Excessive Rain threat

Michael today. Then S.Plains over the weekend.

Current Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

Current Day 2 Forecast

Day 3 forecast below

Severe Storm Risk.

Michael in the Midatlantic today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook
Current Day 4-8 Outlook

High Temperatures today and Friday

Chill has arrived. Temperatures are 30 deg. F cooler in many places compared to earlier this week!!!!

Highs for days 3-7:

The chilly  air will feature temperatures 30+ degrees colder than recent days along the Ohio River.............and stay chilly thru this particular period.

How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

 The cold has taken over..........but warmth hangs on to the far southeast.

Low Temperature Departures:

Surface features for the same 3-7 day period:

Chilly Canadian high pressure in charge. Reinforcing cold front this weekend, and another one next week. Mostly dry weather as the atmosphere will be dried out. 

Current Dew Points

Higher dew points being shunted southeast. Extremely dry air in the Plains/Midwest is surging southeast.

Latest radar loop.

Quiet except for the East Coast.

Remnants of Michael.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Satellite picture.

We can still see Michael.

Rains the past 24 hours

Michael in the Southeast.

Craig Solberg‏ @CraigSolberg                                              

6-day rainfall totals through 7 AM CDT on October 10, centered on the Kansas City area An area that could not buy a rain all summer gets 6-12" in a six-day time frame...in October

You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

Goodbye summer.....it was a good one.  

Soil moisture anomaly:

Too wet in a large area. Drying has commenced in many areas!!!

The 2nd map gets updated once a week.

Rains compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Note how wet it's been over the past 60 days over eastern 2/3rds of the country!

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

End of week 2....................0Z ensembles from Thursday.  2 camps. One is more of a zonal, west to east flow, mild to warm temperatures. The other one has a ridge west/trough east and would feature chilly temperatures.  Both are dry.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum............changes much less from run to run.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Oct 26, 2018 00 UTC

Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.

Today:  The cold blast is here!.

 Very warm air to the southeast is being scoured out.

In 5+ days:

Cold well entrenched.........except for far southeast.

In 10+ days: Cool air surge has run its course?? Not so fast. Possibility of additional cold shots from ridge west/trough east pattern. Very warm West........how far east will the warmth travel?

Day 15:  Upper level ridge West with warm air. How much upper level troughing will there be downstream with cool air?

The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3-4.

Strong Upper level ridge in Alaska/NW Canada/West Coast. Cool temperatures downstream in the Midwest/East. Similar to the last 2 days.

Very Dry weather in the Midwest to accelerate harvest.........like the last 2 days.

Heating degree days(from cold weather) have replaced cooling degree days(from hot weather) at this time of year.

Check in tomorrow to read something different............."low skill" (-:

Precip below:

National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

Will be updated early this afternoon. Dry pattern!!!!

Temps should be warm West and cool Midwest/East. Not as cool moving from the 6-10 day to the 8-14 day. 

Temperature Probability

Precipitation Probability

the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

Extreme weather days 3-7:

Widespread cold Plains/Midwest..........which is what we traded earlier this week. Yeah, that's snow in W.Kansas.

1 last round of heavy rains TX to TN early in this period. 

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural Gas Thursday            

Natural gas may have been rescued today by a much colder late morning 12z GFS. 

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht	gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick	gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht

Over half of the GFS ensembles support this: