12:25 p.m.
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Current gas prices:


By metmike - May 11, 2019, 9:59 p.m.
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Physical Oil Market Tightness Pushed Us To Go Long Oil


Brent timespreads are making another high today indicating an even tighter market balance globally.

WTI timespreads are moving lower, however, as refinery outages along the coast impact near-term crude demand.

Brent-WTI spread is widening to $9/bbl indicating US crude exports will average close to ~2.8 mb/d in the coming weeks.

We went long UWT today as the tariffs are now in place, but the market appears to be fixated on the physical shortage near-term.

By wglassfo - May 12, 2019, 1:16 a.m.
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Has anybody been aware the USA oil reserve is contaminated.

3 Co's reported purchases of oil was contaminated

You can goggle the oil contamination story for more info

You will also find info on shale oil not being any good for diesel fuel

Russia seems to be in the cat bird seat

As you goggle you will find the oil biz is very complex