weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:30 a.m.

Welcome to another day, September 15th. Make it a great day! Do something special for somebody to remember today! Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it.

The story continues along the East Coast from Hurricane Florence, with torrential rain that are shifting southwest.

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/12841/


Drying thru the weekend in the Cornbelt has been great but unwelcome rains from Central Plains to Upper Midwest next week.


 The latest rain forecasts are below. Not as extreme in NC/SC because much of the rain has already fallen.

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max!!

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126






http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Excessive rain threat...............off the charts in NC/SC.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:32 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk. Maybe a tornado with Florence.  Hit the map for full screen.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
         
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
     
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:33 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Sunday.   Widespread warmth..........even hot in a few spots. Cool Northwest.


                    

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:34 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7. Widespread warmth, then chilly air invades the north while it stays very warm deep south.

New cold surge Northwest, then Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, then Northeast.



http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We are now 8 weeks past the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

 Well above average.............but average in mid September is not that hot anymore.

Very cool Northwest to N.Plains.



High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif


Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:35 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)!  

More humid air has been returning.


Current Dew Points

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:36 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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Florence is in South Carolina.  Cold front N.Plains. High pressure in between.


 

https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:38 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image.  Florence will continue to steal the show. Radars still show the well defined counterclockwise circulation.............inching slowly westward.



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop


 

Southeast sector loop

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:39 a.m.
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Satellite picture.      

Very well defined Florence in the Carolinas!


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.  Not much................except over a foot along the coast in North Carolina.


By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:41 a.m.
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Too wet in a huge area from massive September rains!

Drier this week, which is minimizing problems to the crops but wet again next week from C.Plains to Upper Midwest. Flooding from Florence is happening and getting worse.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

Bountiful rains for most of the Cornbelt..............and points eastward and westward. This increased yields in August!!!

But September brought too much rain!  Drying out now.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 10:42 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday. Drought has been shrinking but still persists in Texas.........this measure takes into account the long term precip/sub soil moisture and goes back over MANY months.

Top map is this week. Map below it was last week.


            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


Drought Monitor for conusDrought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2018, 7:43 p.m.
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NWS service extended maps for days 6-10, then 8-14. Looking pretty wet in much of the country. Very warm southeast half, chilly northwest 1/4.


Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

 


Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By WxFollower - Sept. 15, 2018, 11:23 p.m.
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 The amazingly warm Sep continues in the SE US, where Atlanta has a high of 95 for the 2nd day in a row. What’s amazing about this is that these 95s are the hottest of the summer so far!

By metmike - Sept. 16, 2018, 1:15 a.m.
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That is amazing Larry!